We Doubt Billy Graham's Extended Family Gets Together for Thanksgiving

 

Jerushah Duford, the granddaughter of Billy Graham and the niece of Franklin Graham, has come out strong for Joe Biden. In fact, her outspokenness, she explained, has been prompted by Uncle Franklin's slavish Trump-enabling.

The first sign of her split with Franklin actually came in late August in an op-ed she wrote for USA Today: “I have spent my entire life in the church, with every big decision guided by my faith. But now, I feel homeless. Like so many others, I feel disoriented as I watch the church I have always served turn their eyes away from everything it teaches .... Jesus said repeatedly to defend the poor and show kindness and compassion to those in need. Our president continues to perpetuate an us-versus-them narrative, yet almost all of our church leaders say nothing.”

Duford told Newsweek that Uncle Franklin's cheerleading for Trump “was a large reason for my speaking out.”

Just two days ago Duford was one of some 1,600 "faith leaders" who signed a letter endorsing Joe Biden for president. “Four years ago, many religious voters decided to look the other way and give Trump a chance, but after witnessing his cruelty and corruption, a growing number of them are turning away from the president,” said Doug Pagitt, executive director of the Christian campaign organization Vote Common Good, which compiled the endorsements.

Footnote: Jerushah is, of course, an Old Testament name. She was the daughter of a high priest in the reign of King David, married King Uzziah, and gave birth to King Jotham. I wouldn't mess with her, if I were you.

Puh-leze, Just Make It Stop!

 

Just in the recent past:

1. Trump rampaged through the 1st Presidential Debate, effectively signaling to his supporters -- "It's the election itself that is the threat to my power."

2. WASHINGTON — President Trump forced the State Department on Friday to commit to releasing at least some of Hillary Clinton’s emails before next month’s election, resurrecting a four-year-old issue in hopes that it would prove as helpful to his political prospects as it was when he defeated her in 2016. “We’ve got the emails,” SecState Mike Pompeo said. “We’re getting them out. We’re going to get all this information out so the American people can see it.” Neither Trump nor Pompeo explained why they would release the emails now, in the final weeks of a hotly contested presidential campaign, given that they could have done so at any point in the past four years.

FOOTNOTE: After careful consideration, I have made up my mind not to vote for Hillary Clinton in 2020.

3. Still recovering from his own coronavirus infection, Trump made plans to host hundreds of supporters on the South Lawn of the White House today for his first in-person event since he tested positive last week. The continued exploitation of national buildings/monuments for Trump's personal political benefit shocks the conscience. Trump will never pay a usage fee to the US Treasury for such exploitation.

4. The president appeared intent yesterday on creating an October surprise more to his liking (because the last one didn't work), in this case tarring Democrats by using the instruments of government power at his disposal. He publicly badgered A.G. William Barr: “Unless Bill Barr indicts these people [you know who he's talking about] for crimes, the greatest political crime in the history of our country, then we’re going to get little satisfaction unless I win and we’ll just have to go, because I won’t forget it,” he announced on Fox News, in what would constitute a presidency-destroying impeachable offense if any normal president had uttered it. “But these people should be indicted. This was the greatest political crime in the history of our country, and that includes Obama and it includes Biden.”

5. About John Ratliff, the former Texas congressman who now oversees Trump's secret services, and his very recent selective declassification of one-sided, unverified, and suspect raw intelligence: “He is doing exactly what the administration brought him in to do as [Director of National Intelligence],” said Joseph Maguire, whom Mr. Trump dismissed as acting director of national intelligence in February. Releasing raw intelligence is pure partisanship and a clumsy attempt to smear Hillary Clinton all over again.

6. The president has increasingly declared that the only way he could lose is if the election is rigged and therefore he can refuse a peaceful transfer of power because a loss would be a fraud. Simultaneously, Trump has sent implicit and explicit messages to far-right groups and random Trump supporters (the ones with a lot of guns who want to swagger around with them) to "watch" polling sites (intimidate voters). He famously told the Proud Boys, a far-right extremist group, to "Stand back and stand by.” Other Trump functionaries are well disposed to carry out voter suppression where they can: One Trump campaign official recently emailed party officials in North Carolina and told them “to not follow the procedures outlined” in a memo sent out by the state Board of Elections.

7. Thirteen people were charged Thursday in an alleged domestic terrorism plot to kidnap Michigan Democratic Gov. Gretchen Whitmer. The scheme included plans to overthrow several state governments that the suspects “believe are violating the US Constitution,” including the government of Michigan and Whitmer. How did Trump throw gasoline on this smoldering ember? Like this: “Governor Whitmer of Michigan has done a terrible job. She locked down her state for everyone, except her husband’s boating activities,” Donald Trump thundered on Twitter shortly after Whitmer appeared on CNN, where host Chris Cuomo took aim at his rhetoric for inflaming her would-be killers.

"Pro-Life" Seniors May Not Want to Line Up for Trump's COVID "Cure"

 

The ironies for self-described pro-life conservatives Trumpists just continue to pile up:

...the treatment for Covid-19 received by Mr. Trump — a cocktail of monoclonal antibodies he described as a “cure” in a celebratory video posted on Twitter — was developed using human cells derived from a fetus aborted decades ago." [New York Times]

The Trump administration suspended federal funding in 2019 for most new scientific research projects involving fetal tissue derived from abortions. But now Trump is promising aborted fetal tissue free to all "seniors" who catch the noval coronavirus. “To my favorite people in the world, the seniors,” he said in a video. “I’m a senior. I know you don’t know that. Nobody knows that. Maybe you don’t have to tell them. But I’m a senior.” (Not making this up. How could any fabulist make up such narcissistic blather?)

Acknowledging that he had been “very sick,” Trump praised the experimental treatments he was given for the virus and vowed to provide them to seniors. “I want you to get the same care that I got,” he said. “You’re going to get the same medicine. You’re going to get it free, no charge, and we’re going to get it to you soon.”

The Essence of Mike Pence

 

Four Eggers (Likely) To Be on the State Board of Elections Again

 

Governor Roy Cooper's first choice for a vacated Republican seat on the State Board of Elections -- James Carlton "Carr" McLamb Jr. -- dissolved into an oily mist last night:

No reason was given for the swift about-face on the appointment, but in a statement, McLamb alluded to abuse allegations made against him.

"These anonymous allegations were launched against my character just hours after I was appointed to a partisan role that could have national implications," he said. "As a general rule, I do not respond to anonymous attacks, but let me be very clear, I never assaulted anyone or forced anyone into unwanted actions. I’m fortunate to have dated smart, successful women, and all of my relationships have helped to make me a better person." [Matthew Burns]

That left two other names nominated by the NCGOP: Stacy C. Eggers IV of Boone fame and Jeannette Doran, president and general counsel of the North Carolina Institute for Constitutional Law in Raleigh. Smart money says it will be Four who'll now become one of two Republican obstructionists on a board dominated by Democrats.

 

All Eyes on These Democrats in NC's "Bellwether County," New Hanover

 

In 2016 Watauga County was designated a "bellwether county" -- one of ten across the nation in that year's battleground states -- because Watauga's political history suggested we more often than not voted for the eventual winner of the presidential race. D'oh. We lost our status in 2016 because Watauga went roguishly for Hillary instead of for the winner, Twitterman. 

So much for an alpha sheep decked with a bell who leads the other sheep.

But we're delighted to see New Hanover County listed again as a bellwether county. Not its first time. The Associated Press named it a bellwether in 2016, along with Watauga: "New Hanover County was chosen because Republicans and Democrats are split almost evenly in Wilmington and the surrounding area, and the number of independents registered here has risen so much since the last presidential election that they now outnumber both parties."

Now for 2020, New Hanover gets the honor again in a list compiled by Dave Wasserman, House editor at the Cook Political Report. The New York Times published it as "opinion," and it's pretty damn interesting. Haven't investigated all the other counties on the new list -- I'll get around to them -- but New Hanover rises in the east today like the sun, and I can't take any more light at the moment. Several men and women from New Hanover, either already in the General Assembly (some flipped their seats in 2018), or are trying to get there, fill my eyeballs today -- the potential and the odds for Democrats' taking back the General Assembly in 2020. 

Here's a primer:

NC House Districts

Dist. 18 -- Deb Butler (incumbent Democrat), one of the most famous progressive warriors in the General Assembly, challenged by Republican Warren Kennedy. Bitzer rates the district "Safe Democratic."

 

Dist. 19 (only part of New Hanover, with a larger slice of New Brunswick to the south-- problematic for a Democratic win minus a Blue Wave) -- Open seat. Democrat Marcia Morgan is being challenged by Republican Charlie Miller. Quoting myself from January of this year:

Morgan is a 74-year-old Baby Boomer born in 1946. She was an educator, became a career Army officer who retired as a colonel. She taught ROTC and did two tours at the Pentagon including a staff position with the Army Chief of Staff. She says, "I have thoroughly enjoyed retirement and the freedom to do as I please, but the current political environment has challenged me to step forward once again. I do not have a background in politics, but I DO have a strong sense of service to this community and a demonstrated ability to accomplish difficult tasks. I believe we have a commitment to improve our economy, provide equal opportunities for all and protect our environment – and one of the fundamental ways to accomplish those things is through quality education." She details her career, which took her all over the world for the Army, on her website.

Morgan has been endorsed by Lillian's List. She came within 883 votes of beating Ted Davis in 2018 in the old District 19. The last fundraising report I've seen suggested a good effort on her part for 2020.

 

 

Dist. 20 -- Ted Davis, incumbent Republican, formerly in the 19th but drawn out of that district and into Holly Grange's district. The double-bunking of incumbent Republicans was certainly part of Holly Grange's decision to opt out of reelection and run for governor against Dan Forest instead (a remarkably empty gesture in today's NCGOP). Democrat Adam Ericson, a public high school teacher, is challenging Davis. FlipNC.org analysis of the prospect: "Gov. Cooper lost the newly constituted NC-H20 by just 5 points in 2016, and the NC House race was just as close in 2018. The pool of left-leaning voters who stayed home in NC-H20 in 2018 was about 14 points more left-leaning than the folks who came out to the polls, and the great news is that 2020 primary turnout was up 30% over 2016!"

 

NC Senate

Dist. 9 -- Harper Peterson (incumbent Democrat: elected 2018), challenged by Republican attorney Mike Lee. Rated a "Toss Up" by Bitzer. Peterson beat Lee in 2018, so this is a rematch. Fundraising on both sides has been eye-popping, though Lee was edging Peterson slightly in the $$ race the last time I looked. Peterson is a former mayor of Wilmington and has been very visible in the controversy surrounding the pollution of the Cape Fear River.

 

U.S. House

Dist. 7 -- David Rouzer, incumbent Republican, challenged by Democrat Christopher Ward. Considered a safe Republican district because of all that rural real estate north of Wilmington, Republican counties stretching all the way to Johnston County just south of Wake.

https://www.chriswardforcongress.com

Al Gross of Alaska, The Left-Leaning Independent Who Killed a Grizzly

Some liberals are going to hate this photo because of its echoes of the Trump progeny posing with large African trophies. Photo ops with large dead animals that were killed for sport have become anathema in many quarters. But in this Alaskan case, candidate for US Senate Al Gross shot the bear in self defense. It was charging him and another hunter in an apparent ambush attack. Which produced an Alaska Department of Public Safety investigation and report.

I felt the need to know more about Al Gross after The Cook Report moved the race from "Solid Republican" to "Likely Republican," and national media began to pay attention to the left-leaning independent whose current polling suggests the possibility of a sleeper win in one of the most Republican states in the Union. Gross is running against one-term Republican Dan Sullivan, who's a transplant from Ohio and who has failed to establish much of a profile through his six years in office (except that he's a loyal Trumpist).

Who Is Al Gross?

He grew up in a Democratic household. His father, Avrum Gross, was the Democratic Attorney General of Alaska and is still remembered apparently as one of the best. At the age of 14, Al bought himself a commercial fishing boat and went whole-hog into commercial fishing through his teens and into his 20s, earning himself the bankroll that it cost to put himself through college and then medical school. He became an orthopedic surgeon, married a pediatric doctor, and opened his practice in Juneau.

Here's his introductory video biography:

After almost 20 years in private practice, Al and his wife, "discouraged by how high health care costs were affecting Alaskan individuals, small businesses, and the Alaskan economy in general," took the unusual step of closing their practices to return to school for degrees in public health. Al has subsequently become an advocate for a public healthcare option to give Alaskans the choice to buy less expensive insurance through the healthcare exchange. He's also been an outspoken critic of the Trump administration's mishandling of the coronavirus epidemic.

I've been studying Al Gross's platform on his campaign website, and I find nothing that a registered progressive Democrat wouldn't agree with. Why he isn't running as a Democrat is explained by the demographics of "a little bit weird" Alaska: "Of its 585,000 registered voters, 58 percent are listed as 'nonpartisan' or 'undeclared.' Twenty-four percent, meanwhile, are registered Republicans, and only 13 percent are registered Democrats. Deep-red Wyoming has more Democrats...."

There's also an independent, Alyse Galvin, running for Alaska's single seat in the US House against long-time incumbent Republican Don Young, and she's doing quite well in polling. Al Gross and Alyse Galvin together present an enticing prospect of a major shift in Alaska, if the Blue Wave crashes with tsunami strength.

How Big the Blue Wave in the US Senate 2020?

We're about to have some political accountability delivered to the party holding the White House and strangling the Senate. Maybe a ton of accountability for the incompetence and malfeasance that allowed the coronavirus pandemic to kill 200K (and still climbing).

Here's the list of vulnerable, incumbent Republican senators who could, according to polling and the surge of new voters who haven't always voted in the past, lose their seats on November 3rd. All of their losing would constitute a Democratic blow-out and give the Dems at least a 57-43 advantage.

They're listed here in the order of their vulnerability:

Arizona -- Incumbent Republican Sen. Martha McSally is well behind her Democratic rival, Mark Kelly, whom we headlined here back in July of this year. Cook's moved the race to "Lean Democrat."

Colorado -- Incumbent Republican Sen. Cory Gardner felt the earth move (not in a good way) when Cook moved this race to "Lean Democrat." The Democrat in question, former Governor John Hickenlooper, seems to have this sewn up. (We profiled him back in January of 2019.)

Maine -- Incumbent Republican Sen. Susan Collins has been pretty consistently trailing her Democratic rival Sara Gideon (pictured on the right). (We profiled her back before she won the Democratic primary.) Cook's rates the race a "Toss Up."

North Carolina -- Incumbent Republican Sen. Thom Tillis has been in a polling hole all year, with Democrat Cal Cunningham coming on strong and raising big money. We've profiled Cunningham many times, going back to late November 2018; June of 2019; September 2019 ("The Danger of Democratic McCreadyism"); and June 2020. Then came the trysting texts with a woman not his wife indicating a lapse of judgment. So who the hell knows where this race stands at the moment? Prior to the texting scandal, Cook's rated the race a "Toss Up."

Montana -- Republican incumbent Sen. Steve Daines is up against Democratic Governor Steve Bullock (really up against it!) in a race that moved to "Toss Up" as soon as Bullock declared his candidacy (on the last filing day). I haven't profiled Bullock at all, but he's a "moderate."

Iowa -- Incumbent Republican Sen. Joni Ernst woke up one morning and discovered that she's in real peril from the surging campaign of Democrat Theresa Greenfield (whom we profiled first in August 2019 because of her excellent introductory video; then a second time this past June). Cook's rates it "Toss Up."

Georgia -- Surprisingly, incumbent Republican Sen. David "Sonny" Perdue has also found himself in a "Toss Up" with Democrat Jon Ossoff, in whom I have little faith after he lost the special election for a Georgia US House seat in 2017. Ossoff sometimes comes off like a candidate created in a laboratory. 

Georgia -- Georgia has the unique distinction of being primed to replace both of their incumbent Republican senators. This second race is really a "jungle primary" to replace the retired Johnny Isakson. The run-off between the two top finishers on November 3rd will take place on January 5, 2021. Incumbent Republican Sen. Kelly Loeffler (appointed by the governor to fill out Isakson's term) has both a strong Republican rival in Congressman Doug Collins and a credible Democratic challenger in Rev. Raphael Warnock, whom we profiled on August 20th. Almost unbelieveably (it's freakin' Georgia, y'all!), Warnock has been leading both Republicans in some polling. Cook's rates the race "Lean Republican," though we're willing to believe in miracles.

South Carolina -- Incumbent Republican Sen. Lindsey O. Graham is having his own fright-night, threatened by another black candidate, Democrat Jaime Harrison (whom we profiled here). Cook moved the race from "Of Course Lindsey Graham Will Win Reelection" to "Lean Republican," to show just how squishy Graham's support has become. He won't be missed.

Kansas -- It's an open seat following the retirement of Republican Sen. Pat Roberts. Democrat Barbara Bollier (who was a registered Republican until December 2018) is facing Republican Roger Marshall. Looks like the polling has veered all over the place, so who knows? Cook's rates it "Lean Republican." But there have been signs (the flipping of CD 3 by Democrat Sharice Davids in 2018) that previously set-in-Republican-concrete Kansas is loosening up.

Alaska -- Incumbent Republican Sen. Dan Sullivan is being challenged not by a Democrat but by an independent, orthopedic surgeon Al Gross, who'd likely caucus with the Democrats. The most recent polling I've seen has Sullivan at 46% and Gross at 45%, and Alaska has past history of electing independents over nominal Republicans (Lisa Murkowski). Cook's still has the race at "Likely Republican."

Texas -- Incumbent Republican Sen. John Cornyn was once upon a time considered pretty vulnerable to a strong Democratic candidate in a watershed year like 2020 is likely to be, but is Democratic challenger M.J. Hegar that candidate? Dunno. I loved her fighting spirit when she ran for the US House against an entrenched Republican incumbent in 2018, but she went through a debilitating Democratic primary to cement her spot in this fight, and I'm hearing a lot of poor-mouthing from friends in Texas. Cook's rates it "Likely Republican," which seems about right.

Mississippi -- Incumbent Republican Cindy Hyde-Smith suddenly has a race on her hands from Democrat Mike Espy, who has surged in recent polling to 40% to Hyde-Smith's 41% (still a lot of undecideds). Espy was formerly Mississippi's first black congressman since Reconstruction and Secretary of Agriculture under President Bill Clinton. He is currently and since 2008 an attorney with the mega-firm Morgan and Morgan in Jackson, Miss., and also runs his own consulting firm specializing in governmental relations, rural development, food and nutrition, and international agricultural development issues. Cook's is not sanguine about Espy's chances; they rate it "Solid Republican." But would it not be something beyond imagining if Black Democrats in Georgia (Warnock), South Carolina (Harrison), and Mississippi (Espy) took out Republican incumbents in a truly massive Blue Wave?

 

Below: Mike Espy in Mississippi. Does he really have a shot at taking out an incumbent Republican senator: 

Oh, For Pete's Sake, Cal!

 

The "new right" website National File got hold of a text chain between Senate candidate Cal Cunningham and a married woman in California with whom he's been having some sort of consensual affair, and they headlined it -- "EXCLUSIVE" -- as though it was Bill-Clinton-level sex. The News and Observer amplified that news this morning. It's not Bill-Clinton-level. It's more like high school confidential. 

But ... shittal! The stupidity frosts my berries. And as a politico, I don't want to see this kind of personal, private crap this close to an election, especially one that Cal is supposed to win. May still win, because after all ... so what? Consensual, private. Yes, a breach of trust and some ripe dumb shit, as Cal the candidate immediately copped to in a press statement last night: 

“I have hurt my family, disappointed my friends, and am deeply sorry. The first step in repairing those relationships is taking complete responsibility, which I do.”

So ... facepalm time, and a nagging dread of voter backlash. What are the odds on Cal's still winning the Senate seat? Depends on whether suburban women decide to make an example of him. He betrayed his wife. But his embarrassing text messages aren't comparable to a Bill Clinton sexcapade, or even a Newt Gingrich affair. Clinton smelled of predation, Gingrich of neediness. As far as Cal's adultery, it looks more like coltish hormones set at liberty in a pasture where other coltish hormones also roam. Her texts are even more romantically aggressive. So it was mutual lust. Is lust a killing offense?

Betrayal is not the last and only word about Cal Cunningham. He has other solid human qualities. Also strategic political importance. His ascent as a 2020 candidate, along with the math of the US Senate, makes him an essential player in the restoration of the Republic. This scandal does not IMO negate the key strategery of his vote in the Senate. Which means, O my brethren, he is weighed in the balance and found adequate. 

Full disclosure: I contributed to his campaign, and I've already voted for him and would do so again.