Showing posts with label Harper Peterson. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Harper Peterson. Show all posts

Wednesday, October 07, 2020

All Eyes on These Democrats in NC's "Bellwether County," New Hanover

 

In 2016 Watauga County was designated a "bellwether county" -- one of ten across the nation in that year's battleground states -- because Watauga's political history suggested we more often than not voted for the eventual winner of the presidential race. D'oh. We lost our status in 2016 because Watauga went roguishly for Hillary instead of for the winner, Twitterman. 

So much for an alpha sheep decked with a bell who leads the other sheep.


But we're delighted to see New Hanover County listed again as a bellwether county. Not its first time. The Associated Press named it a bellwether in 2016, along with Watauga: "New Hanover County was chosen because Republicans and Democrats are split almost evenly in Wilmington and the surrounding area, and the number of independents registered here has risen so much since the last presidential election that they now outnumber both parties."

Now for 2020, New Hanover gets the honor again in a list compiled by Dave Wasserman, House editor at the Cook Political Report. The New York Times published it as "opinion," and it's pretty damn interesting. Haven't investigated all the other counties on the new list -- I'll get around to them -- but New Hanover rises in the east today like the sun, and I can't take any more light at the moment. Several men and women from New Hanover, either already in the General Assembly (some flipped their seats in 2018), or are trying to get there, fill my eyeballs today -- the potential and the odds for Democrats' taking back the General Assembly in 2020. 

Here's a primer:

NC House Districts

Dist. 18 -- Deb Butler (incumbent Democrat), one of the most famous progressive warriors in the General Assembly, challenged by Republican Warren Kennedy. Bitzer rates the district "Safe Democratic."

 

Dist. 19 (only part of New Hanover, with a larger slice of New Brunswick to the south-- problematic for a Democratic win minus a Blue Wave) -- Open seat. Democrat Marcia Morgan is being challenged by Republican Charlie Miller. Quoting myself from January of this year:

Morgan is a 74-year-old Baby Boomer born in 1946. She was an educator, became a career Army officer who retired as a colonel. She taught ROTC and did two tours at the Pentagon including a staff position with the Army Chief of Staff. She says, "I have thoroughly enjoyed retirement and the freedom to do as I please, but the current political environment has challenged me to step forward once again. I do not have a background in politics, but I DO have a strong sense of service to this community and a demonstrated ability to accomplish difficult tasks. I believe we have a commitment to improve our economy, provide equal opportunities for all and protect our environment – and one of the fundamental ways to accomplish those things is through quality education." She details her career, which took her all over the world for the Army, on her website.

Morgan has been endorsed by Lillian's List. She came within 883 votes of beating Ted Davis in 2018 in the old District 19. The last fundraising report I've seen suggested a good effort on her part for 2020.

 

 

Dist. 20 -- Ted Davis, incumbent Republican, formerly in the 19th but drawn out of that district and into Holly Grange's district. The double-bunking of incumbent Republicans was certainly part of Holly Grange's decision to opt out of reelection and run for governor against Dan Forest instead (a remarkably empty gesture in today's NCGOP). Democrat Adam Ericson, a public high school teacher, is challenging Davis. FlipNC.org analysis of the prospect: "Gov. Cooper lost the newly constituted NC-H20 by just 5 points in 2016, and the NC House race was just as close in 2018. The pool of left-leaning voters who stayed home in NC-H20 in 2018 was about 14 points more left-leaning than the folks who came out to the polls, and the great news is that 2020 primary turnout was up 30% over 2016!"


 

NC Senate

Dist. 9 -- Harper Peterson (incumbent Democrat: elected 2018), challenged by Republican attorney Mike Lee. Rated a "Toss Up" by Bitzer. Peterson beat Lee in 2018, so this is a rematch. Fundraising on both sides has been eye-popping, though Lee was edging Peterson slightly in the $$ race the last time I looked. Peterson is a former mayor of Wilmington and has been very visible in the controversy surrounding the pollution of the Cape Fear River.


 

U.S. House

Dist. 7 -- David Rouzer, incumbent Republican, challenged by Democrat Christopher Ward. Considered a safe Republican district because of all that rural real estate north of Wilmington, Republican counties stretching all the way to Johnston County just south of Wake.

https://www.chriswardforcongress.com


Thursday, July 16, 2020

The Nasty 'Dark Money' Arrives in #NCGA Races


An outside expenditure group calling itself "Citizens for a Better NC House" is unloading a flood of slick and nasty mailers against NC House Rep. Ray Russell (HD93), and if he's being targeted, so are other Democrats who won close races in 2018. (This group may also be the source of push-polling against Russell that we're getting reports of.)

The group is registered with the state Board of Elections with one name on the registration papers, that of a treasurer, Phillip A. Painter, and a PO Box address in Raleigh. The only Phillip A. Painter I can find in North Carolina lives in Gastonia.

As treasurer, he has a nice pile to play with, some $1,200,000 in "outside source" funds (all anonymous) that have miraculously appeared via electronic transfer. In addition to the attacks on Ray Russell in HD93, meant to boost the chances of Republican Ray Pickett, the group is also targeting these House and Senate races:

HD20, where Democrat Adam Ericson is challenging Republican Ted Davis. I wrote about Ericson on June 22 as one of the best bets to flip a Republican district this year.

HD82, where Democrat Aimy Steele is a real threat to flip an open Republican seat. I also wrote about Steele on June 22nd.

SD9, where Democrat Harper Peterson, who flipped this senate seat in 2018, is trying to hold on against Republican Mike Lee, who's trying to get his seat back with the help of dark money.

HD1, where Democrat Emily Bunch Nicholson is challenging incumbent Republican Ed Goodwin. This is another of those closely watched races that could flip the NC House to Democratic control. I wrote about Nicholson on June 21.

SD1, where Democrat Tess Judge is trying to unseat Republican incumbent Bob Steinburg. I put Judge in the "3rd tier" of potential red-to-blue flippers of NC Senate districts. Clearly, the dark money is worried about her chances of taking out Steinburg.

Sunday, February 17, 2019

Republicans Killed the Film Industry, But This Bill Could Help Bring It Back


Sen. Harper Peterson
A tax credit program for North Carolina film production helped build Wilmington into a major venue for film and TV production, with location work (and local jobs -- some 4,200 statewide) often spreading out all over the state including into these western mountains. In 2014 alone, film productions brought more than $300 million to more than 30 counties across the state. Then the Republican super-majority in the General Assembly, abetted by Republican Governor Pat McCrory, trash-canned the tax credits, then sealed the lid shut with HB2, and the film industry obliged -- "We know when we're not welcomed" -- and largely fled to Atlanta and other friendlier Southern states, taking their jobs and their cash with them.

Newly elected Democratic state Senator Harper Peterson of District 9 in Wilmington is trying to reverse that trend, though he doesn't expect much cooperation from his Republican brethren (who just naturally hate Hollywood or any group of different people who seem happy). Peterson introduced Senate Bill 57 to bring back the tax credits for film production, but he admitted that with the Berger/Moore people still in charge, he faces a strenuous uphill climb: “I don’t assume this will go forward, but it keeps the discussion alive and look at where we were when we were very prosperous.”

“I’m optimistic but I’m also realistic,” he said. “The industry is changing before our eyes. We have to reinvent and update the incentive program to meet the demands and competition from other states.”

Kudos to Senator Peterson for trying. At least the Democrats in the General Assembly are now on record as favoring job creation and bringing back an industry that the Republicans stabbed through the heart.

And don't we love seeing our state depicted on the big screen, as well as the little one?

Tuesday, July 17, 2018

Dems #ncga Candidates Catching Fire All Across the State


I wrote about Democratic NC House candidate Terri LeGrand showing some fundraising strength in Forsyth County yesterday. Today brings plenty more fundraising news in that same vein. If campaign fundraising is a barometer -- and it is -- then these General Assembly candidates below are looking gooder and gooder for this November.

In House District 52, Lowell Simon out-raised Republican incumbent Jamie Boles $11,987.68 to $8,450 during the Second Quarter of 2018. Those are low numbers on both sides but still interesting. Boles may be suffering from over-confidence, since he's had no opponent at all for ten years. But he's lugging some serious baggage -- evidence of self-dealing and other corruption.
Democrat Lowell Simon looks viable. He is a recently retired high school math teacher, a profession he came to late in his career after many years in business. First in New York state and then in North Carolina, he managed chains of convenience stores. He was vice president of operations for Quick Chek, a chain of about 30 convenience stores based in Troy, which brought him and his family to Seven Lakes to live. He later bought into Southern Pines based Fuel Mate, which had six BP stores. During his time teaching math at Union Pines High School, the superintendent tapped him to start an entrepreneurship program for students. "Simon has served on the boards of Philip Morris, RJ Reynolds and the North Carolina Council on the Holocaust. A political appointee of three different state House speakers from both parties, he has helped draft key legislation, including the formation of the NC Lottery .... He currently serves on the boards of Moore Regional Hospital and Moore Forward, and is president emeritus of the Sandhills Jewish Congregation" (ThePilot.com).


In Senate District 1, Democrat D. Cole Phelps raised $73,788.04 to Republican opponent Bob Steinburg's $48,417.50 during he Second Quarter. Senate District 1 hugs the coast in the northeastern corner of the state. Steinburg is currently a member of the NC House looking to move up in the world. Tea partiers consider him a cuck.
Democrat Cole Phelps is a young lawyer. How young? When he was elected to the county commission of Washington County at 24, he was the youngest member of any county commission in the state. He's serving his second term now at the age of 29. He was the first in his family to go to college, first to East Carolina for a degree in Family and Community Services and then to NC Central School of Law. He got a leg up to get that good education, and it says something about him that he immediately turned around and established a scholarship program for deserving first-generation, college-bound students in several east Carolina counties. From his very first campaign for county commission, he was pumping education and the need to keep kids in school and make college more possible. He's been named a William C. Friday Fellow. That's a prestigious group of 200 citizens deemed crucial leaders in their local communities. For the record (and this particular issue looks decisive on the coast), he's an outspoken opponent of Twitterman's scheme to drill for oil in North Carolina waters.


In Senate District 25, Democrat Helen Probst Mills outraised Republican incumbent Tom McInnis $87,933.80 to $64,642.52 in the Second Quarter. McInnis is propped up by PAC money. He was also propped up by the Republican leadership in the House during a destructive primary in May against Tea Party opposition. When you're propped up that much, you run the risk of becoming a prop.
Democrat Helen Probst Mills has been on our radar since the second week of February. She's an attorney from Pinehurst and entered politics this year, she says, in part to simply provide an option. “The reality is that I walk in on Election Day to the polling booth here in Pinehurst and there are no Democrats for me to check. We need a choice,” Mills said. “There needs to be an opportunity for an individual to stand up and to make him crystalize his position on issues and policies and to defend the votes he has taken.” Mills says she grew up a daughter to a single mother and is herself the mother of three and a cancer survivor who moved to North Carolina with her husband, Stuart, in 2006. She is licensed to practice law in Illinois. Last year, Mills was appointed by Gov. Roy Cooper to the Sandhills Community College Board of Trustees. She also serves on the college’s Foundation Board, where she helped develop a program allowing high school graduates to attend for two years tuition-free. She serves as development chair for the Northern Moore Family Resource Center in Robbins, which has opened a preschool and is developing a community center. She credits the overcoming of breast cancer to having health insurance: “Everyone, no matter their background or how much money they make, should have access to affordable, quality health care. Yet too many politicians in Raleigh put petty partisan politics over policies that would help thousands. That is wrong for my community and for North Carolina.” (Republican incumbent McInnis opposed, like most other Republicans in Phil Berger's senate, the expansion of Medicaid under the Affordable Care Act.)


In House District 36, Democrat Julie von Haefen outraised Republican incumbent and powerful chair of the House Budget Committee Nelson Dollar $70,281.64 to $38,800 in the Second Quarter. Rep. Dollar, in terms of what his pelt will fetch, is a rhino, a bull elephant, and a giraffe all in one. This is a Wake County district that was spitefully redrawn to cut out Democratic stars who had wanted to run against him, leaving the current Democratic challenger to screw up her courage and step forward to the challenge.

Democrat Julie von Haefen is president of the Wake County PTA Council and has three school-age children in the Wake County public schools. She scorched Dollar in her filing announcement for what his state budgets have done to public education: "From the expansion of school vouchers and charter schools to the failure to pay our teachers and principals what they deserve, Representative Dollar and his legislature have harmed our students and our schools. Most recently, their reckless and unfunded K-3 class size mandate caused unnecessary stress for school districts across the state. It is time to put our teachers and our children ahead of partisan politics. North Carolina's students deserve better than they are getting from our legislature. They deserve increased funding for school counselors and nurses. And they deserve a public school system with the funding and resources it needs to prepare them for the future. We owe it to our students, and to the economy, and to the state." Von Haefen is married to an NC State professor, and they have lived in Apex for the last 13 years. She trained as a lawyer and practiced law for 10 years.

In House District 51, Democrat Lisa Mathis has seriously outraised Republican incumbent John Sauls during both quarters of 2018 -- $24,963.53 to $3,500 in the First Quarter, and $49,495.26 to $5,050 in the Second Quarter.
Lisa Mathis was a "military kid" who says that repeatedly moving all over the country taught her "courage, adaptability, and a deep respect for the sacrifices of our service members and their families." She trained as an artist and graphic designer and opened a small graphic design business in Sanford, N.C. Deeply involved in community and profoundly appreciative of putting down deep roots in a single place, she started a second small business in 2003, ArtStudio in downtown Sanford, "a place for children and adults to explore their creativity." Especially children. She is a strong advocate for education spending and for expanding Medicaid. She talks on her website about helping working families and encouraging small businesses, especially in areas previously devastated by the Bush recession. She's got boots on the ground -- a good following of willing volunteers -- and a field organizer. Always a good sign.


In Senate District 9, Democrat Harper Peterson raised $52,316.03 to Republican incumbent Mike Lee's $36,300 in the Second Quarter. Lee had 20 Second Quarter donors, 11 of which were special interest PACs.
Democrat Harper Peterson has been a leader in the reaction to the GenX pollution crisis and helped start the community watchdog group Clean Cape Fear. He's also a former mayor of Wilmington and city councilman. He announced that he was running for this seat back last September. He says, "Unfortunately, in recent years, the basic needs and guaranteed rights of North Carolinians have taken a backseat to the interests of politicians and their big donors. Specifically, they have spread distrust among North Carolinians while trading to their donors our excellent public schools, quality healthcare and natural resources for tax giveaways. The games at our expense have to stop. I now have the time and energy and the full support of my family and friends to serve and be a voice for common sense in our state legislature." Peterson is critical of current Republican legislative priorities: "Too many of our representatives ignored the governor’s request for $2.6 million in emergency funds for the Department of Environmental Quality and Department of Health and Human Services to vigorously address GenX and other cancer-causing compounds that have been dumped into our river. Additionally, tax giveaways to corporate interests have been paid for through slashed budgets and staffing for the state agencies who could have been proactive in defending us from this poison in our water." He also wants to bring back the film industry, which the General Assembly essentially ran out of North Carolina in one of its budget bills.


In Senate District 41, Democrat Natasha Marcus raised $113,802.53 from 375 donors during the First Quarter, while the Republican incumbent Jeff Tarte raised $35,456.34 from 53 donors. In the Second Quarter, Tarte went ahead of Marcus by $7,300, but for the year Marcus is still ahead of Tarte. She has hundreds of donors. Tarte has far fewer, many of which are special interest PACs.
Democrat Natasha Marcus has been on my radar since early in February. She made an unsuccessful bid for the state House in her Cornelius neighborhood in 2014, when Republican John Bradford III defeated her 55 to 45 percent. “The policies that touch our lives most closely often come from the state level,” Marcus told WUNC. “Federal politics is important, but what happens at the General Assembly in Raleigh – from public school funding, to healthcare, to whether we’re going to have to pay tolls here in the North Mecklenburg area is also important." According to Ballotpedia, Marcus earned her B.A. in public policy from Hamilton College and her J.D. from Duke University School of Law in 1994. Her professional experience includes working as a lawyer for Brooks, Pierce, McLendon, Humphrey & Leonard; as Judicial Clerk for the Honorable Frank W. Bullock, Jr. of the U.S. District Court in Greensboro; and as a founding member of DavidsonLearns, a non-profit providing senior citizen learning and enrichment. Marcus intends a fight for the seat: “Cuts to public pre-K through higher education, unconstitutional laws, politicians who put polluters over our clean air and water, policies that make healthcare more expensive and less accessible, and expensive toll lanes on I-77 have taken us backwards. Like many people in our community, I am fed up with being ignored by Raleigh Republicans and am ready to take a stand.”



Two of the candidates above -- Lisa Mathis and Cole Phelps -- are new to this blog. I've written about the others before and -- full disclosure -- I have cannibilized those earlier postings for the one above.

Monday, February 05, 2018

Two NC Senate Races to Watch

Harper Peterson, running in the 9th NC Senate District
The 9th Senate District includes most of Wilmington and the coastal towns of Kure Beach, Carolina Beach, and Wrightsville Beach.
Harper Peterson
Incumbent Republican: Michael Lee was first appointed to the chamber in 2014 to fill out the term of Thom Goolsby. He was elected in his own right in the fall of 2014 and reelected in 2016. He's a lawyer. He's young. As far as we can tell, he's never bucked his boss Phil Berger, falling into line with the Republican Senate leader on every issue, which means that Lee must own the weak response to the pollution of drinking water in the Cape Fear River (the chemical, known as GenX, was found to be coming from a DuPont spin-off business, Chemours, which covered up the contamination from down-stream drinking-water intakes). So far the General Assembly (and certainly Phil Berger's Senate) has been weak in seeking redress, failing to recommend or legislate more money so that the Department of Environmental Quality (DEQ) can increase enforcement. Phil Berger (and his soldier Michael Lee) don't like environmental rules nor their enforcement.
Democrat Harper Peterson has been a leader in the reaction to the GenX pollution crisis and helped start the community watchdog group Clean Cape Fear. He's also a former mayor of Wilmington and city councilman. He announced that he was running for this seat back last September. He says, "Unfortunately, in recent years, the basic needs and guaranteed rights of North Carolinians have taken a backseat to the interests of politicians and their big donors. Specifically, they have spread distrust among North Carolinians while trading to their donors our excellent public schools, quality healthcare and natural resources for tax giveaways. The games at our expense have to stop. I now have the time and energy and the full support of my family and friends to serve and be a voice for common sense in our state legislature." Peterson is critical of current Republican legislative priorities: "Too many of our representatives ignored the governor’s request for $2.6 million in emergency funds for the Department of Environmental Quality and Department of Health and Human Services to vigorously address GenX and other cancer-causing compounds that have been dumped into our river. Additionally, tax giveaways to corporate interests have been paid for through slashed budgets and staffing for the state agencies who could have been proactive in defending us from this poison in our water." He also wants to bring back the film industry, which the General Assembly essentially ran out of North Carolina in one of its budget bills.

Naveed Aziz, running in the 19th NC Senate District
Damned if I know exactly what Senate District 19 includes under the special master's redrawn maps, but suffice it to say ... Cumberland County and probably much of Fayetteville. Beyond that, I'm not entirely sure.
Naveed Aziz

Republican incumbent: Wesley Meredith ran a landscaping business after retiring from the Army as a sergeant. He first entered the chamber in 2010 as part of the Tea Party wave, winning by a small margin of 1,000 votes. He's improved his winning margin over Democratic opponents in every subsequent reelection campaign, getting over 56% of the vote in 2016. After that most recent election, he was named by Senate Republicans as majority whip. Meredith's past campaigns have had a way of turning ugly. During a Fayetteville City Council election in 2003, charges were made that Meredith was involved in voter fraud, and in his 2010 NC Senate race (against Democrat Margaret Dickson) one of Meredith's tv ads implied that Dickson was a prostitute. In his 2014 reelection, his ex-wife spilled the beans that back in the 1990s the couple had gotten Medicaid assistance for their son for which they were ineligible (the couple’s annual income in those years was far higher than the maximum allowed). 
Democrat Naveed Aziz is a Cumberland County physician. She ran for a different senate seat in 2016, entering the Democratic primary against incumbent Senator Ben Clark. She lost and there was an official complaint that she didn't actually live in the district (a complaint that was dismissed). If she wins this election, Dr. Aziz would be only the second Muslim elected to the NC General Assembly and the first Muslim woman to serve in the legislature. Dr. Aziz is originally from Pakistan and immigrated to the United States more than 20 years ago. She has served on the Boards of Fayetteville Urban Ministries and Second Harvest Food Bank, chaired the Greater Spring Lake Chamber of Commerce, and served on Spring Lake’s Economic Development Committee. In addition to being a physician, she has dual masters degrees in Business Administration and Health Administration. Dr. Aziz runs a Free Clinic and a Free Food Program in Spring Lake, in addition to managing her medical practice. Gov. Roy Cooper recently appointed her to the North Carolina Youth Advisory Council.