Blue Wave or Roy Cooper's Coattails -- Either Will Do Just Fine

 

Mike Schietzelt

 

Democrats are counting on a big Blue Wave, especially in Wake County, to truly put a permanent crimp in the GOP's veto-proof House majority. One of the only remaining Republicans representing any part of Wake, Mike Schietzelt in HD 35, has been targeted for defeat by Democrat Evonne Hopkins, a family law specialist who ran against Schietzelt in 2024 before he was the incumbent and lost to him by only 200 or so votes. Carolina Forward has endorsed Hopkins. I'm very curious how fundraising is going for her, and was frustrated to find that the 2nd Quarter report which was due at the State Board of Elections on July 10th hasn't been posted. Schietzelt also hasn't reported for the 2nd Quarter. Cash-on-hand for the two campaigns, and where the cash is coming from, will tell us a good deal about whether there's grassroots juice rising for either candidate.

Schietzelt is getting big money from the House Republican caucus and plenty of support from Speaker Destin Hall and the whole networked donor base that concentrates on keeping the General Assembly imperious to any Democratic governor. 

Schietzelt is fascinating as a new character in the NC GOP because he eschews culture war and MAGA shit in favor of practical matters that suburbanites actually care about a lot more, like his strong opposition to changing the Capitol Blvd. corridor from downtown Raleigh to Wake Forest into a toll road. Schietzelt appears to be a young and affable but also conservative policy lawyer with a suburban governing style. He's not trying to become a firebrand. He's trying to become known as someone who solves practical district problems.

Evonne Hopkins

 

His first-term incumbency gives him an advantage over Evonne Hopkins. This is her second contest with Schietzelt. She did very well against him in 2024, and some think that loss established for her enough name recognition to overcome Schietzelt's incumbency advantage. I don't know about that. Familiarity can also breed contempt. I hate to suggest it, but I think it's true.

The Civitas Partisan Index puts HD 35 at R + 0, pure tossup, but I actually think Schietzelt has the advantage. It may well come down to how overwhelmingly Roy Cooper beats Michael Whatley in Wake. His coattails may be as potent as any hoped-for Blue Wave.

 

House District 63 Could Be a Red-to-Blue Flip

 

Ian Batutis

 

I've been absorbed all morning in the race for House District 63 down in Alamance County. The seat has been held since the elections of 2022 by Republican Steve Ross, but he decided to retire. The open seat is now rated R+2 by JohnLocke.org. Dave's Redistricting gives it a 52% Republican lean. But the Democrats ended up with a candidate who -- on paper, at least -- is one of the strongest I've seen.

"Ended up with." Ian Baltutis, who is now the Democratic candidate, didn't start out as the candidate. He was appointed by Democratic Party leaders in mid-May to take the place of Whitney Olive, who dropped out. Olive had filed in December and had no primary opposition. She had 15 years experience as a public school teacher, was an activist for LGBTQ, but had never run for office before.

Ian Baltutis had run for office before -- and quite successfully in Burlington, serving from 2015 to 2021 as the youngest-ever mayor.  He was heavily recruited to take Olive's place on the ballot, having just returned to the limelight by winning anew a seat on the Burlington City Council last fall. In 2021, he went back to school and earned his master’s degree in City & Regional Planning and Public Administration. His LinkedIn profile: "Ian Baltutis -- Inventor Innovator Entrepreneur." He helped establish the Burlington Beer Works, and he owns Persnickety Books, a local independent bookstore. Last fall Baltutis said of his purpose in life, “I’ve had my hands in a lot of development that’s going on, really from the standpoint of, ‘what does the community need? What kind of activities, business operations would really bring the community together and help create good, positive engagement and development.' ”

He had me at "independent bookstore owner."

He ran the first time for Burlington City Council in 2013, fresh out of Elon with a degree in business entrepreneurship, with no formal platform, but luckily he was guided by the advice to “go knock on doors.” "This grassroots approach allowed him to learn Burlington block by block, gathering residents’ stories and turning them into the foundation of his campaign." Currently, he owns and manages Vibration Solution LLC, an American product design and manufacturing company that he founded during his studies at Elon. "Baltutis is a strong supporter of American manufacturing. He founded his company around the idea of turning the standard business model upside down and creating a company that is lean, efficient and nimble." (NationalDMO).

From his social media, I get the impression he's a human dynamo of ideas and action. His website and he's all over Facebook.

 

Ryan Moffitt, the Republican Candidate

Moffitt was heir apparent, the pick of Republican Party leaders to succeed Steve Ross in an orderly continuity of Republican control. Moffitt announced his candidacy on the same day Ross announced his retirement. He's a young lawyer on the rise, a first-time candidate, and as whitebread as you could ask.

Also clearly energetic, and I see his doing some walking and talking on his Facebook feed -- always a good sign in a campaign. In Moffitt's favor are several factors: Fresh face with no legislative voting record to defend; well-positioned within the local Republican establishment; attorney with a polished professional profile; benefits from the district's Republican lean.

But Baltutis looks to have the edge: Greater political experience; better-known public record; strong résumé on local government, planning, and economic development; likely to appeal to independents and ticket splitters.

Moffitt has an impressive pile of cash-on-hand as of his Second Quarter filing with the Board of Elections, some $114,000, compared to Baltutis's cash-on-hand of $45,000. That lopsided money advantage for Moffitt is at least partially off-set by the former mayor's much greater name recognition. They both look like go-getters, but I give Baltutis a very slight edge.

Tricia Cotham, "As Vulnerable As She's Ever Been"

 

Ken McCool

 

So said Chris Cooper about the NC House member who used to be a prominent Democrat and who deserted to the GOP to give them their veto-proof majority. I watched Tricia Cotham easily fight off Democratic challenger Nicole Sidman in 2024. Sidman was a novice at politics, had never been a candidate before. Cotham's Democratic opponent this year, Ken McCool, might be a different story. JohnLocke.org rates the district R+0 "Toss Up."

I dug into Ken McCool way back in January:  

McCool ran for Matthews Town Commission in 2019 at the age of 20, came in 7th in a very crowded scrum, but only missed snagging one of six at-large seats by some 14 votes. When a vacancy opened up in February of 2020, the Commission recognized his showing in 2019 and appointed him to fill out the term. He was reelected a couple more times, including earning himself mayor pro tem as the top vote-getter. He and his father own Ken's Sports Cards and Collectibles in Indian Trail, which is a suburb of Matthews. According to LinkedIn, he also does subcontractor painting.

He appears to have been both very active and effective as a pro-development member of the town board. He brags about bringing Acceleration Advanced Manufacturing Campus to Matthews, which plans to occupy a large site on the I-485 loop south of Charlotte. Acceleration looks to be a subdivision of Hendrick Motor Sports, which builds high-performance vehicles among other things. McCool also claims ownership for expanding affordable housing in Matthews, delivering tangibles like a new fire station, and making "the largest investment in parks in a generation."

McCool's message: lifelong Matthews resident, municipal problem-solver, supporter of parks, improver of transportation and housing, armed with small-business knowledge, and a family man (wife, two young kids). In contrast, Cotham is running on a message that she knows powerful people. She touts her insider knowledge of Raleigh and her ability to get favors from Republican leadership.

McCool's been endorsed by Carolina Forward, and Pete Buttigieg came to Matthews to campaign for him. But for a Democrat in 2026 who's in a tossup race with a highly controversial incumbent, McCool's social media presence isn't much, and his website is bare bones. I get no sense that he's got volunteers on the ground knocking doors. And he has never shown his family. I can respect his (and their) desire to stay out of the political spotlight, but the visual absence of support is noticeable. 

I hope someone will message me that the McCool campaign is a raging brushfire not at all visible to us folks up in the mountains. In his July 10th report to the State Board of Elections, his campaign had raised over $130,000 and had some $76,000 cash-on-hand. But Cotham's 2nd Quarter filing lists $153,000.00 cash-on-hand.

 

Because Dallas Woodhouse Wasn't Enough

 

State Auditor and Elections Czar Dave Boliek found and then lost a good hatchet-wielder in Dallas Woodhouse, who once installed as Mr. Boliek's so-called "liaison" to county boards began to break furniture for the sake of limiting voting opportunities for at least two groups, college students and Black voters. Woodhouse recently resigned after his activities came to light, mainly when a Republican Board of Elections member from Jackson County spilled the beans.

This same Mr. Boliek has now grabbed for the new money that the Republican bosses put into the state budget for him, funds to hire 25 new staffers, which Boliek intends to make "at will political" appointees. Boliek notified Senate and House leaders (Messrs. Berger and Hall) on 7/27. That notification starts a clock ticking in the General Assembly. By statute, lawmakers have 30 days to object. If they do nothing, Mr. Boliek's project of surrounding himself with flying monkeys becomes a bigger reality. Boliek will have a total of 50 political drones in his department.

Signs of Life

 

Jamie Ager, in his element

Last Saturday, the State Board of Elections (SBOE) released new voter registration stats covering the first half of 2026:

Unaffiliated up 4,136, to total of 3,113,007

Democrats up 578, to total of 2,316,541

Republicans up 379, to total of 2,327,131

[The Center Square]

Democrats now rank third in registrations in North Carolina. By a hair, only 10,500 voters behind the Republicans. Perhaps ironically or perhaps prophetically, the only party to register fewer new voters than the Democrats so far in 2026 are the Republicans. Obviously, everyone's fate is in the hands of the numero uno Unaffiliateds. And I like them odds.

That 10k Republican advantage over Democrats becomes irrelevant if pollsters are right that an "enthusiasm gap" has yawned between the two (thank you, DJT!). The most recent right track/wrong track polling I've seen from North Carolina was conducted by High Point University in March and April, questioning 800 registered voters (703 of them considered "likely voters"). More of them thought North Carolina was on the wrong track (47%) than on the right track (31–32%), with a whopping 20% "undecided" because they haven't paid attention and don't know what's been going on.

I was just reading in the Asheville Watchdog about the enthusiasm gap that's opened in the 11th Congressional District, where Democrat Jamie Ager is outraising incumbent Republican Chuck Edwards some 9-1. In the heat of Ager's rise -- on September 11, 2025, the Cook Political Report moved the 11th from "Solid Republican" to "Likely Republican"; on June 18, 2026, Cook moved the race again, this time from "Likely Republican" to "Lean Republican" -- Congressman Edwards, lightening ship, sold all his McDonald's franchises. Ager had Pete Buttigieg at a fundraiser out on his farm. One campaign has a funerary aspect; the other pulses with life.

Total registrations by party in the 11th CD (latest numbers):

Democratic 107,989

Republican 180,267

Unaffiliated 164,871

Like I said before, I like them odds.

Guilford Co BOE Nixes Campus Early Voting at A&T and UNC-Greensboro

 

Four Eggers, Member, SBOE

 

Joining the Republican rush to discourage college-student voting in North Carolina, the Guilford County Board of Elections, with its Republican majority (plus one Democrat arrrrg!), passed its early voting plan, which took away General Election early voting sites previously available at North Carolina A&T and at UNC-Greensboro. The meeting was packed with students who remained quiet and respectful (for the most part) through a dirty deed that took less than 30 minutes. One person did yell out during the discussion about campus voting, “You don’t care about these people!” And was escorted out.

The vote of the board was 4-1, meaning one Democrat broke with her fellow party appointee and voted with the Republicans. Because the vote was not unanimous -- a tic in North Carolina election law -- it must now go for final resolution to the State Board of Elections (SBOE), where men like Four Eggers and Francis DeLuca and Bob Rucho will fer shore nix the campuses. The boss of these SBOE bosses, State Auditor Dave Boliek, is already well known as the vote suppressor supreme. It's a perfect circle of life, if life is like an anaconda. The NCGOP now owns access to the polls, an ambition they've had for decades.

The Democrat who voted yesterday with the Republicans is Felita Regina Donnell, a retired revenue agent for the IRS, a graduate of A&T, executive board member of the Greensboro NAACP, past president of the African American Caucus of the North Carolina Democratic Party, past president of Guilford County Democratic Women, and a former member of the North Carolina Democratic Party's Council of Review. I would call her a big deal in the Party. Who just left a gaping wound in the side of Democracy.

 

Questions Remain About Ray Pickett's Participation in an Expenses Paid "Bourbon Tour"

 

Rep. Ray Pickett

 

WEDNESDAY, April 22, 2026: Four Raleigh lobbyists -- 

Douglas Bowen “Bo” Heath, a lobbyist for McGuireWoods,

Douglas P. Miskew, a lobbyist for Public Sector Group,

David Ferrell, a lobbyist for Maynard Nexsen PC,

Kevin Wilkinson, the president of The Southern Group --

were indicted in Wake County for arranging illegal gifts for Republican members of the General Assembly -- under NC law, misdemeanors. These four dudes are alleged to have invented a "dark money" PAC called Greater Carolina under whose name certain lawmakers were given treats, like all-expenses-paid and no-behavior-barred "Kentucky Bourbon trips." The whiskey tours were covers for a distillery industry's lobbying for favorable legislation. Just today, the Raleigh prosecutor issued a very detailed search warrant of Greater Carolina's finances (Will Doran). The warrant says Greater Carolina spent almost $80,000 on golf outings, a little tickle-dick at strip clubs, and expensive tickets to Carolina Panthers games, but it does not name any lawmakers nor even allege that members of the General Assembly benefitted from any of those activities.

State law bans lobbyists from providing any sort of gift to an elected official, either directly or indirectly.

No current or former members of the General Assembly have been charged with anything. The Bourbon travel generosity of Greater Carolina for members of the House became more widely public because a server at a Kentucky distillery published a "gee whiz!" comment on Reddit, alleging that the North Carolina crew were loud and obnoxious, "being extremely rude, disruptive, not tipping the bartenders and tour guides, and even VOMITING in our bathroom sinks."

Watauga County's House Representative, Ray Pickett of Blowing Rock, was on the 2022 tour, but whether he was a ralpher-in-the-sink remains unknown.

Sen. Tim Moffitt, who went on the 2022 Bourbon tour, actually reported it as a gift on his Statement of Economic Interest (SEI), a form required yearly by the state's Ethics Commission. Moffitt's disclosure led to questions about the other GA whiskey tourists, like Ray Pickett. Did he report it? Here's the relevant questions on all of Pickett's SEI filings since 2022:

14. During 2024, after you were appointed, employed, or filed or were nominated as a candidate, did you

 receive any “gift(s)” exceeding $200 per quarter from a person or group of persons acting together,
 when both you and those person(s) were outside North Carolina,
 under circumstances that would lead a reasonable person to conclude the gifts were given for lobbying?
To answer Yes, all three conditions must apply

☐ Yes ☒ No

15. During 2024, after you were appointed, employed, or filed or were nominated as a candidate, did you

 accept a “scholarship” exceeding $200 related to your public position from a person or group of persons acting
together,
 when those person(s) were outside North Carolina?
To answer Yes, both conditions must apply
A “scholarship” is a grant-in-aid, either direct or indirect, to attend a conference, meeting, or similar
event, including tuition, travel, lodging, meals, and other similar expenses.

☐ Yes ☒ No ☐ Judicial Officer - You are not required to complete this question if you are filing solely because you are a legislator or judicial officer or as a candidate or appointee to those offices

Hmmm. Are there other shoes to drop, and when might we expect that?

 

Maine Man

 

Troy Jackson -- AP

  

Lot of reading to do right now about Troy Jackson, Graham Platner's replacement as the Dems Senate candidate in Maine. (His nomination is not official yet, but every news source is saying Jackson has it sewn up. Four other would-be candidates dropped out and endorsed him. Delegates vote this coming Saturday.) 

Jackson's "Beefeater face"* shouldn't mislead you that he hasn't been both a working man and a man of action. His mother was 16 when he was born, his father a struggling logger like his own male forebears going back three generations. The Jackson men all "went to the woods." Troy made a living loading and hauling cut timber for corporate growers as an employee. The growers got together, changed the haulers from employees to contract workers (the First Shafting), and then in 1998 imported a bunch of Canadian sawyers, who were cheaper labor because of the exchange rate and because they're covered by Canadian socialized medicine. Hiring the Canadians was illegal under U.S. law. Jackson joined others to organize a week-long blockade at the border with Quebec in 1998 to thwart the corporations. Jackson and two other ringleaders got led away in handcuffs, escorted off the property, told they were banned from it for life, and then let go.

Instead of strictly going away, Jackson got catapulted into politics. He first ran unsuccessfully as a Republican, was first elected to office as an Independent, and then joined the Democratic Party in 2004. Deciding that having a hand in law-making was far more useful than protests, Jackson first ran and won a seat in the Maine House of Reps in 2000 and won, switched his focus in 2002 and ran successfully for Maine Senate, held the seat until term limits ousted him in 2008, came back immediately in 2010 to run successfully again for the Maine House, went back to the Maine Senate in 2012 and remained there through December 2024 when term limits once again caught him. The Senate clearly suited him, and he could get stuff done, important progressive stuff like passing statewide free breakfast and lunch for every public school kid in the state, like improving funding for rural hospitals, like protecting union workers, and keeping Maine a pro-choice state. When he was term-limited out in 2024, he had risen in prominence, elected by his peers as Democratic Leader and then President of the Senate. 

He's one determined Yeoman Warder. He ran in the Democratic primary for Governor this year and came in third. Throughout his political career, he has been resolutely progressive, and already the right is braying about Democratic Socialists. Good!

Jackson is described as blunt and sometimes profane (I wouldn't expect anything less from a Mainer!). He's personally well liked across party lines, seen as authentic rather than polished, regarded as unusually knowledgeable about legislative procedure, viewed as "the real deal" on labor issues, and can be criticized for lacking charisma. He can't compare to Graham Platner there.

 

Jackson has to now raise a lot of money to compete with Susan Collins. He's better known out of the gate than Platner was, who had to build a following by showing up everywhere. His combat-ready aura may be enough -- that and the insurgency that Platner ignited -- may be enough to overcome the charisma deficit.

 

*Beefeater face: the jowly, rudy, well-fed look of the Tower of London's Yeoman Warders. 

 

Watauga's Own "Four" Eggers Shuts Down Investigation into Dallas Woodhouse's Voter Suppression Activities

 

Photo Jesse Barber

 

Last Thursday, with Stacy C. Eggers IV ("Four") presiding over the State Board of Elections (SBOE), Jeff Carmon, one of two Democratic members, spoke about the allegations that preceded Dallas Woodhouse's resignation as Auditor Dave Boliek's enforcer ("liaison") to all county boards, going over and around the actual staff at the SBOE. It had become well established that Woodhouse was behind orders in some specific counties advising the closing of early voting at college campuses and an end to Sunday voting in Black communities.

“Given the seriousness of these allegations and the public attention that they have generated, I believe we have an obligation to establish a complete and factual record,” Carmon said. “At this stage, I believe the board has little choice but to subpoena Mr. Woodhouse so that he may answer questions under oath.”

Eggers was horrified and shut that shit down quickly, refused to allow a vote on a subpoena for Woodhouse, arguing hilariously that it would be inappropriate to go after Woodhouse now because he's resigned his job and is a private citizen. What? When Carmon pointed out that Woodhouse's official actions were the point, not his private behavior, Eggers retreated to a threat, warning Carmon that he'd better "drop it," before the Republican majority called for investigating people who ran the SBOE for Roy Cooper and Josh Stein. (Will Doran, WRAL)

This is the same Four Eggers who secretly directed efforts to suppress the college vote in Watauga in 2013 after his younger brother was installed as the chair of the Watauga BOE. Bertrand Gutierrez scooped that scandal for the Winston-Salem Journal, and I used up a lot of bandwidth writing about Mr. Eggers and his attempt to change the entire landscape of voting in Watauga County. The first meeting of the Watauga BOE after the Republicans took over, August 12, 2013, a huge crowd had been alerted that something bad was about to go down. The meeting room was standing room only, so they moved to the main courtroom. The Republican majority proceeded to pass a dozen or more "resolutions" (changes in policy) that were proven later by digital thumbprint to have been ghost-written by the chair's big brother Four. One of those resolutions closed early voting at AppState. That meeting, with that crowd, became a raucous circus of protest, with cat-calling and boos. The lone Democratic member of the Watauga BOE said damn twice, and it was captured on video. The Civitas people alleged that the Democratic member "cursed through the whole meeting." An exaggeration that nevertheless summarizes adequately the vibe of that day.

That decision to close AppState early voting, on appeal, was upheld by the SBOE, also Republican majority at that time. A non-profit, the Watauga County Voting Rights Taskforce, and individual plaintiffs, sued in Wake Superior Court to restore the student union site. On October 13, 2014, literally on the eve of the start of early voting for the fall elections of 2014, the senior resident judge Donald Stephens issued a sharply worded decision declaring the Watauga BOE's shutdown at AppState "arbitrary and capricious." The next morning, and just as quickly as the judge had ruled, the staff of the Watauga BOE was set up in the student union and ready for early voting. We were first in line. And we've had early voting on the AppState campus ever since because a judge ordered it. (Q. Does a judge's order have a limited lifespan? How is that determined?)

Couldn't do it in Watauga in 2014. But willing to let Dallas Woodhouse do it in 2026. Same "Four" Eggers.