Sunday, October 13, 2019

What Democrat Will Step Forward To Run for NC Senate District 31?

Democrat John Motsinger challenged incumbent Republican state Senator Joyce Krawiec in 2018 for the NC Senate District 31 seat, which includes part of Forsyth and all of Davie counties. Krawiec buried Motsinger in that election, beating him by 20,000 votes. But the district has been redrawn under court order. It still includes all of Davie County -- one of the most dependably Republican counties in North Carolina -- but its portion of Forsyth has been seriously realigned, eliminating all of the western Winston-Salem suburbs but including more of the Winston-Salem urban core. This new map has yet to receive judicial approval.

I noticed on Facebook that John Motsinger announced on September 25 that he would not be running for that Senate seat again -- he is incidentally the son of Forsyth County School Board member Elisabeth Motsinger, she who also ran against Virginia Foxx for Congress in 2012 -- but that he knows of "a few people who have expressed an interest" in running next year. With the opening of candidate filing approaching rapidly -- the first week in December -- we're mightily interested in seeing a strong Democrat step into that race.

Michael Bitzer recently listed the new map as "Competitive, Republican Favored," perhaps because Republicans lost some 8.4% of its predicted vote share in the remapping. And Real Facts NC also recently named the 31st Senate District as a 2020 race to watch.

I'm watching, avidly, to see what characters may enter, stage left. The flipping of the entire NC Senate to Democrat has always seemed like a bridge too far, but with the volatility of impeachment drama and the breeding bughouse in Mugstomp-on-the-Potomac, just about anything can happen. And if other more informed commentators say the 31st Senate District is flippable, who am I to suggest otherwise?

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