Saturday, August 15, 2020

Holy Cow! The Democrats Are Out-Raising Republicans (By a Lot!) in NC House Races

Having lots of money-supporters doesn't mean you're going to win. But it doesn't hurt. It signals energy and excitement -- real fire producing all that smoke.

I've just spent some time perusing the 2nd Quarter fundraising/expenditure totals for many of the NC House and NC Senate contests, especially "races to watch." These figures were aggregated by RealFactsNC, a Raleigh/Chapel Hill 501(c)(4) non-profit dedicated to research. It's also dedicated to the progressive wave. Me likee research. It's my drug of choice, and I've been riffing on numbers (and prognostications) provided by RealFactsNC for at least a year. Good work, guys.

Here's what most noticeable: In almost every House district currently contested by insurgent Democrats challenging flippable incumbent Republicans, the Democrat is outraising -- often by a lot -- the Republican. (I'll write about the Senate races to watch separately, probably tomorrow.) That fundraising advantage is amplified if it's a race between a freshman Democrat who won in the 2018 Blue Wave and a new Republican opponent. Take Democrat Ray Russell's race for reelection in HD93 (Watauga and Ashe). He reports having almost $200,000, cash on hand as of July 10. Ray's Republican opponent, Ray Pickett, made no report. He's been relying on dark money expenditures, attacks on Ray's character by anonymous 3rd parties, to get him across the finish line first. But still.

'Wow!' Down on the Coast

NCH1 -- Democrat Emily Bunch Nicholson ... $108,876.98, cash on hand

Republican incumbent Ed Goodwin ... $22,637. cash on hand

(I wrote about Nicholson and others most likely to flip a House seat back in June, based on RealFactsNC and other sources.)

[NOTE: All links below connect to previous coverage in WataugaWatch]

Races to Watch

NCH12 -- Democrat Virginia Cox-Daugherty ... $109,876.24
Republican Chris Humphrey ... $47.741.77

NCH20 -- Democrat Adam Ericson ... $103,263.84

 Republican Ted Davis ... $33,304.04

NCH43 Open Seat -- Democrat Kimberly Hardy ...  $119,881.22

Republican Diane Wheatley ... $2,346.21

NCH51 -- Democrat Jason Cain ... $100,178.31

Republican John Sauls ... $65,178.31

NCH63 -- Democrat Ricky Hurtado ... $143,423.45

Republican Stephen Ross ... $28,263.86

NCH74 -- Democrat Dan Besse ... $155, 546.78

Republican Jeff Zenger ... $17,357.58

NCH82 -- Democrat Aimy Steele ... $193,752.14

Republican Kristin Baker ... $10,615.72

NCH83 -- Democrat Gail Young ... $155,150.23

Republican Larry Pitts ... $19,285.82 

NCH59 -- Democrat Nicole Quick ... $168,256.04 

Republican Jon Hardister ... $123.940.21

2018 "Wave" Winners Defending Their Seats 

NCH35 -- Democrat Terrence Everitt ... $96,786.40

Republican Fred Von Canon ... $43,614.99

NCH36 -- Democrat Julie von Haefen ... $108,842.88

Republican Kim Coley ... $20,844.50

NCH37 -- Democrat Sydney Batch ... $307,493.00

Republican Erin Pare ... $66.817.36

NCH93 -- see above, 3rd paragraph

NCH98 -- Democrat Christy Clark ... $199,360.16

Republican John Bradford ... $134.700.55

NCH103 -- Democrat Rachel Hunt ... $335,570.39

Republican Bill Brawley ... $26,092.01

NCH104 -- Democrat Brandon Lofton ... $117,944.45

Republican Don Pomeroy ... $82,506.93

NCH105 -- Democrat Wesley Harris ... $45,206.13

Republican Amy Bynum ... $6,261.54

NCH119 -- Democrat Joe Sam Queen ... $116,645.25

Republican Mike Clampitt ... $5,652.53

Surprises: Where Democratic Insurgents Are Trailing

NCH9 -- Democrat Brian Farkas ... $140,053.68

Republican Perrin Jones ... $176,122.71

NCH45 -- Democrat Frances Vinell Jackson ... $133,172.42

Republican John Szoka ... $211,328.66

Down in Wilmington

NCH19 -- Democrat Marcia Morgan ... $91,397.18

Republican Charlie Miller ... $12,757.18

I wrote about Marcia Morgan enthusiastically when she ran in 2018, and I was rooting for her to try again this year. But watching her primary back in March against another Democrat, I thought she'd win it, but I worried about a noticeable lack of energy. Seems to be plenty of energy in these fundraising numbers.

1 comment:

Amy Hooker Kidd said...

Hey, J.W. Thanks for mentioning Marcia again--the campaign is going well! I'm her campaign manager--feel free to reach out if you're interested in chatting. All the best, Amy Hooker Kidd, info at electmarciamorgan dot com