The Uphill Fight for House District 20

 

Tim Merrick

 

I'm not always convinced of the wisdom of adopting a visible trademark, especially if you're a candidate running for office. A gimmicky trademark can attract mockery, like John Fetterman's hoodie and shorts or Marco Rubio's heeled boots or Kristi Noem's cowboy get-up. Tim Merrick's hats are not a recent affectation. His attachment to pork-pie hats apparently goes back years into his long career as a chiropractor and well before he ever ran for office. The hat's a distraction to me, but maybe they work for him. They seem to fit his sometimes smart-ass personality, which can also work for a candidate. (If you want to see just how devoted he is to the style, see his reel posted on Facebook. He speaks to the camera backed by rows of pegs on which hang eight of his collection. That's kind of fetching.)

Tim Merrick was the owner of Alive & Well Chiropractic in Wilmington from 1991 to 2017 and has over 40 years of practice behind him. He retired and promptly ran two years ago for a contested seat on the New Hanover Board of Education. It was a narrow win, and now he's set his sights on the open seat for NC House District 20. Civitas rates it R+4. Merrick was endorsed by Carolina Forward in its second round, and he touts the endorsements of several other progressive orgs.

Dane Scalise, New Hanover County Commissioner and a lawyer, is Merrick's Republican opponent. Scalise is a veteran of politics -- much more so than Merrick -- having won county-wide as a commission candidate. He was first appointed to his seat in 2023, was elected to his own 4-year term in 2024 and became vice chair of the commission. He obviously has civic heft. He serves on the UNC Wilmington Board of Trustees and Cape Fear Community College Board of Trustees. As of June 30, Scalise had raised $327,233, nearly twice Merrick's $170,189. The next quarter reports should be available early in October. I suspect it's gotten more lopsided for Merrick.

If you don't have the money, you have to hustle, and Merrick says on one Facebook post back in May that "we" have knocked 3,200 doors in the last 6 months, which is an impressive start. He posted again about door-knocking in June, showed himself walking solo. What I miss seeing is evidence of a volunteer force behind him. I don't see that energy in Merrick's social media.

Dane Scalise is younger than Merrick and presents a friendly, self-deprecating image in some of his Facebook reels (especially his bloopers while trying to film a commercial). He certainly has no MAGA vibe about him, no feverish lusting after the embrace of DJT, but he did ape one feature of the Trump administration's politics: animosity toward diversity, equity, and inclusion. He pushed to dismantle the New Hanover County's Office of Diversity and Equity, calling DEI "ideology." Gosh. Has being kind and fair fallen ill in Republican hearts? 

It's gonna be epic if Merrick wins. It will take that rumored wave sweeping over the northern part of New Hanover, which stretches from the coast to the alarmingly polluted Cape Fear River.

 

Claire Kempner Could Flip HD 9

 

This campaign looks much healthier on the ground than her campaign bank account would lead you to expect. Claire Kempner is running in House District 9 (Pitt Co.), her second attempt to unseat Republican incumbent Tim Reeder, ECU emergency physician, who's frankly rolling in the dough. In her entire 2024 campaign against Reeder, Kempner raised $42,008 to his $556,287. She spent about $30,155; he spent about $426,963 and beat her with a 5,000-vote margin. This year, according to 2nd Q reports, Reeder has roughly eighty times Kempner's reported contributions, but sometimes piles of money don't mean much if the tectonic plates are shifting against you. Though she lost badly in 2024, has almost no money compared with Reeder, yet she is behaving like somebody who has every intention of making Reeder work for the seat.

Dist. 9 is rated by Civitas as R+3, "Lean Republican," which is well within striking distance for a flip if there is a wave.

Kempner has a real campaign underway, having learned some voter contact lessons from 2024. She says on her Facebook that she's been canvassing neighborhoods all summer. She has established an email/text volunteer recruitment operation along with an organized phone bank, with training on the campaign's script and voter-contact system. She appears to have a well-organized door-knocking operation with training and pairing inexperienced volunteers with experienced ones. 

Claire Kempner is a Pitt County mother of three, married to Greg Kempner. She was long described as a stay-at-home mom, but she now works as a Demand a Seat Recruitment Lead for Everytown for Gun Safety, which trains grassroots volunteers to run for office. She's also served in several volunteer and organizing roles with Moms Demand Action, including regional data work. She has served as secretary of the Pitt County Democratic Party and has been active with the Humane Society, United Way, and a maternity home for unhoused women and their children. She is, in other words, one of those people who apparently cannot be persuaded to sit still, especially when there is a need for action.

She's attracted the attention of the progressive community, earning endorsements from Lillian's List, 
Down Home NC (which brings more volunteers for door-knocking, phone banking, and canvassing), Equality NC, and Planned Parenthood. The Progressive Turnout Project has a paid campaign-fellow position specifically for “Claire Kempner for NC HD 9.” She made the second wave of Carolina Forward endorsements.

In other words, she's working it hard and could win.

Jen Wiles, Building Community Among Fellow Working-Mom Candidates

 

Jen Wiles

 

Two days ago I wrote about working nurse Jen Wiles running to unseat 7-term Republican House member Donny Lambeth in eastern Forsyth County (Dist. 75). I was alarmed at how little money she had reported raising back at the end of the 2nd Q. The next campaign finance report is due after September 30, and apparently Wiles has done exceedingly well in the 3rd Q. She is running a disciplined campaign with a "robust" field operation. She's been knocking a lot of doors.

I received an email from her yesterday announcing that she's raised enough money to carry out the rest of her campaign plan and has money left over to donate to other working-mom candidates like her who are struggling to get traction: "They are working parents, community advocates, and small business owners taking on immense stress with zero personal gain just to fight for their hometowns." She names several. I'll be profiling one of them later today.

Wiles is paying it forward and deserves great credit for sharing in an age that seems to always elevate selfishness.

 

Sonovabitch Really Said It, Because It's Obviously True

 

To the victor belong the spoils.

--DJT, yesterday at the UN 

 

Call me old-fashioned. I was an Eisenhower child. He was president during most of my public schooling. His portrait in Army green greeted us everywhere. He was a solid object we kids were naturally disposed to look up to as an example of manly, all-American integrity and service. Because of Ike, I grew up knowing that the presidency is a public trust, not a property right. 

That man at the U.N. was talking about Venezuelan oil, how quickly and slickly he got his hands on it. It was a brag (like everything he says is a brag of some sort). Meanwhile, the spoils are at the eternal expense of the Venezuelans, about whom DJT gives nary a flip. Of course he was going to get the oil. Possibly thought the same thing about Iran. Learned different.

Just look what busy beavers they've been, just since January 2025 (gathered by my assistant):

Crypto. Not just a risky investment but a DJT family business. Cryptocurrency has produced a gigantic personal revenue stream. His 2025 financial disclosure showed roughly $1.4 billion in income from crypto ventures, including almost $800 million from family-owned World Liberty Financial. More than $520 million came from sales of "tokens," digital assets recorded on a blockchain, and more than $250 million from selling interests in the business. 

The Meme Coin. DJT promoted his own meme coin, and purchasers of the coin were subsequently invited to a private dinner with him. The Washington Post described the arrangement as crossing what had traditionally been regarded as an ethical red line because people could effectively spend money on a DJT-associated financial product and obtain access to the president. 

Foreign Real Estate. The Trump Organization reportedly did zero new foreign deals during his first term. But in his second term, it has entered into eight in countries that depend on American goodwill, like for example Qatar, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Vietnam, and India. (He's said out loud that he's also got his eye on Gaza, as soon as that landscape can be cleared of what the Israelis did.) DJT's 2025 disclosure showed $38 million in licensing fees from Gulf real-estate projects alone, including about $21.9 million from Saudi developer Dar Al Arkan and $12.5 million from UAE developer Damac. 

Self-Dealing for Junior. Donald Trump Jr.'s venture-capital firm (1789 Capital) took a stake in Vulcan Elements, a startup manufacturer of rare earth magnets located in Durham. The Pentagon subsequently announced a $620 million loan to the company. ProPublica found that a top White House aide, Peter Navarro, had initiated the loan request and that Pentagon officials rushed the deal after being told it was a White House priority. Vulcan's estimated valuation subsequently increased roughly tenfold.

The Access Tax. Trump Media & Technology Group has been developing a service through Truth Social that provides rapid access to Trump's presidential posts—essentially selling speedier access to information emanating from the White House. Information of considerable market value to traders. AP reported that high-speed trading firms are paying $60,000–$100,000 per month for the service. 

And he's still got two years to go. What will be left to spoil?

 

Working Class vs. Aristocrat -- The Dist. 75 House Race

Jen Wiles selfie with family

 

The match between Democrat Jen Wiles and Republican Donny Lambeth in eastern Forsyth (Dist. 75 --Kernersville, etc.) pits a working-class nurse practitioner against a patrician country club Republican. Civitas rates the district R+4. Lambeth is serving his 7th term for more reasons than the partisan lean. He's a grey eminence in Winston-Salem. He was chair of the Forsyth School Board for 18 years and spent 40 years at Wake Forest Baptist Hospital, rising to CEO of the whole shebang. That's management, Baby! That's competence on the hoof.

So this seems a harder race for a newbie Democrat like Jen Wiles, a working mom of two who can do back-to-back 12-hour shifts as a surgical nurse and still get dinner. And she's mounting an active campaign, judging from her social media. With a job and a family and now a campaign that some influential people believe she'll never win (despite the weather forecast), Jen Wiles must be even more exhausted now than she was at the end of June, while it was yet a long way from the real heat of this improbable campaign: "I’m going to be really honest: I took the last three weeks mostly off from campaigning, and it reminded me just how much running for office takes from me mentally, physically, and emotionally .... Early in the summer, there was a moment where I wasn’t sure I had the fuel to keep pushing for another five months. Between long days knocking doors, creating content, designing literature, and filing finance reports as basically a team of one ... the weight felt immense." All of us who've been active in the recruiting and management of candidates know the brutal truth of what she says. Not everyone holds up through it.

Donny Lambeth

 

Yet she's doing this. Her biographical video is worth watching for a real sense of her working-class bonafides and her native grit. She says in her interviews that her reason for running was because nobody else would challenge Donny Lambeth, and he needs challenging. She's getting plenty of emotional support from a host of endorsers but little in the way of donations. At the end of the 2nd Q, she'd raised a total of $25,475 and had only $10,900 cash on hand. I haven't seen yet any "big-name" Democrats holding fundraisers for her. The Forsyth Democratic Party has featured her on the party's Substack. Yet there are no big donors from the Democratic base. She's been endorsed by NCAE, Lillian's List, Equality North Carolina, Planned Parenthood, NC Now PAC, and professional medical groups, but where's the money to go with that praise. She needs money to run something more than the kitchen-table campaign she's struggling to maintain. (And yes, I just made a small contribution.)

Bottomline: What does it mean for a candidate to mount a serious challenge when the institutional praise isn't translating into campaign money?

CORRECTION

In an August post, Wiles reported some $40,000 raised, along with 5,000 doors knocked -- both good numbers and certainly better than that 2nd Q report. All of that attention by the progressive networks may now be paying off.

Western Forsyth Has a Marquee NC House Race

 

The exciting NC House race in western Forsyth (District 74) will be evoked forever in my mind by this campaign flyer:

Amy Taylor North ran against incumbent Republican Jeff Zenger (in his 3rd term now) two years ago. She ran without state Party support but surprised people by getting close -- she took over 48% of the vote. She's back, she's got the state Party supporting her, along with Emily's List, Lillian's List, Carolina Forward, NCAE, Sierra Club, and Now Or Never NC. Gov. Josh Stein headlined a fundraiser for her. She out-raised the incumbent in the 2nd Q by $200k and has more cash on hand for the final sprint. (Both campaigns' 2nd Q reports are available at NCSBE.)

I'm a shallow person. I'm way too susceptible to first impressions. I rely on any candidate's social media, particularly Facebook, for indications that their enterprise is in fact a functioning enterprise and is in the game to win. I want to see an active Facebook feed that shows me the boots on the ground, the meet-ups and fish fries, the talking-head videos of the candidate out-and-about (when you've got a candidate who can talk to a camera like a friend, like Amy Taylor North does). I'm old. I'm not on Instagram, but North is, and I bet there's a show of energy there too.

That photo above suggests not just energy but sly collaboration -- "Let's do some stuff!" The personality is winning, but North isn't shy about going after incumbent Jeff Zenger, linking to articles that call him corrupt and allege self-dealing. Zenger owns Solomon Development, LLC. He also owns Lisha Construction LLC. He bought property on the town square in Lewisville and wanted to build a big apartment complex there. The town council said no. A year later, it said no again. Zenger's company threatened to sue the town. Lewisville ultimately paid Solomon Development $1,959,372.20 for the property as part of a mediated settlement. Very soon after, in 2025, Zenger sponsored House Bill 765 that made substantial changes to North Carolina's zoning and development law, including limiting the ability of local governments to use certain development regulations against proposed projects. (FB) HB 765 has also been linked to the current uproar over huge Data Centers. H 765 makes it easier for any developer to ignore and get around public opposition. So in a round-about way, Zenger has enabled Data Centers without actually supporting them. The charge seems to have struck a nerve. Zenger came back on his Facebook with a post highlighting The Ratepayer Protection Act (S 730), which has passed the GOP House. The bill aims to make Data Centers pay their own way and not drive up rates for everyone else. The bill is hung up in the Senate Rules Committee. Where things often go to die.

Comparing Zenger's Facebook profile to North's, you might not know the man is even engaged in a campaign. He posts no news from the campaign trail, no evidence of life at events, no displays of happy volunteers doing volunteery stuff. No smiling appearances at even safe GOP events. There's no visible life there, just perfunctory sharing of slogans and memes. 

Meanwhile, Amy Taylor North offers much more of an insight into a candidate who can win it. The relative energy signal between the two campaigns may be totally misleading and useless for predicting anything -- I'm willing to admit that -- but what else do I have to go on without being on that ground myself?

The Civitas Partisan Index rates HD 74 at R+3. R+3 doesn't provide a lot of partisan cushion to rest on. And Zenger appears to be resting.

The Notorious 105th District -- An Update

 

Ken McCool

 

Can't stay away from my favorite chew toy -- Tricia Cotham and her continuing ability to retain her House seat in District 105, a heavily gerrymandered, meandering slice of land on the far southeast corner of Mecklenburg. She's famous in a lot of partisan households, and not in a good way -- unless you're a Republican, which she became one of, abruptly and without warning, to provide Speaker Tim Moore and the Republicans the one vote they needed to overturn a veto. Democrats didn't like that.

She's been targeted for an upset before. In '24 Nicole Sidman almost beat her, coming within 213 votes -- one of the closest races in NC that year. This year Cotham's up against former Matthews Town Commissioner Ken McCool (with the cool name!). Now Or Never NC, an independent PAC, has endorsed him and helped him raise money. Indivisible Charlotte has been campaigning for him. The Charlotte-Mecklenburg Fraternal Order of Police has formally endorsed him. His Facebook page is a good window into a campaign with energy. He's been an active fundraiser, outpacing Cotham in the 2nd Q, though Cotham naturally already had a sizable war chest. Cotham gets her money disproportionately from PACs and established business/industry organizations, including Duke Energy, automobile dealers, home builders, Realtors, and restaurant/lodging interests. McCool's fundraising comes more from individual donors in small dollar amounts. Transparency USA lists Cotham with $128,596 in total contributions and McCool with $135,412.

McCool has challenged Cotham to a debate. I can't find a Cotham response anywhere. As the incumbent, and according to "incumbent boilerplate," Cotham has no incentive to debate him. Maybe she perceives herself ahead, due to the cool gerrymandering that the General Assembly delivered in 2023 to make her district a little more Republican-friendly. McCool and state Sen. Woodson Bradley, whose Senate District 42 overlaps McCool's House district, have teamed up for joint events including canvasses. They look energetic on Facebook.

Meanwhile, Cotham has been less visible during the buildup to the next two months. She did appear at a Matthews GOP chili cookoff about a week ago in a very serious bandage, a kind of sling from the top of her head down to her chin, obscuring chin, jaws, and ears. Cotham announced in August 2025 that she was scheduled for "major surgery," caused by "complications from previous medical procedures" (details are vague), but whether that dressing a week ago is connected to that surgery is unknown. 

L.M. Dudzik very recently published a piece titled "Lessons Learned From Lies: Tricia Cotham Turned Her Back on Us" and used the "turncoat" label to make an important policy point:

Cotham had identified herself as pro-choice. She later provided the decisive vote to override Gov. Roy Cooper’s veto of North Carolina’s new abortion restrictions.

She told Equality NC she supported allowing transgender students to participate in sports consistent with their gender identity. In April 2023, she voted for the so-called Fairness in Women’s Sports Act, restricting transgender girls’ participation in girls’ school sports. When Cooper vetoed it, she voted to override him.

Cotham voted for legislation restricting gender-affirming healthcare for minors. When Cooper vetoed that bill, she voted to override him too.

Can the McCool kid (he is very young) overtake her in November? He has an active campaign underway. I hope he has door-knockers in abundance. Meanwhile, Cotham's apparent absence from the campaign trail can't be helping any "enthusiasm gaps." The Civitas Partisan Index rates Dist. 105 as R+0 -- pure toss-up -- that zero providing another hilarious metaphor for maybe flabby prospects.

Scott Colom, Coming on Strong in Mississippi

 

I'm usually focused on North Carolina races. Today, I'm fairly obsessed with Mississippi District Attorney Scott Colom, who appears to be making a lot of headway against Republican incumbent Cindy Hyde-Smith, the former agriculture commissioner who got appointed to Thad Cochran's seat when he stepped down, survived a special election, and won her first full term in 2020. She's a MAGA-bot.

You get a quick -- and fairly indelible -- impression of Colom from almost any of his reels and videos, and there are a lot of reels and videos. Here's just one that hits a lot of character traits, remarkable for how he introduces his family, who are downright charming. Also funny. They're genuine. The whole family seems as solid as seasoned oak, and Colom comes across as "all-American striver" for the good and the just.

 

He says in another video that his father, who's a Republican, ran once for state treasurer and campaigned for Ronald Reagan. His mother, also accomplished, served as a sitting state judge. Colom won his district attorney race in north Mississippi in 2015, quickly established a reputation for successful prosecutions, and was himself named to a Federal district judgeship by President Joe Biden in 2022. Why didn't that judgeship happen? Because Sen. Cindy Hyde-Smith could -- and did -- block his nomination from going forward. Colom is now running to unseat her. The Great Wheel turns!

The national Democrats have certainly noticed him. Chuck Schumer and DSCC Chair Kirsten Gillibrand praised him when he announced. Schumer attended a fundraiser for Colom in DeeCee. But so far the DSCC has left Mississippi out of its $40 million "investment" fund. Colom has complained a bit about that, but he's also turned the snub into something like a rallying cry. He has raised good money, $2.8 mil by the last filing. But Hyde-Smith has a million more. The best sign is that Colom outraised Hyde-Smith in the 2nd Quarter. There may be wind at his back. Or maybe a wave.

The attack lines against Colom will emphasize the letter he signed in 2021 opposing efforts to criminalize transgender people and gender-affirming health care. "Too liberal for Mississippi!" That oldie. "Probably a Communist!" He did receive support from none other than the George Soros-funded Mississippi Safety & Justice PAC, which spent heavily in support of Colom's 2015 DA campaign. I applaud George Soros for spotting talent. Frankly, if Colom stays very much on message about the economics of life in Mississippi -- as he seems to be doing -- I doubt very much that red-baiting is going to work as well as it used to. With the outrageous prices of everything, who has time to worry about ... did you say "communists"? What is this? 1957?

Some Democratic liberals possibly harbor a grudge against Colom, because as District Attorney he recused himself from the Ricky Ball police-shooting case. It was the standard outrage -- a white police officer manages to kill a Black teenager during a routine traffic stop. Rather than charge the cop, D.A. Colom kicked the case to the state's Attorney General. (I sympathize with that decision.) The officer was subsequently indicted for manslaughter by a grand jury, but the Republican Attorney General of Mississippi dismissed the charge in 2020. You can see why people get upset. Colom later told Mississippi Today that he regretted transferring the case to the Attorney General's Office, with its sad and maddening outcome. The blasted fruit of his own recusal.

One poll puts Hyde-Smith ahead by 6 points. But the Colom campaign's internal polling puts them dead-even. So Colom is getting a fair share of coverage on the Left side of the media right now. I finally decided to pay attention today. 'Bout time.

Testing the Flippability of a Very Red Mountain County

 

“We have to get righteous people in in order to get righteous decisions.” 

--Dylan Castle, Republican candidate for the Macon Co. Commission 

 

Janet Jacobs Greene

 

If what that candidate said doesn't shiver your spine a little, what in the world is the matter with you? If there's one thing none of us need -- except nuns, possibly -- is a man with a direct pipeline to God who also wants to be in charge. Are you kidding me? 

Alex Perri's profile of all six county commission candidates down in Macon County (no, five candidates, because the sole Republican incumbent running for reelection this year refused to sit for an interview with the Smoky Mountain News) is fascinating, not because I have any property or other interests in Macon County but because the Republican CoCommish candidates are an interesting study in weather-vaning. You can tell which way the wind's blowing. It's entertaining to watch them tack.

All three Republican candidates -- two are first-time candidates running for open seats -- are strongly opposed to data centers. All three want to put the cap on Flock cameras too. Except for the youngest Republican (quoted above), they take pains to seem moderate. Not a MAGA opinion in sight (except for a smidgen from pastor Dylan Castle, who's also the youngest candidate and the most "led by God."

Macon currently has a 1-3-1 arrangement: one commissioner from District 1, three from District 2, and one from District 3, although all five commissioners are elected countywide. It's a Republican scheme to change this arrangement to five single-member districts. Democrat Terry Bell is running explicitly in opposition to the single-member plan, "arguing at-large voting keeps commissioners accountable countywide." Fair point. (As it was in the county of Watauga when state Sen. Ralph Hise decided to give the county commission to Republicans via restructuring and gerrymandering.)

The three Democrats on the Macon ballot look like a strong group, especially Janet Jacobs Greene, the 70-something former school board member and former county commissioner who went into the ministry in the United Methodist Church and has retired from that. She's totally credible as a bridge-builder and a long-range planner. Her Democratic running mates are also mainly impressive, like Terry Bell, who retired from a long teaching career in 2009, "then went to work the next day for Macon County government, where he spent five years shepherding more than $50 million in school construction projects for the county manager. He retired for good in 2020."

Russ Lunn, the Democrat running against Republican John Shearl -- the only incumbent, the one who refused to be interviewed -- is more inscrutable. Lunn calls attention to the stewpot that Macon has been recently over hot-button issues like bailing out of the Fontana Regional Library system and proposed data centers and Flock cameras. According to Lunn the five ruling Republicans have been opaque in their decision-making, unaccountable, always voting a lockstep 5-0 on every issue, a unanimity that they've apparently worked out in advance, always in closed session -- they have a lot of closed sessions. Russ Lunn is a master of understatement. He says he's running because the "tone" on the current commission is "disagreeable." When ordinary citizens make complaints, they get angry arguments instead of action.

Macon County has been DJT country. He won the county in 2024 with 68% of the vote. So while a complete or even a partial red-to-blue flip seems an awfully tall order, I'm going to be watching Macon as one of my bellwethers for a building blue wave. There's also Democrat Caleb Brown, running for the House seat (Dist. 120) that the popular Republican Mike Clampitt left vacant by his untimely death. Brown is running against Republican Carl Gillespie, who was appointed just months ago to the seat. 

Richard Ojeda Delivers What Democrats Want -- A Fighter

Richard Ojeda

 

The DCCC added the 9th Congressional District to its "Districts to Watch" list all the way back in August, but I didn't wake up to the flip possibility until Thomas Mills highlighted Democrat Richard Ojeda as a comer a couple of weeks ago. I've actually been following Ojeda for years on social media but hadn't paid attention to his candidacy for Congress. Ojeda's a very verbal critic of hypocrisy and malfeasance. He projects an intensity of integrity. That, combined with a born-to-the-plow appreciation for the working class and for rural people, helped him get a West Virginia Senate seat in 2016. He's what my father would have called feisty. And by all (social media) appearances, he's giving this campaign all he's got. Against incumbent Richard Hudson.

Hudson rose in Republican ranks as a party operative. He worked for GOP Chair Robin Hayes for some four years (before the arrest and sentencing) and then became Virginia Foxx's first chief of staff. He went on to work for a couple of Texas Republican congressmen before coming back to NC with a wealth of political know-how, to run for Congress successfully against Democratic incumbent Larry Kissell in 2012. Hudson has been easily reelected six more times (in fluctuating districts, because gerrymandering) and rose this year to head the NRCC -- making him the chief congressional candidate recruiter. In any other year Hudson would seem invulnerable.

This is not any other year.

Richard N. Ojeda II is a retired U.S. Army major, educator, and longtime social-media political commentator. He served 24 years in the Army, including deployments to Korea, Honduras, Jordan, Iraq, Haiti, and Afghanistan, and served as a paratrooper before retiring as a major. He won his WVa Senate seat with almost 60% of the vote, in the heart of the southern coalfields. He's firmly of a place and one of the folks. As a state senator, he became nationally known for his outspoken support of West Virginia teachers during the 2018 teachers' strike, advocating higher teacher pay and improved public-school funding.

In 2018, Ojeda ran for Congress in West Virginia's heavily Republican 3rd District. Although he lost to Republican Carol Miller, the campaign made him a nationally recognized Democratic figure, particularly because of his working-class, pro-labor message and unconventional personal style. He subsequently made a brief run for the 2020 Democratic presidential nomination, thought better of it, and stopped.

Since then, Ojeda has maintained a substantial social-media presence, regularly releasing direct-to-camera videos on politics, government, veterans' issues, working-class concerns, and current events. The message in every one: "I'm your fighter. Send me."

This is the video message Ojeda made for DJT after the president threatened to mobilize troops against Minnesota many months ago: 

https://www.facebook.com/RichardOjeda2020

https://ojedafornc.com/

https://www.instagram.com/ojedafornc/

https://x.com/ojedafornc

https://www.youtube.com/@OjedaforNC

 

3rd District Campaign

 

Smarter people than me keep mentioning a possible earthquake of a red-to-blue flip in NC Congressional District 3, where conservative urologist Greg Murphy is in his 4th term in Congress. (The DCCC has had its eye on the 3rd Dist. all year.) Murphy's a hardliner against abortion rights and once tweeted, “No one forces anyone to have sex,” in an online argument he was having with a liberal over the Dobbs decision, which threw abortion rights under the bus. Murphy later deleted the tweet.

The 3rd District encompasses much of eastern North Carolina, including Greenville, New Bern, Jacksonville, and the Outer Banks.

Raymond E. Smith Jr.

 

Murphy's opponent in November is Raymond E. Smith Jr. He's an impressive candidate on paper, a former member for two terms of the NC House representing Wayne and Sampson counties and a member at large of the Wayne County Board of Education. He likes to go by "Dr. Raymond E. Smith," displaying a degree he earned the hard way. He has a Doctorate in Education Leadership. Leadership and civic service run in his family. His father was a Marine and served with distinction, and his mother was herself an 18-year veteran on the School Board. Raymond Jr. is a decorated Gulf War combat veteran, former military policeman, and a statewide transportation planner for the NCDOT. 

He recently got a huge boost. The Congressional Black Caucus in DeeCee endorsed him, which means more than just money -- and the money ain't nothing to sneeze at -- for there's tactical support as well. “It means access to resources. It means that our base can be energized by the thought that they have a legitimate candidate in this race,” Smith said.

But fundraising for Smith has lagged. "GOP incumbent Greg Murphy is trouncing Democratic challenger Raymond Smith Jr. in #NC03 in money battle. Murphy raised $390K to Smith's $107K, and in terms of available cash Murphy entered July with $2.7 million to Smith's less than $74K" (Bryan Anderson tweet). 

Congressman Greg Murphy

 

The elections Smith has been in, starting at his homebase in Goldsboro:

2018 -- 1st election to NCH-21, took 52.65% of the vote.

2020 -- reelection, took 53%.

2022 -- did not run for reelection to NCH-21 but elected to run for NCS-4 in the Democratic primary against incumbent Democratic Senator Toby Fitch. Fitch got 54.5%; Smith, 45.5%.

2023 -- ran for Mayor of Goldsboro and lost by six votes. That's the kind of loss that can actually energize and count as a kind of moral win

Though he's well known in Goldsboro, he's attracted little media attention in places like Jacksonville and New Bern. Smith's Facebook presence is as stiff as his portrait on his website, so I can't tell how much energy his campaign has. Comes down to enthusiasm leading to volunteer boots on the ground to help with registration and voter contact. I don't see evidence, but I hope it's there.

 

We Got the Message, Senator

 

Based on Fetterman's appearance for DJT last night at the "DJTpaloosa" in Dallas, I'd hazard that Dems now need five new seats in the Senate instead of just four, because Fetterman was really sending an unmistakable message to his fellow Dems : "Don't count on me."

We've been there, done that, with Joe Manchin of West Virginia. Many of us still drinking milk of magnesia over him.

In addition to the new seats in North Carolina, Texas, Maine, and Ohio, we're going to need either Iowa or Alaska too. Or, hell! throw in both of them for extra measure. 

I wrote about the rise of Fetterman back in May of 2022, when he was a new curiosity on the cusp of beating Conor Lamb in the Pennsylvania Democratic primary for US Senate. He'd go on to win that Senate seat. His term will be up in '28. Back in '22: "John Fetterman looks like a lumberjack auditioning for the lead in a stage production of Shrek. Unconventional, working-class to the bone, with populist instincts, pugilistic, and rough as a cob."

Now I'd just explain him as unstable. Not safe to lean on.

The Gilded Age -- "More DJT Every Day!"

 

Sept. 2017. Photo Alex Brandon/AP

 

I'm interested right now in the theory -- we have to call it a theory -- that more DJT every day means more independents voting Democrat. DJT says he wants to make this election a referendum on himself, and so do smart Democrats. Polling and the pundits suggest that more showcasing of ego and excess will mean the actual slow death of MAGA. Which appears to be why some Republican Congressional candidates are quietly hoping DJT never comes to their districts.

The big "DJTpaloosa" down in Dallas becomes an acid bath for rational Republican candidates and operatives. They know very well that showcasing the bluster and bloviation of the cult leader at this particular time does no one any good. All the gold gilding in Michaels won't cover DJT's detachment from working people's reality, so absorbed by his own search for glory and cash, not necessarily in that order. Oh he's banked billions. And doesn't seem to have a clue what people actually worry about. It's not the same things that DJT sez we ought to be focused on, like triumphal arches and big ballrooms and gold coins and punishing Canada for some goddamn reason and getting us bogged down in the Persian Gulf with higher everything. DJT's bragging on himself in this present reality becomes real-time evidence that he doesn't give a shit about anybody but himself -- and possibly a few relatives. 

Isn't it a red flag that DJT actually said that the "only reason" that a community that opposes a data center will "end up being backwards and poor” (Monday, August 31, 2026, on Truth Social)? All indications are that large parts of MAGA are saying back a maybe quiet "fuck you." The uproar over new data centers and their proliferating burden on both the environment and taxpayer money is not the doing of intellectuals. It's an uprising among the very people who've voted for DJT, probably twice. Who would have guessed even three months ago that the public costs of Artificial Intelligence would become a big political issue before the election, with Republican leaders scrambling to react to their voters' opposition to new warehouses for large electric appliances? Data centers are being banned in many NC counties with Republican majorities, or moratoria are stopping development until rules can be written. Public hearings are crowded with working people, not intellectuals.

I looked for Virginia Foxx's name in the long speaker-list for the DJTpaloosa and couldn't find her. Congressman Richard Hudson is speaking, the only member of Congress from NC, and otherwise it's candidates like Laurie Buckout -- recently banned from a gambling site for betting on herself -- and the struggling Michael Whatley, who's got nothing else left but prostrating himself. I wondered if Foxx would even go to Dallas. I checked her Facebook page. She doesn't mention anything about DJTpaloosa or Dallas, but clearly not out of any attempt to distance herself from the man. She's always gushing about DJT's hugely successful and miraculous agenda. She recently served up this baloney: "This has been the most productive Congress since 1949!"

Said like a true accolyte who fears no failure. How out-of-touch that is will soon be tested in the 5th District of North Carolina, and everywhere else.

 

The Unpredictable Surprises of November 3rd

"If you’re a Republican in Congress, even if you’re running in a district Trump won by eighteen points, even if your polls have you ahead, brace yourself – you may find yourself staring a hard reality in the eye on election night."

--Carter Wrenn on Substack, Sept. 4, 2026 

 

I love it when a respected conservative operative, who was Jesse Helms's political guru for years, plays Cassandra for his side. You know who Cassandra was -- Priam's daughter who always knew when disaster was coming. No one ever believed her. That was her curse. Carter Wrenn's playing that part for Republicans. More than prophet, Wrenn knows politics and can see history straight. Among many other political achievements, Wrenn managed Ronald Reagan's winning campaign in the North Carolina primary of 1980, upsetting Gerald Ford. 

Wrenn predicts in a roundabout way that turnout -- lack of turnout -- will be the Achilles heel for Republicans this November. Lack of turnout can erase an 18-point paper advantage very quickly.

Which is why the surprises of November 3rd are pretty much unpredictable. Less than two months to go to find out. 

The Berger Perplex

 

Last Thursday, Phil Berger Jr. announced on X that he would not be running for reelection in 2028. What? First Phil Berger Sr. bites the dust in the March primary. Now Number One Son Phil Junior announces he's going to be off of the state Supreme Court when his current term expires in '28.

Before we can begin to clap his exit, the dern Carolina Journal, the organ of the John Locke Foundation, immediately understands that Junior has his eye on the Chief Justice seat currently occupied by Rumpelstiltskin Paul Newby, the most highly partisan chief justice in our lifetime. In other words, last Thursday what Phil Junior was trying to say on X was "I'm not going to run for this seat on the Supreme Court, but for a wholly different seat -- the most important seat."

Symmetry. Berger first ran ten years ago in 2016 for the Supreme Court seat that Paul Newby was vacating so that he could run for Chief Justice. Berger has a practice of following in his master's footsteps. (Newby is required by law to retire at age 76. He'll be 73 in 2028, which means he would have to retire in the middle of that 6-year term. So tell me they haven't worked this all out in advance.)

Berger's reputation as a Republican partisan comes from his refusing repeatedly to recuse himself from deciding cases in which his own father, Phil Berger Senior (the about-to-be-former President Pro Tem of the NC Senate), was a defendant (who stood to benefit at least politically from the decision). The crucial Harper v. Hall redistricting decision, which had thrown out the Republicans' 2021 General Assembly districts as unconstitutional gerrymandering; the Voter I.D. case; the Leandro school funding case. Occasionally, when he's been challenged for his family relation he's referred the question of recusal to the other justices, and they always vote 4-2, "Hell, no! Junior doesn't need to recuse himself, because Daddy as a defendant is only a defendant because he was acting in his official capacity as leader of the Senate." 

It was a regular Berger family duopoly of power.

A reminder of how Phil Jr. got hatched:

First, he ran in 2014 for the seat vacated by Congressman Howard Coble. He was backed by wads of money and the full-bore influence of his father, but Phil Junior lost to Mark Walker (of noted memory). Lost the Republican primary when a lot of pundits thought he'd win.

Following quickly that humiliating defeat, Phil Junior got himself appointed to an administrative law judgeship. In 2016, he took the next step and challenged Judge Linda Stephens for a seat on the Court of Appeals and won. That was the same year Trump arrived. Plus Junior benefited from a last minute legislative stunt that Phil Senior pulled off in the short session of the General Assembly the summer of 2016. He got the law changed as regards random "ballot order," insuring that candidates that belong to the same party as the sitting governor (Pat McCrory) get listed first on the ballot. Berger beat Stephens by a slim margin, 22,099 votes. He quit the seat in 2020, to run for the Newby seat on the Supreme Court. You could say the boy exhibits ambition, and he's in a hurry.