The 2024 Blue Wave Could Make House 25 a Democratic Flip

 

House District 25 (Nash County) northeast of Wake, is about as rural as you get. The biggest towns --Rocky Mount, Whitakers, and Sharpsburg -- are on or near county lines, so much of their population don't vote in the district. When I hear the county seat is Nashville, I always do a doubletake. "There's a Nashville, North Carolina?" It's pretty small. The district, which is entirely in Nash County, is 40% Black. Civitas calls it D+2. Dave's says 51% D.

In District 25, the Republican incumbent is going to be hard to beat, but a new Blue Wave brought on by the change at the top of the ticket could make the difference.

Allen Chesser, Republican Incumbent

Mr. and Mrs. Chesser with their five kids

Chesser is the Republican who beat Black Rep. James Gailliard in 2022. Gailliard had been part of the Class of '18 blue wave. He kept his seat through one reelection in 2022 and then lost it to Chesser in '24.

Chesser's campaign video -- currently pinned at the top of his FB feed -- is a professional production featuring glowing testimonials from some of the establishment in Nash County. Chesser also promoted Opportunity Scholarships (which benefit the most well-to-do people). 

Chesser is ex-military. He served in combat in Iraq as a turret gunner. After Iraq he transitioned to police officer, first in Nags Head and then in Raleigh. Then he went into business for five years as a bail bondsman. Then he became a computer technician and then -- now -- he's VP of Technology and Security for Carrolton Facility Maintenance in Rocky Mount. Emphasis on "security."

Allen credits his time as a police officer in South-East Raleigh for "opening his eyes to the struggles found within the intercity and igniting his passion to help; a passion that still drives him today" (website). That's not MAGA talk. Rather than culture warrior, he's all business and brags that he brought $55 million in pork to Nash. He's apparently a darling of the business community.

He's another youngish Republican candidate -- a second is Melinda Bales -- who keeps their distance from Trump and trumpism while adhering to an ethos of economic conservatism. Sure, Chesser and any Republican candidate down-ballot from Trump, is gonna salute the leader and show some visible enthusiasm for another Trump presidency, but they're not carrying any flaming torches and might actually hold back their allegiance in the coming Second Civil War. Chesser did post on Twitter that we ought to pray for Donald Trump/pray for America (e pluribus, mates!), but otherwise he doesn't indulge in any hot-button-pushing conservative memes. He's cagey about looking extreme, though he has been a big wig in the North Carolina Republican Liberty Caucus, a Libertarian-leaning PAC that endorses candidates whilst promoting "the ideals of individual liberty, limited government, and free market economics" (the chalice from the palace with the brew that is true).

Last March, Chesser faced a Republican primary with a Black woman, Yvonne McLeod, who had come close to beating him two years earlier in the Republican primary of 2022. Two years later, Chesser easily beats McLeod with 66% of the vote. McLeod had been led to challenge Chesser over the gambling casino fiasco. Nash was a target county for one of the four new proposed casinos pushed by Phil Berger. It would have been near Rocky Mount. Chesser was all in for that development, but that drew backlash from all sorts of conservative Republicans, who ran Yvonne McLeod against him.

Lorenza Wilkins, Democrat

His bio on his website contains a puzzling description of his current activities: he's "an equity-driven servant leader and inductee into the National Society of Leadership and Success," an honor society that gives scholarships to ambitious young people of limited means but doesn't appear to hire. Almost in the same sentence, he vaguely mentions "a career of advocating for education, small businesses, and our children," which I take means Wilkins lives on the slim operations budget of more than one non-profit. He eventually nails it down to "currently serving as Chief Officer of People and Culture at the Inter-Faith Food Shuttle." The Inter-Faith Food Shuttle is a charitable non-profit affiliated with the Feeding America National Network of Food Banks. "We recover and distribute food to our low-income neighbors, but we know putting food on a plate is not enough. We also provide programs designed to empower people with skills to meet their own food needs through culinary job training, beginner gardening, and cooking healthy on a budget."

Wilkins is a former student-athlete at North Carolina Central University and holds a Bachelor of Science in Business Administration, a Master of Business Administration, and a Doctor of Business Administration from Columbia Southern University. He does go by "Doctor" on his website. He will compete with Republican Chesser for the mantel of business-friendly:

Dr. Wilkins is working to foster an environment where businesses continue coming to North Carolina, creating jobs, and increasing the quality of life for communities across our state.

The Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee recently awarded Wilkins its "Spotlight" designation, which should provide a fundraising and advertising boost. But NC House Republicans are salting Chesser's coffers even more, setting aside over $500,000 to help keep Chesser in office. Wilkins' fundraising has been anemic. According to The Enterprize, "Wilkins trails Chesser by more than six figures in the money race," which can be a worrying signal of low enthusiasm.

There's social media evidence that Wilkins has some ground game going. If he can rally the Democrats and the progressive Unaffiliated, he has a shot, which would actually be vastly aided by an energing 2024 Blue Wave.

This New Josh Stein Video Will Air During the Olympics

 

Featuring Debbie Dalton of Cornelius, who voted for Donald Trump in 2020.

House District 35: Lawyer Vs. Lawyer

 

The shape of House Dist. 35 is a tale of political revenge (hattip Bryan Anderson). Terence Everitt, a 2018 blue-wave Democratic star held on to this seat through two reelections, through 2022, but in the process of doing his job, he couldn't help noticing the almost theatrical corruption of Speaker Tim Moore, so he wrote the Wake D.A., suggesting that "a probe" of Speaker Moore seemed more than called for. The Wake D.A., Lorrin Freeman, declined to take that up. So for Everett's trouble, Speaker Moore moved his office without warning to cramped space in the basement. Republicans weren't done punishing him. Destin Hall and his gnomes in the House Redistricting Committee gerrymandered Everett's district from what had been D+5 to R+5. Dave's Redistricting scores the district as 51.8% Republican. Civitas makes it R+3.) In frustration, Everett opted this year to run for an overlapping Senate seat, so Dist. 35 is an open grab for someone who brings energy and a persistent ground game. 

(With the sudden change at the top of the Democratic ticket, I predict renewed and possibly stunning energy in the grassroots for the Democrat.)

Evonne Hopkins, Democrat

"Evonne S. Hopkins is a North Carolina Board Certified Family Law Specialist and Certified Parent Coordinator licensed to practice in North Carolina, California, and the District of Columbia. Evonne earned joint JD/MBA degrees from the University of San Francisco in 2003 and a Bachelor of Arts (Honors) in Philosophy from Rollins College in 1998. She's got two decades of legal experience behind her, and is chief in her own legal business, the Raleigh Law Center, "a boutique firm that can help you and your family resolve complex family law issues. We have proven success record in all aspects of family law including child custody & support, alimony, division of marital assets and debts, domestic violence restraining orders, separation & prenuptial agreements. We also offer wills, trusts and estate planning" (Raleigh Law Center website). 

I particularly grooved on this assessment of Hopkins from that same website:

Never one to shy away from conflict, Evonne is known for her straightforward honest style, powerful advocacy and is considered a formidable opponent.

Gov. Cooper came to her kickoff event. She's been pretty good at fundraising, quickly lapping her Republican opponent, though he's been bestowed some $453,000 for TV by the Republican House caucus. Hopkins has done some convassing, and if she's not shy, there needs to be more video of her.

Mike Schietzelt, Republican

Schietzelt and some of his boys

Schietzelt is also an attorney (Duke Law) and an ex-Marine. The Marine part opens up a very interesting life story I quote at length:

As a young adult, Mike toured the world as a professional musician, performing in amusement parks and on cruise ships. In 2011, he enlisted in the U.S. Marine Corps as a member of “The Commandant’s Own” United States Marine Drum and Bugle Corps. While stationed in Washington, D.C, Mike represented the Marine Corps before many of the highest ranking civilian and military officials in America, and he sounded Taps for military funerals at Arlington National Cemetery.

Random facts: He clerked for then-N.C. Supreme Court Chief Justice Mark Martin during the 2018-19 term. He's lobbied at the General Assembly for changes to criminal law (what changes, not explained), and is currently a civil litigation attorney with Michael Best & Friedrich LLP, a quite large firm with multiple offices.

I don't find a whiff of MAGA or trumpism in his social media. He seems attractively moderate, good for this north Wake district. He has four sons and looks to be a swell dad and family man, which also cannot hurt since his opponent might be a single woman.

Schietzelt's greatest liability may be his name, which has to go on a yardsign. He's lagged behind Hopkins in fundraising, but to the rescue comes the NC House Republican caucus, who announced they were funneling $453,000 into Schietzelt's TV budget.

Shelane Etchison Revs It Up

 

Shelane Etchison, the ground-breaking first independent candidate for Congress from a North Carolina district (CD8), released her first TV ad on the night of that disastrous debate performance by Joe Biden.

We had previously written about Etchison's campaign back in April.

Etchison is up against the veteran Republican Richard Hudson in the 8th CD. There's also a Democrat on the ballot who doesn't even live in the district. Most knowledgeable commentators say Etchison hasn't got a ghost's chance of winning, but in this year of surprises, I'm not about to count her out.

The Party Unifies

By Jack Yordy, guest-posting:

This past Saturday, July 20th, I went to the North Carolina Democratic Party Unity Dinner, along with 900 delegates, elected officials, staffers, volunteers, donors, and Democrats. The energy at the event was very positive, even before the news of Joe Biden’s exit from the presidential race. Democrats at the Unity Dinner were excited. The speakers, including our electric party chair Anderson Clayton, and the formidable former Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi, energized the crowd and reinforced our commitment to working hard and winning elections in 2024. Unity was the right word to describe the atmosphere. We knew the odds were tough and the road to winning would be hard, but together, we were ready for it.

The very next day, President Joe Biden announced his decision to drop out of the presidential election and the meaning of the word unity changed. Before, we were unified in our determination to beat the odds and fight what many were starting to believe was a losing battle. It was a convicted, resolute, stubborn unity, but not a very hopeful one. Today, we are unified not only in our convictions and fortitude. We are unified in hope. Democrats are feeling reinvigorated. We young Democrats in particular finally have a vision for the future, something to fight toward rather than against. 

The highlighted message of the Republican National Convention last week was that Donald Trump would be a new man, ready to unify the country. Of course, nothing new came from him at the RNC. He is the same man spouting the same hateful rhetoric. Before Biden dropped out of the race, Democrats couldn’t substantively dispute those claims despite Trump’s continued divisiveness. We were airing out all our dirty laundry for the world to see, riddled with panic and division over questions about Joe Biden’s capabilities. Now the Democrats are showing the world how unity is done. 

State delegations, elected officials, power brokers, and grassroots organizers have unified around Vice President Harris. The party is ready to make her the next president of the United States. Not just because we must beat Donald Trump, not just because we must beat Project 2025, but because she is capable of bringing our country into a new era of prosperity, progress, and, yes, unity. 

 

 

NC House 24: Democratic Star Takes On Republican Fanatic

 

NC House District 24 is another of those Democratic targets for a flip in 2024. It's the County of Wilson, including the county seat of the same name, and a little bit of Nash County. Civitas rates the partisan lean D+2. The incumbent Republican is serving his first term and may be the only Black Republican in the House. Dave's Redistricting measures Dist. 24 at 50.7% Democratic and 38.5% Black. The Democrat appears to be running a very strong campaign. Of the House races I've so far examined, this one looks the most promising for a flip.

[NOTE: But with the change at the top of the Democratic ticket, many tight districts have every chance of flipping in a new Blue Wave of 2024. That's what I'm predicting.]

Dante Pittman, Democrat

Pittman

Dante Pittman was chosen in its first fellowship cohort by Lead North Carolina, which raises money to put "promising recent graduates" into local government jobs. Here is Pittman's writeup:

Pittman served his fellowship in the City of Wilson while serving as a platoon leader in the North Carolina Army National Guard. He collaborated with the Visual Arts Committee at the Wilson Arts Council to promote arts in the community and designed a survey for a micro-transit program. Pittman played a pivotal role with the Gig360 young professionals network, a social organization for individuals dedicated to sustaining the Whirligig Park, networking, and growing a culture of young living in the community.

"Culture of young." The guy's well networked.

Before Leader North Carolina found him, Pittman was special assistant to the attorney general in the North Carolina Department of Justice. He earned a bachelor’s degree in political science from UNC-Chapel Hill with minors in history and military science. He was an inaugural member of the UNC Institute of Politics and served as state and local editor for the Carolina Political Review. He was also a cadet in the UNC Army ROTC program.

He's deeply embedded in Wilson community life, evidenced by his phenomenal success as a fundraiser for his campaign. Pittman outraised his Republican opponent Fontenot by more than 6-to-1, and entering July Pittman had $161,000 in the bank, roughly eight times what Fontenot had. (But never fear. The Republican House caucus has pumped over a half-mil into Fontenot's campaign to make up the difference. They do not intend to lose this seat.)

Pittman is an attractive candidate with an intelligent affect, nicely captured in this 6-minute narrative that he tells of his life story (video done for the Wilson Education Foundation):

Ken Fontenot, Republican incumbent

He ran as an unaffiliated candidate in 2018 (reportedly with the support of the state Republican Party), got over 49% of the vote, proving he could profitably run as a Black Republican after all, which is what he did in 2022 and won by fewer than 3,000 votes over Linda Cooper-Suggs.

Fontenot

Fontenot is a Chicago native and an ex-Marine. He left the Corps in 2014 to move to Wilson where he became a pastoral candidate at a church there, taught middle school for four years, and currently works as an insurance sales agent in the area. What makes him stand out -- and obviously won him the seat, but that was then -- is his chosen role as Mark Robinson Extremist 2.0.

During his 2018 campaign, he made a video on the “genocide of Black babies,” calling himself “a zealous defender of the family” and asked voters to “Help him stand against abortion” by “supporting and promoting family values.” He also responded to an NC Family Voter questionnaire saying that he supports banning abortion “once a fetal heartbeat is detected.” (NCVoices.com)

He voted for Senate Bill 20, which banned abortion in North Carolina at 12 weeks, and then voted to override Gov. Roy Cooper’s veto of the bill.

Extreme views on abortion played better before Dobbs. Now, maybe not so much. But is Dante Pittman mean enough to use the cultural lever against Fontenot?

Fontenot has not been shy about his extreme beliefs. Recently, he has started posting videos on TikTok where he provides hot takes on culture war issues, such as one video where he (without providing any evidence) claims that President Joe Biden and his administration are responsible for a nationwide crime wave – despite FBI data showing violent crime dropped by 49% from 1993 to 2022 and property crime plummeted 59% in that same period. Bureau of Justice Statistics shows a 71% drop in both types of crime from 1993 to 2022.

You can witness Fontenot's conspiratorial demeanor in a Facebook video. 

It's a New Day

 

I trust that Democrats will give Joe Biden a hero's send-off at the National Convention on August 19. He saved us from a horrible future in 2020, and he may have just saved us again from the same fate. Self-sacrifice is all too rare in the Age of Trump, and Joe Biden has shown that he's a man of courage and faith in the future. I admire him for the decision, which could not have been easy.

The path forward may prove complicated. I don't know, but our progressive outlook in North Carolina just shot up several points.