An Upset Brewing in the 5th CD?

  

The Cook Political Report has moved NC-05 from Solid Republican to Likely Republican.

• The district's Cook Partisan Voting Index is R+9.

• Virginia Foxx won her last general election with 59.5%.

• Democrat Chuck Hubbard has raised approximately $863,000, according to the October 14 FEC reporting.

• Foxx had raised approximately $2.19 million by that reporting date.

Cook's rating categories mean:

• Solid Republican: Not considered competitive.

• Likely Republican: Still a clear Republican advantage, but an upset is possible.

   

Dirty Tricks in the Alaska Senate Race

 

“Mistah Kurtz—he dead.” 

--Joseph Conrad, Part III,  Heart of Darkness

 

The two Dan Sullivans: The Senator on the right

 

Kellen Browning's outing of the Peltola campaign this morning in the NYTimes is first-rate reporting. The Alaska Senate candidate's top aides, working with "a mysterious Midwestern operative," apparently participated in a scheme to get someone else named Dan Sullivan on the ballot to confuse voters and draw votes away from the actual Dan Sullivan, Republican Senator (though on the Alaska ballot, the sitting senator is identified as "Incumbent").

See, Alaska has a system of allowing the top four finishers in the state's primary -- no matter their party -- to be on the fall ballot, because they also use ranked-choice tabulations. There are actually three registered Republicans to choose from for Alaska's US Senator on November 3rd, along with one Democrat, Mary Peltola. It appears that the mysterious political operative from Ohio, who used the state's "buckeye" nickname in his email address, was responsible pretty much single-handedly for recruiting both of the other Republicans. It's obvious that splitting the Republican vote among several candidates -- two of them with the same name -- can only help Mary Peltola, and the latest odds right now are on Peltola's winning this race.

The mysterious operative has a name, Jerid Kurtz, and an employment history. He was once upon a time former Congressman Tim Ryan's press secretary. He then went to work for the Ohio Democratic Party as communications direction, and he eventually went professional as co-owner of Wingspan Strategies, a political consulting firm whose Google presence seems to have vanished. Kurtz comes off in Browning's reporting as not only the idea man for packing the ballot with multiple Dan Sullivans but also the on-the-ground chameleon seducer who sought face-to-face meetings in brew pubs with the chumps being targeted for recruitment. Kurtz used aliases when he approached prospects (to one man he was "Zane"). Kurtz was charming and persuasive, encouraging a potential recruit into thinking they were special and moreover needed. He also promised valuable (though unspecified) campaign support, and there was a Peltola-allied super PAC that was willing to throw a little money toward boosting name-recognition for anyone who might divide the Republican vote. For his very successful efforts -- until, that is, this all got reported -- Kurtz brought home some $87,000 for Wingspan Strategies. The Peltola-allied super-PAC 49th State PAC paid the bill. 

Kurtz looks like a late-arriving Nixonian dirty-trickster. Either this scandal will kill his future as a political strategist or it will catapult him into a higher bracket. These days ambitious people enjoy skillful underhandedness. The scandal of course taints Mary Pertola and is upsetting her applecart just 5 days from the election. Talk about October surprises. Also looking bad in all this is the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee (DSCC), which pushed Kurtz on the Pertola people. Elisa Rios, Peltola's campaign manager at the time this scheme went into effect, was fired in August. She spilled all the beans about Jerid Kurtz and the ballot-stuffing to reporter Browning -- seeking revenge, I suspect, for her firing. She's also Browning's chief source about Mr. Kurtz, so her characterizations of him as a hustler and performative braggart might ought to be taken with a salt chaser.

Browning reports that not only did Kurtz recruit two other Republicans to run in the primary, he also helped lean on another Democrat, David Leslie, who had finished in the top four in the primary and would presumably dilute the Peltola vote: "That Democrat, a progressive named David Leslie, quickly faced calls from his party to withdraw. One of those callers, Mr. Leslie said in an interview, was Jerid Kurtz. Mr. Kurtz met with Mr. Leslie in person, at a cafe in Fairbanks, according to a person familiar with the exchange. Mr. Leslie soon agreed to drop out." 

When Leslie dropped out, that left room for the second Republican, Gerald Heikes, who had finished fifth in the primary. Heikes, a drywall contractor, told Browning that he was recruited to run “by a guy from the Midwest.” Heikes had already thought about running for office and evidently thought the call from the mysterious guy from the Midwest was really the voice of God, calling him to service. Kurtz knew how to pick his victims.

 

Seems Like a Longshot. But Worth a Shot

October 20, 2026: The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, the Democratic Governors Association, and the Nevada State Democratic Party filed a lawsuit in federal court seeking to block the Trump administration from threatening state election officials with criminal prosecution during the 2026 midterm elections. The plaintiffs assert that the Trump Administration is supporting an “effort to unlawfully federalize elections” and threatening state officials that “they will all go to jail for a long period of time” if they do not comply with the Administration’s demands. Plaintiffs allege that intimidating state officials violates Section 11(b) of the Voting Rights Act and the U.S. Constitution. The plaintiffs ask the court to bar the administration from threatening election officials and from directing states to remove registered voters from the rolls, withhold their ballots or refuse to count ballots they have cast. 

Oct. 23, 2026: Plaintiffs filed a motion for expedited discovery.

Oct. 26, 2026 (yesterday): Plaintiffs filed a motion for a temporary restraining order and preliminary injunction. 

COMING UP NEXT 

Oct. 29, 2026 (Thursday this week): The court will hold a hearing on the plaintiffs motion for expedited discovery.

The Elias Group is representing the Democratic plaintiffs. 

A Stunning Reminder That This Bunch Always Gets Away With It

 

WASHINGTON Sept. 2025 -- The Justice Department shut down its probe into allegations that Trump border czar Tom Homan accepted a Cava restaurant bag containing a $50,000 cash bribe last year.

The alleged payment to Homan was made as part of a sting by undercover FBI agents during the Biden administration, with the G-men presenting themselves as businessmen seeking border security contracts with the federal government. Homan allegedly promised he'd use his influence on their behalf.

In dismissing the investigation, the DOJ reasoned that since Tom Homan wasn't a Federal employee at the time, no foul, no problem.

Maybe next Tuesday will slow down the open corruption. It won't stop it, at least not for two more years, but slowing it down would be welcome. Hauling a few people in for a dressing down in Congress. For what good that will do, since DJT owns the Justice Department as his dual hit squad/shield from accountability, and will most likely continue to own it until January 20, 2029, I don't look for a lot of actual justice calling the most egregious malefactors to account, like Jared Kushner, the son-in-law who became an international negotiator for "peace" and who, just incidentally, has certainly been taking a piece: Some of his financial relationships are documented, notably the $2 billion Saudi investment in Kushner's private equity firm after he left the White House. The new book by Matthew Cole (Princes and Thieves) alleges that foreign leaders -- mostly potentates in the Middle East -- provided billions through secret accounts for Kushner's personal use and to influence diplomacy. 

Tom Homan was on the make. Kushner's been on the make. They're all on the make. It's grotesque. It's got to end.

Signs of the (End?) Times

 

Balkcom

 

The Trump super PAC No Going Back, an offshoot of Trump’s Super PAC, MAGA Inc., created to help Republicans retain the majority in the U.S. House, has canceled more than $1 million in planned television ads supporting Jennifer Balkcom, the party’s candidate in North Carolina’s 11th Congressional District. The cancellations represent about $918,200 in lost advertising revenue for WLOS and at least $155,150 for WYFF (in Greenville, SC).

The move indicates Balkcom is now dependent largely on her own ability to raise money and attract attention through campaign events and media interaction.

[Asheville Watchdog]

Laurie Buckhout, the Republican nominee for North Carolina’s 1st Congressional District, is backed by Leading The Future, a super PAC funded in part by AI industry leaders, which has committed $140 million to Buckhout's win. Through its affiliate, American Mission, Leading The Future spent $500,000 supporting Buckhout during the Republican primary.

Buckhout is trying to unseat Democrat Don Davis in a district recently gerrymandered (again!) to make it easier to beat Davis. Her campaign has been limping, especially after it came out that Kalshi, an online prediction market, suspended her for placing bets on her own election campaign.

[Cardinal & Pine]  

 

Republican Rep. Richard Hudson has since 2024 led the National Republican Congressional Committee, responsible for finding sure-fire winners to run in open districts. In a real sense, Hudson is a head-hunter. Suddenly, the hunter has become the hunted. The NRCC which Hudson oversees recently began funding ads to help Hudson, who won six of his seven previous races by double digits. This year, Hudson’s Democratic challenger is Richard Ojeda, who in at least one poll had pulled within 4 points of Hudson.

[WRAL]

Hudson began using a new campaign photo, dressed in hunting camo and cradling a rifle. Some wag on X commented about the sharp crease in those khakis, and Democrat Ojeda mocked the image, saying: “Richard Hudson is sweating through his off-the-rack camo.” Ojeda concluded that Hudson had looked at the polls, panicked, and “grabbed the company credit card” -- that is, ordered the group he chairs to spend money on him.

 

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Early Voting Update of Particular Interest

 

This morning, Carolina Forward tweeted: "Democrats continue to dominate early voting, with a particular strength among low-propensity voters."

The Unaffiliated vote in Watauga is up to 44% of the total, the highest turnout ever in any mid-term since 2018 and including 2018. Right now, Democrats account for 36% of the total vote so far. Republicans, 20%. Carolina Forward's Turnout Tracker. 

Tomorrow dawns the first day of the last week of early voting. Don't nap.

 

Hype for Bodnar in Montana

 

I don't have a lot of connection to Montana, so I haven't been following the US Senate race out there ... until today. There's an Independent in the race, Seth Bodnar, who's coming on strong and pulling even with the Republican candidate in at least one poll. There's also a Democrat on the ballot, polling at about 17% (more on her below). Here's a Bodnar campaign video that I especially liked:

 

 

Seth Bodnar is a Green Beret, former GE Transportation executive ("chief digital officer"), president of the University of Montana for the last eight years -- and a very sudden political rising star. I've examined his issues page -- surprisingly extensive and often specific on details -- and he rarely deviates from what I'd call progressive political ideology. He's not a liberal on guns, but consider the state he's seeking to represent: "He opposes a federal assault weapons ban, a new universal background check mandate, and a federal red-flag law," according to his website. He's pro-choice and a pretty fierce defender of Montana's public lands, vowing to oppose any sale or transfer of any acerage. He also -- along with the Republican in the race -- takes a hardline about new data centers.

That Republican in the race, Kurt Alme, is a Harvard-trained attorney and longtime veteran of government work, directing Montana's Department of Revenue, serving as Montana's U.S. attorney under DJT, and working as budget director under Gov. Greg Gianforte. The seat is open because its current inhabitant, Sen. Steve Daines, announced he wouldn't be running for another term literally at the last minute of the open filing period, and Kurt Alme walked in, like, a minute later and filed for the seat. Clearly, they had hatched a plan for the hand-off. Alme has the blessing of the GOP establishment in Montana, and the resentment of some rival camps in the party who were blindsided by Daines's sudden retirement.

The Democratic candidate, Alani Bankhead, served 21 years in the U.S. Air Force, retiring as a lieutenant colonel. Her assignments included counterintelligence and human-intelligence operations, work in Iraq, and protective security for senior Pentagon officials. After military service, she became a life coach. Running in the Democratic primary against four others last June, Bankhead surprised the field, getting 46% of the vote. The political action committee Progressive Vet spent millions promoting her candidacy. They stopped supporting her after the primary, perhaps flummoxed by not one but now two distinguished veterans running for the same office. And the DCCC also announced it wouldn't be sending any support, and prominent Democrats, like Sen. John Tester, began endorsing Bodnar as the more viable candidate, and it seems likely that Sen. Chuck Schumer was part of the pressure campaign on Bankhead. In an October 9 Washington Post op-ed, Bankhead squealed on a sitting but unnamed Democratic senator who had allegedly offered her a job, which she presumed was conditional on leaving the race. Then about a week later, in an interview for Montana's PBS, Bankhead said she had been offered a made-up position at the DNC -- again, a particular job that would require her giving up her Senate campaign. The DNC denied any such offer. And Bankhead has steadfastly refused to end her campaign, while polling puts her consistently under 20% support.

I have my doubts that Bodnar can win with Bankhead splitting the Democratic vote. 

Friday in Salisbury

 

Students at Livingstone College in Salisbury, an historically Black college founded way back in 1879, chose yesterday, Friday, for their show of strength and civic duty. Photo lifted from the Rowan County Democratic Party Facebook feed.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Second NC A&T March to Early Voting

 

NC A&T students -- denied an early voting site on campus which they had in 2024 -- staged a second march to the polls yesterday in Greensboro, and we hear it may have been even bigger than the first one.

Photo Lynn Bonner/NC Newsline

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Lynn Bonner reported that the students organized the 40-minute walk from campus to an early voting site, "partly to do their civic duty and partly as a show of strength." Here's video shot by Bonner.