Thank You, Stacey Abrams!

 

A 50-50 split in the US Senate, with Vice President Kamala Harris the tie-breaker, and Mitch McConnell no longer the 500-pound tortoise sitting on every progressive initiative. This morning may be the first time I've really felt hopeful in months. 

The apparent wins of Raphael Warnock and Jon Ossoff are particular triumphs of the amazing Stacey Abrams, who after she lost the Georgia governor race in 2018 against Brian Kemp, what did she do? She started Fair Fight and began the voter registration and get-out-the-vote drives that first turned Georgia blue for Joe Biden and then made it possible for him to get his cabinet confirmed and his appointments of federal judges approved.

I'm hearing Abrams may run for Georgia governor again in 2022.

I'm Thinking of Becoming a Shallow Person

 

Because keeping up and caring about all this stuff is so exhausting.

I mean, I loved "The Apprentice," especially "Celebrity Apprentice," and I think having such an ingenious -- he came up with all those tasks every week -- and decisive president is what people I follow on Twitter say we need right now. Anyways, when is the election exactly?

I've heard of socialism. It's bad. I will avoid it like I avoid looking like a slouch when I go out of the house.

I don't even know what the state legislature does. Something about naming post offices, I think. No, I've never heard of Phil Berger or Tim Moore. Were they on "The Apprentice"?

I keep hearing about a big party in Georgia pretty soon after New Year's, and if there's live music I want to go sooo bad. The travel problems -- not just the weather in January, but have you ever been in traffic in Atlanta? Plus people look at you hard about those masks. This flu everybody's talking about -- I've had the flu before and it's no biggie. Besides, I had my flu shot. And how come the lines at the drive-throughs are miles long? Who's playing in Georgia, anyway? If I had a list of the performers, I could see if it's really worth the effort. Maybe I should try to get others to help drive and share the gas.

I don't know a thing about student debt, about why all those Black people are protesting, about "unemployment benefits and relief packages for the middle class," about Afghanistan and Iraq and the rest of "foreign policy" (yuk!), about some chick at the GSA (whatever that is?), about whether or not the climate is changing for the bad ... so don't even. Don't even ask me. I have heard about maybe North Carolina's legalizing marijuana, and I'm interested in that.

I keep hearing that The Donald is burning something in Washington, or "burning it down." That makes me a little nervous. Maybe it's the National Christmas Tree they're talking about, but we always waited until after New Year's to burn ours. That's why I'm a little nervous, not knowing what they're talking about.

Anyhow, I hear "The Crown" is terrific, and I mean to get to it as soon as I finish bingeing on all ten seasons of "Curb Your Enthusiasm."

Mark Your Calendars: Trump Gets Dunked Again in Georgia 4 Days After New Year's

 

On January 5th, the voters in Georgia will need to go back to the polls for a crucial run-off election. There's some thought out there that it'll be another referendum on Trump (I add to that thought below against my will because I want so much to be done with him). Those voters in Georgia also done with Trump will need to come out on January 5th with greater force than they mustered last Tuesday, which was a lot, because control of the US Senate is on the line. My peeps in Georgia need either to vote early (early voting will go on for 3 weeks and will start just a month from now -- yikes!), or request an absentee-by-mail ballot, or plan to show up appropriately dressed at a local poll on January 5th -- to select not one but two US Senators. Both Republican Kelly Loeffler's seat (she was just appointed this year and has to run in her own right by state law) and Republican David Perdue's seat (he's finishing his 1st term) are on the line. They're forced into runoffs because neither received 50% + 1 of the vote last Tuesday. Loeffler got 25.9% in the three-way special election, trailing Democrat Raphael Warnock by over 341,000 votes, while Perdue is currently leading Democrat Jon Ossoff with 49.8% of the vote, not 50% + 1. Currently, because the count is still going on in Georgia. Perdue leads Ossoff by 90,274 votes. 

My main political ops contact down there told me this:

Yes, there is a chance [Democrats could win those seats]. 

However, Blacks are historically iffy on participation in runoffs. That it’s in January is a problem, too. 

Warnock proved to be a great surprise and would have won outright if only Lieberman’s kid and those other bozos dropped their vanity campaigns [7 other Dems were on the ballot with Warnock including former Senator Joe Lieberman's son]. Still the key to victory for either or both will be GOTV.

The other factor is the sheer power of the Republicans to galvanize quickly around bozos and, in the case of Loeffler, bozettes. Clearly, she can be beaten because she's still pretty easily baited. Perdue just hides. I doubt he’ll do a real interview or open town hall type thing through the process. Point is, it will be tough, but I think it can be done.

I personally know three people in Watauga and Caldwell counties who plan to go down and volunteer their time and shoe leather to Stacey Abrams' Fair Fight org, which has been a major mover of the Black vote and which can be totally credited if Joe Biden ends up carrying Georgia (which seems likely). Currently, Biden leads Trump in Georgia by 10,196 votes.

There'll be hundreds, if not thousands, of Democratic activists heading from all over the nation to Georgia, from now through Thanksgiving, Christmas, and New Year's. Guest-housing is going to be at a premium. And money's gonna gush on both sides. You know McConnell will turn on the hose and so should Democratic money-bags. If you (not that you're a money-bag) want to donate to Fair Fight, go here.

Will the Runoff Be a Referendum on Trump?

You betcha.

From the looks of it, Trumpists are prepared to deny reality going into the next millennium. Trump has every intention of fanning those flames. Will their resentments and lust for revenge drive even more Trumpists to the polls on January 5th? Or will they get over it by then? Doubtful the latter, reasonably to be expected the former (although maybe by January 5th they'll still be hungover from the combo of bust-head and fantasy scenarios of mass extermination). Isn't it likely that Trump, still in performance mode as King Lear, will bestow his blessing on both Loeffler and Perdue to keep his legacy alive in the Senate?

Because if both Loeffler and Perdue lose, the US Senate goes to a 50-50 split with Kamala Harris empowered by the Constitution to break ties. Now that's a prospect -- unlikely as it may be -- to galvanize volunteers and electrify a voting population historically accustomed to losing but now transformed by Stacey Abrams' amazing energy. The new majority will be looking to nail some pelts to the old smokehouse door.

About the 50% + 1 Rule in Georgia

In most other states -- the vast majority not below the Mason Dixon Line -- a plurality of votes in a primary wins even if 50% + 1 didn't choose the winner. The 50% rule is popular in the South because ... well, think about it. Loeffler has a runoff with a Black candidate:

Georgia’s runoff law was created in the 1960s as a way to preserve white political power in a majority-white state and diminish the influence of Black politicians who could more easily win in a multicandidate race with a plurality of the vote, according to an Interior Department report.

Since the 1990s, Democrats have won only one of seven statewide runoffs in general or special elections, according to Inside Elections, the nonpartisan political newsletter. [Luke Broadwater]

The Two Democrats

I've written about Ossoff multiple times, but this is probably the money shot. No, this is the money shot, courtesy of YouTube -- the moment in Ossoff's one debate with Perdue when Ossoff called him a crook to his face and Perdue had no defense nor denial. This is the moment when many woke up to the possibility that Ossoff is a Democratic bad-ass and therefore worthy as a standard-bearer. Perdue canceled a follow-up debate.

 

I wrote about Raphael Warnock back in August. I was impressed with his introductory video, and he clearly has the personal magnetism to move voters:

Georgia Republican David Perdue Should Not Have Shown Up Wednesday Night

 

I was unenthusiastic about Democrat Jon Ossoff's decision to take on incumbent Republican Senator David Perdue in Georgia. Ossoff had run unsuccessfully in 2017 in a special election in Georgia's 6th Congressional District. He lost, even though he raised a metric ton of money. I began to think he was a focus-group candidate, created in a backroom by campaign consultants, groomed because he checked a bunch of boxes for electability but lacked a core belief system that could energize a Democratic base.

I take it all back. Ossoff obliterated Perdue in a televised debate on Wednesday night, a take-down so savage (when have you ever seen a candidate call another candidate a "crook" to his face?) that Perdue has dropped out of the last debate with Ossoff which was supposed to be on Sunday night and which was agreed to back in September.

Here's a clip, but there was much more dismantling beyond this (and have you ever seen a better impersonation of that proverbial deer in the headlights than Perdue?):

How Big the Blue Wave in the US Senate 2020?

We're about to have some political accountability delivered to the party holding the White House and strangling the Senate. Maybe a ton of accountability for the incompetence and malfeasance that allowed the coronavirus pandemic to kill 200K (and still climbing).

Here's the list of vulnerable, incumbent Republican senators who could, according to polling and the surge of new voters who haven't always voted in the past, lose their seats on November 3rd. All of their losing would constitute a Democratic blow-out and give the Dems at least a 57-43 advantage.

They're listed here in the order of their vulnerability:

Arizona -- Incumbent Republican Sen. Martha McSally is well behind her Democratic rival, Mark Kelly, whom we headlined here back in July of this year. Cook's moved the race to "Lean Democrat."

Colorado -- Incumbent Republican Sen. Cory Gardner felt the earth move (not in a good way) when Cook moved this race to "Lean Democrat." The Democrat in question, former Governor John Hickenlooper, seems to have this sewn up. (We profiled him back in January of 2019.)

Maine -- Incumbent Republican Sen. Susan Collins has been pretty consistently trailing her Democratic rival Sara Gideon (pictured on the right). (We profiled her back before she won the Democratic primary.) Cook's rates the race a "Toss Up."

North Carolina -- Incumbent Republican Sen. Thom Tillis has been in a polling hole all year, with Democrat Cal Cunningham coming on strong and raising big money. We've profiled Cunningham many times, going back to late November 2018; June of 2019; September 2019 ("The Danger of Democratic McCreadyism"); and June 2020. Then came the trysting texts with a woman not his wife indicating a lapse of judgment. So who the hell knows where this race stands at the moment? Prior to the texting scandal, Cook's rated the race a "Toss Up."

Montana -- Republican incumbent Sen. Steve Daines is up against Democratic Governor Steve Bullock (really up against it!) in a race that moved to "Toss Up" as soon as Bullock declared his candidacy (on the last filing day). I haven't profiled Bullock at all, but he's a "moderate."

Iowa -- Incumbent Republican Sen. Joni Ernst woke up one morning and discovered that she's in real peril from the surging campaign of Democrat Theresa Greenfield (whom we profiled first in August 2019 because of her excellent introductory video; then a second time this past June). Cook's rates it "Toss Up."

Georgia -- Surprisingly, incumbent Republican Sen. David "Sonny" Perdue has also found himself in a "Toss Up" with Democrat Jon Ossoff, in whom I have little faith after he lost the special election for a Georgia US House seat in 2017. Ossoff sometimes comes off like a candidate created in a laboratory. 

Georgia -- Georgia has the unique distinction of being primed to replace both of their incumbent Republican senators. This second race is really a "jungle primary" to replace the retired Johnny Isakson. The run-off between the two top finishers on November 3rd will take place on January 5, 2021. Incumbent Republican Sen. Kelly Loeffler (appointed by the governor to fill out Isakson's term) has both a strong Republican rival in Congressman Doug Collins and a credible Democratic challenger in Rev. Raphael Warnock, whom we profiled on August 20th. Almost unbelieveably (it's freakin' Georgia, y'all!), Warnock has been leading both Republicans in some polling. Cook's rates the race "Lean Republican," though we're willing to believe in miracles.

South Carolina -- Incumbent Republican Sen. Lindsey O. Graham is having his own fright-night, threatened by another black candidate, Democrat Jaime Harrison (whom we profiled here). Cook moved the race from "Of Course Lindsey Graham Will Win Reelection" to "Lean Republican," to show just how squishy Graham's support has become. He won't be missed.

Kansas -- It's an open seat following the retirement of Republican Sen. Pat Roberts. Democrat Barbara Bollier (who was a registered Republican until December 2018) is facing Republican Roger Marshall. Looks like the polling has veered all over the place, so who knows? Cook's rates it "Lean Republican." But there have been signs (the flipping of CD 3 by Democrat Sharice Davids in 2018) that previously set-in-Republican-concrete Kansas is loosening up.

Alaska -- Incumbent Republican Sen. Dan Sullivan is being challenged not by a Democrat but by an independent, orthopedic surgeon Al Gross, who'd likely caucus with the Democrats. The most recent polling I've seen has Sullivan at 46% and Gross at 45%, and Alaska has past history of electing independents over nominal Republicans (Lisa Murkowski). Cook's still has the race at "Likely Republican."

Texas -- Incumbent Republican Sen. John Cornyn was once upon a time considered pretty vulnerable to a strong Democratic candidate in a watershed year like 2020 is likely to be, but is Democratic challenger M.J. Hegar that candidate? Dunno. I loved her fighting spirit when she ran for the US House against an entrenched Republican incumbent in 2018, but she went through a debilitating Democratic primary to cement her spot in this fight, and I'm hearing a lot of poor-mouthing from friends in Texas. Cook's rates it "Likely Republican," which seems about right.

Mississippi -- Incumbent Republican Cindy Hyde-Smith suddenly has a race on her hands from Democrat Mike Espy, who has surged in recent polling to 40% to Hyde-Smith's 41% (still a lot of undecideds). Espy was formerly Mississippi's first black congressman since Reconstruction and Secretary of Agriculture under President Bill Clinton. He is currently and since 2008 an attorney with the mega-firm Morgan and Morgan in Jackson, Miss., and also runs his own consulting firm specializing in governmental relations, rural development, food and nutrition, and international agricultural development issues. Cook's is not sanguine about Espy's chances; they rate it "Solid Republican." But would it not be something beyond imagining if Black Democrats in Georgia (Warnock), South Carolina (Harrison), and Mississippi (Espy) took out Republican incumbents in a truly massive Blue Wave?

 

Below: Mike Espy in Mississippi. Does he really have a shot at taking out an incumbent Republican senator: 

Don't Do It, Jon, Or If You Do It, Do It Better

Photo: Dustin Chambers, Ossoff for Congress

Maybe you'll recall Georgia insurgent Democrat Jon Ossoff who ran the most expensive US House election ever (up to that time) for the 6th Congressional District seat in 2017. We gave him space here in March 2017. It was a special election for a vacant seat and the first of what would become a series of special elections in which Democrats won what should have been very Red seats. But Ossoff ended up losing to Republican Karen Handel by a fairly narrow margin. Karen Handel went on to lose her so recently gained seat to Democrat Lucy McBath in November 2018.

Maybe there was a lesson in that: Lucy McBath was a bold progressive, making gun control her signal issue. Jon Ossoff had, by contrast, run a "Republican lite" campaign in 2017. Said a decidedly more-progressive-observer-than-Ossoff, “He didn’t have a core progressive message and that ultimately is why he lost. The Democratic party could spend $100m and he would still lose. Because he didn’t stand for anything."

Democrats have empty suits the same as Republicans.

Now news reaches us this morning that Ossoff is seriously considering a run for the Georgia Senate seat that Johnny Isakson is resigning from.

Oof. What went wrong in 2017 for Ossoff might just as likely go wrong in 2020, but on a bigger scale.

I Feel Good, Part 3

Look at just one of the quality candidates who are right now standing up to run for Congress next year.

Randy Bryce is a Wisconsin ironworker who's challenging House Speaker Paul Ryan. This is his campaign announcement video:


Some Democrats have complained that Jon Ossoff (of George-6 losing fame) was not sufficiently of the 6th district. They won't be saying that about Randy Bryce.

And maybe Paul Ryan is as unbeatable as Karen Handel proved to be. I don't care. Maybe Bryce's prior unsuccessful attempts to win office will also sink him this time. I don't care. I'm proud of the man who stands up for workers against what the Republicans are hatching at this very hour to deny health insurance to millions.

I'm proud of the man who made that video.

I Feel Good, Part 2

Numbers from Tuesday:

Karen Handel defeated Jon Ossoff in the Georgia 6th District by about 10,000 votes and nearly four percentage points. Republican "outside groups" spent $18 million smearing Ossoff as Pelosi's puppet and defending a congressional district where Republican candidates have won easily for decades. Eighteen million bucks for a 10,000-vote margin.

Also on Tuesday, an "obscure Democrat,"Archie Parnell, came within 3,000 votes of capturing a solidly Republican congressional district in South Carolina. Few observers expected that showing, and fourteen Democratic male babies born on Wednesday morning were promptly named Archie. And two female babies.

Nick Everhart, a Republican strategist in Ohio, warned fellow Republicans against chest-thumping and the complacency which often follows ego inflation. He reminded fellow Republicans that up to this point -- after just four special elections -- Republicans have been beating Democrats "only on solidly red turf."

“To pretend that there are not serious enthusiasm-gap issues with the G.O.P. base and, more crucially, independents fleeing, is missing the lessons that need to be learned before truly competitive seats are on the board,” Everhart said.

I Feel Good About the Special Congressional Elections

I've seen enough of fellow Dems beating up on the usual suspects for Ossoff's loss last night in the 6th District of Georgia ... blaming Bernie Sanders, Nancy Pelosi, Hillary Clinton herownself, and of course the young whippersnapper Jon Ossoff (whose greatest sin, other than all that money, IMO, was living outside the district). But enough of all that blame.

I feel good about the four special elections we've recently witnessed ... in Kansas, Montana, Georgia, and (also last night) in South Carolina for Mick Mulvaney's vacated seat (Archie Parnell did great, coming much closer than Ossoff in the most dismally Republican district you could ever deliberately draw).

All four Democrats lost, yes, but they lost in congressional districts the like of which Democrats will not have to win in 2018 to take back the House. Those four safe Republican districts -- and dozens of others like them -- will not have to be fought in and successfully challenged for Nancy Pelosi to become Speaker of the House again (and, yes, I wish for someone new in that role).

The closeness of those four races, with previously unknown Democratic candidates coming closer than any Democrat in years -- decades, in some cases -- provides a trend line that might sober up all the Trumpettes who've been celebrating Karen Handel's win in Georgia like it totally settles the issue of Trump's drain on the Republican Party.

But puff pastry gotta puff, forgetting how wholly fragile that particular baked good tends to be.

Sobering Thoughts, But Then I'm Not the One Drunk with Power

About that Kansas special election Tuesday night, and the shifting of votes:

Republican Mike Pompeo last won that district in 2016 by 30 points.
Republican Ron Estes won it Tuesday night by 7.

Yikes. That's a 23-point diminution of fortune.

Some people good at math applied that sudden reversal to all the House races of a few months ago, which would have given us a Democratic majority in the U.S. Congress. If the trend continues into 2018, and if Trump remains a pinball caroming off every electric bumper, then his mid-term congressional elections could be the whirlwind that rips the sheet.

We will know better if it's a trend after next Tuesday's special election in Georgia.

All Eyes on the 6th District of Georgia

Photo: Dustin Chambers/Jon Ossoff for Congress

Special election to fill Tom Price's old congressional seat, the 6th District of Georgia -- which was also Newt Gingrich's old seat -- has already begun with early voting.

Trump's unpopularity among suburban, Republican-leaning voters has fueled expectations for Democrat Jon Ossoff, a former congressional staffer who's never run for nor held elective office. But he's now a proven money-raiser ... some $3 million at last count.

It's a "jungle primary," with candidates from both parties -- some 11 Republicans alone -- running altogether at the same time to make it to the all-important run-off. Top two finishers on April 18 will face off head-to-head. One might have thought it would be two Republicans in this cherry-red district of affluent suburbanites, but Ossoff is considered not only competitive in the primary but also in the run-off.

A bridge too far? Maybe. Maybe not. We'll soon find out just how powerful the Trump backlash will be in 2018.

According to Richard Fausset and Jennifer Steinhauer,

The outcome of the election here may provide clues to how Mr. Trump’s presidency might, or might not, be deployed in local races. That is particularly true in wealthy suburban districts where Mr. Trump did not fare particularly well in November — and where Republicans may be especially vulnerable in 2018.