The Unpredictable Surprises of November 3rd

"If you’re a Republican in Congress, even if you’re running in a district Trump won by eighteen points, even if your polls have you ahead, brace yourself – you may find yourself staring a hard reality in the eye on election night."

--Carter Wrenn on Substack, Sept. 4, 2026 

 

I love it when a respected conservative operative, who was Jesse Helms's political guru for years, plays Cassandra for his side. You know who Cassandra was -- Priam's daughter who always knew when disaster was coming. No one ever believed her. That was her curse. Carter Wrenn's playing that part for Republicans. More than prophet, Wrenn knows politics and can see history straight. Among many other political achievements, Wrenn managed Ronald Reagan's winning campaign in the North Carolina primary of 1980, upsetting Gerald Ford. 

Wrenn predicts in a roundabout way that turnout -- lack of turnout -- will be the Achilles heel for Republicans this November. Lack of turnout can erase an 18-point paper advantage very quickly.

Which is why the surprises of November 3rd are pretty much unpredictable. Less than two months to go to find out.