Another Possible Upset Candidate -- Marcus Singleton (SD36)

 

I've been pawing through the NC House and Senate districts that Trump won in 2016 where he took less than 60 percent of the vote. The 48th Senate District down in Transylvania, Henderson, and the southermost part of Buncombe fit that description, and I wrote about Democrat Brian Caskey running in that district and the boost he may get from a couple of other Democrats running in overlapping NC House districts.

Then I found Democrat Marcus Singleton running in SD36 (Cabarrus County and a little of Union; Concord is the principal city). Marcus is a United Methodist Church minister, a graduate of the divinity program at Howard University with a master's in counseling from Bowie State in Maryland. He pastors Aldersgate United Methodist Church in Charlotte. He posted a lengthy statement about the death of George Floyd and the importance of the Black Lives Matter movement, which said in part:

The inability of politicians and leaders to identify with the pain and suffering of everyday people is commonplace from every sphere of political leadership, nationally to locally....

We have too many elected leaders who have neither the willingness to work across the aisle nor the willingness to know and experience the pain of the people to whom they have been elected to serve. One of my hopes as we continue to grieve Mr. Floyd’s death is - we as citizens - we as an electorate recognize the importance of diversity in political leadership.

Senate District 36 was most recently rated "Likely Republican" by Michael Bitzer and associates. Trump took 59.53 percent of the vote in 2016, but Democrats (29 percent) and Unaffiliated (34 percent) together out-number Republicans (36 percent), and I'm persuaded that there's a big untapped and disengaged voter pool that could get motivated and then animated and overcome that 10-point disadvantage (especially if the Republican electorate is depressed). Blacks make up 18 percent of the voters.

There's an overlapping boosting effect that could come from two very active and promising NC House candidates whose districts include large parts of Cabarrus -- Democrat Gail Young in HD83 and Democrat Aimy Steele in HD82, both of which have been on most lists of "races to watch" all year. Singleton, Young, and Steele could support and nurture each other's campaigns, especially if they've got healthy new-voter registration drives underway.

The three of them showed up together back in January at Martin Luther King Jr. Day observations in Concord. Interestingly, so did incumbent Republican House member Larry Pittman, who is being challenged by Gail Young in HD83 this November.

Martin Luther King Jr. Day in Concord, January 2020.
Marcus Singleton, center, in purple shirt.
Larry Pittman, holding the microphone.
Aimy Steele and Gail Young, far right.
Photo by Marty Price in the Independent Tribune

Rep. Pittman's attendance is perhaps not entirely surprising. (Can you spell chutzpah?) He is after all a politician running for reelection. But he's probably not fooling anyone. He's also known for hanging with a neo-Confederacy group. Pittman introduced a bill that would have removed the ban on secession from the state constitution, and he drew widespread attention in 2017 when he stated that the Civil War was "unnecessary and unconstitutional" and compared Abraham Lincoln to Adolf Hitler. His campaign received at least $2,000 from the Sons of Confederate Veterans PAC.

Un-Trumping North Carolina: Democrat Gail Young Running in NC House District 83

Incumbent Republican House member Larry Pittman decided to emulate Trump by saying yet another outrageous thing (he has a history) -- that Black Lives Matter protestors are "vermin" and need to be shot down in the street if they don't obey -- which prompts me to highlight this a.m. his Democratic opponent on the November ballot, Gail Young. I've been following her since she ran the first time in 2018 (in both a Democratic primary and in the General), and she earned a very respectable 47.22% of the vote against Rev. Pittman (yes, he's a preacher of the Gospel, though it's a version I don't recognize).

The 83rd House District is mainly central Cabarrus County (Kannapolis and Concord) but also extends northward into southern Rowan County. The average population of NC House districts is mandated at 79,462; according to Ballotpedia, District 83 had 78,419 citizens as of the 2010 Census, yet only 28,038 of those residents opted to vote in the District 83 race in 2018 -- which suggests that Gail Young has plenty of opportunity there for expansion. Still (we try to be realistic), Dist. 83 is considered "safe Republican" in one rating, though Michael Bitzer sees it a little rosier as "lean Republican." Either forecast leaves lots of room to move new voters to the polls. 

Lillian's List of North Carolina made her a featured candidate. Now or Never NC, an independent political action committee that backs "top challengers who strongly support public education, redistricting reform, voter access, and who have an appreciation for local governance," has promoted her. The NC League of Conservation Voters, the NC Sierra Club, Equality NC, Moms Demand Action, and Planned Parenthood have all endorsed her.

 

Before the coronavirus lockdown she was organizing volunteers for "Walk Cabarrus," and nothing moves voters like a show of energy from a campaign with lots of supporters. All of us political activists are suffering from the restrictions imposed by social distancing, but I hope those platoons of walkers for Gail Young are being put on the phone -- second only to door-knocking for political persuasion.

On June 2nd, the day after Trump had Lafayette Square violently cleared for his vanity project, Gail Young tweeted "We do not consent to being governed this way," a simple declaration that goes to the very heart of our constitutional democracy. Defines the situation in House District 83 too, where the incumbent representative calls black protestors of police brutality "vermin." All of us cannot consent to being governed this way.

The Elections of March: Can Jay White Knock Out Fellow Republican Larry Pittman in NCH83?

The Republican primary in North Carolina House District 83 offers a marquee contest between a Trumpian, unreconstructed, Southern Battle War flag-waving representative first elected in the Tea Party wave of 2010 and a moderate, "united by our shared values" Republican attorney who clearly sees the incumbent as an embarrassment to the district, the state, and the party. Awaiting whomever wins this primary will be Democrat Gail Young, who also ran in 2018 and who's been building her own campaign for months. (Disclosure: I've contributed to Gail Young.)

Jay White

Insurgent Republican lawyer and former Cabarrus County Commissioner Jay White ran a primary race against Rep. Larry Pittman once before, in 2012, in Pittman's first reelection campaign, and came within 244 votes of beating him. The Reverend Pittman, a Presbyterian minister trained as a Baptist, had already made a name for himself in the General Assembly as an acid-spewing conservative and theocrat willing to call down fire and brimstone on his political enemies. Approaching that election in 2012, Pittman said of Planned Parenthood that it "deals out nothing but deception, death, personal devastation, and moral degradation. Never will I agree to give that bloody, indecent, immoral organization one penny. I will not be satisfied until it is outlawed."

That comment is wholly characteristic of a state representative who also condemns LGBTQ people to hell and considers Abraham Lincoln a mere 19th-century Hitler (presumably for freeing the slaves) and who is happy to hang out with white supremacists.

Pittman

Jay White's website is a studied contrast to Mr. Pittman. Nowhere does White mention Donald Trump as the leader of the GOP nor does he praise the Republican leadership in the General Assembly in Raleigh. He wants to be seen as a nice guy, words not generally applied to Pittman nor to the overlords in the General Assembly. White repeats the words shared values like he's rubbing salve into wounds: "The people of the 83rd District are my friends, you are my family. Together, united by our shared values, we can make Cabarrus County and North Carolina a better place for ourselves and our children. For too long, the 83rd District has lacked an effective voice in Raleigh. We need an experienced leader who will find solutions and deliver results."

The recent track record of moderate Republicans trying to take out far-right conservatives in North Carolina primaries does not suggest that Jay White can prevail on March 3rd. I'm thinking of moderate Republican Beth Monaghan's attempt to beat Dan Bishop in NCS39 in 2018 and of moderate Republican Holly Grange's attempt to overcome Dan Forest in the primary for governor this year. Like the others, Jay White is obviously hoping that Pittman has maybe embarrassed the people one time too many, but Republican primary voters are pretty un-embarrassable.

Gail Young

Frankly, it'll be better for Democrat Gail Young if Jay White doesn't prevail. The district is rated by Michael Bitzer as "Lean Republican," with Republican voter registration five percentage points higher than Democratic registration (35% to 30%). The balance of power obviously lies with the 34% of the voters registered Unaffiliated, the group that is often willing to punish extremism. Plus the district may be trending away from Pittman's brand of politics. Michael Bitzer rates it a high suburban concentration as District 83 abuts directly on urban Mecklenburg County to the north. Real Facts NC considers the district one of the most competitive in the state, but I think that depends on whether Pittman survives his primary.

Larry Pittman Draws a Credible Primary Opponent in 2020

Pittman

Larry Pittman, the Republican incumbent in House District 83, is one of the most extreme Republican members of the NC General Assembly. He has regularly made headlines with various off-the-rails pronouncements, and he's good at invoking God because he's also Preacherman Larry Pittman. In 2017 he wanted to repeal a provision in the state's constitution so that North Carolina could secede from the Union. No, really. Pittman also introduced a bill in 2017 that would end North Carolina's recognition of same sex marriage in defiance of the US Supreme Court, citing the Bible as the legal authority. Speaker of the House Tim Moore scuttled that plan, for which I think Pittman may have called down fire from heaven on Tim Moore's head.

In short, he's been a regular embarrassment to the Republican establishment.

Jay White

Now he's drawn what may be his first credible primary opponent from the Republican establishment, Concord attorney Jay White who has previously served two full terms on the Cabarrus County Board of Commissioners and nearly six years as its chairman. He seems sane.

Not a hint of Trumpism in his written announcement: “I am seeking the Republican nomination for House District 83 because my experience and my proven record of leadership and community involvement will enable me to serve our District. The people of the 83rd District are my friends; you are my family. Together, united by our shared values, we can make Cabarrus County and North Carolina a better place for ourselves and our children.”

Democrat Gail Young ran against Larry Pittman in 2018 and did better than anyone might have expected, drawing over 47% of the vote, and she's been building the infrastructure for another campaign for the District 83 seat in 2020. She might prefer to run against Larry Pittman rather than Jay White, who has an established name and who is, like I said, sane.

The Worst Member of the NC House

Larry Pittman

Rep. Larry Pittman of Cabarrus County represents District 83 in the NC House. He first got his seat by appointment late in 2011 and then won election in 2012 and has easily won again every general election since then. He had his first genuine threat to reelection in 2018 in the candidacy of Democrat Gail Young, who came within 1,559 votes of beating Pittman (Pittman 14,798 v. 13,240 Young).

Gail Young has already declared that she's going after Pittman's job again in 2020.

The 83rd House District is mainly in central Cabarrus County (Kannapolis and Concord) but also extends northward into southern Rowan County. The average population of NC House districts is mandated at 79,462; according to Ballotpedia, District 83 had 78,419 citizens as of the 2010 Census, yet only 28,038 of those residents opted to vote in the District 83 race in 2018 -- which suggests that Gail Young has plenty of opportunity there for expansion.

Gail Young

For comparison, in the House District 93 race -- Dem Ray Russell v. Repub Jonathan Jordan -- some 35,983 votes were cast out of basically the same size population base as District 83 (which means that in District 93, almost 8,000 more votes were cast than in District 83). In the District 37 House race in Wake County -- Dem Sydney Batch v. Repub John Adcock -- some 45,680 votes were cast, a whopping 17,642 more votes than in District 83. Clearly, District 83 was underperforming in 2018 something awful, even though it had a credible Democratic candidate running for the first time.

If my voter registration numbers are correct for District 83, the problem for Gail Young is not just general underperformance by all voters but particular underperformance by voters registered as Democrats:

Partisan Registration in NC House District 83

D-18,572
R-18,176
U-17,451

If there is a Republican lean among registered Ds in that district, there may also be a "Larry Pittman fatigue" factor in the 83rd very similar to the Trump fatigue phenomenon, though the turnout by Trump enthusiasts in 2020 isn't expected to slump noticeably. If Trump voters remain enthusiastic, a Democratic win in districts like the 83rd will still be very difficult. I hope the Gail Young campaign is raising money and identifying those voters who are disaffected with Trump -- no matter how they're registered -- and making plans to door-knock or call them. It's going to take large troops of boots-on-the-ground for a Democrat to win in many rural districts in the next presidential year.

A 2020 Re-Play: Gail Young v. Larry Pittman

NC House member Larry Pittman (R-Dist. 83) is still fighting the Civil War on the losing side. He continuously insults Abraham Lincoln as ever bit as tyrannical as Adolph Hitler, and he thinks of homosexuals as less than full citizens. He's more than just a character. He's a legislator in the North Carolina General Assembly, God help us all!

Last year in his most recent reelection he got less than 53% of the vote against Democrat Gail Young, who polled 47.22%. That ain't bad. That actually suggests that Pittman is maybe hanging onto his seat by sheer voter inertia and force of habit.

I noticed only recently that Gail Young has declared her intention of challenging Pittman once again in 2020. She's a seasoned candidate by now, and she might bank on greater name recognition this time. Here's what I wrote about her very early in 2018:

Young is an advocate for government reform and accountability and the leader of a liberal advocacy group in Cabarrus County called Citizens in Action NC. She is also a retired career public servant, having worked for a long time for the Mecklenburg County government as a Division Director of the Land Use and Environmental Services Agency. “The politicians in Raleigh are not listening to the people they represent," Young says. "I have seen firsthand how frustrated people are after they met with their elected officials. Time and again I have heard that the elected officials don’t really listen and don’t care about the thoughts and priorities of their constituents. That must end.” Redistricting reform also played a large role in Young’s decision to run for the state House. She said she sees the legislature’s redistricting process as more an attempt to protect incumbents rather than an effort to protect the voice of the people of North Carolina.

NC House District 83: A Democratic Primary Takes Shape

Larry Pittman, the man to beat

I used to hate Democratic primaries, especially on the local and district level, because they sap resources needed for the General Election and they can be unnecessarily divisive. In this Year Of The Donald, Democrats don't need more division, but "the Trump Effect" means more willing public servants crowding onto primary ballots despite an obvious lack of dollar incentive -- members of the NC General Assembly make less than $14,000 a year.

But primaries can also be opportunities for opposing candidates to sharpen their platforms, polish their presentations, generate volunteer enthusiasm, and deeply learn their districts. Opportunities for Democratic voters too. This year they're fired up to make a difference, and they want winners. Voters will be watching with keener eyes.

Who's the Republican incumbent in House District 83? Just one of the most extreme Republican members of the NC General Assembly, Preacherman Larry Pittman, who last year wanted to repeal a provision in the state's constitution so that North Carolina could secede from the Union. No, really. Pittman fancies himself the Scourge of God, and he has certainly proven to be made of rawhide. Pittman also introduced a bill last year that would end North Carolina's recognition of same sex marriage in defiance of the US Supreme Court, citing the Bible as the legal authority. Speaker of the House Tim Moore scuttled that plan, for which I think Pittman may have called down fire from heaven on Tim Moore's head.

That's the guy to beat, and it won't be easy for a Democrat. Except ... the Republican leadership might just as soon see Pittman gone. In the last round of court-ordered Republican redistricting, Pittman was double-bunked with another Republican (who opted to run for a NC Senate seat instead), and now the special master's redrawn districts makes Pittman's 83rd a little friendlier for Democrats, taking in more urban and suburban areas of Kannapolis and Concord.

Gail Young

There's going to be a Democratic primary for the opportunity to take on Pittman, and two women have stepped forward. The first was Gail Young, a Cabarrus County social activist who I wrote about earlier. The second, Senah Andrews of Concord, announced on Monday.

Andrews is a mental health specialist: "My work has been built on public service in North Carolina. I began in Raleigh at Dorothea Dix Hospital where I served women and men living with severe and persistent mental illness. Later, my husband and I moved to Concord where I have served in several roles including psychologist for group homes, psychology faculty at Rowan Cabarrus Community College and Emergency Behavioral Health Clinician working night shift in the ER of CMC Northeast. Currently I run a small practice in Concord."

In July 2003, the giant Pillowtex plant in Kannapolis closed, putting 4,800 mill workers out of work in a single day, the largest single-day layoff of workers in North Carolina history, so House District 83 had seen the worst of the economic downturn even before the stock market crash of 2008. Senah Andrews saw that devastation from up close:

Senah Andrews (center) and her family

I was teaching at RCCC at the time and was on the front line as we absorbed thousands of displaced workers into the college to build new skills and prepare for a changing labor force. Those were scary times. Fear of change, worry for the future and low morale were daily reminders that our world had shifted. The aftershock throughout our community has been felt for well over a decade. Many folks continue to struggle to earn a living wage after losing their well paying mill jobs. Morale continues to be low as hard working individuals have felt left behind. Many have struggled with substance abuse and mental illness related to extreme stress. As an emergency behavioral health clinician working in the ER at CMC Northeast I have served on the front line witnessing the personal crises that plague so many of our citizens. I have listened to the people who have become addicted to opioids and other substances and have tried to understand their pain. Professionally, I have been forced to deal with the lack of quality community resources to help folks get back on their feet or manage a psychiatric illness or addiction effectively so that they can become productive members of society. I have held mothers who have lost their children to suicide or overdose and know in my heart that the system has failed so many of our own good people.

This is going to be an interesting primary (and a constructive one, we hope), and we want to see a strong General Election candidate emerge against Larry Pittman next November.