How Big the Blue Wave in the US Senate 2020?

We're about to have some political accountability delivered to the party holding the White House and strangling the Senate. Maybe a ton of accountability for the incompetence and malfeasance that allowed the coronavirus pandemic to kill 200K (and still climbing).

Here's the list of vulnerable, incumbent Republican senators who could, according to polling and the surge of new voters who haven't always voted in the past, lose their seats on November 3rd. All of their losing would constitute a Democratic blow-out and give the Dems at least a 57-43 advantage.

They're listed here in the order of their vulnerability:

Arizona -- Incumbent Republican Sen. Martha McSally is well behind her Democratic rival, Mark Kelly, whom we headlined here back in July of this year. Cook's moved the race to "Lean Democrat."

Colorado -- Incumbent Republican Sen. Cory Gardner felt the earth move (not in a good way) when Cook moved this race to "Lean Democrat." The Democrat in question, former Governor John Hickenlooper, seems to have this sewn up. (We profiled him back in January of 2019.)

Maine -- Incumbent Republican Sen. Susan Collins has been pretty consistently trailing her Democratic rival Sara Gideon (pictured on the right). (We profiled her back before she won the Democratic primary.) Cook's rates the race a "Toss Up."

North Carolina -- Incumbent Republican Sen. Thom Tillis has been in a polling hole all year, with Democrat Cal Cunningham coming on strong and raising big money. We've profiled Cunningham many times, going back to late November 2018; June of 2019; September 2019 ("The Danger of Democratic McCreadyism"); and June 2020. Then came the trysting texts with a woman not his wife indicating a lapse of judgment. So who the hell knows where this race stands at the moment? Prior to the texting scandal, Cook's rated the race a "Toss Up."

Montana -- Republican incumbent Sen. Steve Daines is up against Democratic Governor Steve Bullock (really up against it!) in a race that moved to "Toss Up" as soon as Bullock declared his candidacy (on the last filing day). I haven't profiled Bullock at all, but he's a "moderate."

Iowa -- Incumbent Republican Sen. Joni Ernst woke up one morning and discovered that she's in real peril from the surging campaign of Democrat Theresa Greenfield (whom we profiled first in August 2019 because of her excellent introductory video; then a second time this past June). Cook's rates it "Toss Up."

Georgia -- Surprisingly, incumbent Republican Sen. David "Sonny" Perdue has also found himself in a "Toss Up" with Democrat Jon Ossoff, in whom I have little faith after he lost the special election for a Georgia US House seat in 2017. Ossoff sometimes comes off like a candidate created in a laboratory. 

Georgia -- Georgia has the unique distinction of being primed to replace both of their incumbent Republican senators. This second race is really a "jungle primary" to replace the retired Johnny Isakson. The run-off between the two top finishers on November 3rd will take place on January 5, 2021. Incumbent Republican Sen. Kelly Loeffler (appointed by the governor to fill out Isakson's term) has both a strong Republican rival in Congressman Doug Collins and a credible Democratic challenger in Rev. Raphael Warnock, whom we profiled on August 20th. Almost unbelieveably (it's freakin' Georgia, y'all!), Warnock has been leading both Republicans in some polling. Cook's rates the race "Lean Republican," though we're willing to believe in miracles.

South Carolina -- Incumbent Republican Sen. Lindsey O. Graham is having his own fright-night, threatened by another black candidate, Democrat Jaime Harrison (whom we profiled here). Cook moved the race from "Of Course Lindsey Graham Will Win Reelection" to "Lean Republican," to show just how squishy Graham's support has become. He won't be missed.

Kansas -- It's an open seat following the retirement of Republican Sen. Pat Roberts. Democrat Barbara Bollier (who was a registered Republican until December 2018) is facing Republican Roger Marshall. Looks like the polling has veered all over the place, so who knows? Cook's rates it "Lean Republican." But there have been signs (the flipping of CD 3 by Democrat Sharice Davids in 2018) that previously set-in-Republican-concrete Kansas is loosening up.

Alaska -- Incumbent Republican Sen. Dan Sullivan is being challenged not by a Democrat but by an independent, orthopedic surgeon Al Gross, who'd likely caucus with the Democrats. The most recent polling I've seen has Sullivan at 46% and Gross at 45%, and Alaska has past history of electing independents over nominal Republicans (Lisa Murkowski). Cook's still has the race at "Likely Republican."

Texas -- Incumbent Republican Sen. John Cornyn was once upon a time considered pretty vulnerable to a strong Democratic candidate in a watershed year like 2020 is likely to be, but is Democratic challenger M.J. Hegar that candidate? Dunno. I loved her fighting spirit when she ran for the US House against an entrenched Republican incumbent in 2018, but she went through a debilitating Democratic primary to cement her spot in this fight, and I'm hearing a lot of poor-mouthing from friends in Texas. Cook's rates it "Likely Republican," which seems about right.

Mississippi -- Incumbent Republican Cindy Hyde-Smith suddenly has a race on her hands from Democrat Mike Espy, who has surged in recent polling to 40% to Hyde-Smith's 41% (still a lot of undecideds). Espy was formerly Mississippi's first black congressman since Reconstruction and Secretary of Agriculture under President Bill Clinton. He is currently and since 2008 an attorney with the mega-firm Morgan and Morgan in Jackson, Miss., and also runs his own consulting firm specializing in governmental relations, rural development, food and nutrition, and international agricultural development issues. Cook's is not sanguine about Espy's chances; they rate it "Solid Republican." But would it not be something beyond imagining if Black Democrats in Georgia (Warnock), South Carolina (Harrison), and Mississippi (Espy) took out Republican incumbents in a truly massive Blue Wave?

 

Below: Mike Espy in Mississippi. Does he really have a shot at taking out an incumbent Republican senator: 

Who Produced This Campaign Video? It's Genius!

Here's M.J. Hegar's "(Re)Introduction" for her campaign for US Senate in Texas against John Cornyn ... just because I can't stop watching it and because it's the new gold standard for what candidate videos ought to accomplish -- personality over prescription. It's even better than her "Doors" introduction when she ran for Congress in 2018.





Of course, M.J. Hegar has a primary to get through to take on Cornyn (on March 3rd, Super Tuesday), and she's up against some other strong Democrats (at least seven others, at last count, with more in the wings still considering it).

Good videos don't necessarily translate to votes, but they certainly don't hurt. They can help people decide to write checks, if nothing else.

FOOTNOTE
I'm told that Putnam Partners did the video, which probably means that North Carolina's own Frank Eaton had a hand in it.

Democratic Losers in 2018 May Be Reborn as 2020 Winners

Could losing a high-profile Congressional race in 2018 actually fuel a Democratic candidate into winning a 2020 Senate race?

That's the question facing two women who were favorites of ours last year: Amy McGrath in Kentucky and M.J. Hegar in Texas. Both veterans of the military -- McGrath an ex-fighter pilot and Hegar an ex-helicopter pilot -- they were also both remarkably good at making an impression and raising money.

McGrath lost her race to incumbent Republican Congressman Andy Barr in the Kentucky 6th by 9,700 votes out of almost 303,000 total votes cast. M.J. Hegar lost to incumbent Republican Congressman John R. Carter in the Texas 31st by 8,300 votes out of 286,000. Both significantly closer than should have been expected, because the Kentucky 6th was rated R+10 and the Texas 31st, a whopping R+21. Pretty good damn showing for first-time novice candidates.

Politico reported back in February -- but I just found it today -- that Sen. Chuck Schumer was trying to recruit McGrath to go after Mitch McConnell's Senate seat. That would excite a lot of people, but McGrath underperformed in the rural precincts of the 6th District and would need a new plan for running statewide, which is majorly rural. The urban-rural divide is the battle line right now, and the McGrath campaign would have to grapple with why there's resistance to her among rural people -- despite her being an accomplished warrior for America, a Marine, one of the first female fighter pilots in U.S. history, a wife, and a mother.





Here's the best part for Amy McGrath, if she decides to run again: Mitch McConnell is underwater in his own state, and has been for some time. His approval rating in Kentucky was 33% this past February, with a 56% disapproval. In 2017, he had an 18% approval rating.


M.J. (Mary Jennings) Hegar describes herself as "an ass-kicking, motorcycle-riding Texas Democrat." She's an actual war hero. She has a Purple Heart (as well as the Distinguished Flying Cross with Valor) for combat in Afghanistan, where she piloted rescue helicopters. She's married now with two young children and lives in Round Rock. And she's got an Expert Marksman rating with both handgun and rifle.

The "ass-kicking" part came across loud and clear in her introductory video:





Hegar is already in as a candidate. She announced in April. She'll have to get past Joaquin Castro in a primary (along with a host of lesser-known Democrats). Joaquin is twin brother to Julian of presidential debate fame and the mayor of San Antonio. He's probably better known than Hegar statewide, so that primary will be no picnic. I don't think that will deter M.J. Hegar in the least.

UPDATE
Amy McGrath announced she was running against McConnell on July 9.

Movement Is All in the Democratic Direction

Political prognosticator Larry Sabato at the University of Virginia issued new Crystal Ball ratings yesterday. They show movement, and all of it is in the direction of the Democrats. Here's the chart I found most interesting because we've focused on WatWatch on some of these Republican incumbents and their Democratic challengers. See discussion below the chart.

Crystal Ball House ratings changes

Member/District	Old Rating	New Rating
French Hill (R, AR-2)	Likely Republican	Leans Republican
Vern Buchanan (R, FL-16)	Likely Republican	Leans Republican
Charlie Crist (D, FL-13)	Likely Democratic	Safe Democratic
Steve King (R, IA-4)	Safe Republican	Likely Republican
David Young (R, IA-3)	Leans Republican	Toss-up
Peter Roskam (R, IL-6)	Leans Republican	Toss-up
Trey Hollingsworth (R, IN-9)	Safe Republican	Likely Republican
Jackie Walorski (R, IN-2)	Safe Republican	Likely Republican
Andy Barr (R, KY-6)	Leans Republican	Toss-up
Mike Bishop (R, MI-8)	Leans Republican	Toss-up
NM-2 Open (Pearce, R)	Likely Republican	Leans Republican
Steve Chabot (R, OH-1)	Leans Republican	Toss-up
OH-12 Special (Tiberi, R)	Leans Republican	Toss-up
Mike Kelly (R, PA-16)	Safe Republican	Likely Republican
John Carter (R, TX-31)	Safe Republican	Likely Republican
John Culberson (R, TX-7)	Leans Republican	Toss-up
WV-3 Open (Jenkins, R)	Leans Republican	Toss-up

*The movement in notorious Steve King's 4th Iowa District might startle the horses, unless you've been paying attention to his Democratic challenger J.D. Sholten. We wrote about him on June 16.

*Andy Barr's seat in Kentucky's 6th District has moved to a toss-up between him and Amy McGrath, about whom we've written several times. She's one of the stand-out stars of 2018.

*In the 12th Congressional District of Ohio, with a special election coming on August 7 for an open seat, Democrat Danny O'Connor is now rated a toss-up to take the seat.

*The movement in John Carter's Texas District 31 is especially noteworthy, because one of the most electrifying Democrats we've observed all year, M.J. Hegar, is getting national attention with her introductory video.

*John Culberson's 7th Congressional District in Texas is now rated a toss-up. We took quick note of his Democratic challenger Lizzie Pannill Fletcher way back on December 19 of last year. She's obviously making waves.

*Finally, the open seat in West Virginia's 3rd District is suddenly now a toss-up. We took notice of the Democratic challenger, Richard Ojeda, on June 19. There hasn't been a viable Democrat in that district of West Virginia in many years.

Still Finding New Reasons To Feel Great About 2018

Are You Hanging On for November?
Me too.

It's the only way to deal with the continuing cruelty of our government toward brown people seeking asylum. And the continuing lust for power by our Republican overlords in Raleigh, who are now proposing multiple constitutional amendments to keep themselves overlording us forever.

New Hope in Texas
Stuff like this.

I've seen some good -- very good and just plain stupendously good -- campaign videos this year. I have to rank MJ Hegar's in that latter group:






Texas Congressional District 31

It's Williamson County, y'all (and parts of Bell County), so naturally I feel some vested interest. It takes in much of Round Rock, Texas, a northern suburb of Austin, all of Temple, and much of Killeen. And the ranching country in between. It also contains Fort Hood, "the largest military installation in the world," which becomes interesting when we consider the military vet running as the Democrat (see above and below).

The Cook Partisan Voter Index rates the district R+10. Trump carried it by 13 points; Romney, by 21 (and when you think about it, that's a possibly significant drop-off in Republican performance in 2016). Sabato's Crystal Ball rates it "Solid Republican." Some 30,735 Democrats turned out for the primary in March, compared to 52,697 Republicans, which further displays dismal prospects for any ordinary Democratic challenger.

Incumbent Republican Congressman John R. Carter won his last reelection in 2016 with 58% of the vote. He's been in the chair since 2002, when the district was first created following the findings of the 2010 Census.

Republican Incumbent John R. Carter

John R. Carter

If you were casting a movie about the silly denizens of New York, and you needed a tall, chiseled actor to play the Texan who'll come in and tell everyone they're full of shit, you'd hire John R. Carter. He's prototypical Texas. You could use his portrait in a religio-political icon. He looks the part of the steely-eyed rounder up of strays, a bullshit detective, and a good man to have on your side -- all wrapped up in that John Connelly-esque visage. 

Photos lie, though. He's actually quite short and may not be the fastest gun in the West (see above).

He trained as a lawyer at the University of Texas School of Law and had a successful private practice in Round Rock. He's pigeon-holed himself in Congress as part of the military-industrial feeding corps. He has personal big $$ investments in oil stocks. For a time, he was a prominent "birther" in his reaction to President Obama.

He has a well earned reputation for ignoring and shutting out his constituents (see the video above, for one example). "Mr. Carter will not hold town meetings, and he doesn't publicize his schedule so voters don't have a chance to engage with him on issues that matter to them," said a constituent who was so pissed off she was planning to run against Carter this year. She didn't, but MJ Hegar did.

MJ (Mary Jennings) Hegar, Democratic Insurgent

She describes herself as "an ass-kicking, motorcycle-riding Texas Democrat," and that'll play in the 31st District. She's an actual war hero. She has a Purple Heart (as well as the Distinguished Flying Cross with Valor) for combat in Afghanistan, where she piloted rescue helicopters. She's married now with two young children and lives in Round Rock.

According to her website, she was one of Newsweek's 125 Women of Impact in 2012, and she earned an MBA from the University of Texas following her military career. She's also been recognized by Foreign Policy magazine as a Leading Global Thinker. Plus she's got an Expert Marksman rating with both handgun and rifle.

Hegar wrote a well received memoir about her three tours in Afghanistan, Shoot Like a Girl, which was immediately optioned by Hollywood with Angelina Jolie attached to star in it. At this time, the movie is described as "in development" ... so who knows when, or even if. Even without the movie treatment, Hegar has earned celebrity status.

If the video above is any indication of how she interacts with the voting public, and if she can get that personality known in the district (let alone her personal history), she's going to be a contender in November.