Not the Final Map, But In the Running

According to PoliticsWolf, here's the latest North Carolina congressional map the state House GOP is considering. It's likely to secure an 8-5 GOP majority. Caution: Nothing is certain. At least a dozen other maps are also circulating.

FOOTNOTE
The Winston-Salem Journal is treating this map as a very strong contender for being adopted in the NC House.

How and Why Trump Dropped His Extortion Scheme

Volodymyr Zelensky, with his extortionist
on Sept. 25 at the UN

The Republican defense against the extortion-for-military-aid impeachment case against Trump emerged yesterday out of the mouth of the mouthiest Republican on the congressional panel:

“You have to ask yourself: What did President Zelensky actually do to get the aid? The answer is nothing. He did nothing. He didn’t open any investigations. He didn’t call Attorney General Bill Barr. He didn’t do any of the things that House Democrats say that he was being forced and coerced and threatened to do. He didn’t do anything because he didn’t have to.” 

--Congressman Jim Jordan (R-Oh.), yesterday

We'll set aside the obvious here, that trying to extort someone is the crime, whether you're successful or not. What I'm interested in is the timeline under Trump's decision to release the military aid to Ukraine and call off the demand for political dirt on the Bidens. It's pretty clear the whistleblower's whistling, along with the resulting spotlight, ended the scheme.

Timeline: How/Why Extortion Got Scotched

July 3 -- The day that Col. Alexander Vindman discovers there's an unexplained hold on aid to Ukraine.

July 10 -- National Security Advisor John Bolton cuts short a White House meeting with Ukrainian officials when Gordon Sondland says he has an agreement with Mick Mulvaney that Ukraine's president would get a meeting with Trump if Ukraine agreed to launch investigations. Thrown out of Bolton's office, Sondland nevertheless kept pressing his "drug deal" for an investigation of the Bidens. So far, the Ukrainians don't appear to know that military aid is being withheld.

July 18 -- In a secure call with national security officials, a staff member of the White House Office of Management and Budget announces there's a freeze on Ukraine aid until further notice, based on a presidential order to the budget office. How Col. Vindman knew about the freeze over two weeks earlier is unclear, but he probably knew it via John Bolton.

July 25 -- Trump talks to Ukrainian President Zelensky, complains that the Ukrainians aren't really very grateful for all the help they get from the US and asks for a favor.

August 12 -- Whistleblower files his formal complaint (though he had previously filed a draft complaint anonymously to the CIA's general counsel). He knows all about the attempted extortion of Ukraine, the holding up of military aid, and the role of Rudy Guiliani.

August 13 -- White House lawyers learn of the whistleblower's complaint.

August 14 -- Justice Department learns of the whistleblower's complaint, declines to follow up with investigation.

August ?, prior to the 28th -- There's worry in Kiev: Catherine Croft, the special adviser for Ukraine at the State Department, says two Ukrainians reach out to her to ask about the status of the military assistance.

August 28 -- Politico.com publishes "Trump holds up Ukraine military aid meant to confront Russia." That cat is now fully out of the bag.

September 9 -- Three US House committees launch the investigation into allegations that Trump, his personal lawyer Rudy Giuliani, and possibly others, tried to extort the Ukrainian government to help the president's reelection campaign by digging up dirt on Joe Biden and his family.

September 11 -- Trump suddenly and without explanation releases the aid to Ukraine.

November 13 -- Rep. Jim Jordan says there can't be anything wrong because Ukraine got its aid and never had to produce any dirt on Biden. So where's the problem?

Urban/Suburban/Rural Counties in North Carolina

As always, grateful to political scientist Michael Bitzer for digging into the urban/suburban/rural distribution of votes in North Carolina. He's interested in testing whether the national suburban trend away from Trumpism (much discussed here since 2017) will hold true in NC. He seems to think it will.

Nearly thirty percent of NC's registered voters reside within a central city of the state, with another quarter being within the central city's county, making for 55 percent of NC voters in just 19 out of the state's 100 counties.

Another quarter of the voters reside in the 27 surrounding suburban counties, leaving barely two out of ten voters residing in state's rural counties.

Region	County	Central City
Urban	ALAMANCE	Burlington
Urban	BUNCOMBE	Asheville
Urban	BURKE	Hickory-Lenior-Morganton
Urban	CALDWELL	Hickory-Lenior-Morganton
Urban	CATAWBA	Hickory-Lenior-Morganton
Urban	CRAVEN	New Bern
Urban	CUMBERLAND	Fayetteville
Urban	DURHAM	Durham
Urban	EDGECOMBE	Rocky Mount
Urban	FORSYTH	Winston-Salem
Urban	GUILFORD	Greensboro
Urban	MECKLENBURG	Charlotte
Urban	NASH	Rocky Mount
Urban	NEW HANOVER	Wilmington
Urban	ONSLOW	Jacksonville
Urban	ORANGE	Chapel Hill
Urban	PITT	Greenville
Urban	WAKE	Raleigh
Urban	WAYNE	Goldsboro

Region	County	Central City
Suburban	ALEXANDER	Hickory-Lenior-Morganton
Suburban	BRUNSWICK	Myrtle Beach SC
Suburban	CABARRUS	Charlotte
Suburban	CHATHAM	Durham
Suburban	CURRITUCK	Virginia Beach VA
Suburban	DAVIDSON	Winston-Salem
Suburban	DAVIE	Winston-Salem
Suburban	FRANKLIN	Raleigh
Suburban	GASTON	Charlotte
Suburban	GATES	Virginia Beach VA
Suburban	HAYWOOD	Asheville
Suburban	HENDERSON	Asheville
Suburban	HOKE	Fayetteville
Suburban	IREDELL	Charlotte
Suburban	JOHNSTON	Raleigh
Suburban	JONES	New Bern
Suburban	LINCOLN	Charlotte
Suburban	MADISON	Asheville
Suburban	PAMLICO	New Bern
Suburban	PENDER	Wilmington
Suburban	PERSON	Durham
Suburban	RANDOLPH	Greensboro
Suburban	ROCKINGHAM	Greensboro
Suburban	ROWAN	Charlotte
Suburban	STOKES	Winston-Salem
Suburban	UNION	Charlotte
Suburban	YADKIN	Winston-Salem

Region	County
Rural	ALLEGHANY
Rural	ANSON
Rural	ASHE
Rural	AVERY
Rural	BEAUFORT
Rural	BERTIE
Rural	BLADEN
Rural	CAMDEN
Rural	CARTERET
Rural	CASWELL
Rural	CHEROKEE
Rural	CHOWAN
Rural	CLAY
Rural	CLEVELAND
Rural	COLUMBUS
Rural	DARE
Rural	DUPLIN
Rural	GRAHAM
Rural	GRANVILLE
Rural	GREENE
Rural	HALIFAX
Rural	HARNETT
Rural	HERTFORD
Rural	HYDE
Rural	JACKSON
Rural	LEE
Rural	LENOIR
Rural	MACON
Rural	MARTIN
Rural	MCDOWELL
Rural	MITCHELL
Rural	MONTGOMERY
Rural	MOORE
Rural	NORTHAMPTON
Rural	PASQUOTANK
Rural	PERQUIMANS
Rural	POLK
Rural	RICHMOND
Rural	ROBESON
Rural	RUTHERFORD
Rural	SAMPSON
Rural	SCOTLAND
Rural	STANLY
Rural	SURRY
Rural	SWAIN
Rural	TRANSYLVANIA
Rural	TYRRELL
Rural	VANCE
Rural	WARREN
Rural	WASHINGTON
Rural	WATAUGA
Rural	WILKES
Rural	WILSON
Rural	YANCEY

Welcome to the Woods, Babe. Mark Johnson Is Running for Higher Office

Coy, boy.

Mark Johnson, who since 2016 has been NC's controversial Superintendent of Public Instruction, as late as last Friday was saying he was definitely going to run for office again in 2020, but for what he couldn't say yet. There are offices higher than Superintendent that might benefit from his freshness, said his spokesman, Jonathan Felts (who also likes to be called "Johnson's political consigliere"). Maybe lieutenant governor. Maybe even governor. "...Change is needed at the top here in North Carolina. Read into that what you will," Felts emailed the WRAL on Saturday.

Today we know. Johnson's running to follow Dan Forest into the Office of the Lieutenant Governor. He will appear on next March's Republican primary ballot along with a host of others (see below).

For months Johnson has refused to say whether he would run for reelection. We all thought the coyness had to do with the rocky ride he's had as superintendent. According to the NandO,

The last three years have seen Johnson lobby for school choice and personalized learning. He’s redirected state funds to purchase computers for teachers, a process which has drawn complaints from critics about the process used and the money spent. ("Report: Thousands of Mark Johnson's iPads are gathering dust in Raleigh")

Over the last several months, Johnson has faced scrutiny over his decision to award an $8.3 million contract to Istation to test the reading skills of K-3 students. He bypassed the recommendations of an evaluation committee to use a different vendor, accusing the group of using a flawed process to explain his actions. 

Johnson has fought with the N.C. Association of Educators over his statements about teacher pay, his support for charter schools and his opposition to the last two mass teacher protests that caused schools to be closed while educators marched on lawmakers in Raleigh.

Kind of a tool.

A smug tool. He's a lawyer from Forsyth. Was in his first term as a member of the Forsyth School Board when he decided to run for superintendent of the whole state in 2016 against long-time incumbent June Atkinson. Before that, he had taught public school for two years. Slim credentials for such a show pony. Johnson's a photo-op legend in just three years. He has his photo taken a lot -- holding books, looking over the shoulders of children, grinning, grinning, grinning.



The Republican Primary Field for Lt Gov

In addition to Mark Johnson, these are the announced Republican candidates (as compiled by T. Heung Hui):

▪ Buddy Bengel, New Bern, a businessman and owner of the Morehead City Marlins baseball team.

▪ Former U.S. Rep. Renee Ellmers who served three terms in Congress before losing a GOP primary in 2016. 

▪ Deborah Cochran, former Mount Airy mayor. 

▪ Former state Rep. Scott Stone, Mecklenburg County. 

▪ Mark Robinson, Greensboro. 

▪ Greg Gebhardt, Holly Springs, a NC National Guard solider.

The Democratic Primary Field for Lt Gov

▪ State Rep. Yvonne Holley, Raleigh, in her fourth term in the NC House.

▪ State Sen. Terry Van Duyn, Asheville, a member of the legislature since 2014. 

▪ Hoke County Commissioner Allen Thomas. 

▪ Bill Toole, a Charlotte lawyer and a former chairman of the Gaston County Democratic Party. 

▪ State Rep. Chaz Beasley, Charlotte, serving his second term.

Sen. Thom Tillis Gets Stuck To a Pants Leg

A new species of beggar's lice

You know what beggar's lice is, right? Little seeds that are like sticky burs that will attach themselves to your pants leg or to your roaming house cat. Very hard to pick off.

That's Senator Tillis right now, attached to Twitterman's every whim. AP reporter Gary Robertson wrote a lengthy account of Tillis's conversion to an ardent Trump supporter. The headline writer who put the title on that article used the imagery of beggar's lice: "Tillis Has Latched On To Trump."

Little sticky burs have to suffer some indignity, though, as Tillis did at a Republican fundraiser last Thursday at Twitterman's big fancy hotel in DeeCee (Mugstomp-on-the-Potomac). The president in his remarks called out Tillis sitting in the audience, made him stand up for some public humiliation, said that Senator Tillis "didn't like me at first" but "now he'll kiss my ass on command" (words to that effect). "Admit it! You like me now," Trump said, dangling Tillis over the flames of disapproval like a sinner in the hands of an angry god.

A source inside the room told the New York Times’ Maggie Haberman that Tillis looked “super uncomfortable” during the exchange.

Ritual humiliation for a senator who once thought he could have an independent thought about matters of government. Poor fool!

Ignorance Is Bliss (And Virginia Foxx Lies By Omission)

Congresswoman Virginia Foxx recently complained, “We’re not a banana republic and things should not be done in secret. They should all be out in the open.”

She was moaning about the impeachment inquiry that's been taking depositions behind closed doors. Those depositions are suspicious to Foxx because she personally cannot attend to hear and see them.

Wait. What?

Congresswoman Virginia Foxx sits on the House Committee on Oversight and Reform. The House Committee on Oversight and Reform is one of the three committees holding the impeachment depositions behind closed doors. Both Democratic and Republican members of those committees are not only free to attend, but they can also ask questions. Friggin questions. Virginia Foxx also could but didn't and won't (especially, perhaps, since they're not offering a rolling breakfast buffet).

Her "things done in secret" might have more bite if she wasn't truant. And a liar to boot. She has the unmitigated gall to make a whine out of her own non-attendance. Her fellow North Carolina congressman Mark Meadows has certainly been there (because he also sits on Oversight and Reform). The transcripts show Meadows an active participant, asking questions with gusto.

But Foxx has excuses: “Several depositions have been scheduled when Congress is not in session and other events have been scheduled in North Carolina. Others have had their time changed, conflicting with other responsibilities in Washington, including my work as Republican Leader on the Education and Labor Committee,” she tweeted (since deleted).

Can we get real here, Congresswoman? You're not there in deference to the age-old superstition, "If I don't see it, it doesn't exist." You're in a graveyard at midnight and the moon is full, and what do you do? You keep your eyes on the ground immediately in front of you and look neither left nor right. And you might even whistle, to keep your concentration.

Foxx is like a lot of Trump's support. Willfully ignorant in an effort to keep her difficult balance in the high noon sun.

Another Democrat Wants Thom Tillis's Senate Seat

To date we have Cal Cunningham, Trevor Fuller, Erica Smith, and Steven Williams all of whom have declared they'll be participating in the Democratic primary on March 3rd to take on incumbent Republican Senator Thom Tillis.

Now there's a fifth, Atul Goel, a Raleigh physician who's on a quest to visit all 100 counties and talk to voters. He was born in India, came with his family to this country when he was 10, and he talks knowledgeably about issues, especially health care and how to reform the system.

“We all know we have a health care crisis that needs to be addressed,” he said. “We don’t have affordable health care access for everyone.” 

He said he feels his years of experience in health care equips him to address the issue as a policymaker. 

Involved for a number of years with Democratic party politics in Wake County (he has served, for example, as a precinct chair) Goel said he grew frustrated hearing potential policymakers discuss health care. 

“I can tell they don’t know what they’re talking about,” he said. “I’ve been involved in a wide variety of the health care aspect.” ...

“It’s a serious issue I just feel needs to be addressed,” he said. “I don’t have all the answers, but I understand the issues and want to be part of the team that does something about it.”

Jeff Sessions Will Run for His Old Alabama US Senate Seat

Jeff Sessions can take a punch
and pop back up!

Last night, under the cover of a darkness that passeth understanding, former Trump Attorney General and punching bag Jefferson Beauregard Sessions announced that he will be running again for his old US Senate seat, the one he gave up to become Attorney General and Trump's punching bag.

Thank you Jeremy W. Peters and Maggie Haberman for this tidbit:

"News of Mr. Sessions’s decision to run startled and dismayed national Republicans, who had hoped that he would step aside to avoid the possibility of being vilified by Mr. Trump — and to spare them the headache of a nationalized race in a state they hope to win back."

Alabama Republicans are naturally itching to take back that Senate seat from Doug Jones, who beat young flesh entrepreneur Roy Moore in the special election of 2017. Doug Jones is generally regarded as the most vulnerable Democrat in the Senate, because, after all, Alabama.

Those "dismayed national Republicans" have had their eyes on two normal-looking, unpunched-by-Trump Republicans who had already declared their intentions to run in a primary for that Senate seat: Alabama 1st District Congressman Bradley Byrne and former Auburn University football coach Tommy Tuberville (because, after all, Alabama + football). Those two guys were maybe considered frontrunners prior to the entry of Jeff Sessions, though young flesh entrepreneur Roy Moore will also be in that March 3rd primary, and he still has a following among the apocalyptic-minded. (There are even a couple more guys who've announced an intention to run, so that Republican senatorial primary in Alabama will be crowded.)

The big question: Will Twitterman, the one with low impulse control, stay out of that primary? Or will he let his cankers bloom and bash Sessions? Maggie Haberman reports this:

"Mr. Trump ... continues to blame Mr. Sessions for the two-year Russia probe, and last weekend he repeatedly denounced Mr. Sessions, saying he was a “jerk” and making it clear Mr. Sessions would not have his support, according to a person briefed on the discussions.

Alabama, winter is coming!

More Evidence of Antipathy for Trump in the Suburbs

Yes, the Virginia suburbs around Washington DeeCee, Richmond, and Norfolk swept Democrats into the state legislature last Tuesday. And the suburbs around Louisville, Lexington, and south of Cincinnati helped elect a Democratic governor of Kentucky. "In part because of antipathy toward President Trump."

But there were other clear signals from suburbia in another state where only local candidates were on the ballot -- Pennsylvania. In the suburban counties around Philadelphia, Democratic candidates defeated the last Republicans on the five-seat Delaware County Council. Democrats took control of the board of commissioners in Bucks County for the first time since the 1980s, and they took the majority in Chester County.

Election analyst and pollster Rachel Bitecofer is preaching that the turn in suburban America against the party of Trump is not Republicans changing their votes to Democrats. No, it's independent voters and -- more significantly -- new voters coming out against Trumpism at all levels of elective office -- voters who've been disengaged, sporadic in their turn-out, or simply unregistered to vote. The election of Donald Trump has awakened them. They're there for the winning over if Democratic candidates can give them the living contrast to the Party of Trump.

I highlight this paragraph by Trip Gabriel, Jonathan Martin, and Alexander Burns in an article this morning focusing on the very noticeable swing among suburban voters:

"For Mr. Trump and other Republican leaders, the ongoing political realignment of the suburbs — which was essential to Democrats flipping Republican-held congressional seats in 2018 and retaking the House — is a disconcerting disadvantage that they have shown little ability to reverse. Democratic officials, in turn, increasingly believe they can press a center-left agenda with little risk of backlash because moderate voters will remain in their grip as long as Mr. Trump is in office and effectively make the G.O.P. a no-go zone for this demographic." [italics added]