Sunday, December 22, 2019

March 2020 NC Senate Primaries -- Complete List

This is Part II on a complete rundown of NC General Assembly partisan primaries on North Carolina ballots on March 3rd, 2020.

NC Senate primaries in both Democratic and Republican parties on March 3. Some of these will not be serious contests; others will be. An * below indicates a district worth watching. I've accepted the electability ratings proposed by political scientist Michael Bitzer based on partisan registrations in the newly drawn General Assembly districts.

Dist. 6, Jones and Onslow -- Incumbent Republican Senator Harry Brown is retiring, and two Republicans want the seat: Bob Williams and Michael Lazzara. Winner will face Democrat Ike Johnson in November. Rated "Likely Republican."

*Dist. 7, Lenoir and Wayne -- Incumbent Republican Louis Pate resigned earlier in the year. Jim Perry was appointed to replace him and is in a primary with Billy Strickland. Winner will face Democrat Donna Lake. "Competitive -- Republican Favored."

*Dist. 11, Johnston and Nash -- Incumbent Republican Rick Horner is stepping down. Three Republicans want the seat: Patrick Harris, Lisa Stone Barnes, and Dennis Nielsen. Winner will face the winner of the Democratic primary: either Allen Wellons or Albert R. Pacer (who also ran in 2018). "Competitive -- Republican Favored."

*Dist. 18, Franklin and Wake -- Incumbent Republican John Alexander opted not to seek reelection because of redistricting. Two Democrats are running in this "Competitive -- Democratic Favored" district: Sarah Crawford and Angela Bridgman. Winner will face one of two Republicans: either Scott McKaig or Larry Norman. Also on the Nov. ballot: Libertarian Jason Loeback. 

*Dist. 20, Durham -- Because incumbent Democrat Floyd McKissick opted to take an appointed seat on the Utilities Commission, there's a scrum of Democrats running for this "Likely Democratic" seat: Pierce Freelon, Natalie Murdock, and Gray Ellis. Winner will face Republican John Tarantino in Nov.

Dist. 29, Davidson and Montgomery -- Incumbent Republican Eddie Gallimore must get past Steve Jarvis in March before encountering Democrat Duskin Lassiter next Fall. "Likely Republican."

Dist. 33, Rowan and Stanley -- Democrats Tarsha Ellis and Geoffrey Hoy competing to take on Republican incumbent Carl Ford next Nov. "Likely Republican."

*Dist. 38, Mecklenburg -- Democratic incumbent Mujtaba Mohammed (first elected last year) faces fellow Democrats Laura Anthony and Roderick Davis before facing Republican Jack Brosch next Nov. "Likely Democratic."

*Dist. 39, Mecklenburg -- Republican Dan Bishop's old district (he's now in the US House), heavily redistricted to become "Likely Democratic." DeAndrea Salvador and Darrell Bonapart are competing on the Democratic side. Winner will take on Republican Josh Niday in Nov.

*Dist. 48, Buncombe, Henderson, and Transylvania -- Three Democrats -- Brian Caskey, Najah Underwood, and Cristal Figueroa -- are competing to challenge incumbent Republican Chuck Edwards, who was appointed to the seat to replace Sen. Tom Apodaca. "Lean Republican."

*Dist. 49, Buncombe -- Incumbent Democrat Terry van Duyn is stepping down to run for Lt. Governor. Three Democrats are competing for the seat: Julie Mayfield, Travis Smith, and Ben Scales. Winner will face Republican Bob Penland in Nov. "Likely Democratic."

Dist. 50, Cherokee, Clay, Graham, Haywood, Jackson, Macon, and Swain -- Incumbent Republican Jim Davis announced his retirement (but may now be the favorite in the crowded Republican primary in the 11th CD). Competing to replace Davis are Republicans Kevin Corbin and Sarah Conway. The winner will face Democrat Victoria Fox and Libertarian Clifton Ingram next Nov. "Likely Republican."

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