Congressional Redistricting Claims a Democratic Casualty

The remapping of North Carolina's 2nd Congressional District threw incumbent Republican Congressman George Holding under the bus. Now it's also claimed the candidacy of a promising Democratic up-and-comer, Scott Cooper.

Retired Marine fighter pilot Cooper announced back in June that he would challenge George Holding in 2020 in what was then the 2nd CD. When the district was remapped to be contained within Wake County alone, and after former Senatorial candidate Deborah Ross announced that she would run, we speculated that maybe Cooper would choose to run in the 8th District rather than challenge Ross for the nomination and thus sap the strength of both candidates (which would be a crying shame).

Cooper announced this morning that he's suspending his campaign and won't be running in any CD in 2020. We hate to see him go and hope to see him return as a candidate for some public office in 2022.

It's a sign of the Trump times, isn't it, that Democrats have so many good and promising contenders? And chivalrous gentlemen, to boot.

George Holding in the NC2 Opts for Retirement Because of Redistricting

US Congressman George Holding's District 2 became Wake County and Wake County alone (greater Raleigh) in the most recent round of court-ordered redistricting. Whereas Holding was initially elected and reelected via very Republican-heavy mapping, he's suddenly been thrown into one of the most blue-trending counties in the state, with strong Democratic contenders for that congressional seat already either announcing or already well underway. Who said, "Discretion is the better part of valor"? Was it a fat man in armor? George Holding announced a couple of days ago that he wouldn't run in another adjacent district if it already had a Republican rep. So today he opted out entirely, said he's retiring from Congress.

There's already a potentially invigorating Democratic scrimmage for the seat. On Tuesday, Deborah Ross, the former Democratic candidate for the US Senate (she ran against Dick Burr in 2016 and got over 45% of the vote statewide), announced that she would seek the seat. She'll be formidable. But retired Marine "top gun" aviator Scott Cooper also looks strong, and he's been building a campaign against Holding since last year.

Shame to watch Cooper and Ross duke it out, so it's relieving to hear this morning that Cooper might be reconsidering, might jump over to the new 8th District, which runs south of Wake through Harnett, Cumberland, and Lee counties, then due west through Moore, Montgomery, Stanly, and Cabarrus. On the face of it, the new 8th looks considerably less friendly to Democrats, though an ex-Marine fighter pilot like Scott Cooper might be the man to change that. (For the record, the rumor of Cooper's maybe switching his campaign to the 8th might be nothing more than rumor. Cooper's Twitter feed certainly doesn't indicate anything other than "full throttle up" for the 2nd.)

In the environment we're currently occupying, every weather-front creates more weather. Democrat Scott Huffman has been running an energetic campaign already for months in the 8th against incumbent Republican Richard Hudson, and the forecast that Scott Cooper might move his campaign south could seem like a bad cold front blowing in (and I've exhausted the weather metaphor).

Lots of ferment since the court approved the new NC congressional districts for 2020. Sometimes it's just going to come down to the better candidate prevailing.

Democratic Scramble After New Congressional Maps Pass the NCGA

With the opening of candidate filing for 2020 just two weeks away, there's visible signs of potential Democratic candidates reevaluating their options:

Paul Lowe

6th Congressional District -- which is now remapped to be all of Guilford and the urban heart of Forsyth. We hear that state Senator Paul Lowe (32nd District) is seriously considering running for the seat. Lowe was appointed to the NC Senate in 2015 when Earline Parmon resigned, ran unopposed for reelection in 2016, and was reelected easily a second time in 2018. He is the pastor of Shiloh Baptist Church in Winston-Salem and a former Democratic chair of the 5th District. There will undoubtedly be others, especially in Guilford County, also considering a run for this much bluer congressional seat.






5th Congressional District -- Jeanne Supin announced months ago that she was building a campaign infrastructure to challenge Virginia Foxx. With Forsyth County now completely eliminated from the 5th, Supin appears to be shelving the effort. We're hearing that she's laid off her staff.

But with Gaston now drawn into the new 5th, David Wilson Brown, who has been running a campaign in the old 10th District (and he ran there against Patrick McHenry in 2018 too), is considering now running in the 5th.

David Wilson Brown

FOOTNOTE: We're hearing from multiple sources that both Virginia Foxx and Patrick McHenry are unamused by their redrawn districts, which would appear to advantage one Tim Moore for running in the 5th if and when Virginia Foxx retires. Tim Moore lives in Cleveland County, and there's consensus that the remapping was done for his future benefit.

10th Congressional District -- If David Wilson Brown moves over to run in the 5th, that will leave an opening for another Democrat to run against Patrick McHenry -- perhaps someone from Iredell.


11th Congressional District -- With all of Buncombe County and Asheville restored to this district, the campaign of Democrat Steve Woodsmall against the toxic Mark Meadows would appear to be considerably enhanced. Woodsmall has been energetically building out his campaign for months now, raising money, and negatively defining Meadows via social media.

2nd Congressional District -- Lt. Col. Scott Cooper, USMC (Retired), has already for several months been building a campaign against incumbent Republican George Holding. The new 2nd District is now based entirely in Wake County, and Cooper lives in northern Wake in the town of Wake Forest. I know that congressional candidates are not required to live in the districts they represent, but it sure does help when you're a first time candidate. Cooper would appear to have a headstart on taking this seat (though he will undoubtedly have a primary challenge).

NC House Has Passed Its Redistricted Map

The congressional redistricting map posted yesterday down-column is now the official NC House-voted (Republican) preference for remapping the state. It puts in peril two incumbent Republicans -- George Holding in the 2nd and Mark Walker in the 6th.

Waiting to see what the Republican NC Senate will vote out as their version, and especially waiting for number-crunchers like Mike Bitzer to dig deep into the data.

Another Democrat Vying To Unseat George Holding in NC-2

Jason Butler

We took notice back on June 13 of retired Marine Scott Cooper as the first Democrat to announce a campaign to unseat incumbent Republican George Holding in the 2nd Congressional District of North Carolina.

There's a new and interesting Democratic candidate in that race as of today -- Methodist pastor Jason Butler of "the LBGTQ-friendly" Open Table United Methodist Church in Raleigh, which he founded not long after arriving in the city in 2016 from Milwaukee. The United Methodist Church is not gay-friendly, so Butler is something of a rebel and a cage-rattler. He sent this email to members of Open Table:

"As I look at the world, I see so much suffering and I get this deep sense that our society is losing its moral compass—kids are in cages, Latinx families are being torn apart, multitudes are living without access to health care, the LGBTQ community is under constant threat, income inequality is out of control, and our environment is dying. These are not just political issues—they are issues of morality and justice—of life and death."

The Open Table website is worth a look, particularly for a sense of the diverse community that Butler has managed to build in three years. Audio of Butler's sermons is also available there, and his sermon about the weaponizing of Sodom and Gomorrah made my visit worth the effort.

The primary comes early next year on March 3rd. This is one I'll be watching (and who knows what other Democrats may register and run -- we're good with the variety!).

Retired Marine Scott Cooper Running to Replace Republican George Holding in Congress

Glad to see so many retired Marines announcing for Congress in 2020!

Scott Cooper retired from the Marine Corps in 2013 after doing a few things:

Twenty years of service specializing in operational leadership, strategic planning and communication, air power, nation-building, and cross-cultural liaisons at the executive level. 

• Squadron commanding officer. Deployed 200-person squadron to Afghanistan, flying in combat. Squadron recognized with Phoenix Award as the #1 unit for maintenance readiness within the Dept of Defense. 

• Strategic analyst and advisor – served as speech writer to the Marine Corps three-star Deputy Commandant for Aviation, responsible for analyzing long-range alternative future security environments and recommending future aviation force structures. 

• Over four years of international service in eight overseas deployments throughout the world. Significant experience in inter-agency coordination and overseas development. Led initial military team into Djibouti in 2002, establishing key relationships with Djiboutian civilians and military. Led U.S. military and embassy planning team efforts in 2002 contingency plans for American citizen evacuations in Pakistan, Jordan, and Egypt. 

• Deployed to Fallujah, Iraq during key tribal engagement efforts in Al Anbar Province, Iraq, the “turning point” in the campaign. 

• Flew Iraqi no-fly zone (Northern and Southern Watch), Bosnian no-fly zone (Deny Flight), Kosovo Air Campaign (Allied Force), Iraq Campaign (Iraqi Freedom – three tours), and Afghanistan Campaign (Enduring Freedom). 

• Key leader and technical expert in the Counter-Improvised Explosive Device efforts in Iraq. Led inter-service and inter-agency effort that achieved an over 50 percent reduction in fatalities in 2007.

Okay. You've got our attention, Colonel.

His philosophical outlook is high-minded (if a tad Little-Mary-Sunshine-ish). He writes on his Facebook page:

I’m proud of my 20 years in the Marine Corps, especially when I look back at all those who gave so much for our country. What strikes me about that experience is that no one asked where you were from, who your parents were, or how much money they made. No one cared about what religion you were, or with what political party you identified....

The last couple of years, it feels like we are more divided than ever. Somehow, the idea has taken hold that those who don’t share your political beliefs are your enemy. I couldn’t disagree more. We all share the same proud title, the most important one in a democracy – citizen.

He's good friends with Richard "Otter" Bew who ran (alas, unsuccessfully) in the Democratic primary for the special election in NC-3. Maybe Cooper's race in the NC 2nd Congressional District will turn winner next year. The "2020 Tracker" at PoliticsNC.com rates the district "competitive."

Scott Cooper is challenging Republican incumbent George Holding, who has played a potted plant in Congress.

DCCC Announces First Tier of 33 US House Seats Targeted for 2020

Via Twitter yesterday, the DCCC (Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee) announced a first list of congressional House districts that will be targeted in 2020:

AZ-06 -- Dave Schweikert
CA-22 -- Devin Nunes
CA-50 -- Duncan Hunter
CO-03 -- Scott Tipton
FL-15 -- Ross Spano
FL-18 -- Brian Mast
GA-07 -- Rob Woodall
IA-04 -- Steve King
IL-13 -- Rodney Davis
IN-05 - Susan Brooks
KY-06 -- Andy Barr
MI-06 -- Fred Upton
MN-01 -- Jim Hagedorn
MO-02 -- Ann Wagner
NC-02 -- George Holding
NC-09 -- OPEN
NC-13 - Ted Budd
NE-02 -- Don Bacon
NY-01 -- Lee Zeldin
NY-02 -- Peter King
NY-24 -- John Katko
NY-27 -- Chris Collins
OH-01 -- Steve Chabot
PA-01 -- Brian Fitzpatrick
PA-10 -- Scott Perry
PA-16 - Mike Kelly
TX-10 -- Mike McCaul
TX-21 -- Chip Roy
TX-22 -- Pete Olson
TX-23 -- Will Hurd
TX-24 -- Kenny Marchant
TX-31 -- John Carter
WA-03 -- Jaime Herrera Beutler

You'll note the three seats in North Carolina, including NC-9 which still remains undecided these months after the election. Kathy Manning might be favored to try again against incumbent Ted Budd in the NC-13 (given her proven ability to raise money and forgetting for the moment that she was four and a half points behind Budd in the final tally). In the NC-2, we'll hope that Linda Coleman backs off from another try. There are other potential challengers in that district who aren't as shop-worn.

Will the amazing Amy McGrath seek a do-over against Andy Barr in the Ky-6? Will Duncan Hunter (Calif-50) and Chris Collins (NY-27) hold on again, despite their active criminal indictments? And there's white supremacist Steve King in Iowa-4. His 2018 opponent, J.D. Scholten, profiled on this site last year, has already announced that he probably won't try again, but maybe he should.

You May Be Seeing an RNC Operative in Your Neighborhood Soon

A Friday headline to go with your second breakfast: "GOP breaks the glass as House outlook darkens; The party is scrambling to shore up seats deep in Trump country, where incumbents won by double digits in 2016."

And this paragraph, deep in the article:

The RNC [Republican Nat'l Committee] has established an elaborate field program in North Carolina, where [George] Holden, [Ted] Budd, and [Robert] Pittenger are running — and where there are otherwise few voter turnout mechanisms in place. With North Carolina in a “blue moon” election cycle, meaning that there are no statewide races on the ballot other than Supreme Court contests, the committee has dispatched six full-time field staffers to the state.

Presumably those hotshot Republican operatives will be fixating on Congressional districts 2, 9, and 13, where Holden, Budd, and Pittenger have been dragging their heels with fundraising, while their likely Democratic opponents (Ken Romley, Dan McCready, and Kathy Manning, respectively) have had no trouble attracting enthusiastic support.

(Yes, I'm aware that Romley, McCready, and Manning all have Democratic primary opponents, and anything might happen, but Romley, McCready, and Manning are far ahead in fundraising and national recognition. Just saying.)

Anyway, where will the RNC station those six full-time field staffers? In urban centers, that the Republicans in the NC General Assembly have been shitting on for five long years?

The Democratic Primary Candidates in CD # 2

George Holding, recumbent Republican

In North Carolina's Congressional District 2, incumbent Republican George Holding already has at least one Republican primary opponent, Allen Chesser. Don't know a thing about Chesser. But I'm learning things about the Democrats lining up on the other side for a primary to see who gets to beat Holding.

George Holding was originally elected to Congress in 2012, but in the 13th CD. When the districts got redrawn under court order, a large chunk of District 13 was redrawn into District 2, and Holding decided in 2016 to run in the latter, which required a primary against incumbent Republican Renee Ellmers. Holding whupped her and then easily beat the Democrat that November.

According to Thomas Mills, "The 2nd District is one of the most independent in the state. More than 30% of the people are registered unaffiliated while Democrats and Republicans are split evenly, making up 35% each .... [It's] a moderately conservative district made up mainly of the suburbs of Raleigh. Legislators who drew the district cut out most of Raleigh, but, still, half of the voters live in Wake County."

Also according to Mills, both the DCCC (Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee) and Swing Left ("a group of individuals from diverse industries, including tech, media, finance, nonprofits, and art [who] have no formal affiliation with any party, union, or organization .... We've been sitting on the sidelines for too long. We don't have all the answers, but we know it's time to channel our anger and despair in a positive direction") have rated District 2 as a potential Democratic pickup.

Here are the three announced Democratic candidates:

Ken Romley -- I'm on his email list, so I see him in action pretty regularly. Thomas Mills (quoted above, and the political guru I'm inclined to pay attention to) is also for hire as a Democratic consultant, and Romley has hired him (which speaks well for Romley, IMO). No surprise, Mills wrote a strong endorsement of Romley on his blog this morning (politicsnc.com). I'm indebted to his perspective.

According to Mills, Romley has raised 12 times as much campaign money as he closest Democratic rival (see below). That makes him someone to watch. And get this: He was registered Unaffiliated until the election of 2018, found that he could no longer refuse to take a side, and registered Democrat to challenge Holding. That is the pure essence of what's been happening all over the country -- "the Trump effect," the energizing of new political talent who know something's got to be done to resist what's happening in Washington.

Mills again: "He understands how to reach the unaffiliated voters who have lost faith in both parties because he was one. He’s not bogged down by the baggage of party politics that can turn off independent voters and he brings a fresh perspective to both the race and politics in general."

His claim to smarts is his success in business: He's a high-tech entrepreneur who has started four different successful businesses over the last 25 years. According to his website, his most recent start-up, Zift Solutions, now employs nearly 200 people. (He's certainly got the best campaign website I've seen in days.) He's not shy about making Trump (and Trumpism) a centerpiece of his criticism of the current state of affairs, but he has stated progressive stances on a wide number of issues.

Wendy Ella May -- Self-described as the first transgender candidate to run for Congress from North Carolina, she also describes herself as a "New Deal Progressive Democrat" and was a DNC delegate from North Carolina for Bernie Sanders in 2016. She also signed up in 2016 to run for the county commission in Johnston County, getting about a third of the vote.

She's a disabled American veteran and says, “One of the reasons I’m running is because of the way the Veterans Administration treats veterans.” She has also worked as a firefighter, minister, and journalist. She’s currently president of the LGBT Democrats of Johnston County and second vice chair of the Progressive Caucus of the N.C. Democratic Party.

Linda Coleman -- She may be considered the front-runner in this primary, because of her indisputable name recognition, but I'm not sure that's enough to win it. She made a strong showing in

Linda Coleman
Photo Burgetta Eplin Wheeler, News and Observer

the lieutenant governor's race in 2012, after winning several prior elections as a Wake County commissioner and a member of the NC House. She's well known. But after losing to Dan Forest in 2012, she lost again in 2016 without improving her margins with the electorate. She's beginning to get that "perennial candidate" look.

In the 2012 elections, Coleman ran a Democratic primary against Eric Mansfield. Pam's Picks endorsed Mansfield in that race and I voted for him, but Coleman beat him by a dozen points. Pam's Picks evaluated Coleman as a lackluster candidate who seemed to float on name recognition.

As Thomas Mills pointed out, she's raised $25,000 to Ken Romley's $300,000 +, not a good sign.

I don't think there's a big difference between Coleman and Romley as to basic, bed-rock issues, so it does come down to electability. I'm inclined to agree with Thomas Mills that Romley is the more electable, as the new thing, as the more energetic candidate, as the guy wading into deep water to save the drowning at floodtide, as the go-getter with no sense of entitlement.

2018 North Carolina Congressional Races--Lay of the Land

Keep in mind that filing for office in 2018 doesn't end until the last day of February, so there will be flux to come in the races below, both primaries and -- hence -- general elections.


District 1
Incumbent Democrat G.K. Butterfield [safe]
Solid Democratic district.


District 2
Incumbent Republican George Holding [?]
Holding already has a primary opponent and a wave of Democrats who want to take him on. The Cook people put Holding in the "Competitive Races" category, but leaning Republican decidedly.

Allen Chesser, his Republican primary opponent, attacks Holding for not holding town halls (ping Virginia Foxx). He doesn't return phone calls. He ignores his constituents. He's never accessible. Chesser is a younger Iraq war veteran and a pretty standard foot-soldier for conservative talking points. He's a Steve Bannon wet dream, is what he is.

Sam Searcy

The Democratic primary could get even more interesting with the entry of Linda Coleman, a high-profile African American public servant and former candidate who ran twice statewide for lieutenant governor. She'll get big backing and can raise money. But the district is 74% white. Dunno if that means anything necessarily, not in a wave year.

The entry of Coleman may have persuaded ASU alum Sam Searcy, who had previously announced for the seat and was raising money, to drop out and run for an NC Senate seat instead. (Searcy has become an entrepreneur businessman and a manufacturer of a local brand of Vodka, and he might beat Tamara Barringer, the incumbent Republican state senator. He looks like a wave candidate to us.)

Other Democrats running in the 2018 primary: businessman Ken Romley and transgender veteran Wendy Ella May. (Scoff not. Remember what happened recently in Virginia?) "Romley, 52, was the CEO of Zift Solutions, a marketing software company based in Cary that employs about 200 people, until he stepped down last month to run for office."

District 3
Incumbent Republican Walter Jones [safe]
Solid Republican district. Jones, a total fuck-you maverick and hence admirable in doses, is safe unless he gets knocked off in a primary, of which there will certainly be one. Put your money on Jones.


District 4
Incumbent Democrat David Price [safe]

Richard Watkins

David Price will have a loser Republican opponent in November (whichever of at least two candidates wins the Republican primary), but he'll have his own primary too.

Richard Watkins, a young African American Ph.D. in microbiology and immunology, is challenging Price. Looks like a generational contest to me, and a potentially important one. Watkins probably can't beat David Price, but I'm glad he might be a once and future candidate. We need more young scientists on the ballot.

District 5
Incumbent Republican Virginia Foxx [safe]
Yuck. The consensus is always "she can't be beat." Anyone can be beat. Anything can happen in a wave.

Two Democrats, both impressive women, are vying in the primary to take Foxx on next November. We'll know come middle of May who the candidate will be.

District 6
Incumbent Republican Mark Walker [safe]
The district is solid Republican, but there's a small gaggle of Democrats massing to challenge Walker. Walker is a charismatic Baptist preacher and the slayer of Phil Berger Jr. in the Republican primary of  2014, for which he will always be memorialized.


District 7
Incumbent Republican David Rouzer [safe]
Rated solid Republican district.

Jonah Gardner

Two Democrats so far have gotten in the race. Dr. Kyle Horton, an internal medicine doctor and a woman, announced way back in May, followed in June by Jonah Gardner, a computer programmer and IT professional. This 2018 crop of young activists of both sexes (thank you, Donald J. Trump!) inspires new confidence and old hope.

District 8
Incumbent Republican Richard Hudson [safe]
Solid Republican district (but it's a lot of suburbs, bro, and the suburbs is where the turn will come). No considerable Democrat has stepped forward yet.


District 9
Incumbent Republican Robert Pittenger [?]
Cook calls this district competitive but "likely Republican" (a moment which may be slipping away).

Pittenger may not make it through his primary with Baptist firebrand Mark Harris (who knows a special place in hell for those who disagree with the Lord him and who almost beat Pittenger in the primary of 2016).

Dan McCready

On the Democratic side: Front-runner Dan McCready, along with Christian Cano, who ran for the seat in 2016,  and Maria Warren, an attorney, will face off in May. All the smart money's on McCready, who could beat Pittenger and will beat Rev. Harris, should he prevail in the primary.

District 10
Incumbent Republican Patrick McHenry [safe]
Despite being high up in leadership in Congress, McHenry usually draws a primary opponent, and 2018 will be no different. But he also hasn't drawn a stand-out Democrat yet.


District 11
Incumbent Republican Mark Meadows [safe]
Meadows has made a name for himself in Washington as The Man Who Shut Down Government in 2013, a badge he wears happily among the conservative voters of the 11th District and unhappily among the Republican leadership in Washington. He's a pain in the ass tool of ALEC.

Meadows has a dark horse Republican by the name of Christopher Money running against him in a primary.

For awhile two Democrats wanted to run against Meadows. Matt Coffay, a leader in the Asheville chapter of Our Revolution, got into the race with a splash back in April but pulled out in July. Scott Donaldson announced in September. He's a 53-year-old urologist from Hendersonville who has made "a name for himself in certain circles with a series of YouTube videos, radio show appearances and even a published book."

District 12
Incumbent Democrat Alma Adams [safe]
Safe Democratic seat. But Adams does have one Republican announced against her. Yawn.


District 13
Incumbent Republican Tedd Budd [?]
Cook rates this district "competitive" but "likely Republican." Democrats are massing to challenge

Adam Coker

the relatively indistinctive Budd.

Adam Coker also ran for this seat in 2016 in a crowded field but lost the primary. His big issue is health insurance and he wants to win by getting Republicans to vote for him (a fool's errand). His Democratic opponents include Kathy Manning, "a former immigration lawyer who is well known in her district for her philanthropy," and Beniah McMiller, a 36-year-old African American teacher at Mitchell Community College in Statesville.

"Renee Knows How To Do It"

Donald Trump made his first-ever endorsement in a Congressional Republican primary, and he chose Renee Ellmers in the NC-2.

Trump recorded a robocall for Ellmers: “I need her help in Washington so we can work together to defeat ISIS, secure our border, and bring back jobs and frankly, so many other things. And Renee knows how to do it. She gets it. And together, we will make America great again.”

Well, okay then.

Meanwhile, Ellmers is in the primary race of her short-ish political career, matched through redistricting with fellow incumbent Republican Congressman George Holding, who's being supported  by the Koch octopus and the Club for Growth. (Perennial candidate and creepy gynecologist Greg Brannon is also running in this primary.)

Since the Koch Bros. have pointedly refused to endorse Trump, perhaps Trump's endorsement of Ellmers is payback. Trump is into payback.

The North Carolina Tea Partiers, who have long despised Ellmers, are not taking the Trump endorsement well.

U.S. Supremes to North Carolina: "Deal With Your Own Mess"

The U.S. Supreme Court late yesterday declined to stay a lower court ruling about the illegal gerrymandering of congressional districts.

The New York Times offered the understatement of the day: "...North Carolina now faces a chaotic situation just when some voters have already begun sending in absentee ballots under the old congressional districting scheme."

Meanwhile, in Mugstomp on the Neuse, the NC General Assembly Republicans forced through their new redistricting plan and set the congressional primaries for June 7, with the new open filing period to run from March 16-25.

Apparently, when we all vote in the other primary on March 15, congressional primary races -- like Virginia Foxx's race against Pattie Curran on the Republican ballot -- will still be on the ballot in Watauga County and presumably elsewhere across the 5th District.

The State Board of Elections issued a statement last night about that: "State Elections Director Kim Strach, acknowledging the potential for voter confusion, urged people to vote for their preferred congressional candidate in both elections. “Vote the whole ballot and let us worry about what will count,” she said in a statement issued after the bill passed both chambers."

"Let us worry about what will count." Excuse me, Ms. Strach, but considering past and recent history at the SBOE, I think maybe there's enough worry to go around.

Renee Ellmers

Meanwhile, the political fallout from this mess is beginning to get interesting: Rep. George Holding, Republican, who has been drawn out of his 13th District, has already announced that he will now be challenging fellow incumbent Republican Renee Ellmers for her 2nd District seat. He might beat her, but from what we're hearing, Holding's about as unpopular with the Republican base as is Ellmers. And who knows how many of Ellmers' original primary challengers will re-file against her. Could be a crowded field, and with the "no run-off" provision, whoever gets the most votes, wins.

Mugstomp on the Neuse Goes Under Water

It has become surreal in Raleigh.

1. The General Assembly -- mainly the Republican Grandees in the NC Senate -- have redrawn congressional districts to maintain their 10-3 Republican dominance, while also conveniently punishing Democrat Alma Adams (by moving her 12th District completely out from under her) and delivering what looks like a career-ending blow to fellow Republican George Holding who is now double-bunked with Democratic Congressman David Price.

2. All this rush to redistrict what a three-judge panel said was unconstitutional gerrymandering may be rendered moot if Chief Justice John Roberts comes through with a Supreme Court stay of the three-judge panel's decision.

3. If Chief Justice Roberts issues a stay, then everything goes back to where we were last week: all primaries in all races on March 15. Otherwise, with no intercession from the Supremes, the Congressional primary will be yanked off the ballot for March 15 -- every other ballot item remaining in place -- and moved to June 7th.

4. No run-offs allowed. For the March 15 primary, and for all the races still on that ballot, top vote-getter wins even if he/she doesn't get to the magic 40 percent marker. (This could conceivably save Renee Ellmers' bacon. She's in a four-person primary race and will conceivably have some difficulty getting to 40 percent. The other likely beneficiary: Deborah Ross, who's in a four-way Democratic primary for U.S. Senate.)

5. Here's where it gets bizarre, according to what passed in the NC House late yesterday. Here I must quote directly from the N&O to get it straight:

In another twist, candidates who won a March 15 primary then could file to run for a congressional seat June 7. If they won in both primaries, they would have to withdraw from one, within a week after the June 7 results were certified.

That means, for example, a legislator who already had been renominated for a seat could run in a congressional primary, and continue to seek re-election as a legislator if he or she lost the latter vote.

I have questions. I hardly know where to start. I'm assuming that the word "candidates" in that first sentence refers to any candidates in any primary race. Certain moments from the early Byzantine Empire are flickering in my mind.

6. No. 5 creates another level of confusion and chaos unanticipated by any sane person outside the halls of the NC House. It potentially creates a campaign finance loophole through which you could drive a tank. Allowing candidates in other state primaries to also file to run for the U.S. Congress without foregoing their state races would open the door for using money raised for a state campaign in a Federal campaign, which is illegal. This will be litigated. It will not stand.

7. Any resemblance between the North Carolina General Assembly and The Gang That Couldn't Shoot Straight is not coincidental.

Read more here: http://www.newsobserver.com/news/politics-government/state-politics/article61166027.html#storylink=cpy

The Current and On-Going Mess with Congressional Districts

Late yesterday, Republican gerrymanderers in the General Assembly released proposed new congressional districts. It's going to take some time to fully digest what it all means, but in redrawing districts 1 and 12, under court order, the map-drawers redrew all 13 districts.

Virginia Foxx's 5th District would now take in all of Forsyth, which means the urban core of Winston-Salem, and would regain Stokes and Surry counties while losing Iredell.

Two House members have been drawn out of their districts ... Democrat Alma Adams in the 12th (which would now be entirely in Mecklenburg) and Republican George Holding in the 13th.

What happens now? The General Assembly was called back this morning to vote on this new map, which they will because the Republicans are in the majority, but will the three-judge panel who ordered the redrawing accept the maps? Who knows?

And what happens with the primary due to launch Early Voting in a matter of days? Some of the incumbent congress people have primaries, including Virginia Foxx, but with the districts moved -- some of them light-years -- aren't there likely to be new potential candidates who would like the chance to run?

This is a mess made in the Republican kitchen.

Foxx Votes No on Relief for Sandy Hurricane Victims

Well, at least the woman (...) is consistent in her refusals to help Americans devastated by natural disasters. Once it was Katrina aid. Today it was Sandy. She voted no, one of 67 mostly Republican members to turn their backs on the citizens of New Jersey, New York, and Connecticut.

Joining her were the three newest North Carolina Republican members of the U.S. House, Mark Meadows (NC-11), Richard Hudson (NC-8), and George Holding (NC-13).

Wonder what they'll be saying, and how they'll be voting, when the North Carolina coast is wiped out by a hurricane.

CORRECTION
All 67 of those voting against Sandy aid were Republicans.