The 2024 Blue Wave Could Make House 25 a Democratic Flip

 

House District 25 (Nash County) northeast of Wake, is about as rural as you get. The biggest towns --Rocky Mount, Whitakers, and Sharpsburg -- are on or near county lines, so much of their population don't vote in the district. When I hear the county seat is Nashville, I always do a doubletake. "There's a Nashville, North Carolina?" It's pretty small. The district, which is entirely in Nash County, is 40% Black. Civitas calls it D+2. Dave's says 51% D.

In District 25, the Republican incumbent is going to be hard to beat, but a new Blue Wave brought on by the change at the top of the ticket could make the difference.

Allen Chesser, Republican Incumbent

Mr. and Mrs. Chesser with their five kids

Chesser is the Republican who beat Black Rep. James Gailliard in 2022. Gailliard had been part of the Class of '18 blue wave. He kept his seat through one reelection in 2022 and then lost it to Chesser in '24.

Chesser's campaign video -- currently pinned at the top of his FB feed -- is a professional production featuring glowing testimonials from some of the establishment in Nash County. Chesser also promoted Opportunity Scholarships (which benefit the most well-to-do people). 

Chesser is ex-military. He served in combat in Iraq as a turret gunner. After Iraq he transitioned to police officer, first in Nags Head and then in Raleigh. Then he went into business for five years as a bail bondsman. Then he became a computer technician and then -- now -- he's VP of Technology and Security for Carrolton Facility Maintenance in Rocky Mount. Emphasis on "security."

Allen credits his time as a police officer in South-East Raleigh for "opening his eyes to the struggles found within the intercity and igniting his passion to help; a passion that still drives him today" (website). That's not MAGA talk. Rather than culture warrior, he's all business and brags that he brought $55 million in pork to Nash. He's apparently a darling of the business community.

He's another youngish Republican candidate -- a second is Melinda Bales -- who keeps their distance from Trump and trumpism while adhering to an ethos of economic conservatism. Sure, Chesser and any Republican candidate down-ballot from Trump, is gonna salute the leader and show some visible enthusiasm for another Trump presidency, but they're not carrying any flaming torches and might actually hold back their allegiance in the coming Second Civil War. Chesser did post on Twitter that we ought to pray for Donald Trump/pray for America (e pluribus, mates!), but otherwise he doesn't indulge in any hot-button-pushing conservative memes. He's cagey about looking extreme, though he has been a big wig in the North Carolina Republican Liberty Caucus, a Libertarian-leaning PAC that endorses candidates whilst promoting "the ideals of individual liberty, limited government, and free market economics" (the chalice from the palace with the brew that is true).

Last March, Chesser faced a Republican primary with a Black woman, Yvonne McLeod, who had come close to beating him two years earlier in the Republican primary of 2022. Two years later, Chesser easily beats McLeod with 66% of the vote. McLeod had been led to challenge Chesser over the gambling casino fiasco. Nash was a target county for one of the four new proposed casinos pushed by Phil Berger. It would have been near Rocky Mount. Chesser was all in for that development, but that drew backlash from all sorts of conservative Republicans, who ran Yvonne McLeod against him.

Lorenza Wilkins, Democrat

His bio on his website contains a puzzling description of his current activities: he's "an equity-driven servant leader and inductee into the National Society of Leadership and Success," an honor society that gives scholarships to ambitious young people of limited means but doesn't appear to hire. Almost in the same sentence, he vaguely mentions "a career of advocating for education, small businesses, and our children," which I take means Wilkins lives on the slim operations budget of more than one non-profit. He eventually nails it down to "currently serving as Chief Officer of People and Culture at the Inter-Faith Food Shuttle." The Inter-Faith Food Shuttle is a charitable non-profit affiliated with the Feeding America National Network of Food Banks. "We recover and distribute food to our low-income neighbors, but we know putting food on a plate is not enough. We also provide programs designed to empower people with skills to meet their own food needs through culinary job training, beginner gardening, and cooking healthy on a budget."

Wilkins is a former student-athlete at North Carolina Central University and holds a Bachelor of Science in Business Administration, a Master of Business Administration, and a Doctor of Business Administration from Columbia Southern University. He does go by "Doctor" on his website. He will compete with Republican Chesser for the mantel of business-friendly:

Dr. Wilkins is working to foster an environment where businesses continue coming to North Carolina, creating jobs, and increasing the quality of life for communities across our state.

The Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee recently awarded Wilkins its "Spotlight" designation, which should provide a fundraising and advertising boost. But NC House Republicans are salting Chesser's coffers even more, setting aside over $500,000 to help keep Chesser in office. Wilkins' fundraising has been anemic. According to The Enterprize, "Wilkins trails Chesser by more than six figures in the money race," which can be a worrying signal of low enthusiasm.

There's social media evidence that Wilkins has some ground game going. If he can rally the Democrats and the progressive Unaffiliated, he has a shot, which would actually be vastly aided by an energing 2024 Blue Wave.

This New Josh Stein Video Will Air During the Olympics

 

Featuring Debbie Dalton of Cornelius, who voted for Donald Trump in 2020.

House District 35: Lawyer Vs. Lawyer

 

The shape of House Dist. 35 is a tale of political revenge (hattip Bryan Anderson). Terence Everitt, a 2018 blue-wave Democratic star held on to this seat through two reelections, through 2022, but in the process of doing his job, he couldn't help noticing the almost theatrical corruption of Speaker Tim Moore, so he wrote the Wake D.A., suggesting that "a probe" of Speaker Moore seemed more than called for. The Wake D.A., Lorrin Freeman, declined to take that up. So for Everett's trouble, Speaker Moore moved his office without warning to cramped space in the basement. Republicans weren't done punishing him. Destin Hall and his gnomes in the House Redistricting Committee gerrymandered Everett's district from what had been D+5 to R+5. Dave's Redistricting scores the district as 51.8% Republican. Civitas makes it R+3.) In frustration, Everett opted this year to run for an overlapping Senate seat, so Dist. 35 is an open grab for someone who brings energy and a persistent ground game. 

(With the sudden change at the top of the Democratic ticket, I predict renewed and possibly stunning energy in the grassroots for the Democrat.)

Evonne Hopkins, Democrat

"Evonne S. Hopkins is a North Carolina Board Certified Family Law Specialist and Certified Parent Coordinator licensed to practice in North Carolina, California, and the District of Columbia. Evonne earned joint JD/MBA degrees from the University of San Francisco in 2003 and a Bachelor of Arts (Honors) in Philosophy from Rollins College in 1998. She's got two decades of legal experience behind her, and is chief in her own legal business, the Raleigh Law Center, "a boutique firm that can help you and your family resolve complex family law issues. We have proven success record in all aspects of family law including child custody & support, alimony, division of marital assets and debts, domestic violence restraining orders, separation & prenuptial agreements. We also offer wills, trusts and estate planning" (Raleigh Law Center website). 

I particularly grooved on this assessment of Hopkins from that same website:

Never one to shy away from conflict, Evonne is known for her straightforward honest style, powerful advocacy and is considered a formidable opponent.

Gov. Cooper came to her kickoff event. She's been pretty good at fundraising, quickly lapping her Republican opponent, though he's been bestowed some $453,000 for TV by the Republican House caucus. Hopkins has done some convassing, and if she's not shy, there needs to be more video of her.

Mike Schietzelt, Republican

Schietzelt and some of his boys

Schietzelt is also an attorney (Duke Law) and an ex-Marine. The Marine part opens up a very interesting life story I quote at length:

As a young adult, Mike toured the world as a professional musician, performing in amusement parks and on cruise ships. In 2011, he enlisted in the U.S. Marine Corps as a member of “The Commandant’s Own” United States Marine Drum and Bugle Corps. While stationed in Washington, D.C, Mike represented the Marine Corps before many of the highest ranking civilian and military officials in America, and he sounded Taps for military funerals at Arlington National Cemetery.

Random facts: He clerked for then-N.C. Supreme Court Chief Justice Mark Martin during the 2018-19 term. He's lobbied at the General Assembly for changes to criminal law (what changes, not explained), and is currently a civil litigation attorney with Michael Best & Friedrich LLP, a quite large firm with multiple offices.

I don't find a whiff of MAGA or trumpism in his social media. He seems attractively moderate, good for this north Wake district. He has four sons and looks to be a swell dad and family man, which also cannot hurt since his opponent might be a single woman.

Schietzelt's greatest liability may be his name, which has to go on a yardsign. He's lagged behind Hopkins in fundraising, but to the rescue comes the NC House Republican caucus, who announced they were funneling $453,000 into Schietzelt's TV budget.

Shelane Etchison Revs It Up

 

Shelane Etchison, the ground-breaking first independent candidate for Congress from a North Carolina district (CD8), released her first TV ad on the night of that disastrous debate performance by Joe Biden.

We had previously written about Etchison's campaign back in April.

Etchison is up against the veteran Republican Richard Hudson in the 8th CD. There's also a Democrat on the ballot who doesn't even live in the district. Most knowledgeable commentators say Etchison hasn't got a ghost's chance of winning, but in this year of surprises, I'm not about to count her out.

The Party Unifies

By Jack Yordy, guest-posting:

This past Saturday, July 20th, I went to the North Carolina Democratic Party Unity Dinner, along with 900 delegates, elected officials, staffers, volunteers, donors, and Democrats. The energy at the event was very positive, even before the news of Joe Biden’s exit from the presidential race. Democrats at the Unity Dinner were excited. The speakers, including our electric party chair Anderson Clayton, and the formidable former Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi, energized the crowd and reinforced our commitment to working hard and winning elections in 2024. Unity was the right word to describe the atmosphere. We knew the odds were tough and the road to winning would be hard, but together, we were ready for it.

The very next day, President Joe Biden announced his decision to drop out of the presidential election and the meaning of the word unity changed. Before, we were unified in our determination to beat the odds and fight what many were starting to believe was a losing battle. It was a convicted, resolute, stubborn unity, but not a very hopeful one. Today, we are unified not only in our convictions and fortitude. We are unified in hope. Democrats are feeling reinvigorated. We young Democrats in particular finally have a vision for the future, something to fight toward rather than against. 

The highlighted message of the Republican National Convention last week was that Donald Trump would be a new man, ready to unify the country. Of course, nothing new came from him at the RNC. He is the same man spouting the same hateful rhetoric. Before Biden dropped out of the race, Democrats couldn’t substantively dispute those claims despite Trump’s continued divisiveness. We were airing out all our dirty laundry for the world to see, riddled with panic and division over questions about Joe Biden’s capabilities. Now the Democrats are showing the world how unity is done. 

State delegations, elected officials, power brokers, and grassroots organizers have unified around Vice President Harris. The party is ready to make her the next president of the United States. Not just because we must beat Donald Trump, not just because we must beat Project 2025, but because she is capable of bringing our country into a new era of prosperity, progress, and, yes, unity. 

 

 

NC House 24: Democratic Star Takes On Republican Fanatic

 

NC House District 24 is another of those Democratic targets for a flip in 2024. It's the County of Wilson, including the county seat of the same name, and a little bit of Nash County. Civitas rates the partisan lean D+2. The incumbent Republican is serving his first term and may be the only Black Republican in the House. Dave's Redistricting measures Dist. 24 at 50.7% Democratic and 38.5% Black. The Democrat appears to be running a very strong campaign. Of the House races I've so far examined, this one looks the most promising for a flip.

[NOTE: But with the change at the top of the Democratic ticket, many tight districts have every chance of flipping in a new Blue Wave of 2024. That's what I'm predicting.]

Dante Pittman, Democrat

Pittman

Dante Pittman was chosen in its first fellowship cohort by Lead North Carolina, which raises money to put "promising recent graduates" into local government jobs. Here is Pittman's writeup:

Pittman served his fellowship in the City of Wilson while serving as a platoon leader in the North Carolina Army National Guard. He collaborated with the Visual Arts Committee at the Wilson Arts Council to promote arts in the community and designed a survey for a micro-transit program. Pittman played a pivotal role with the Gig360 young professionals network, a social organization for individuals dedicated to sustaining the Whirligig Park, networking, and growing a culture of young living in the community.

"Culture of young." The guy's well networked.

Before Leader North Carolina found him, Pittman was special assistant to the attorney general in the North Carolina Department of Justice. He earned a bachelor’s degree in political science from UNC-Chapel Hill with minors in history and military science. He was an inaugural member of the UNC Institute of Politics and served as state and local editor for the Carolina Political Review. He was also a cadet in the UNC Army ROTC program.

He's deeply embedded in Wilson community life, evidenced by his phenomenal success as a fundraiser for his campaign. Pittman outraised his Republican opponent Fontenot by more than 6-to-1, and entering July Pittman had $161,000 in the bank, roughly eight times what Fontenot had. (But never fear. The Republican House caucus has pumped over a half-mil into Fontenot's campaign to make up the difference. They do not intend to lose this seat.)

Pittman is an attractive candidate with an intelligent affect, nicely captured in this 6-minute narrative that he tells of his life story (video done for the Wilson Education Foundation):

Ken Fontenot, Republican incumbent

He ran as an unaffiliated candidate in 2018 (reportedly with the support of the state Republican Party), got over 49% of the vote, proving he could profitably run as a Black Republican after all, which is what he did in 2022 and won by fewer than 3,000 votes over Linda Cooper-Suggs.

Fontenot

Fontenot is a Chicago native and an ex-Marine. He left the Corps in 2014 to move to Wilson where he became a pastoral candidate at a church there, taught middle school for four years, and currently works as an insurance sales agent in the area. What makes him stand out -- and obviously won him the seat, but that was then -- is his chosen role as Mark Robinson Extremist 2.0.

During his 2018 campaign, he made a video on the “genocide of Black babies,” calling himself “a zealous defender of the family” and asked voters to “Help him stand against abortion” by “supporting and promoting family values.” He also responded to an NC Family Voter questionnaire saying that he supports banning abortion “once a fetal heartbeat is detected.” (NCVoices.com)

He voted for Senate Bill 20, which banned abortion in North Carolina at 12 weeks, and then voted to override Gov. Roy Cooper’s veto of the bill.

Extreme views on abortion played better before Dobbs. Now, maybe not so much. But is Dante Pittman mean enough to use the cultural lever against Fontenot?

Fontenot has not been shy about his extreme beliefs. Recently, he has started posting videos on TikTok where he provides hot takes on culture war issues, such as one video where he (without providing any evidence) claims that President Joe Biden and his administration are responsible for a nationwide crime wave – despite FBI data showing violent crime dropped by 49% from 1993 to 2022 and property crime plummeted 59% in that same period. Bureau of Justice Statistics shows a 71% drop in both types of crime from 1993 to 2022.

You can witness Fontenot's conspiratorial demeanor in a Facebook video. 

It's a New Day

 

I trust that Democrats will give Joe Biden a hero's send-off at the National Convention on August 19. He saved us from a horrible future in 2020, and he may have just saved us again from the same fate. Self-sacrifice is all too rare in the Age of Trump, and Joe Biden has shown that he's a man of courage and faith in the future. I admire him for the decision, which could not have been easy.

The path forward may prove complicated. I don't know, but our progressive outlook in North Carolina just shot up several points.

Two Women Face Off for the Open Seat in NC House 98

 

NC House District 98 is in far north Mecklenburg County, encompassing the towns of Davidson, Cornelius, and Huntersville and a lot of Charlotte suburbs. In the blue wave of 2018, Democrat Christy Clark took the seat, but Republican John Bradford took it back in 2020 by a slim margin and won it again in 2022 by an even slimmer 660 votes. Bradford opted last December to sign up for the Republican primary for the 8th Congressional District, losing to preacherman-with-a-shady-past Mark Harris. So the seat is now open for the taking. Civitas rates the district R+1.

Bales

The Democrats have a viable candidate in Beth Helfrich, who has a good shot if she's supported at the head of the ticket by an energizing presidential candidate. But Helfrich is facing an accomplished Republican woman who's an experienced campaigner. Helfrich is a first-time candidate.

Melinda Bales, Republican

Bales has been a Huntersville Town Commissioner and then Mayor for a total of 11 years. She touts her work on economic development/workforce development issues, transportation needs, and affordable housing. It's fair to say she's a "business Republican," which is at least "country club" adjacent. She serves on the Centralina Economic Development District Board of Directors, Centralina Connect Beyond Committee, MTC, and the Lake Norman Economic Development Board of Directors. She also serves as co-chair of the Lake Norman Education Collaborative which is the educational arm of the Lake Norman Chamber of Commerce. She doesn't look MAGA at all.  Her social media stays far away from Donald J. Trump, and she even celebrated Juneteenth on her FB page.

She's running as a "soft" Republican woman in a largely suburban district, which makes perfect sense. But in the NC House, will her moderation mean a damn thing? No. She owes her allegiance to the Republican caucus, which just announced incidentally that they're shoveling $475,000 into media for her campaign. Republicans intend to keep this seat.

Beth Helfrich, Democrat

Helfrich lives in Davidson, is a graduate of Davidson College, the mother of five children, very active in the community in support of the schools, and started her own editing business, Honed--A Writing Company, which helps business startups with their written communications. (Editors are among the unsung heroes of this or any world. She was an English teacher in public schools for over a decade.)

Helfrich has some boots on the ground with at least one big canvass announced for July. She'll need more.

Helfrich has been endorsed by Lillian's List and a bunch more progressive groups, and NC Dems Chair Anderson Clayton has stumped for her.

"Most Vulnerable Republican" in NC House May Not Be

 

Rep. Frank Sossamon

Anderson Alerts gave us a handy guide to "the most vulnerable" Republican House members in Raleigh. All things staying equal, knocking off just one of these sitting ducks would break the Republican veto-proof super-majority. ("All things staying equal," of course, if a forlorn hope, since there are several Democrats made very vulnerable themselves by the most recent round of gerrymandering. I'll talk about them later.)

Anderson fingers Frank Sossamon, who has served as rep in House District 32 only since January of 2023,  as the most vulnerable Republican this November. Sossamon is something of a big-wig in the International  Pentecostal Holiness Church, founded in 1911 out of "the holiness movement" with quickly bonded with "the pentecostal movement" of the 1920s. Sossamon is senior retired pastor of a church in Henderson, County seat of Vance Co. (Sossamon's district includes Vance and Granville up on the Virginia border north of Wake.) Since he retired from being an active pastor, he's working full time in the family's funeral home business (they own three). From the video I've seen of him, Sossamon is an affable guy, a straight shooter who knows how to handle diversity, nothing like a typical Southern bible-thumper, and it's telling that the church he pastored for over 30 years is a thoroughly multi-racial congregation (Vance County is almost 40% Black). 

In an historically Democratic district, Sossamon "eked out a win" in his maiden campaign in 2022 (he campaigned heavily in churches) against a Democratic opponent with a personal scandal in his past that exploded at the height of the campaign. District 32 had been a Biden +10 county in 2020, but with gerrymandering is rated for 2024 by the John Locke Foundation's partisan ratings as only D+4. Dave's Redistricting parses the district as 53.2% Democratic.

Other than his assumed apocalyptic End Times/Judgment Day druthers, Sossamon appears to be about as upstanding a community do-gooder as you could find (with a heavy dollop of law 'n' order). From his website: "...member of the Ethics Council at Maria Parham Hospital, former President and Board Member of the Henderson/Vance County Crime Stoppers for 30 years, a member of the Vance County Juvenile Crime Prevention Council, current President and Board Member of the Granville County Crime Stoppers for 10 years, and a member of the North Carolina Crime Stoppers Association Board of Directors...."

But Sossamon's religio rectitude caused him to buy into David Lane's particular brand of Christian nationalism (advanced by the American Renewal Project), so you might have expected him to introduce a bill to force hanging "In God We Trust" in big letters above the Speaker's perch in the House. (The Great Seal of the state -- you know, "Esse Quam Videri" -- presently hangs there.) Sossamon's measure passed the House but got hung up in the Senate. He's very willing to intercede for the local school systems, introducing one bill  -- which passed -- reducing the length of terms on the elected Granville County School Board and another giving flexibility to both Vance and Granville school boards to start their school terms as early as August 1st (bill had moved in the House before the session ran out of time). Interestingly, he introduced a bill to add Tianeptide, an antidepressant already not approved for use in the U.S., to the "controlled substances" list in NC. Is there an underground market in NC for Tianeptide? That bill made it to a second reading but was left dangling at the end of the session. His legislative initiatives aside, he's a loyal Republican soldier voting with his caucus, and you can rest assured that he is dead set against homosexuality and abortions.

In my view, he won't be easy to beat, possibly because he has gone about the job under his philosophy and lifestyle of pastoring, which means comforting the sick, visiting the poor, helping the wounded to find salve for their wounds -- genuine good deeds which he can brag about, and does. That plus the NC House Republican caucus is shoving over $400,000 into a media blitz to help Sossamon keep his seat (Anderson Alerts).

Bryan Cohn, Democrat

Cohn won a seat on the eight-member Oxford City Council (county seat of Granville) in 2021. He says he was motivated to run by the events of January 6th. His campaign website says that he's "a senior solution engineer working in food safety" (whatever the hell that portends). In another place, he sez he's "a dedicated professional in the agricultural industry," equally opaque. But clearly he's ambitious, running for a House seat almost immediately after winning his city council job, to challenge no less a first-term Republican who seems well positioned to win reelection, even in a D+4 district. All that "pastoring" that Sossamon brags about is good politics.

Cohn, as both a young man and a newcomer to the area, doesn't appear to have the community base that Sossamon has earned. So color me deeply skeptical that this seat can be flipped. (Unless something surprising and as yet unknown should reenergize Democrats.)

A Significant Development

 

Congressional Democratic leaders, Democratic candidates at all levels all across the country, and major Democratic donors are quietly -- occasionally loudly -- sending the message to President Biden that it's time to step aside and let a younger candidate turn the tide back against the would-be dictator. A phalanx of New York Times reporters, featuring Carl Hulse, Michael Schmidt, and Peter Baker, ran down in this morning's Times many of the thread-pullers who are attempting behind the scenes to unravel President Biden's determination.

I reported down-thread that the virtual roll-call of delegates that would cement Biden's nomination is supposed to begin August 5th. Putting that off sends a very clear message, doesn't it?

...Mr. [Chuck] Schumer [Senate Majority Leader] weighed in this week to appeal to party leaders to hold off on beginning a swift virtual roll call they had considered starting as soon as next week to cement Mr. Biden as the nominee, according to a person familiar with his thinking who insisted on anonymity to describe it. The Senate leader spoke with Mr. [Hakeem] Jeffries [House Minority Leader], and both agreed to push the party to put off the start of that process, according to a second person familiar with their involvement, who also declined to be named discussing it.

Gov. Tim Walz of Minnesota, the co-chairman of the party’s rules committee, which determines when and how the nomination will proceed, called Jen O’Malley Dillon, the Biden campaign chief, on Tuesday afternoon to inform her that the roll call should be delayed, according to a person made aware of the call who described it on the condition of anonymity.

Bowing to the pressure, top Democratic National Committee officials announced on Wednesday that the virtual roll call would take place during the first week of August instead.

 

Money Isn't Everything, But It's Better Than Nothing

 

Article in yesterday's News and Observer highlights fundraising reports in the marquee NC House race between Democrat Nicole Sidman and turncoat Tricia Cotham:

Sidman, a congregational life director at Temple Beth El in Charlotte and the Democratic nominee for the southeast Mecklenburg County House District 105 seat, faces Cotham in November. From Feb. 18 to June 30, Sidman’s campaign raised $264,489.33 — more than four times as much as Cotham during the same period. 

Sidman has raised $317,597.60 this election season, compared to $151,230.49 for Cotham. Contributors to Sidman’s campaign were largely individual donors, while most of Cotham’s money during the period came from political action committees.

Money's not the end-all, be-all of political campaigns, but it's very often a sign of energy, and looking at Nicole Sidman's Facebook page reassures me that she does have boots on the ground because of a large and enthusiastic volunteer base. Meanwhile, Cotham has sugar-daddies whose pudge would preclude any hiking and door-knocking.

Josh Stein Needs To Get Out More

 

Headline in today's News and Observer: "Outspoken vs. Unknown: What Some Rural Voters Think of NC Gubernatorial Candidates." Guess who's the unknown one. Reading the article one realizes how counter-productive Stein's very limited campaign-in-public strategy has been. He only attends carefully controlled events and fundraisers where the crowds are mainly friendly or at least house-broken.

Those of us who follow North Carolina government obsessively know our Attorney General Josh Stein well. Stein led other states' attorneys general in establishing a framework for exacting payment from the nation's drug companies and distributors for the opioid epidemic. He was the first attorney general in the country to sue e-cigarette manufacturer Juul for unlawful marketing to minors. He's been a champion for consumers and a hawk pursuing price-gougers, especially like the tow company in Charlotte that hiked prices and fees during COVID. He has at times refused to defend the Republican General Assembly's unconstitutional laws, and he's been a champion of women's rights.

But as the McClatchy reporters found out, too many people have no idea who he is. Meanwhile his opponent for governor, the robust Mark Robinson, struts his bully stuff in all kinds of rural churches, which delights the vengeful Christians in the pews. Maybe Josh lacks "the common touch" and that's why his handlers keep him sequestered, but he's either gonna have to get out more or his tv budget is going to have to lower Robinson's approval rating much more definitively.

Joe Biden Has Less Than a Month To Drop Out

 

Once President Biden is nominated for the presidency by the National Democratic Convention, replacing him on the ballot will be fraught. The delegates will actually vote virtually on his nomination on August 5th, two weeks before the August 19 Convention in Chicago. The WashPost reports that election law experts say that if Biden drops out before he's officially nominated by the party, "replacing him on the ballot would be relatively straightforward." If he waited until after the delegates vote, then all hell could and would break loose.

If Biden were to drop out before delegates vote, then a legal challenge by Republicans to his replacement -- whoever that turned out to be -- would lack standing in the courts, because the decision on who the Democrats choose to run is their decision, not the Republican Party's.

The real problem for Democrats if Biden should wait to drop out until after he's officially nominated are the various ballot deadlines in different states -- the date when ballots have to start being printed. We don't want to go there.

Immediately following the Debate From Hell, I wrote that I wanted an open nominating convention -- let 'er rip and we could count the corpses later. I've changed my mind. Thomas Mills wrote on July 5th a compelling rationale for why Biden's replacement would have to be -- needs to be -- Kamala Harris. And I agree with him. She would strengthen several factions of the Democratic and progressive alliance, especially women and Black voters, and I believe she would help energize the most seriously unenergized portion of our coalition -- young voters.

Mainly, I think, with Kamala we would experience a great surge of relief that we were not doomed -- irrevocably doomed -- to another Trump presidency and that we at least have a fighting chance.

Rep. Ray Pickett Shouldn't Brag

 

So NC House Rep. Ray Pickett (R-Watauga) sent out a newsletter dated July 2nd in which he bragged that he helped pass the local bill, S 912, spinning that it's a great plan for enhanced democracy -- "ensure[s] that every resident's voice is heard in the election of local officials." S 912 is the attempt by Senator Ralph Hise to keep the voters of Watauga from rejecting by referendum his new gerrymander of both the County Commish and the Watauga School Board.

Pickett's bragging may be a trifle misplaced, since the destruction of the current non-partisan School Board by a gerrymander that will ensure it will become much more partisan and divided is widely hated by both Republicans and Democrats. The current School Board, which was not consulted nor warned that Hise was about to upend it, is composed of two Republicans, two Democrats, and one Unaffiliated member, and that body unanimously opposed the change.

Pickett doesn't vote in the best interests of the people of Watauga. He votes like Senator Hise tells him.

 

Happy Birthday, America!

 

Your new king can't wait to enjoy your obeisance!

I've Stopped Going to Tractor Supply

 

I was pleased when a brand new Tractor Supply store got built about a mile from my garden, which saved me a much longer trip to the garden center at the local Lowe's, and I spent a lot of money there on everything from a new manure fork to dog food. If I wanted to mingle with rural folks, Sunday just after noon was the time to visit, because lots of church-goers in their Sunday clothes made a stop there on their way home from church.

During the height of COVID, you never saw anyone in masks, including the cashiers, so I tended to stand out as maybe the only liberal in the store. I got a few side-eyes, but at my age the stinkeye doesn't much faze me.

The company had a good reputation nationally, especially for its diversity programs that encouraged voter registration and PRIDE festivals. Bloomberg praised it for promoting gender equality, while Newsweek called it one of the best U.S. companies for diversity.

But the current reign of MAGA hatefulness was bound to notice. So a conservative podcaster with a big following in Tennessee, where Tractor Supply is headquartered, posted a denunciation of the company because it supports queers. An employee had messaged the podcaster the inside poop that Tractor Supply was way too woke for his taste. “Start buying what you can from other places until Tractor Supply makes REAL changes,” the podcaster wrote on X on June 6. Other MAGA soldiers joined the boycott, and the company’s share price fell by 5 percent in the past month, according to the Financial Times.

So Tractor Supply caved to the bigots, issued a public letter recanting all its diversity efforts, and why on earth would I want to give any more money to a company with that little courage of conviction?

Chief Justice Paul Newby's Flag Merely Confirms What We Already Knew About Him

Paul Newby, Chief Justice of the NC Supreme Court, waited just hours (it seems) after the 2022 elections gave him his conservative majority to reverse the Court's previous ruling that gerrymandering of legislative districts violates the equal rights of citizens. Newby's newspeak: It's perfectly all right for the Republican majority in the General Assembly to stack the deck however it damn well pleases. Short version: Newby is an enemy of democracy.

So it came as no great surprise that the same Christian nationalist/MAGA escutcheon, the "Appeal to Heaven” or Pine Tree flag, that got Samuel Alito into hot water, was flying over Newby's beach property in Cartaret County (a house technically owned by Newby's wife, so there's another "my wife did it" excuse in the making) as recently as May 23rd.

Picture and story, NewsAndObserver, June 27

Newby told the N&O in a statement that he was given the flag as a gift before Jan. 6, 2021, and flies it during national holidays such as Memorial Day. 

“Until recently, we had no idea of the association of the ‘An Appeal to Heaven’ flag with anything other than its actual history — a history that reminds us to pray for our nation,” he said. “At no point did we intend the display of the flag to be a political statement, only a statement of our faith.”

Uh-huh. So Newby -- wholly innocent of political intent -- runs a flag up his pole, the sign-of-the-times meaning of which is totally mysterious to him. May 23rd, just incidentally, is the day after the New York Times ran its story on Alito's flag, which became the news of the nation.

And please forget any enforcement of judicial ethics in Newby's case. The Judicial Standards Commission is totally under Newby's thumb. He appoints six of the 14 members himself, and another eight are appointed by Berger/Moore in the General Assembly. 

Just Another Day in the Clown Car

 

Rep. George Cleveland,
cheerleading his H 1071 last Thursday

Let's put election deniers in charge of purging North Carolina's voter rolls! Yeah, baby!

Can't imagine why it's taken this long to think of the next brilliant solution to the greatest problem vexing North Carolina -- too many people voting.

NC House member George Cleveland (R-Onslow) just last Thursday introduced H 1071, a bill that would force all county boards of elections to establish a new system for investigating and correcting data provided by “election integrity” organizations to assist in maintenance of the state’s voter registration lists.

In case you haven't been paying attention, "election integrity" is code among election deniers for using idiotic claims of massive voter fraud to harass as many progressive voters as possible, particularly those with skin pigmentation slightly darker than George Cleveland's. This is merely another attempt to take power away from our State Board of Elections and give the right to vote to partisan manipulators who can, on any given day, find hoards of people who need to be eliminated (and not just from voter rolls).

In a House discussion of Cleveland's proposed legislation (reported on by Clayton Henkel),

“How is a voter integrity group defined?” asked [Democrat] Rep. Ashton Wheeler Clemmons.

“Actually, it’s two or three people who have years of experience in data collection and data usage. There’s two that are prominent here in North Carolina,” Cleveland responded....

“So my question is can you name a group?” asked [Democrat] Rep. Allison Dahle.

“I can name two,” said Cleveland. “I don’t know what the gentleman’s real name is. It’s Totes Legit. He has consistently over the past several years sent voter list problems to the state board. And there’s a Ms. Snow out in Morganton.”

“I didn’t hear the names,” Dahle asked him to repeat himself.

“Totes Legit. That’s what he calls himself. I don’t know what the gentleman’s name is.”

Seriously? Reporter Henkel went looking for Ms. Snow and "Totes Legit" (who sounds totally legit):

In Georgia, anonymous claims of voter fraud from someone going by the name ‘Totes Legit’ were dismissed last October. It’s unclear if that is the same person Cleveland was referencing.

The second person Cleveland mentioned, Carol Snow of the NC Audit Force filed a complaint with the elections board claiming inadequate maintenance of the computerized registered voter list put the state out of compliance with the 2002 federal voting law.

Snow presented examples of what appeared to be duplicate voter registrations. In one example, a son with the same name as his father was mistakenly checked in as his father. The father and son both received ballots and each voted once.

As NC Newline reported in April, the Board of Elections rejected Snow’s complaint about duplicate voter registrations

What is funnier? That this walking joke from Onslow County has introduced his bright new idea for interfering with the work of election officials or that H 1071 by last Friday had been fast-tracked through the House Rules Committee and three subsequent floor votes (66-45) and now heads to the Senate. Though it didn't get there in time for action, as the Senate adjourned sine die. Thank God. But this will come back next term. You can bet on it.

Religion in Schools

 

By Jack Yordy, guest-posting:

She who would be Superintendent
of all NC Schools -- Michele Morrow

Religious schooling is familiar to me. As a graduate of Christ The King (CTK) Catholic High School in Huntersville, North Carolina, religion wasn’t just in my school. It was the central idea of my schooling. The core tenet of CTK’s teaching philosophy was "faith through reason." 

Teachers and students alike had difficulty grappling with that ideological framework. In my first year at CTK, we learned about the Big Bang and the theory of evolution in history class. The next class of the day was Theology, where our teacher did not just call those ideas into question but claimed that they were unequivocally false. Between claims about homosexuals infiltrating the Church, he also liked to discuss the difference between Christianity and Catholicism, highlighting with vigor the "heresies" of other Christian doctrines and biblical interpretations, and of course, his belief that god put dinosaurs on earth to "test our faith." 

One day in my Junior year, after I had come out and was known to be gay by both my peers and professors, my history teacher decided to spend an entire class session talking about homosexuality. He asked us, “Well, why would gays want to get married? What’s the point other than getting government benefits?” and claimed that gay people knew they weren’t truly married if they weren’t married in the church. He finished this diatribe with a point directed at me and my mother, who was also the biology teacher at the school, saying in front of my classmates, “If you let your son be homosexual, it’s the same as letting him jump off a bridge." One of my classmates brought this to the administration, who decided that my history teacher was speaking within Catholic doctrine and therefore was not in the wrong. 

On Thursday, June 27th, the Oklahoma State Superintendent mandated that the Bible be taught in Oklahoma public schools. As a person who went to a Catholic school, these are some of the questions that I believe must be asked when we’re thinking about teaching religious doctrine in schools: 

• Which doctrines and interpretations of the Bible are we going to teach?

• Will we allow or encourage teachers to contradict scientific claims that are universally accepted but are in conflict with the Bible?

• Does it mean vilifying queer students and students of other religious and cultural backgrounds who don’t fit into a teacher’s interpretation of the Bible? 

• If a student disagrees with a teacher’s Biblical interpretation, will their grades be affected? 

  
  

These are not rhetorical questions. When voters go to vote in North Carolina’s state superintendent election this year, they should be asking these questions because the Republican candidate Michele Morrow is not thinking of them at all. She will likely try to implement the Oklahoma state policy in tandem with other Republican states regardless of the chaos in classrooms that will follow. Voters in this election must consider if they want to live in a state where these questions need to be answered and where their tax dollars are spent, through private school vouchers ("Opportunity Scholarships"), to confuse and punish students without the same religious views as their teachers.

Of Course Trump Lied (Like a Cheap Walmart Rug), But It Doesn't Matter

 

Many of my fellow Democrats took the lemon that was Thursday night and have been busily making lemonade, occasionally spiked with a good dash of grenadine and a jigger of Tequila. "Look at all the lies Trump told!" they shout, giving ample evidence and seeking any comfort they can find in these stormy seas. The best fact-checker in the business, Daniel Dale, did a whole segment about the lies on CNN, or if you'd prefer to read his analysis at length, go here.

None of it actually matters, especially in that part of the electorate that I work most closely with, college-age skeptics who are more than likely registered Unaffiliated and who generally distrust both political parties, but who are children of the age in that style matters more than substance. In fact, style is substance. One person looked alive and in control. The other didn't. That's awfully hard to overcome among people who spend their lives watching rather than reading (though Joe's performance the next day in Raleigh may have helped, but how many saw that speech compared to the millions who tuned in to the debate?)

I love that man. I memorably got to sit in the Senate Judiciary Committee hearing room in 1981 and watch Judiciary Chair Joe Biden grill Reagan's nominee Sandra Day O'Connor for the Supreme Court. With grace and good humor, he spared with her, and I've remembered him ever since as a good man who upholds the best values of our history. The morning after that terrible debate, I posted down-column a cri de coeur begging for some alternative to Joe, but I know that's not going to happen. We've been dealt our hand, and we have to play it as bravely as we can.

But we can't kid ourselves that the debate didn't hurt Joe's chances in North Carolina, especially among the unaffiliated and more especially the young unaffiliated. Which means for us personally as campaign operatives that all our door-knocking persuasion shifts to the down-ballot -- the governor's race, all the rest of the Council of State races, judge races, legislative seats, and local candidates -- a universe certainly rife with MAGA extremism at every level and a fiery determination for revenge and retribution.

Give Us an Open Democratic Convention!

 

Well that was awful. A catastrophe. You know what I'm talking about. Trump is a crisis for our nation, and now Joe Biden is a crisis for the Democratic Party.

Joe needs to step aside. Let us have an open Democratic presidential convention in August. A loud, angry, smelly political convention that nominates someone capable of beating Donald Trump. Let the power-brokers do their broking. Let the pressure groups apply their pressure. Churn that cream into butter. Someone will emerge that we can all get behind.

Gavin Newsom, who's shown himself fully capable of going straight for Trump's esophagus. Pete Buttigieg, who's supernaturally smart and can turn Republican ignorance back on itself. Stacey Abrams. Jamie Raskin, who knows a poltroon when he sees one. Hakeem Jeffries. Joe Neguse. Hell, Beto O'Rourke.

I'm sure Kamala Harris would put herself forward, and maybe she could rally everyone. Someone is going to have to rally everyone, and I'll be good with whoever that is. (I don't think Joe Manchin would dare.)

Give us a genuine open convention, and let's see if we can turn this ship around.

The Corruption Destroying the Town of Summerfield

 

A tweet from NC House member Pricey Harrison (Guilford Co.) last night caught my eye, because it reveals so much about the pay-to-play corruption of the North Carolina General Assembly under its current Republican super-majority:

#ncga votes to strip #Summerfield of a significant portion of its town at the behest of a developer who happens to be a large campaign donor. The largest deannexation in #NC history. Coming to a community near you soon. The best Legislature money can buy. #ncpol

The bill is H 909, "Various Local Provisions."  "Local" bills are convenient cover for the big hand of Raleigh meddling in local municipalities, usually for the sake and profit of special interests who want things the local city won't otherwise give them. The Summerfield deannexation is contained in Section 10 of H 909 and is shocking in its thoroughness of removing a huge portion of the town from control of the town.

Summerfield may ring a bell, if you followed last year's attempt by Senate boss Phil Berger to get new gambling casinos in the state. Turns out H 909 is the second attempt to deannex much of Summerfield, as it was part of Berger's original plan to help out the casino gambling industry. I wrote this last September:

Look what else Berger's got up to because of that casino:

So Wednesday (this week), Phil Berger gets the Senate to vote to de-annex almost 1,000 acres of the little town of Summerfield in Guilford County, pop. 11,000, a bedroom community suburb of Greensboro that has stringent zoning laws about development. Berger takes the land away from Summerfield and gives it to Guilford County. "The de-annexation bill was requested by developer David Couch, who wants to build apartments and other housing" on at least some of those 1,000 acres. The track happens to lie 10 miles from the casino site. Who wouldn't notice it was going to be high-density housing for the hundreds of low-wage workers a gambling casino will need -- the dealers, floor-walkers, servers, security, and maintenance workers. Exactly the kind of development that an upscale suburban bedroom community like Summerfield would reject -- and, yes, it's a class thing. (NOTE: Berger has constantly pumped up the idea of the casino as a great job-creator for local people. But it's sobering to know that the "Average Casino Dealer Salary" in North Carolina -- Eastern Band Cherokee casino and the Catawba Two Kings casino -- currently: $27,429 per annum, or $13.79 an hour.)

Pricey Harrison doesn't say so, but David Couch was "the large campaign donor" she speaks of. He gave some $11,000 to Phil Berger's campaign.

Whatever else you call it, it's government corruption in plain sight.

Local news coverage by WGHP, wherein Mr. Berger figures prominently:

Darren Staley Is a Democratic Hero

Way back at the beginning of last December, I wrote about Democrat Darren Staley, carrying the torch for working people in NC Senate Dist. 36 (Wilkes, Alexander, Yadkin, and Surry, about as red as it gets), and I praised his common roots and his struggle to overcome a hard life (interview with Darren Staley). He did overcome difficult circumstances with native smarts and determination. Wilkes Community College offered a belated education -- he had dropped out of high school to take factory work -- and now Staley has a master's degree and works full-time for a small business that provides services to people with disabilities. He sits on several committees that advocate for people across the behavioral health spectrum. But he's very much a part of the fabric of his Senate district: "I am literally just a guy in a mobile home typing this from my kitchen table."

Senate District 36 looks hopeless for a Democrat because it's rated R+26, but Staley has proven a doughty contender, raising enough small-dollar donations to make a showing on a stage where Democrats usually don't even show up. Daley points at what recently happened in a special election in a deep-red Ohio Congressional district that was rated R+30. The Democrat in the race, a first-time candidate with no experience, running against a veteran Republican office-holder, came within 10 points of beating the Republican in a race he should have lost by 30 points. Staley commented on Facebook:

Now, a special election in Ohio is not a general election in North Carolina. But I think it says something about where voters are. They may not change their political affiliation or suddenly decide to vote the other side this cycle up and down the ballot, but they are paying attention.

They are realizing that a totally "safe seat" for one party or the other means that the person in that seat doesn't really have to pay attention to their issues. That the person in that seat is best served by only agreeing with the most extreme side of their party so that they don't get a primary challenge.

People are fed up with that.

I think Darren Staley is right: People are fed up with the heavy hand of partisan politics that's used to suppress, to hold down, to silence, to maintain a status quo of one-sided power and control that benefits no one but the powerful.

Last night Staley published a thread on Twitter that's worth quoting at some length:

I'm a unique candidate, but my story is not unique. So many people in my district have been impacted by some part of my story. Single mothers. Single fathers. Factory workers. Laid off factory workers. People who live in starter homes or trailers. People who have no health insurance. People with disabilities. People without access to quality education or quality healthcare. People who pay their power bill two days before the cutoff notice. People with student loan debt. People who depend on Social Security and Medicare and Medicaid and SNAP benefits. People who can't afford child care.

I have also, more recently, seen the small business side too. I understand that we need regulation, but it can't be one-size-fits-all. I know about the small business bubble ... when you are successful enough that people like what you are selling, but you can't yet afford additional staff to grow. You can't afford an in-house IT person. You can't afford a good health care plan for your staff. Anytime you give an across the board raise to existing employees, your comp premiums increase because it is based solely on payroll. But your corporate competitors don't have that problem. 

...I spend a lot of time talking to the Republicans in this district. All of them who have been impacted by one aspect of my story or another. A lot of them don't vote often. But in the past two days, I have had a half dozen Republicans in the district reach out to me about my Facebook posts on gerrymandering. They don't like it once they see the facts. It strikes against their basic sense of fairness. Same thing when I talk about vouchers and public education funding....

My whole intention in making this run was to bring people out of their bubble. To show people in this district, regardless of party, you DO have a choice. You CAN change this bullshit. You MUST send a message. NO party owns a district. NO vote should be taken for granted....

I've had a hard life, some by circumstance and some of my own making. I want to make the struggles we all have a little bit easier. That message is resonating, because it is true. It is the only reason I am doing it. And if ya'll didn't know that you wouldn't even be reading this....

I have donated to the Darren Staley campaign, and so can you, here. We need him, and we need more Democratic candidates like him.