All Eyes on These Democrats in NC's "Bellwether County," New Hanover

 

In 2016 Watauga County was designated a "bellwether county" -- one of ten across the nation in that year's battleground states -- because Watauga's political history suggested we more often than not voted for the eventual winner of the presidential race. D'oh. We lost our status in 2016 because Watauga went roguishly for Hillary instead of for the winner, Twitterman. 

So much for an alpha sheep decked with a bell who leads the other sheep.

But we're delighted to see New Hanover County listed again as a bellwether county. Not its first time. The Associated Press named it a bellwether in 2016, along with Watauga: "New Hanover County was chosen because Republicans and Democrats are split almost evenly in Wilmington and the surrounding area, and the number of independents registered here has risen so much since the last presidential election that they now outnumber both parties."

Now for 2020, New Hanover gets the honor again in a list compiled by Dave Wasserman, House editor at the Cook Political Report. The New York Times published it as "opinion," and it's pretty damn interesting. Haven't investigated all the other counties on the new list -- I'll get around to them -- but New Hanover rises in the east today like the sun, and I can't take any more light at the moment. Several men and women from New Hanover, either already in the General Assembly (some flipped their seats in 2018), or are trying to get there, fill my eyeballs today -- the potential and the odds for Democrats' taking back the General Assembly in 2020. 

Here's a primer:

NC House Districts

Dist. 18 -- Deb Butler (incumbent Democrat), one of the most famous progressive warriors in the General Assembly, challenged by Republican Warren Kennedy. Bitzer rates the district "Safe Democratic."

 

Dist. 19 (only part of New Hanover, with a larger slice of New Brunswick to the south-- problematic for a Democratic win minus a Blue Wave) -- Open seat. Democrat Marcia Morgan is being challenged by Republican Charlie Miller. Quoting myself from January of this year:

Morgan is a 74-year-old Baby Boomer born in 1946. She was an educator, became a career Army officer who retired as a colonel. She taught ROTC and did two tours at the Pentagon including a staff position with the Army Chief of Staff. She says, "I have thoroughly enjoyed retirement and the freedom to do as I please, but the current political environment has challenged me to step forward once again. I do not have a background in politics, but I DO have a strong sense of service to this community and a demonstrated ability to accomplish difficult tasks. I believe we have a commitment to improve our economy, provide equal opportunities for all and protect our environment – and one of the fundamental ways to accomplish those things is through quality education." She details her career, which took her all over the world for the Army, on her website.

Morgan has been endorsed by Lillian's List. She came within 883 votes of beating Ted Davis in 2018 in the old District 19. The last fundraising report I've seen suggested a good effort on her part for 2020.

 

 

Dist. 20 -- Ted Davis, incumbent Republican, formerly in the 19th but drawn out of that district and into Holly Grange's district. The double-bunking of incumbent Republicans was certainly part of Holly Grange's decision to opt out of reelection and run for governor against Dan Forest instead (a remarkably empty gesture in today's NCGOP). Democrat Adam Ericson, a public high school teacher, is challenging Davis. FlipNC.org analysis of the prospect: "Gov. Cooper lost the newly constituted NC-H20 by just 5 points in 2016, and the NC House race was just as close in 2018. The pool of left-leaning voters who stayed home in NC-H20 in 2018 was about 14 points more left-leaning than the folks who came out to the polls, and the great news is that 2020 primary turnout was up 30% over 2016!"

 

NC Senate

Dist. 9 -- Harper Peterson (incumbent Democrat: elected 2018), challenged by Republican attorney Mike Lee. Rated a "Toss Up" by Bitzer. Peterson beat Lee in 2018, so this is a rematch. Fundraising on both sides has been eye-popping, though Lee was edging Peterson slightly in the $$ race the last time I looked. Peterson is a former mayor of Wilmington and has been very visible in the controversy surrounding the pollution of the Cape Fear River.

 

U.S. House

Dist. 7 -- David Rouzer, incumbent Republican, challenged by Democrat Christopher Ward. Considered a safe Republican district because of all that rural real estate north of Wilmington, Republican counties stretching all the way to Johnston County just south of Wake.

https://www.chriswardforcongress.com

What We Lefties Want -- Only "The Last American Hero"

Raleigh News and Observer

The Blue Wave of 2018 in North Carolina was Christmas morning all over again. The lust for the ballot among Democrats and liberal-minded independents beat anything I've seen in a while. Yes, 2006 was an enthusiastic year too. So was 1990, with Harvey Gantt on the ballot against Jesse Helms. And 2008. But since 2008? Not so much … until Donald J. Trump became president. In 2018 we nailed a decade "high." The Gospel Truth: That Democratic surge must last through 2020, and any sign of waning enthusiasm, any slight drying up of the Democratic sap, worries the everlasting daylights out of me.

I've heard or read, "Oh, the Blue Wave of 2018 played itself out, and Democratic enthusiasm for new elections and new candidates ain't what it used to be. And besides that, the Party's split between Biden conservatives and Bernie socialists, and they'll never reconcile. If the socialists gain the upper hand, you can kiss your 200-year-old Party goodbye." 

You hear that in the mainstream press -- prophets and prognosticators trying to divine public moods. I actually agree with some of it, the potential for a split in the Party, but I still warm my fingers and toes at the smoldering fire, the group vow to defend democracy in this critical hour -- resist with everything we've got both the bunch running DeeCee and the bunch running Raleigh, no matter the hap. That lighter-knot of a hot coal is just waiting for some air.

The Dan McCready loss in the 9th CD special election wasn't a sign of Democratic dehydration to me. Oh, Democrats stayed home in droves, yes. Robeson County, majority Democrat by a wide margin, didn't turn out for McCready. That was the case in other counties. Would they have caught fire if the candidate wasn’t shy to strike sparks on the flintstone? Would they have turned out for a more progressive fighter? Would they have churned at the polls for the North Carolina version of Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez?

There's a whole wing of Democratic campaign operatives who preach moderation. Don't get too far out on any liberal limb because the Republicans will go apeshit and call you a "socialist" and cause moderate, rural Dems to turn away from you as a threat to their very way of life. Because they're capable of believing your average con artist.

Here's my beef with that version of reality: They're gonna label you, dear ole Democrat, no matter whether you fight on principle or not. And depending on the candidate, moderation becomes mildness, which projects weakness. Even in an ex-Marine. In his gingerly handling of issues big to Democrats, McCready always seemed to be dodging imaginary bullets. Nice guy. With nice-guy flexibility. 

I'm sorry it's happened, but the Trump model of bullying masculinity -- authoritarianism -- has demanded a manly and O make no mistake, womanly fortitude to resist, to take down the bully on the playground to save the littler kids. That's what Democrats want right now in a candidate for public office. And so do "soft" Republicans currently nauseous at the sight of Trump.

Here's what I've been leading up to…

Just when we might fall to worrying that Democratic enthusiasm is fading, the Republican bosses in Raleigh, the Moore-Berger duopoly, pull a breathtaking stunt that is so nakedly dishonest and unfair that it wakes thousands in an instant, reminds them what they're fighting for, and what against, and calls them to the ramparts to preserve any last vestige of honesty, fair-dealing, respect, a sense of ethics, any streak of humanity still remaining in the administration of our state's legislative body.

Progressives who've grown silent since 2018 are suddenly talking, shouting, on social media and in social gatherings. They're excited by a Deb Butler in the House, who became the instant Town Crier on alert yesterday morning, and got loud and stood in Speaker Tim Moore's metaphorical face. That's what we want to see. That's what we need, incidentally, in a U.S. senatorial candidate.

Ironically for the Republican bosses, the sneak vote on overriding the Governor's veto of the budget was the wind we needed to blow the smoldering coal back into life. When have the Republicans ever accurately calculated the public reaction to one of their power-grabs?

A NOTE ON MIXED METAPHORS

I am fully aware that the Blue Wave of paragraph one became the smoldering fire of paragraph three -- only to prove, O My Brethren, that I can miraculously combine fire and water.

Lesson for Democrats in Raleigh: Republicans Always Lie and Don't Play Fair

Despicable.

House Speaker Tim Moore suddenly called a vote on over-riding Governor Cooper's veto of the Republican budget while almost half the House was attending other events on this 18th anniversary of 9/11. The override passed 55-9. This was after Moore had indicated to various Democratic leaders that no votes would be taken today.

For Republicans, the General Assembly is Thunderdome, and they're wearing impenetrable armor (they think).

I want revenge. We'll get it too. I want small-minded, shriveled-heart, bile-belching revenge. If that's the way they play it.

Rep. Deb Butler expressed the anger of all the Democrats in the NC House.

Thinking Out of the Box for a Democrat Who Could Beat Thom Tillis

I'm looking at every pooh-bah's available list of "potential" Democratic candidates to take on Republican Senator Thom Tillis in 2020, and I can't help noticing that generally they're all men (and more about them in a later post). There are outstanding women in politics in this state -- let alone thousands who haven't established a public presence or profile yet -- who are not only qualified for that high office but also potentially very electable in a new world wrought in response to Twitterman. He's the first cause of global politics change, and I think we know by now that previously improbable movements can coalesce quickly around the right candidate, all other things being basically even.

The women written about here aren't necessarily interested in running for higher office. I get that. But if not one of them, then someone like them should be thinking about it.

Pricey Harrison during
Early Voting, 2018

NC House Rep Pricey Harrison (HD61) -- An attorney, Harrison represents much of Greensboro. First elected in 2004 in HD57, redistricted into HD61 last year, she won over 70% of the vote this past November. She's an environmental champion. She's also advocated for medical marijuana laws. She volunteered repeatedly for other candidates up and down the ballot, campaigning even with a broken leg and wrist. 

She's often described with the bland phrase "civic leader," which hardly does her justice. She has served as president of the Julian Price Family Foundation and in leadership with the NC Environmental Defense Fund and the Piedmont Land Conservancy.

She was very outspoken about the dangers of coal ash contamination after the Dan River spill seven years ago. She is a whistleblower of the best kind, someone in public office where her voice and her votes might make a difference. She's on top of issues, knows her facts -- especially about North Carolina's vulnerability to catastrophic climate change -- and she was outraged by the Republican super-majority's "unprecedented" power grabs.

She's good on her feet. Here she is addressing protestors against a pro-fracking bill outside the General Assembly in 2014:

Charlotte Mayor Vi Lyles -- Lyles won election in Charlotte only a year ago, first defeating incumbent Democratic Mayor Jennifer Roberts (who had the bad luck to preside over the city during the Republicans' bathroom bill debacle), and then going on to get almost 60% of the vote against the Republican candidate. Lyles is the first African American woman in that seat, though not the first African American (Harvey Gantt had that distinction back in the 1990s). Previously, Lyles had worked for the city of Charlotte as a budget analyst and assistant city manager. She ran for city council and won in 2013, was elected mayor pro-ten in 2015, and following the shooting of Keith Lamont Scott in 2016, "she proposed a seven-point plan to reduce racial and class divisions in the city," parts of which were passed by the council.

Recently (December 2018) the Charlotte Observer said, "She has been the mayor Charlotte needed." She has received praise from Republican conservatives as a "graceful" peacemaker between city factions. "Her style is so even-handed and thoughtful and positive," said NC Senator Dan Bishop, a Mecklenburg Republican.

The Observer described her as "cautious" and as something of a brake on the city's leftward propulsion under a new and very diverse city council (ever since the bathroom bill, pushback by progressives has become more assertive). 

Some -- many? -- progressives were pissed that she advocated for the Republican National Convention in Charlotte in 2020 ("it will bring more risk than payoff," editorialized the Charlotte Observer), but by her own lights -- she was elected to advocate for the municipality, after all -- a national convention even of idiots will benefit the economic development of the city.

She's calm, composed, and well prepared as she defends her decision on the RNC before a Democratic Women's group of Mecklenburg County:

NC House Rep Deb Butler (HD18) -- An attorney long active in Democratic politics, Butler represents much of Wilmington and has become a prominent whistleblower about the toxin Gen-X in the Cape Fear River. She also fought the highly controversial House Bill 2 ("bathroom bill") in 2016. Tragically, Butler's wife of three years, Anni Parra, died suddenly and unexpectedly four days before New Year's. She was 52. This is perhaps the worst timing possible for this discussion, and I hope Rep. Butler will forgive me. 

Butler's fight for LBGTQ rights predates her service in the House. She ran in 2012 for the NC Senate (SD8) and lost to creepy Thom Goolsby. When Democratic Rep. Susi Hamilton (HD18) resigned early in 2017 to take a cabinet post, Governor Cooper appointed Butler to her seat. Though she's new to the body, she immediately stepped out (both literally and figuratively) as an effective voice of resistance to the Republican super-majority. In November's election, she took over 60% of the vote.

Butler started posting commentaries as she walked around the General Assembly building, or in near neighborhoods, where she could get some fresh air and cool off -- talking clearly and effectively, with appropriate passion and resolve, about what the Republicans were up to that day. (I wish I could post one here, but I can't. They're on Butler's Twitter feed. Her most recent, on December 7, is riveting. The Republicans were overriding Governor Cooper's veto of the VoterID Bill, trying to distract everyone from the real and present ballot fraud down in NC-9, which would not have been stopped by voter photo ID, and Butler had had it.)

Here's her "walk and talk" from 13 June, when she was leaving the General Assembly at 11:30 pm, after hours of Republican bullying. She was flourescently a-light about what had just gone on.

Aside from proving she's pretty damn agile -- I can barely walk, let alone walk while videoing myself! -- she has the presence and the smarts to start a movement. Short version: I want to listen to her.

She told the Port City Daily, "I've been accused of being perhaps too straightforward sometimes, but I just don't know any other way. There is a lot that needs fixing in North Carolina and in Washington, and I think people are tired of the arguing and are looking for intelligent, forthright, and candid representatives who focus on solutions instead of division and churning everyone up all the time."

She supports an independent redistricting commission to end the practice of office-holders' choosing their voters. She supports restoring the tax rebate program for the film industry, which worked for so many years to build businesses in Wilmington and across the state and which the Republicans repealed. The film industry took its business to Georgia and elsewhere.

How the Outside Money Rolled in NC

From the bottom of this chart, going up:
The NC House 93 race was the Tarleton/Jordan contest.

The NC Senate 9 race was the Deb Butler/Thom Goolsby race down in Wilmington.

The NC Senate 18 race was the Doug Berger/Chad Barefoot race.

The NC House 2 race was for Jim Crawford's old seat, which was open once Crawford lost his primary.

The NC Senate 50 race was the John Snow/Jim Davis race south of Asheville; Snow was trying to take his old seat back from Davis.

The NC House 41 race was the Jim Messina/Tom Murry race down in Raleigh.

The NC House 98 race was the ... well, it really wasn't a race at all, because Republican Speaker Thom Tillis was unopposed. He's exactly the kind of character the Deep Pockets like to shovel money at. Because they're grateful for the special favors.

Deb Butler for NC Senate

Other NC General Assembly campaigns could take a page from Deb Butler's challenge to incumbent Republican Senator Thom Goolsby in NC Senate Dist. 9, who voted for the new, intrusive anti-abortion law in the state. This isn't Butler's first use of the transvaginal wand. Previously.

Here's the new TV ad: