Sunday, December 22, 2019

March 2020 NC House Primaries -- Complete List

Whole lotta primarying going on here!

Both Democratic and Republican NC House incumbents have primaries on March 3. Some of these will not be serious contests -- maybe most of them. An * indicates a district worth watching for a possible incumbent ouster or winners suggesting a possible flip next November. I've accepted the electability ratings proposed by political scientist Michael Bitzer based on partisan registrations in the newly drawn General Assembly districts.

NOTE: NC Senate primaries will be profiled in a subsequent post.

Dist. 3, Craven -- Arch conservative Mike Speciale is retiring, so there's a pile-up of Republicans who want to replace him: Jim Kohr, Steve Tyson, Guy Smith, and Eric Queen. Winner will face Democrat Dorothea White. Rated "Lean Republican."

*Dist. 5,Gates, Hertford, and Pasquotank-- Democratic incumbent Howard Hunter III (1st elected 2016) will face Keith Rivers, president of the Pasquotank chapter of the NAACP. Winner will face Republican Donald Kirland in this "Lean Democratic" district.

Dist. 6, Currituck, Dare, Hyde, and Pamlico -- Republican Bobby Hanig (elected 2018) will face Rob Rollason. Winner will face Democrat Tommy Fulcher in the general. Rated "Likely Republican."

*Dist. 9, Pitt -- Democrats Brian Farkas and Jake Hochard vie for the privilege of facing off against incumbent Republican Perrin Jones (appointed to the seat Sept. 2019). Rated "Competitive -- Lean Democratic."

*Dist. 12, Pitt and Lenoir -- Democrats Lenton Credelle Brown, Deonko Brewer, and Virginia Cox-Daugherty contend for the right to take on incumbent first-term Republican Chris Humphrey. Rated "Competitive -- Lean Republican."

Dist. 14, Onslow -- Republican incumbent George Cleveland (1st elected in 2004) will face Cindy Edwards. The winner will take on Democrat Marcy Wofford in November. Rated "Likely Republican."

Dist. 15, Onslow -- Republican incumbent Phil Shepard must get by Mark Price in this "Likely Republican" district to face Democrat Carolyn Gomaa in November.

*Dist. 19, Brunswick and New Hanover -- Open seat created by redistricting, so primaries on both sides. Republicans David A. Perry and Charlie Miller; Democrats Marcia Morgan (who also ran in 2018) and James Dawkins. Rated "Lean Republican."

Dist. 20, New Hanover -- Incumbent Republican Ted Davis Jr. (1st elected 2012) must get by Justin LaNasa before facing Democrat Adam Ericson. (We're surprised that Democrat Leslie Cohen decided not to run again.) Rated "Lean Republican."

*Dist. 21, Sampson and Wayne -- First-term incumbent Democrat Raymond Smith Jr. must face challenger Eugene Pearsall before encountering Republican Brent Heath. Rated "Lean Democratic."

Dist. 22, Bladen and Sampson -- Two Democrats, Albert Kirby and Martin "Tony" Denning, vie for the right to take on incumbent Republican Bill Brisson (1st elected 2006 as a conservative Democrat). Rated "Lean Republican."

Dist. 24, Wilson -- Incumbent Democrat Jean Farmer-Butterfield (1st elected 2002) faces John G. McNeil. Winner will go up against Republican Mick Rankin. Rated "Lean Democratic."

*Dist. 25, Nash -- Two Republicans, John Check and Steve A. Matthews, will struggle for the privilege of running against first-term incumbent Democrat James Gailliard. Also on November ballot: Libertarian Nick Taylor. Rated "Competitive -- Lean Democratic." 

Dist. 26, Johnston -- Republican incumbent Donna McDowell White must defeat challenger Justin Tate before facing Democrat Linda Bennett. Rated "Likely Republican."

Dist. 27, Halifax and Northampton -- Incumbent Democrat Michael H. Wray (1st elected 2004) faces two other Democrats -- Jerry McDaniel and Kelby Hicks. Winner will go up against Republican Warren Scott Nail. Rated "Likely Democratic."

Dist. 33, Wake -- Incumbent Democrat Rosa Gill (1st elected 2008) must overcome Antoine Marshall before facing Republican Frann Sarpolus next fall. Also on November ballot: Libertarian Sammy Brooks. Rated "Likely Democratic."

Dist. 35, Wake -- Two Republicans, Alma Peters and Fred Von Canon, compete for the right to run against incumbent first-term Democrat Terence Everitt. Also on Nov. ballot: Libertarian Michael Nelson. Rated "Competitive -- Lean Democratic."

Dist. 36, Wake -- Two Republicans, Kim Coley and Gil Pagan, compete to take on incumbent first-term Democrat Julie von Haefen. Also on Nov. ballot: Libertarian Bruce Basson. Rated "Competitive -- Lean Democratic."

*Dist. 37, Wake -- Three Republicans -- Erin Paré, Jeff Moore, and Anna Powell -- compete to take on first-term Democrat Sydney Batch. Also on Nov. ballot: Libertarian Liam Leaver. Rated "Competitive -- Lean Republican."

*Dist. 38, Wake -- Democratic incumbent Yvonne Holley is quitting to run for Lt. Gov. Two Democrats want her seat -- Quanta Monique Edwards and Abe Jones. Winner will take on Republican Kenneth Bagnal. Also on Nov. ballot: Libertarian Richard Haygood. Rated "Likely Democratic."

*Dist. 43, Cumberland -- Primaries on both sides. Democratic incumbent Elmer Floyd (1st elected 2008) faces Kimberly Hardy. The two Republicans -- Clarence Goins Jr. and Diane Wheatley. Used to be a heavily Democratic seat before the most recent redistricting. Now rated "Competitive -- Lean Republican."

Dist. 44, Cumberland -- Incumbent Democrat Billy Richardson (1st elected 2014) faces Terry Johnson. Winner will be up against Republican Heather Holmes. Rated "Likely Democratic."

*Dist. 45, Cumberland -- Two Democrats, Frances Vinell Jackson and Keith Byrd, want the right to oppose incumbent Republican John Szoka. After redistricting, rated "Competitive -- Lean Republican."

Dist. 52, Moore -- Republican incumbent James "Jamie" Boles Jr. (1st elected 2008) must overcome Bob Temme before facing Democrat Lowell Simon (who also ran for the seat in 2018). Rated "Likely Republican."

Dist. 53, Harnett -- Two Democrats, John C. Fitzpatrick Sr. and Sally Weeks Benson, compete for the opportunity to lose to incumbent Republican David Lewis. Also on Nov. ballot: Libertarian Zach Berly. Rated "Likely Republican."

*Dist. 56, Orange -- Incumbent Democrat Verla Insko (1st elected in 1996) must get by Joe Parrish and then there's no Republican opponent for November.

*Dist. 59, Guilford -- Incumbent Republican Jon Hardister faces Allen Chappell in March before going up against Democrat Nicole Quick in November. Rated "Competitive -- Lean Republican" after redistricting.

Dist. 60, Guilford -- Two Republicans, Frank Ragsdale and Ryan A
Blankenship, want the right to go up against Democratic incumbent Cecil Brockman. Rated "Likely Democratic."

Dist. 64, Alamance -- Incumbent Republican Dennis Riddell (first elected 2012) must get by Peter McClelland before facing Democrat Eric Henry next November. Rated "Lean Republican."

*Dist. 66,MontgomeryRichmond, and Stanly-- Two Republicans -- Ben Moss and Joey Davis -- are battling to take on incumbent Democrat Scott Brewer (appointed to the seat in May 2019). Rated "Lean Republican."

Dist. 71, Forsyth -- Incumbent Democrat Evelyn Terry (1st elected 2012) must get by Kanika Brown to sail home with no Repub opponent in November.

*Dist. 72, Forsyth -- Two Democrats, Amber Baker and Lashun Huntley, are running for this open seat. Former Democratic incumbent Derwin Montgomery withdrew to run for US Congress in the 6th CD. Primary winner will face Republican Dan Lawlor in November. Rated "Likely Democratic."

Dist. 75, Forsyth -- Incumbent Republican Donny Lambeth (first elected 2012) must shrug off fellow Republican Jacob Baum before facing the winner of the Democratic primary: perennial candidates Gardenia Henley and Elisabeth Motsinger. "Likely Republican."

*Dist. 80, Davidson -- Republican incumbent Steve Jarvis is stepping down to run for NC Senate. Three Republicans want the seat: Sam Watford, Haley Sink, and Roger Younts. Winner faces Democrat Wendy Sellars (who also ran in 2018). "Likely Republican."

*Dist. 82,  Cabarrus -- Long-serving Republican incumbent Linda Johnson is stepping down. Three Republicans want the seat: William G Hamby Jr., Parish Moffitt, and Kristin Baker. So do two Democrats: Aimy Steele (who previously ran in 2018) and William F. Pilkington. "Lean Republican."

*Dist. 83, Cabarrus and Rowan -- Bless his heart, incumbent Republican Larry Pitts (serving since 2011, when he was appointed to the Dist. 82 seat. After redistricting, was elected in Dist. 83). Pitts might pulverize fellow Republican Jay White before having a return match with Democrat Gail Young in Nov. She ran also in 2018. "Lean Republican."

*Dist. 93, Watauga and Ashe -- Incumbent first-term Democrat Ray Russell has a late-filing challenger, Turner Doolittle. Republican in the race: Ray Pickett, former town commissioner of Blowing Rock. "Lean Republican."

*Dist. 102, Mecklenburg -- Sumthin's in the water! Incumbent Democrat Becky Carney (first elected 2002) has three primary challengers: Leroy Dean, Jonathan Peebles, and Anthony E.
Forman. Also a Republican opponent in November: Kyle Kirby. "Likely Democratic."

*Dist. 117, Henderson -- Long-serving Republican incumbent Chuck McGrady is retiring. Fellow Republicans Tim Moffitt (previously served in the House 2010-2015) and Dennis Justice want the seat. So do Democrats Josh Remillard and Danae Aicher. "Likely Republican."

*Dist. 119, Haywood, Jackson, and Swain -- Incumbent Democrat Joe Sam Queen (previously served in the House; reelected to the seat in 2018) must wait to see which Republican he'll face next November -- either Mike Clampitt (who previously also held the seat) and Ron Mau.

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