Trump Bombshell Dropped on the Military: Will It Matter to the Congressional Race in NC-8?

 

The American military was already backing away from Trump -- carefully, to be sure (discussed more below) -- even before his contempt for military sacrifice became a bombshell revelation yesterday.

I immediately wondered how that totally credible news of Trump's betrayal would affect the Democratic insurgency of Patricia Timmons-Goodson down in the 8th Congressional District. She's from Fayetteville, in Cumberland County, which just happens to hold two large military parks: the US Army at Fort Bragg and the US Air Force at Pope, meaning, in short, that the military vote in Cumberland County could be a wildcard heavy thumb on the political scales of 2020. Being pissed at what Trump said could sway the election toward the Democrat. But are they pissed?

(NOTE: Used to be, in the old 8th district, only the northern, more rural parts of Cumberland were included, but that already included Fort Bragg and Pope. The new 8th adds all of Cumberland, including more urbanized and liberal Fayetteville. Which makes the 8th lean slightly more Democratic, though it's still stubbornly labeled "Lean Republican" by the Cook Report.)

I've been surfing this a.m. for any answer to how Trump is playing there this weekend. Can't find a thing specific to the populations of Bragg and Pope, and the Fayetteville Observer gives me nothing. What I did run into was background on how the military decided to ban all displays of Confederate battle flags without triggering Trump's wrath (he has very forcefully defended everything Confederate). Because Trump's also notorious for not reading, the Pentagon's order cleverly buried their ban by not using the word ban, nor the word Confederate, and by making their policy order sound wholly positive, not negative. Defense Secretary Mark Esper signed the order on Thursday night, listing all that's allowed, and so much is allowed (U.S. and state banners, flags of other allies and partners, the widely displayed POW/MIA flag, and official military unit flags). The Confederate flag is not listed. Oops. But it would take reading to understand what just happened. The Pentagon's wording was "a creative way to bar the flag’s display without openly contradicting or angering President Donald Trump" (Lolita C. Baldor, AP).

That significant attempt to deceive the Commander in Chief is what I was referring to in the lead graph above: "Military, backing away from Trump already," even before he characterized their sacrifice as sucker-hood. Not to put too fine a point on it, the freshest and most promising new federal Democratic candidates since 2016 have tended to be former military men and women. I'm not going to list them here now. Take my word for it: the new Democratic star is likely former military, fed up with Donald Trump. I've profiled a bunch of them here since 2017, in many different states.

Timmons-Goodson is a distinguished lawyer and jurist, with 30 years experience including a seat on the NC Supreme Court and nomination by Barack Obama to the US 4th Circuit. She's massively accomplished and Black. The "new 8th" still contains plenty of the "old 8th," the conservative White counties of Harnett, Moore, Montgomery, and Stanly. A Black woman in the race complicates the Deep South metrics -- the incumbent Republican is a White man, Richard Hudson, who's supposedly more moderate than most of his brethren. But her candidacy maybe also liberates a different voting bloc that hasn't been participating up to their potential. The new 8th is about 1/4th Black. It's more heavily urban in the far east -- Cumberland -- and also the far west, Cabarrus (with its big city of Concord), which is increasingly a suburb of Charlotte and where there are several other strong Democrats making energetic runs for the General Assembly. They all mutually benefit one another.

I have no -- zero -- information nor insight about how Trump's words are playing among the active duty in Cumberland County, just curiosity to know. Not just the active duty personnel but also the retired military community, which I've been led to believe is substantial. The military has always been considered a part of the Republican base, hasn't it? Trump's been reportedly popular with the troops, and he's certainly courted their approval, which just makes his reported opinions about the Service all the more a betrayal.

Un-Trumping North Carolina: Democrat Pat Timmons-Goodson in the 8th Congressional District

The redrawn 8th Congressional District still looks gloomy, on the face of it. Made up principally of conservative rural counties of Stanley and Montgomery and large parts of Moore (yikes!), Lee, and Harnett, but bookended (here's the good news) in the west by more suburban Cabarrus and the city of Concord and in the east by Cumberland County and the city of Fayetteville, a Democratic stronghold. Nevertheless, Trump carried the area by 9 points in 2016, and Politico still considers it +8 for Republicans. The Cook Political Report rates it "Likely Republican."

Never mind that. The DCCC -- all the way back in January -- named the 8th as part of its "offensive battlefield" for 2020 -- a targeted push to increase the Democratic majority in the US House. Later, just a couple of weeks ago, the DCCC named the candidacy of Pat Timmons-Goodson in the 8th as one of its "Red-to-Blue" targets. Means financial and tactical support. Smart people seem to think that Timmons-Goodson has a shot at it, especially in a year like TwentyTwenty.

Larry Kissell was the last Democrat to win the 8th (a differently drawn 8th back then), in the Obama year of 2008. Kissell beat the Republican incumbent, Robin Hayes by a good 10 points. Kissell was reelected in 2010 but lost in 2012 to the current Republican incumbent, Richard Hudson. The Republicans had redrawn districts to favor themselves following the Census of 2010, and they drew Fayetteville out of the 8th, so Kissell was out too. Didn't help either that he voted against Obamacare.

Now, Pat (Patricia) Timmons-Goodson looks to be a very strong candidate. She's got the gravity and wisdom of a judge because she was one. She spent over three decades in the judicial system of North Carolina, earning her law degree at Chapel Hill and working as an assistant prosecutor in Cumberland County (Fayetteville). She rose to a local district judgeship and then to the North Carolina Court of Appeals before becoming in 2006 the first African-American woman elected to the North Carolina Supreme Court. President Obama attempted to add her to the bench of the 4th Circuit, but Sen. Richard Burr blocked her nomination and of course Mitch McConnell was not about to confirm her.

Her integrity and intelligence come through strong and clear in her introductory video. She marshals respect.

More video! That DCCC support needs to invest in some professional productions that utilize the inarguable, earned wisdom of this woman as a talking-head, but an ad that breaks free of the talking-head monologue. Her deliberate reasonableness provides a rich contrast to the chaos of the Trump administration and to Congressman Richard Hudson's collaboration with it.

Incumbent Republican Congressman Richard Hudson is really a swamp creature. He became a rising Republican Party foot soldier shortly after he graduated with a poly sci degree from UNC-Charlotte in 1996. He rose quickly to working for Congressman Robin Hayes back in the district, and then Virginia Foxx brought him to Washington to work for her, and he stayed in Washington power circles, working for several other Republican congresspeople after he left Foxx, until he defeated Larry Kissell in 2012 for his own seat.

He's frequently described as a "moderate." What is a Republican moderate in the age of Trump? A silent collaborator who kowtows to the strong man, keeps his head down and his mouth shut. The times require sinew. But he was photographed wearing a COVID mask (which in a Republican county like Moore is tantamount to being a Democrat), and he approvingly retweeted the video of the Fayetteville police taking a knee in solidarity with street-marchers.

So, okay, "moderate." Rhymes with "human." At least he can express empathy for people not in his corner. But Pat Timmons-Goodson may out-rank him for humanity and out-flank him for votes.