Control of the NC Senate and House Is At Stake Tomorrow

 

The NC Senate and House races worth watching tomorrow, because redistricting in 2021 completely hinges on the outcomes -- not to mention a shitload of other crucial public policies. I'll be back on Wednesday with results in these races and more.

NC Senate

SD1 -- Democrat Tess Judge attempts to unseat Republican Bob Steinburg.

SD7 -- Democrat Donna Lake challenges Republican Jim Perry, who was appointed to the seat.

SD9 -- Democrat Harper Peterson is running to keep the seat he won in 2018. Republican Mike Lee, who lost in 2018, is running to regain the seat.

SD11 -- Democrat Allen Wellons goes against Republican Lisa Stone Barnes for this open seat.

SD13 -- Democrat Barbara Yates-Lockamy is trying to unseat Republican incumbent Danny Britt.

SD16 -- Democrat Wiley Nickel is defending the seat he won in 2018 against Republican Will Marsh.

SD17 -- Democrat Sam Searcy is defending the seat he won in 2018 against Republican Mark Cavaliero.

SD18 -- Democrat Sarah Crawford is favored against Republican Larry Norman in this redrawn district.

SD19 -- Democrat Kirk deViere is defending the seat he won in 2018 in a rematch with Republican Wesley Meredith.

SD20 -- Democrat Natalie Murdock is favored against Republican John Tarantino for this open seat.

SD24 -- Democrat J.D. Wooten is challenging Republican Amy Galey for this open seat.

Terri LeGrand (SD31)

SD25 -- Democrat Helen Probst Mills is trying again to unseat Republican incumbent Tom McInnis.

SD27 -- Democrat Michael Garrett is defending the seat he won in 2018 against Republican Sebastian King.

SD31 -- Democrat Terri LeGrand is challenging Republican incumbent Joyce Krawiec in this redrawn district.

SD36 -- Democrat Marcus J. Singleton is challenging Republican incumbent Paul Newton.

SD38 -- Democrat Mujtaba Mohammed defends the seat he won in 2018. He's favored to win easily against Republican Jack Brosch.

SD 39 -- Democrat DeAndrea Salvador is heavily favored in Sen. (now US Rep) Dan Bishop's former district, now redrawn. Salvador faces Republican Josh Niday

SD41 -- Democrat Natasha Marcus is defending the seat she won in 2018 against Constitution Party member Christopher Cole. No Republican filed to run.

SD48 -- Democrat Brian Caskey is challenging Republican incumbent Chuck Edwards.

SD 49 -- Democrat Julie Mayfield is favored to replace Sen. Terry van Duyn for this open seat against Republican Bob Penland.

NC House

HD1 -- Democrat Emily Bunch Nicholson is trying to unseat Republican incumbent Ed Goodwin.

HD9 -- Democrat Brian Farkas is trying to unseat Republican Perrin Jones, who was appointed to the seat.

HD12 -- Democrat Virginia Cox-Daugherty is running to unseat Republican incumbent Chris Humphrey.

HD19 -- Democrat Marcia Morgan is running against Republican Charlie Miller for this open seat.

HD20 -- Democrat Adam Ericson is running to unseat Republican incumbent Ted Davis.

HD22 -- Democrat Albert Kirby Jr. is challenging Democrat-turned-Republican incumbent Bill Brisson. 

Ricky Hurtado (HD63)

HD25 -- Democrat James D. Galliard is defending the seat he won in 2018 against Republican John Check.

HD35 -- Democrat Terrence Everitt is defending the seat he won in 2018 against Republican Fred Von Canon.

HD36 -- Democrat Julie von Haefen is defending the seat she won in 2018 against Republican Kim Coley.

HD37 -- Democrat Sydney Batch is defending the seat she won in 2018 against Republican Erin Pare.

HD43 -- Democrat Kimberly Hardy is running against Republican Diane Wheatley for a seat currently held by Democrat Elmer Floyd. Hardy beat Floyd in the March primary.

HD45 -- Democrat Frances Vinell Jackson is challenging Republican incumbent John Szoka.

HD46 -- Democrat Tim Heath is challenging incumbent Republican Brendon Jones. 

HD51 -- Democrat Jason Cain is challenging Republican incumbent John Sauls.

HD53 -- Democrat Sally Weeks Benson is running against Republican Howard Penny Jr. for this open seat, recently vacated by disgraced Republican David Lewis.

HD55 -- Democrat Gloria Harrington Overcash is challenging incumbent Republican Mark Brody. 

HD57 -- Democrat Ashton Clemmons is defending the seat she won in 2018, against Republican Chris Meadows.

HD59 -- Democrat Nicole Quick is challenging Republican incumbent Jon Hardister.

HD63 -- Democrat Ricky Hurtado is challenging Republican incumbent Stephen Ross.

HD72 -- Democrat Amber Baker is heavily favored to win this open seat against Republican Dan Lawlor.

Aimy Steele (HD82)

HD74 -- Democrat Dan Besse is running against Republican Jeff Zenger for this open seat.

HD82 -- Democrat Aimy Steele is running against Republican Kristin Baker for this open seat.

HD83 -- Democrat Gail Young is challenging Republican incumbent Larry Pittman.

HD93 -- Democrat Ray Russell is defending the seat he won in 2018 against Republican Ray Pickett.

HD98 -- Democrat Christy Clark is defending the seat she won in 2018 against Republican John Bradford in a rematch.

HD103 -- Democrat Rachel Hunt is defending the seat she won in 2018 against Republican Bill Brawley in a rematch.

HD104 -- Democrat Brandon Lofton is defending the seat he won in 2018 against Republican Don Pomeroy.

HD105 -- Democrat Wesley Harris is defending the seat he won in 2018 against Republican Amy Bynum.

HD113 -- Democrat Sam Edney is challenging Republican incumbent Jake Johnson.

HD117 -- Democrat Josh Remillard is challenging Republican Tim Moffitt for this open seat. 

HD119 -- Democrat Joe Sam Queen is defending the seat he won in 2018 against Republican Mike Clampitt in a rematch.

 

Another Sterling Example of Video Advertising

In my quest to be infinitely entertained by good candidate introductory videos, I stumbled onto Minnesoootan Dan Feehan by way of this paragraph in a WashPost article:

In Minnesota’s 1st Congressional District — which borders South Dakota, includes a large rural population, and went for Trump by 15 points in 2016 — Democrats are outspending GOP incumbent Jim Hagedorn, $2.7 million to $1.8 million. Candidate Dan Feehan, a former Army ranger in Iraq and onetime public school teacher, almost defeated Hagedorn two years ago, coming up 1,300 votes short. Now he’s trying again.

So I hastened to his campaign website and found this absolutely first-rate introductory video. How can you not relate to this guy and instantly like him? (Whoever thought of the unifying device of a covered dish supper needs to get a bonus. And the corny bits of Minnesota humor warm my cold, cold heart.) I'm especially gratified that Feehan doesn't just introduce himself but also draws a stilleto-sharp contrast to the incumbent, jowly Jim Hagedorn, who could be a poster-child for "Retire This Corrupt Politician."

Watch it: 

Long Lines Everywhere in North Carolina for First Morning of Early Voting

 

All Eyes on These Democrats in NC's "Bellwether County," New Hanover

 

In 2016 Watauga County was designated a "bellwether county" -- one of ten across the nation in that year's battleground states -- because Watauga's political history suggested we more often than not voted for the eventual winner of the presidential race. D'oh. We lost our status in 2016 because Watauga went roguishly for Hillary instead of for the winner, Twitterman. 

So much for an alpha sheep decked with a bell who leads the other sheep.

But we're delighted to see New Hanover County listed again as a bellwether county. Not its first time. The Associated Press named it a bellwether in 2016, along with Watauga: "New Hanover County was chosen because Republicans and Democrats are split almost evenly in Wilmington and the surrounding area, and the number of independents registered here has risen so much since the last presidential election that they now outnumber both parties."

Now for 2020, New Hanover gets the honor again in a list compiled by Dave Wasserman, House editor at the Cook Political Report. The New York Times published it as "opinion," and it's pretty damn interesting. Haven't investigated all the other counties on the new list -- I'll get around to them -- but New Hanover rises in the east today like the sun, and I can't take any more light at the moment. Several men and women from New Hanover, either already in the General Assembly (some flipped their seats in 2018), or are trying to get there, fill my eyeballs today -- the potential and the odds for Democrats' taking back the General Assembly in 2020. 

Here's a primer:

NC House Districts

Dist. 18 -- Deb Butler (incumbent Democrat), one of the most famous progressive warriors in the General Assembly, challenged by Republican Warren Kennedy. Bitzer rates the district "Safe Democratic."

 

Dist. 19 (only part of New Hanover, with a larger slice of New Brunswick to the south-- problematic for a Democratic win minus a Blue Wave) -- Open seat. Democrat Marcia Morgan is being challenged by Republican Charlie Miller. Quoting myself from January of this year:

Morgan is a 74-year-old Baby Boomer born in 1946. She was an educator, became a career Army officer who retired as a colonel. She taught ROTC and did two tours at the Pentagon including a staff position with the Army Chief of Staff. She says, "I have thoroughly enjoyed retirement and the freedom to do as I please, but the current political environment has challenged me to step forward once again. I do not have a background in politics, but I DO have a strong sense of service to this community and a demonstrated ability to accomplish difficult tasks. I believe we have a commitment to improve our economy, provide equal opportunities for all and protect our environment – and one of the fundamental ways to accomplish those things is through quality education." She details her career, which took her all over the world for the Army, on her website.

Morgan has been endorsed by Lillian's List. She came within 883 votes of beating Ted Davis in 2018 in the old District 19. The last fundraising report I've seen suggested a good effort on her part for 2020.

 

 

Dist. 20 -- Ted Davis, incumbent Republican, formerly in the 19th but drawn out of that district and into Holly Grange's district. The double-bunking of incumbent Republicans was certainly part of Holly Grange's decision to opt out of reelection and run for governor against Dan Forest instead (a remarkably empty gesture in today's NCGOP). Democrat Adam Ericson, a public high school teacher, is challenging Davis. FlipNC.org analysis of the prospect: "Gov. Cooper lost the newly constituted NC-H20 by just 5 points in 2016, and the NC House race was just as close in 2018. The pool of left-leaning voters who stayed home in NC-H20 in 2018 was about 14 points more left-leaning than the folks who came out to the polls, and the great news is that 2020 primary turnout was up 30% over 2016!"

 

NC Senate

Dist. 9 -- Harper Peterson (incumbent Democrat: elected 2018), challenged by Republican attorney Mike Lee. Rated a "Toss Up" by Bitzer. Peterson beat Lee in 2018, so this is a rematch. Fundraising on both sides has been eye-popping, though Lee was edging Peterson slightly in the $$ race the last time I looked. Peterson is a former mayor of Wilmington and has been very visible in the controversy surrounding the pollution of the Cape Fear River.

 

U.S. House

Dist. 7 -- David Rouzer, incumbent Republican, challenged by Democrat Christopher Ward. Considered a safe Republican district because of all that rural real estate north of Wilmington, Republican counties stretching all the way to Johnston County just south of Wake.

https://www.chriswardforcongress.com

Al Gross of Alaska, The Left-Leaning Independent Who Killed a Grizzly

Some liberals are going to hate this photo because of its echoes of the Trump progeny posing with large African trophies. Photo ops with large dead animals that were killed for sport have become anathema in many quarters. But in this Alaskan case, candidate for US Senate Al Gross shot the bear in self defense. It was charging him and another hunter in an apparent ambush attack. Which produced an Alaska Department of Public Safety investigation and report.

I felt the need to know more about Al Gross after The Cook Report moved the race from "Solid Republican" to "Likely Republican," and national media began to pay attention to the left-leaning independent whose current polling suggests the possibility of a sleeper win in one of the most Republican states in the Union. Gross is running against one-term Republican Dan Sullivan, who's a transplant from Ohio and who has failed to establish much of a profile through his six years in office (except that he's a loyal Trumpist).

Who Is Al Gross?

He grew up in a Democratic household. His father, Avrum Gross, was the Democratic Attorney General of Alaska and is still remembered apparently as one of the best. At the age of 14, Al bought himself a commercial fishing boat and went whole-hog into commercial fishing through his teens and into his 20s, earning himself the bankroll that it cost to put himself through college and then medical school. He became an orthopedic surgeon, married a pediatric doctor, and opened his practice in Juneau.

Here's his introductory video biography:

After almost 20 years in private practice, Al and his wife, "discouraged by how high health care costs were affecting Alaskan individuals, small businesses, and the Alaskan economy in general," took the unusual step of closing their practices to return to school for degrees in public health. Al has subsequently become an advocate for a public healthcare option to give Alaskans the choice to buy less expensive insurance through the healthcare exchange. He's also been an outspoken critic of the Trump administration's mishandling of the coronavirus epidemic.

I've been studying Al Gross's platform on his campaign website, and I find nothing that a registered progressive Democrat wouldn't agree with. Why he isn't running as a Democrat is explained by the demographics of "a little bit weird" Alaska: "Of its 585,000 registered voters, 58 percent are listed as 'nonpartisan' or 'undeclared.' Twenty-four percent, meanwhile, are registered Republicans, and only 13 percent are registered Democrats. Deep-red Wyoming has more Democrats...."

There's also an independent, Alyse Galvin, running for Alaska's single seat in the US House against long-time incumbent Republican Don Young, and she's doing quite well in polling. Al Gross and Alyse Galvin together present an enticing prospect of a major shift in Alaska, if the Blue Wave crashes with tsunami strength.

How Big the Blue Wave in the US Senate 2020?

We're about to have some political accountability delivered to the party holding the White House and strangling the Senate. Maybe a ton of accountability for the incompetence and malfeasance that allowed the coronavirus pandemic to kill 200K (and still climbing).

Here's the list of vulnerable, incumbent Republican senators who could, according to polling and the surge of new voters who haven't always voted in the past, lose their seats on November 3rd. All of their losing would constitute a Democratic blow-out and give the Dems at least a 57-43 advantage.

They're listed here in the order of their vulnerability:

Arizona -- Incumbent Republican Sen. Martha McSally is well behind her Democratic rival, Mark Kelly, whom we headlined here back in July of this year. Cook's moved the race to "Lean Democrat."

Colorado -- Incumbent Republican Sen. Cory Gardner felt the earth move (not in a good way) when Cook moved this race to "Lean Democrat." The Democrat in question, former Governor John Hickenlooper, seems to have this sewn up. (We profiled him back in January of 2019.)

Maine -- Incumbent Republican Sen. Susan Collins has been pretty consistently trailing her Democratic rival Sara Gideon (pictured on the right). (We profiled her back before she won the Democratic primary.) Cook's rates the race a "Toss Up."

North Carolina -- Incumbent Republican Sen. Thom Tillis has been in a polling hole all year, with Democrat Cal Cunningham coming on strong and raising big money. We've profiled Cunningham many times, going back to late November 2018; June of 2019; September 2019 ("The Danger of Democratic McCreadyism"); and June 2020. Then came the trysting texts with a woman not his wife indicating a lapse of judgment. So who the hell knows where this race stands at the moment? Prior to the texting scandal, Cook's rated the race a "Toss Up."

Montana -- Republican incumbent Sen. Steve Daines is up against Democratic Governor Steve Bullock (really up against it!) in a race that moved to "Toss Up" as soon as Bullock declared his candidacy (on the last filing day). I haven't profiled Bullock at all, but he's a "moderate."

Iowa -- Incumbent Republican Sen. Joni Ernst woke up one morning and discovered that she's in real peril from the surging campaign of Democrat Theresa Greenfield (whom we profiled first in August 2019 because of her excellent introductory video; then a second time this past June). Cook's rates it "Toss Up."

Georgia -- Surprisingly, incumbent Republican Sen. David "Sonny" Perdue has also found himself in a "Toss Up" with Democrat Jon Ossoff, in whom I have little faith after he lost the special election for a Georgia US House seat in 2017. Ossoff sometimes comes off like a candidate created in a laboratory. 

Georgia -- Georgia has the unique distinction of being primed to replace both of their incumbent Republican senators. This second race is really a "jungle primary" to replace the retired Johnny Isakson. The run-off between the two top finishers on November 3rd will take place on January 5, 2021. Incumbent Republican Sen. Kelly Loeffler (appointed by the governor to fill out Isakson's term) has both a strong Republican rival in Congressman Doug Collins and a credible Democratic challenger in Rev. Raphael Warnock, whom we profiled on August 20th. Almost unbelieveably (it's freakin' Georgia, y'all!), Warnock has been leading both Republicans in some polling. Cook's rates the race "Lean Republican," though we're willing to believe in miracles.

South Carolina -- Incumbent Republican Sen. Lindsey O. Graham is having his own fright-night, threatened by another black candidate, Democrat Jaime Harrison (whom we profiled here). Cook moved the race from "Of Course Lindsey Graham Will Win Reelection" to "Lean Republican," to show just how squishy Graham's support has become. He won't be missed.

Kansas -- It's an open seat following the retirement of Republican Sen. Pat Roberts. Democrat Barbara Bollier (who was a registered Republican until December 2018) is facing Republican Roger Marshall. Looks like the polling has veered all over the place, so who knows? Cook's rates it "Lean Republican." But there have been signs (the flipping of CD 3 by Democrat Sharice Davids in 2018) that previously set-in-Republican-concrete Kansas is loosening up.

Alaska -- Incumbent Republican Sen. Dan Sullivan is being challenged not by a Democrat but by an independent, orthopedic surgeon Al Gross, who'd likely caucus with the Democrats. The most recent polling I've seen has Sullivan at 46% and Gross at 45%, and Alaska has past history of electing independents over nominal Republicans (Lisa Murkowski). Cook's still has the race at "Likely Republican."

Texas -- Incumbent Republican Sen. John Cornyn was once upon a time considered pretty vulnerable to a strong Democratic candidate in a watershed year like 2020 is likely to be, but is Democratic challenger M.J. Hegar that candidate? Dunno. I loved her fighting spirit when she ran for the US House against an entrenched Republican incumbent in 2018, but she went through a debilitating Democratic primary to cement her spot in this fight, and I'm hearing a lot of poor-mouthing from friends in Texas. Cook's rates it "Likely Republican," which seems about right.

Mississippi -- Incumbent Republican Cindy Hyde-Smith suddenly has a race on her hands from Democrat Mike Espy, who has surged in recent polling to 40% to Hyde-Smith's 41% (still a lot of undecideds). Espy was formerly Mississippi's first black congressman since Reconstruction and Secretary of Agriculture under President Bill Clinton. He is currently and since 2008 an attorney with the mega-firm Morgan and Morgan in Jackson, Miss., and also runs his own consulting firm specializing in governmental relations, rural development, food and nutrition, and international agricultural development issues. Cook's is not sanguine about Espy's chances; they rate it "Solid Republican." But would it not be something beyond imagining if Black Democrats in Georgia (Warnock), South Carolina (Harrison), and Mississippi (Espy) took out Republican incumbents in a truly massive Blue Wave?

 

Below: Mike Espy in Mississippi. Does he really have a shot at taking out an incumbent Republican senator: 

Trump Depression. It's a Thing

 

I don't know what gets you down. If the daily dose of this guy Trump doesn't smite your cheeks, then you might be a fan and revel in the cruelty.

But depression? I've always worked jobs to vaccinate myself against it. Getting something done that needs doing, that's the ticket. But you get old and infirm and hunkered down to body blows and can't work in your garden, so you spend entirely too much time on screens. And because you're susceptible to hard news ("fake" to the fans), you absorb every new breach of ethics and morality and basic humanity like hammer blows, and because there is no chance that Trump can ever repent and become human, you slip a little into a spiritual malaise of your own making, a black hole. Why has god abandoned us?

Do you feel powerless, except for your vote? Your vote, which until this guy Trump came along seemed an inviolable right. Now it's endangered too. I've voted absentee by mail for several elections and have already sent in my ballot for 2020, and now I'm told by the authoritarian that he can probably eliminate my absentee ballot too and have his judges declare him a winner. 

As of today we have these stats on mail-in balloting in NC:

Absentee by-mail ballots cast in NC so far: 198,130

Absentee by-mail ballots cast in 2016 presidential election: 199,775

Absentee by-mail requests so far in 2020: 1,002,874

Bottomline: We're about to surpass absentee balloting in 2016, and there are still over 800,000 absentee ballots still out there and still waiting to be marked and delivered.

The developments of just the last 48 hours could reduce you to a pulp of impotent outrage (what a name for a oom-pah band!). 

“Well, we’re going to have to see what happens. You know that I’ve been complaining very strongly about the ballots and the ballots are a disaster — .... Get rid of the ballots, and you’ll have a very — we’ll have a very peaceful trans-, there won’t be a transfer, frankly. There’ll be a continuation.”

“I think this will end up in the Supreme Court. And I think it’s very important that we have nine justices,” Trump said. “It’s better if you go before the election, because I think this, this scam that the Democrats are pulling — it’s a scam — the scam will be before the United States Supreme Court. And I think having a 4-4 situation is not a good situation.”

Rachel Maddow said last night that what we're going to do about this crisis is what we're doing right now, a penetrating and sobering insight. If we're sitting on the couch watching Netflix and worrying, that doesn't bode well for how we'll go into the looming constitutional crisis of 2021. We've got to stop giving in to hopelessness and do what we can. It's more than just believing in the resistance. We have to do, we have to stay aware, we have to contribute what we can or do what we must -- give money, make phone calls, knock doors, write letters, publish editorials, do the oppo research and keep our powder dry. Activism ain't depressed. It may be spooked by the whiff of Armageddon -- the effective end of the Republic -- but it doesn't lose sight of what's good: North Carolina boards of elections count the absentee-by-mail ballots first.

Don't let Trump depression warp the reality that there are signs of restoration all around us, from the flight from Trump by former Republican loyalists, to the flush of former military men running as liberal Democrats (documented on this site for months), to the wave theory of special elections in 2017 and the 2018 midterms, to the consistent polling showing advantage Democrats (the wave continues and grows). Our own good signs are evil omens for the other side, so I shouldn't wonder about a growing depression not in us but in the traditional rural Republicans all around us, whose own humbleness and religious faith and reverence for the law makes the embarrassing Mr. Trump a discouragement to civic activity, and the thought of actually defending him a hard option.

C.J. Cregg, You Rock Me

 

C.J. Cregg, played by Allison Janney

So we started watching "The West Wing" -- from the pilot episode, on -- to check our memories that it was the best TV of all time. Netflix obliged us. That old show -- which premiered in 1999 on NBC in the waning days of Bill Clinton's misadventures in Mugstomp-on-the-Potomac -- looks to me now like evergreen commentary on guts versus compromise and a culturally significant artifact from the sundowning of American liberalism. 

I don't believe I found the show until well into its 1st season of 22 episodes, in the late fall of 1999, as the buzz about it spread. I remember Stockard Channing vividly as Abigail Bartlet, but she didn't appear as a character until about four episodes into the run. So the earliest eps are new to me, but the whole production has made me laugh out loud, and moved me to tears, and reminded me of our naive hopes and unrealized fears about a president who is actually a good person. Cheating on his wife would never happen, nor cheating period. 

I try to remember what we were up to back when "The West Wing" captured our imaginations. We had recently been involved in the painful resurrection of a Democratic Party in our local county. Old Guard Democrats were not amused that we had organized insurgents in almost all 20 precincts and took control of the party at the 1997 county convention. Which split the party. Which took time to heal (and may not in fact be fully healed even yet). 

The new guys were activists and organizers, "liberals" in the parlance of the day. Bright-eyed optimists and pushy reformers who wanted to change stuff. They easily earned the resentment and opposition from a conservative old guard. But the new party -- better organized with each passing month -- nevertheless won two seats on the local county commission in 1998, and with the election of a third Democrat, very much an old guard type who eventually admitted that he was really a Republican and switched parties -- Democrats had taken control of county government for the first time in years. "Control," so to speak because while liberals ran the Party, conservatives ran the County Commission and were rooted among the business elite. During the election campaigns of 2000, the old guard actually opened its own rival "Democratic Party HDQs" and entertained its own constituency, especially among the legal community and various business interests. 

I had sort of forgotten that "The West Wing" was really about those same tectonic pressures and the strains and failures that can follow. President Josiah ("Jed") Bartlet's flaw is his hesitance, a caution about acting on his beliefs, and the great dramatic conflict of the first season seesaws between a desirable liberal menu of high-minded cultural causes, and the iron maiden of compromise ("betrayal"). The greatest threats to the stability of the universe is said to be the liberals who are too radical, refusing under any circumstances to compromise. The frustrations of the president's idealistic staff, that even with a liberal Democrat as president, liberals are always always forced to compromise away the marrow of their beliefs. But finally, in the episode titled "Let Bartlet Be Bartlet," number 19 of 22, the president and his chief of staff decide to stop the habit of pussyfooting and to make the appointments they want to, rather than the ones the party honchos in the Senate want. They gird for battle, the promised retaliation by a Congress in the hands of the opposition. You feel your pulse quicken when fictional characters take out the sword and throw away the scabbard.

C.J. Cregg, played by wonderful flamingo Allison Janney, provides stunningly fresh commentary from two decades ago on what a presidential Press Secretary ought not to be, a lying co-conspirator in a criminal enterprise. C.J. Cregg suffers torment when she inadvertently cites the law wrong on appointees to the Federal Election Commission -- an honest error of not reading the briefing paper -- and she agonizes like a repentant sinner in the hands of an angry God, even going to the president for forgiveness for something so inconsequential. She intends always to be accurate, to be honest, and anyone causing her to utter untruths in the daily briefing is in for hellfire. She has a powerful moral compass and can blast the president himself to stay out of something he has no business sticking his nose into. She's a rock and funny to boot. A sense of humor about herself, and honesty -- a combo missing from our world.

The Way the Pendulum Swings in North Carolina

 

Am I going to read an article titled "Suburban Women Hold the Balance of Power in the Swingiest of Swing States" (meaning, yes, North Carolina)? You bet I am!

It opens with this profile of "a decisive voter," meaning a voter who hasn't decided yet but whose vote, once they do decide, will be decisive: 

She’s white, college-educated, unaffiliated and moved to a close-in suburb of Charlotte or Raleigh in the last decade or two — and as Election Day looms, she’s still making up her mind.

Some vital stats:

...of the 7,040,308 registered voters as of last month, 36 percent are Democrats and 30 percent are Republicans, but an ascendant 33 percent are unaffiliated — the fastest-growing group, clustered in the fastest-growing suburbs. And of that 33 percent, [Paul] Shumaker, a Tillis consultant, wrote in a recent memo to donors, 30 percent are “behavioral Republicans,” 30 percent are “behavioral Democrats,” and the remaining 40 percent are “pure swing voters.” These, both sides agree, are the voters that are most up for grabs — in the places that are most up for grabs.

One of those places most up for grabs? According to US Senate candidate Cal Cunningham, it's definitely “the urban ring around Charlotte.” Said Cal, “That is going to decide probably the presidential race and possibly the outcome of the United States Senate. And it’s ground zero for a marquee governor’s race.”

Good to know. We've been following several General Assembly races in Cabarrus County, part of that "urban ring around Charlotte," and we like the image of a confluence of irresistible forces there.

Republican operatives are thinking Trump can scare those suburban women into voting for him because antifa! ... BLM! ... invasive species threatening the suburbs! Democratic operatives are convinced that suburban women are not idiots -- they know who's been stirring the trouble and for what ends.

Photo of the Year

 

Meanwhile, at the bottom of Lake Travis...

Trump Bombshell Dropped on the Military: Will It Matter to the Congressional Race in NC-8?

 

The American military was already backing away from Trump -- carefully, to be sure (discussed more below) -- even before his contempt for military sacrifice became a bombshell revelation yesterday.

I immediately wondered how that totally credible news of Trump's betrayal would affect the Democratic insurgency of Patricia Timmons-Goodson down in the 8th Congressional District. She's from Fayetteville, in Cumberland County, which just happens to hold two large military parks: the US Army at Fort Bragg and the US Air Force at Pope, meaning, in short, that the military vote in Cumberland County could be a wildcard heavy thumb on the political scales of 2020. Being pissed at what Trump said could sway the election toward the Democrat. But are they pissed?

(NOTE: Used to be, in the old 8th district, only the northern, more rural parts of Cumberland were included, but that already included Fort Bragg and Pope. The new 8th adds all of Cumberland, including more urbanized and liberal Fayetteville. Which makes the 8th lean slightly more Democratic, though it's still stubbornly labeled "Lean Republican" by the Cook Report.)

I've been surfing this a.m. for any answer to how Trump is playing there this weekend. Can't find a thing specific to the populations of Bragg and Pope, and the Fayetteville Observer gives me nothing. What I did run into was background on how the military decided to ban all displays of Confederate battle flags without triggering Trump's wrath (he has very forcefully defended everything Confederate). Because Trump's also notorious for not reading, the Pentagon's order cleverly buried their ban by not using the word ban, nor the word Confederate, and by making their policy order sound wholly positive, not negative. Defense Secretary Mark Esper signed the order on Thursday night, listing all that's allowed, and so much is allowed (U.S. and state banners, flags of other allies and partners, the widely displayed POW/MIA flag, and official military unit flags). The Confederate flag is not listed. Oops. But it would take reading to understand what just happened. The Pentagon's wording was "a creative way to bar the flag’s display without openly contradicting or angering President Donald Trump" (Lolita C. Baldor, AP).

That significant attempt to deceive the Commander in Chief is what I was referring to in the lead graph above: "Military, backing away from Trump already," even before he characterized their sacrifice as sucker-hood. Not to put too fine a point on it, the freshest and most promising new federal Democratic candidates since 2016 have tended to be former military men and women. I'm not going to list them here now. Take my word for it: the new Democratic star is likely former military, fed up with Donald Trump. I've profiled a bunch of them here since 2017, in many different states.

Timmons-Goodson is a distinguished lawyer and jurist, with 30 years experience including a seat on the NC Supreme Court and nomination by Barack Obama to the US 4th Circuit. She's massively accomplished and Black. The "new 8th" still contains plenty of the "old 8th," the conservative White counties of Harnett, Moore, Montgomery, and Stanly. A Black woman in the race complicates the Deep South metrics -- the incumbent Republican is a White man, Richard Hudson, who's supposedly more moderate than most of his brethren. But her candidacy maybe also liberates a different voting bloc that hasn't been participating up to their potential. The new 8th is about 1/4th Black. It's more heavily urban in the far east -- Cumberland -- and also the far west, Cabarrus (with its big city of Concord), which is increasingly a suburb of Charlotte and where there are several other strong Democrats making energetic runs for the General Assembly. They all mutually benefit one another.

I have no -- zero -- information nor insight about how Trump's words are playing among the active duty in Cumberland County, just curiosity to know. Not just the active duty personnel but also the retired military community, which I've been led to believe is substantial. The military has always been considered a part of the Republican base, hasn't it? Trump's been reportedly popular with the troops, and he's certainly courted their approval, which just makes his reported opinions about the Service all the more a betrayal.

Can a Democratic Insurgent Win the Montana US House At-Large Seat?

Why is the Montana At-Large Congressional seat in play? The Cook Political Report has it at "lean Republican" (R+11), but it's an open seat. The Republican who won a special election there in 2017, Greg Gianforte, and who then promptly beat up a reporter from The Guardian and was convicted of misdemeanor assault, has moved on to run for Montana governor (and maybe beat up a different reportorial demographic). 

The Republican on the ballot there this November, Matt Rosendale, won a crowded congressional primary. He has considerable public service to his credit, including one term each in the Montana House and Senate and a term as Montana's auditor. But he also trails a string of high-profile electoral defeats. He was beaten in the 2018 senatorial campaign by incumbent Democrat Jon Tester. In 2014, he ran for the Montana At Large House seat in the Republican primary and came in third. He's very familiar to Montana voters, which in some cases may hurt as much as it helps.

A bigger reason the Montana race is being watched for a possible red-to-blue flip is the overall erosion in the Trumpist Party as both voters and office-holders have grown weary of the Twitterman chaos:

Of the 241 House Republicans in office when Trump was inaugurated in 2017, only 126 (52 percent) are still running for reelection this fall. Incoming GOP members have run on a primary theme of fealty to Trump, with a few exceptions — such as Peter Meijer (MI-03), a self-funder who has run on his military service and barely mentions the president.

--David Wasserman and Amy Walter, Cook Political Report

Republican Matt Rosendale, who looks old and whose TV spots don't do a thing to dispel that image, is highlighting Donald Trump's endorsement as boilerplate, but as with every other public hugging of Trump by a Republican candidate in this plague year, we have to wonder how much it helps or hurts, even in Montana.

Democrat Kathleen Williams

She's clearly running as a "moderate," but she "fits" Montana and she doesn't strike me as someone who's gonna go DINO on us (I'll be permanently deleting this post if she does). She also has a long record of public service. She served multiple terms in the Montana House, and she ran against incumbent Greg Gianforte in 2018, coming within 4.7 percentage points of beating him. I don't know what her TV spots in 2018 looked like, but I find her not just feisty but appealingly feisty in 2020 (although I do flinch a little that she admits voting for Reagan -- does that look like pandering in Montana?):

Here's her most recent 30-second spot. She's selling character -- that feistiness again! -- and she certainly offers a compelling contrast to the Trump-hugging Rosendale.

The New Democrat Action Fund, which is supporting more centrist Democrats, especially those running in previously red districts, has named Kathleen Williams as a "race to watch."  Okay. You've got our attention. (It can't hurt Williams' chances that the popular Governor Steve Bullock is at the head of the Democratic ticket, running for the US Senate.)

Dr. Cameron Webb, a Stand-Out To Flip a US House Seat in VA

I've paid attention to first-time Democratic candidates in our state and in the two states that flank us, north and south. Several of them won their seats 2 years ago. They, and the new young and not-entirely-young Federal candidates of 2020 elevate my spirit -- a pool of talent that's brimming, not drying up. (For the Talent Pool Census, you should add in all the first-time Democratic candidates for NC House and Senate that I've been nattering about all year long. For Federal office:

North Carolina

    Deborah Ross, in the 2nd CD 

    Kathy Manning, in the 6th CD

    Patricia Timmons-Goodson, in the 8th CD

    Cynthia Wallace, in the 9th CD

    Moe Davis, in the 11th CD

    Cal Cunningham, for US Senate 

South Carolina

Joe Cunningham, in the 1st CD

Adair Boroughs, in the 2nd CD

Moe Brown, in the 5th CD

Jaime Harrison, for US Senate

Virginia

Elaine Luria, in the 2nd CD

Cameron Webb, in the 5th CD

Abigail Spanberger, in the 7th CD

Jennifer Wexton, in the 10th CD

I check in on these folks sporadically, trolling for video usually, as I do appreciate production values. Tickled to find this new introduction to Cameron Webb up in the 5th District of Virginia. Way back in the spring, he shared a headline here after his surprise (and out-sized) primary win in the 5th District of Virginia: "The Wow Factor".

I don't know who produced this, but it's good. Highlights a detail for me that sticks because it illuminates character -- that Webb actually served out the end of his White House Fellowship in the  Trump administration and found a way to stick with it, despite the Trump animus toward a hold-over Obama admin advisor. He says they treated him with suspicion, moved his desk into the hall and then took it away altogether, yet when the White House staff was blind-sided by a presidential tweet promising lower drug prices, and because Cameron Webb was there as a medical doctor with valuable experience (not to mention a law degree), they actually asked his advice, and he was able to ameliorate some early Trump admin moves on health care.

Cook Political Report rates the 5th CD of Virginia as "Lean Republican," R + 6. That's an improvement over their earlier "Safe Republican." R + 6 ain't insurmountable, not in a wave year. The 5th is an open seat, after all, and the Republican blow-hard running for it -- a dude ironically named Bob Good -- decided that of all the issues he needed to run on and needed to win with in 2020, gender identity rose right to the top, like a turd full of fiber. He's kind of a bully, especially the way he trashed the incumbent Republican to win his primary. That same specter of bullying the weak that turned so many suburban Republican women against Trump could mean trouble for Good in the suburban sprawl around Charlottesville.

So, yeah, "lean Republican," like a willow leans.

Next Door in Georgia, Both US Senate Seats Are On the Ballot; One Probably Won't Be Settled Until January 2021

 

Sometimes Georgia just confuses the hell out of us!

One US Senate seat in Georgia will be settled on November 3rd, the fate of incumbent Republican David Perdue, who's running for another term against Democrat Jon Ossoff. You may remember Jon Ossoff from a special Georgia election in the 6th CD in 2017, which he lost. We're expecting him to do better this year.

The other US Senate seat in Georgia that's on the November ballot is currently held by Republican hair-model Kelly Loeffler, who was appointed to the seat in January of this year to replace the ailing Johnny Isakson. The November ballot for this seat is actually a primary ballot, because everyone from all parties runs together and if no one gets to 50 percent of the vote -- which seems highly likely, considering there are over 20 candidates -- then the run-off will decide the winner next January.

Kelly Loeffler is often described as the richest member of the Senate, which is saying something. She's a former Wall Street type executive, is married to the president of the Wall Street Stock Exchange, and attracted some attention lately for dumping millions in stock after receiving privileged briefings about the coming COVID catastrophe. She's been let off the hook, apparently, for any wrong-doing, while NC Senator Richard Burr is not off the hook for the same accusation.

The last polling I saw had Loeffler trailing slightly her biggest Republican challenger, Doug Collins, the snarling Trumpist attack dog on the House Judiciary Committee. Frankly, it's entirely possible that the top two finishers in this primary could both be Republicans, though we have high hopes for at least one Democrat making it to the January run-off.

There are at least eight Democrats on the ballot, but the front-runner is generally conceded to be Reverend Raphael Warnock, the pastor of famous Ebernezer Baptist Church in Atlanta. His introductory video biography is polished and compelling:

Warnock turned heads when he posted the highest First Quarter fundraising numbers of any candidate.  He has the support of the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee (DSCC) and of powerhouse Georgia Democrat Stacey Abrams.

Another Possible Upset Candidate -- Marcus Singleton (SD36)

 

I've been pawing through the NC House and Senate districts that Trump won in 2016 where he took less than 60 percent of the vote. The 48th Senate District down in Transylvania, Henderson, and the southermost part of Buncombe fit that description, and I wrote about Democrat Brian Caskey running in that district and the boost he may get from a couple of other Democrats running in overlapping NC House districts.

Then I found Democrat Marcus Singleton running in SD36 (Cabarrus County and a little of Union; Concord is the principal city). Marcus is a United Methodist Church minister, a graduate of the divinity program at Howard University with a master's in counseling from Bowie State in Maryland. He pastors Aldersgate United Methodist Church in Charlotte. He posted a lengthy statement about the death of George Floyd and the importance of the Black Lives Matter movement, which said in part:

The inability of politicians and leaders to identify with the pain and suffering of everyday people is commonplace from every sphere of political leadership, nationally to locally....

We have too many elected leaders who have neither the willingness to work across the aisle nor the willingness to know and experience the pain of the people to whom they have been elected to serve. One of my hopes as we continue to grieve Mr. Floyd’s death is - we as citizens - we as an electorate recognize the importance of diversity in political leadership.

Senate District 36 was most recently rated "Likely Republican" by Michael Bitzer and associates. Trump took 59.53 percent of the vote in 2016, but Democrats (29 percent) and Unaffiliated (34 percent) together out-number Republicans (36 percent), and I'm persuaded that there's a big untapped and disengaged voter pool that could get motivated and then animated and overcome that 10-point disadvantage (especially if the Republican electorate is depressed). Blacks make up 18 percent of the voters.

There's an overlapping boosting effect that could come from two very active and promising NC House candidates whose districts include large parts of Cabarrus -- Democrat Gail Young in HD83 and Democrat Aimy Steele in HD82, both of which have been on most lists of "races to watch" all year. Singleton, Young, and Steele could support and nurture each other's campaigns, especially if they've got healthy new-voter registration drives underway.

The three of them showed up together back in January at Martin Luther King Jr. Day observations in Concord. Interestingly, so did incumbent Republican House member Larry Pittman, who is being challenged by Gail Young in HD83 this November.

Martin Luther King Jr. Day in Concord, January 2020.
Marcus Singleton, center, in purple shirt.
Larry Pittman, holding the microphone.
Aimy Steele and Gail Young, far right.
Photo by Marty Price in the Independent Tribune

Rep. Pittman's attendance is perhaps not entirely surprising. (Can you spell chutzpah?) He is after all a politician running for reelection. But he's probably not fooling anyone. He's also known for hanging with a neo-Confederacy group. Pittman introduced a bill that would have removed the ban on secession from the state constitution, and he drew widespread attention in 2017 when he stated that the Civil War was "unnecessary and unconstitutional" and compared Abraham Lincoln to Adolf Hitler. His campaign received at least $2,000 from the Sons of Confederate Veterans PAC.

If the Blue Wave Rolls Bigly, Brian Caskey Could Bring an Upset in SD48

Prognosticators consider North Carolina Senate District 48 as "Safe Republican" (although Bitzer rated it only "Lean Republican" at some point late last fall -- I have the print-out but don't ask me for the URL). Trump took 59.36 percent of the district vote in 2016. That's enough to sober anybody up -- ice water to one's tenderest aspirations. But Democrat Brian Caskey has been making a campaign there, and anyone should have seen it coming. 

I followed the rise of Caskey starting on December 31, 2019, shortly after the close of candidate filing. He was the frontrunner then, I thought, and has never stopped. He won the Democratic primary in March. In July, he called out Republican incumbent Chuck Edwards for being in Duke Energy's pocket. A scrapper, and that's what it will take to upset this incumbent. If anything, Caskey should do more of that hell-raising with Edwards' record.

The mathematical question: Does Democratic/Independent enthusiasm for voting (i.e., disgust with Trump) equal a 5 percent bump for Caskey? And does a downward trending enthusiasm gap among mountain Republicans equal another 5 percent advantage for Caskey? (Political observers whose roots run deep in the mountains say things aren't so keen for many Republican voters. There's a palpable sense of exhaustion.) Together, Democratic enthusiasm and Republican depression could wipe out Trump's 10 percent advantage from 2016. Is it possible? Hell, in a year when the very bedrock of our Republic, the Post Office, is threatened, I'll believe almost anything is possible

There's another factor impacting on Caskey's chances to flip this Senate district: SD48 overlaps with HD113 and HD117 where Democratic candidates have been mounting energetic campaigns -- Sam Edney in the 113th and Josh Remillard in the 117th. Edney especially is rallying the troops. Edney, Remillard, and Kim Bost over in the 96th District (Catawba County) have teamed up for their own "Breaking the Majority" campaign. The energy is noticeable for mobilizing "sometime" voters, new voters, independent voters (who hold the balance of power), and with Caskey assaulting the Senate, there's every promise of culmulative force applied against The Matrix.

Holy Cow! The Democrats Are Out-Raising Republicans (By a Lot!) in NC House Races

Having lots of money-supporters doesn't mean you're going to win. But it doesn't hurt. It signals energy and excitement -- real fire producing all that smoke.

I've just spent some time perusing the 2nd Quarter fundraising/expenditure totals for many of the NC House and NC Senate contests, especially "races to watch." These figures were aggregated by RealFactsNC, a Raleigh/Chapel Hill 501(c)(4) non-profit dedicated to research. It's also dedicated to the progressive wave. Me likee research. It's my drug of choice, and I've been riffing on numbers (and prognostications) provided by RealFactsNC for at least a year. Good work, guys.

Here's what most noticeable: In almost every House district currently contested by insurgent Democrats challenging flippable incumbent Republicans, the Democrat is outraising -- often by a lot -- the Republican. (I'll write about the Senate races to watch separately, probably tomorrow.) That fundraising advantage is amplified if it's a race between a freshman Democrat who won in the 2018 Blue Wave and a new Republican opponent. Take Democrat Ray Russell's race for reelection in HD93 (Watauga and Ashe). He reports having almost $200,000, cash on hand as of July 10. Ray's Republican opponent, Ray Pickett, made no report. He's been relying on dark money expenditures, attacks on Ray's character by anonymous 3rd parties, to get him across the finish line first. But still.

'Wow!' Down on the Coast

NCH1 -- Democrat Emily Bunch Nicholson ... $108,876.98, cash on hand

Republican incumbent Ed Goodwin ... $22,637. cash on hand

(I wrote about Nicholson and others most likely to flip a House seat back in June, based on RealFactsNC and other sources.)

[NOTE: All links below connect to previous coverage in WataugaWatch]

Races to Watch

NCH12 -- Democrat Virginia Cox-Daugherty ... $109,876.24

Republican Chris Humphrey ... $47.741.77

NCH20 -- Democrat Adam Ericson ... $103,263.84

 Republican Ted Davis ... $33,304.04

NCH43 Open Seat -- Democrat Kimberly Hardy ...  $119,881.22

Republican Diane Wheatley ... $2,346.21

NCH51 -- Democrat Jason Cain ... $100,178.31

Republican John Sauls ... $65,178.31

NCH63 -- Democrat Ricky Hurtado ... $143,423.45

Republican Stephen Ross ... $28,263.86

NCH74 -- Democrat Dan Besse ... $155, 546.78

Republican Jeff Zenger ... $17,357.58

NCH82 -- Democrat Aimy Steele ... $193,752.14

Republican Kristin Baker ... $10,615.72

NCH83 -- Democrat Gail Young ... $155,150.23

Republican Larry Pitts ... $19,285.82 

NCH59 -- Democrat Nicole Quick ... $168,256.04 

Republican Jon Hardister ... $123.940.21

2018 "Wave" Winners Defending Their Seats 

NCH35 -- Democrat Terrence Everitt ... $96,786.40

Republican Fred Von Canon ... $43,614.99

NCH36 -- Democrat Julie von Haefen ... $108,842.88

Republican Kim Coley ... $20,844.50

NCH37 -- Democrat Sydney Batch ... $307,493.00

Republican Erin Pare ... $66.817.36

NCH93 -- see above, 3rd paragraph

NCH98 -- Democrat Christy Clark ... $199,360.16

Republican John Bradford ... $134.700.55

NCH103 -- Democrat Rachel Hunt ... $335,570.39

Republican Bill Brawley ... $26,092.01

NCH104 -- Democrat Brandon Lofton ... $117,944.45

Republican Don Pomeroy ... $82,506.93

NCH105 -- Democrat Wesley Harris ... $45,206.13

Republican Amy Bynum ... $6,261.54

NCH119 -- Democrat Joe Sam Queen ... $116,645.25

Republican Mike Clampitt ... $5,652.53

Surprises: Where Democratic Insurgents Are Trailing

NCH9 -- Democrat Brian Farkas ... $140,053.68

Republican Perrin Jones ... $176,122.71

NCH45 -- Democrat Frances Vinell Jackson ... $133,172.42

Republican John Szoka ... $211,328.66

Down in Wilmington

NCH19 -- Democrat Marcia Morgan ... $91,397.18

Republican Charlie Miller ... $12,757.18

I wrote about Marcia Morgan enthusiastically when she ran in 2018, and I was rooting for her to try again this year. But watching her primary back in March against another Democrat, I thought she'd win it, but I worried about a noticeable lack of energy. Seems to be plenty of energy in these fundraising numbers.

Un-Trumping North Carolina: Ricky Hurtado in HD63

 

We're grateful to the Long Leaf Pine Slate for supplying a clutch of new candidate videos for Democrats running in flippable NC General Assembly districts. We've also been writing about these folks for months. The Long Leaf Pine Slate has been successfully raising money for these races all year. Some of the results can be seen in the professional introductory videos -- quick hits of personality and vital biography highlighted by snazzy graphics, so that although the candidate talks directly to the camera, they never lapse into static "talking-head" mode. I'll be highlighting these videos one at a time over coming days/weeks.

Ricky Hurtado in House District 63 (Alamance County). The Republican incumbent is former Wells-Fargo executive Steve Ross. District is rated "Competitive Lean Republican." Ross won reelection in 2018  by barely edging by Democratic candidate Erica McAdoo, and the district has been redrawn to be slightly more Democratic friendly. Trump won this district with only 50.01 percent of the vote in 2016.

"Hurtado is the son of working-class immigrants and a first-generation graduate of UNC-Chapel Hill and Princeton. He is a tireless advocate for educational and racial equity, economic security for working-class families, and child well-being." "Hurtado was a Morehead-Cain Scholar who is now a professor at UNC-Chapel Hill."

A Long-Shot With a Decent Chance: Kael Weston in Utah's 2nd CD

 

I lived in Salt Lake City once upon a time for four wonderful years. I loved that place, one of the most original cities in this wide country, and I went often to the Mormon Tabernacle at noon for the organ concerts played by Alexander Schreiner. Salt Lake City has a rich cultural history and the best street-naming system anywhere. You're never lost, as long as you understand longitude and latitude.

Right now Salt Lake City, the anchor of the 2nd Congressional District, has a good shot -- the best shot in many years -- to elect a Democrat to Congress. The fact that the district also takes in vast stretches of rural western and southern Utah is probably why every pundit ranks the 2nd CD as "Safe Republican" -- liberal Salt Lake City be damned!

Gulp. That's a whole lot of real estate with a whole lot of people who wouldn't consider a Democrat for dog-catcher.

I became aware of Kael Weston because I follow ex-Marine combat pilot Scott Cooper on Twitter. Cooper jumped into the Democratic primary in the North Carolina 2nd CD in 2019 to take on Republican incumbent George Holding, but he got drawn out of the district in the most recent remapping, and he dropped out of the primary before the March voting. But he's stayed active in politics, and he brought my attention to Kael Weston: 

.@KaelWestonto me recently on why he's running for Congress. "It's not the hardest thing I've done - Fallujah & Helmand were the hardest. But it may be the most important thing I'll ever do." He's one of the people who might just help save our Republic.

Weston served for some seven years in both Iraq and Afghanistan representing the US State Department as an on-the-ground advisor to Marine Corps brass and taking the lead -- for example -- on rebuilding Fallujah's infrastructure, facilitating the return of hundreds of thousands back into the city, establishing a new city council, and working with leaders in Ramadi and Baghdad. He wrote about all that experience in an award-winning book "The Mirror Test."

There's a lot more to know about Kael Weston, which you can explore at your own pace: www.WestonForCongress.com.

What About the Republican Weston Is Running Against?

Salt Lake City is not Trump country. Much of the rest of the 2nd CD might be, but it's worth pointing out that Trump took less than half the Utah popular vote in 2016. Good Mormons -- of which the 2nd CD is well equipped in the west and south -- might take their cues from their Mormon Senator Mitt Romney, who was the only Republican to vote to convict Trump. Can we venture the speculation that Utah's adherence to Trump is unsettled?

Then comes the incumbent Republican Rep. Chris Stewart, first elected in 2012 and not seriously threatened by any Democrat since. Until Kael Weston came along:

UtahPolicy.com reported the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee considers Stewart potentially vulnerable to a strong opponent, due to Donald Trump's unpopularity in the 2nd District, and Stewart's record of vigorously defending him.

A poll taken in January 2020 among likely voters showed Stewart with 38% of the vote, and a Democratic challenger with 36% of the vote....

A July 2019 poll showed Stewart with the lowest approval rating of any Utah congressperson.

So ... let's watch this race. Might be a sleeper flip.