Be Happy! Watauga in the New 14th CD

 

Except for Virginia Foxx's residential precinct, the rest of Watauga County is now the northernmost chunk of the new 14th Congressional District, and the blue voters here make everything better for every Democrat south of us. The Princeton Gerrymandering Project rates the district with a 46.13% Democratic vote share and a 53.69% Republican share. Those are numbers any congressional candidate, especially any candidate running against the likes of Madison Cawthorn, should be able to work with and build on.

Here are the Democratic candidates (alpha order) that I know about, with more probably arriving presently:

Jasmine Beach-Ferrara (D)

Jay Carey (D)

Katie Dean (D)

Eric Gash (D)

Bo Hess (D)

Josh Remillard (D)

Brooker Smith (D)

Chelsea White (D)

Two days ago on Twitter, Dr. Steve Woodsmall, retired USAF major and a former Democratic primary candidate in both 2018 and in 2020 for the 11th CD nomination, made an announcement in reaction to more juvenilia from Cawthorn (Cawthorn had threatened anyone who opposed him with violent retribution):

Woodsmall

This is the last straw. I am now ready to run against this lowlife little twerp but since a Dem can’t win here I will run unaffiliated IF y’all can help me get the 9400 petition signatures to get on the ballot!

After his primary loss to the 2020 Democratic congressional candidate Moe Davis, Woodsmall left the party and has seemed bitter about it. In 2018, I profiled Woodsmall here with his primary opponents. In 2020, I did it again here.

So far as Woodsmall's opinion that "a Dem can't win here," I reject that, especially when the opponent is a juicy spectacle like Madison Cawthorn. Adult Republicans are also sick of his immaturity and preening self-regard, and the right candidate from the list above could rally the Dems and the Unaffiliated to beat him. Not, however (probably), if there's a third candidate draining away the independents.

Earthquake in the NC-11

Woke this morning to news that Rep. Mark Meadows of the NC 11th Congressional district is stepping down and won't run for reelection. Why he would wait until one day before the close of filing -- deadline in North Carolina is tomorrow at noon -- is unclear, but isn't it entertaining to imagine the Republican machine in the 11th in full panic mode this morning? They probably knew, right? Surely Meadows shared his plans so the party could come up with a strong contender. But I'm giddy, thinking of the possibilities.

One answer is here: "Meadows told Politico that it’s possible he could leave the House before his term ends in January 2021." There's the plan. They'll appoint the winner of the now certain 2020 Republican primary to the seat, and ... advantage goes to the incumbent. We will be watching which candidates get filed by noon tomorrow, including, we bet, a bunch of conservative wildcats (Hendersonville, we're looking at you) who aren't in on the Meadows Plan (whatever that is). I bet there's a death-scramble to the state Board of Elections --- by guys who aren't on Mark Meadows' short list -- that might keep me off the highway. No telling who'll file.

The other side of certainty -- prospects for the eventual Democratic primary winner tics upward with Meadows gone. (More on the latest Democrat to file in the 11th, see below.)

To explain his going at this time, consider this assessment of Meadows: "...he does not enjoy being in the House minority and spends much of his time at the White House huddling with Trump." He's become the Trump Whisperer, which just happens to coincide with his search for a lucrative bump-up in salary. Possibly he's bored that he can't jerk kinks like he used to:

The Meadows Bio

Meadows plotted a rapid rise to power and influence in Republican Washington, one propelled by his early willingness to challenge the GOP establishment. He almost instantly leaped from anonymous backbencher to oft-quoted conservative insurgent in 2015.

Just before the House left for its summer recess — and on his own birthday — Meadows filed a motion to remove then-Speaker John A. Boehner (R-Ohio) from his perch, seizing on years of growing dismay on the hard right. Within two months, Boehner would announce his resignation.

Meadows, as a co-founder and later chairman of the House Freedom Caucus, went on to play a pivotal role over the speakership of Rep. Paul D. Ryan (R-Wis.) — inserting himself and the Freedom Caucus into virtually every major legislative decision in the House. This made Meadows a power player rivaling only the speaker himself. [reporting by the team Wagner, Costa, and DeBonis]

UPDATE ON REPUBLICAN CONTENDERS:
Lynda Bennett is first out of the gate. Is she the Chosen One? The Asheville Tea Party supports her.





The New Democrat in the Race

[On December 12th, I did a quick and preliminary profile of Democrats who've already been running in the 11th: Steve Woodsmall, Michael O'Shea, and Moe Davis. Moe Davis, especially, might be catching fire. His speech at the pro-impeachment rally in Asheville on the 18th got wide social media attention.]

Now add Gina Collias, (announced yesterday), lawyer and real estate broker from Cleveland County (Shelby), same county that Speaker Tim Moore sprang from. But get this: until recently she was a registered Republican. She actually ran in the 2018 Republican primary against Patrick McHenry in the 10th CD, got less than 14% of the vote (to McHenry's 70% -- yikes). Maybe it was because she was defending the Affordable Care Act and other "moderate" positions to Republican primary voters who do not "heart" RINOs, primary voters who like a little carbolic on their morning cereal.

Collias ran as a moderate Republican, no kidding. She defines herself on her website:

Gina had been a Republican for much of her life. After the 2016 election, however, Gina became concerned over the tone, discourse, and direction of the country. In her effort to bridge differences and bring people together, Gina founded the national group “Rational Republicans” on Facebook [private group]. Gina envisioned the site as a place where Democrats, Republicans, and Independents could have civil discourse. It was a success, and the dialogue and conversation continue to this day.

Although Gina is moderate on issues such as fiscal policy, she realized that, as a woman who has always held positions that are socially progressive, her values and ideology more closely mirrored the Democratic Party.

Gina is a pro-choice, pro-civil rights, pro-education, and pro-environment advocate. She has spoken at the Woman’s March, advocated for sensible gun laws, appeared at union conferences and believes all Americans have the right to decent health care.

These are the positions that the Democratic Party has fought for and principles Gina has always held.

Gina Collias's home in Cleveland County was recently remapped out of the 10th CD and into the 5th (same thing happened to David Wilson Brown who has now filed against Virginia Foxx). Don't know when exactly Collias signed the paper to change her party affiliation, but it had to be within the last two months. Because on her website as of October 7th she was still running as a Republican against Patrick McHenry in the 10th.

Her over-long introductory video is wily (either in a clever way or an actionable way) in that Collias invokes Lillian's List, with historic photos of Lillian Exum Clement, the pioneering Democratic woman from Asheville who became the first woman elected to the NC House (at a time that women couldn't even vote). The assumption might sprout in an unwary mind that Lillian's List, the powerful statewide Democratic women's PAC, has endorsed Collias, which ain't the case. Lillian's List doesn't endorse in Federal races.

The Coming Democratic Primary for Congress, 11th District

Not a fan of Democratic primaries when there are multiple strong/talented/divinely inspired candidates struggling to out-do one another. It can be a waste of energy, money, resources, but I'll also admit it can also be a chance for an unknown to get known in a valuable way, especially if the unknown candidate is running against an entrenched incumbent. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, anyone?

Then there's a Democratic primary like the one in the NC 11th, where three (so far) Democrats are vying for the privilege of getting the snot beat out of them by Republican incumbent Rep. Mark Meadows. Meadows has made himself into a national figure, which means he can raise money merely by farting on Fox News. Never mind that he's earned a reputation as a dumb-as-a-box-of-hammers ass-kisser --  it don't matter (it's a law that a grammarian can be ungrammatical when it pleases him!). Meadows has his tribe. They'll voodoo him to the fourth dimension no matter what.

'Course, the recent court-ordered redistricting of the 11th substantially diluted the congressman's tribe. He now has all of Buncombe and all of liberal Asheville back in his district. I'm waiting for poly sci prof Mitchael Bitzer to do his demographic analysis of the new 11th, to know exactly how formidable Meadows (still) looks on paper, but I suspect he's still got the numbers on his side (if for no other reason because he now has Republican-saturated Avery County in his district).

What defines us Democratic activists is eternal hope. Hope springs. Hope springs eternal. There is evidently great hope bubbling in the hearts of these three Democrats who've already filed for the March 3rd primary in the 11th CD, and depending on who wins the primary, Meadows might have a harder-than-usual fight on his hands.

Steve Woodsmall
Woodsmall, a retired Air Force major (a veteran, like so many other new Democratic candidates in the Age of Trump), has been a candidate for this office since 2017. He ran in the 2018 Democratic primary for the same seat -- also in a 3-person field -- and came in second to Phillip Price -- losing the primary by just over 3,000 votes (out of 33,257 total votes cast). The third candidate, Scott Donaldson, trailed distantly. Winner Phillip Price went on to lose to Mark Meadows by 61.5 thousand votes. Ouch.

So Woodsmall is back for another shot, and he's been running an energetic campaign since last February. I follow him on Facebook and Twitter. He's an unabashed progressive, and he's getting out there among allied groups and has teamed up with other district candidates for NC House and Senate  -- not to mention the US Senate -- for joint events in Asheville and elsewhere. That's good practice, building wide and deep ballot support for the Democratic side (and, I hope, recruiting boots-on-the-ground volunteers) ... except some of those other candidates have primaries of their own and may well lose, and do you see the problem with that?

Michael O'Shea
A recent college graduate (WCU, BA in philosophy), O'Shea touts himself as a "millennial progressive." He also touts his Appalachian bona fides; his pre-Revolutionary ancestors have been in the Western North Carolina mountains for many generations. He's also a P.K. (preacher's kid). His father was pastor for decades of the Unity of the Blue Ridge non-denominational church in Mills River. The pastor's son did not follow his father into the ministry. From the candidate's website:

Michael has spent the last decade primarily in the music industry. After college he auditioned for a 7-piece afrobeat/funk band and toured with them playing drums, his primary instrument. He is also a vocalist and a multi-instrumentalist who has released over 75 songs of solo electronic rock material where he plays and produces every sound. Most recently he has been touring as the drummer for a female-fronted electronic rock duo in Asheville.

His first time to vote was in the presidential year of 2008. He voted in the 2016 presidential primary but not in the general (which probably means something, but I'm not gonna guess). He did vote in the 2016 General Election. But he appears to be new to political activism as he's not appeared on the radar screen of Henderson County Democrats up until now.

Not quite ready for primetime? That's the generous opinion of retired USAF Major Richard J. Mueller (and to be fair, Mueller characterized O'Shea in an endorsement email for his friend Steve Woodsmall, so ... go figure):

In my opinion [Michael O'Shea] is very well intentioned, and represents the feelings so many of us have about current politics, but his time is not now. The times in which we live demand seasoned professionals. With more experience, his future is bright, and his day will surely come.

Morris "Moe" Davis

An ex-military man (also USAF, like Woodsmall), but with higher rank (he retired as a colonel), has also a higher pre-candidacy national profile, because Davis served two years as Chief Prosecutor of the Military Commissions at Guantanamo Bay and resigned in protest because his superiors in the Air Force Judiciary and the General Counsel of the Department of Defense overruled his decision to disallow evidence obtained via CIA torture. In resigning his position, Davis declared that he wasn't going to take orders from people who think "waterboarding is A-Okay."

He's a hard-nose. Read his Wikipedia entry. He's got a clear pattern of courting controversy, or at least not skirting around it when it blocks his path of moral certitude (he said the Supreme Court was "meddling" when it chose to review the Military Commissions Act). He's not afraid to defy authority when he thinks he's right, and you've got to admire his fortitude. He's been on all the broadcast and cable news programs as a recognized expert in national security, especially security from terrorists who he thinks should be prosecuted the fair way and not via the CIA torture wheel, but he's also defended Guantanamo as a "humane" detention center.

He's almost running to the left of Steve Woodsmall. He endorses universal health care ("whether it is called Medicare For All or any other name"), access to abortion, legalizing marijuana, and income equality. His website is no-nonsense and straight to the kisser, sort of like his military career.

Democratic Scramble After New Congressional Maps Pass the NCGA

With the opening of candidate filing for 2020 just two weeks away, there's visible signs of potential Democratic candidates reevaluating their options:

Paul Lowe

6th Congressional District -- which is now remapped to be all of Guilford and the urban heart of Forsyth. We hear that state Senator Paul Lowe (32nd District) is seriously considering running for the seat. Lowe was appointed to the NC Senate in 2015 when Earline Parmon resigned, ran unopposed for reelection in 2016, and was reelected easily a second time in 2018. He is the pastor of Shiloh Baptist Church in Winston-Salem and a former Democratic chair of the 5th District. There will undoubtedly be others, especially in Guilford County, also considering a run for this much bluer congressional seat.






5th Congressional District -- Jeanne Supin announced months ago that she was building a campaign infrastructure to challenge Virginia Foxx. With Forsyth County now completely eliminated from the 5th, Supin appears to be shelving the effort. We're hearing that she's laid off her staff.

But with Gaston now drawn into the new 5th, David Wilson Brown, who has been running a campaign in the old 10th District (and he ran there against Patrick McHenry in 2018 too), is considering now running in the 5th.

David Wilson Brown

FOOTNOTE: We're hearing from multiple sources that both Virginia Foxx and Patrick McHenry are unamused by their redrawn districts, which would appear to advantage one Tim Moore for running in the 5th if and when Virginia Foxx retires. Tim Moore lives in Cleveland County, and there's consensus that the remapping was done for his future benefit.

10th Congressional District -- If David Wilson Brown moves over to run in the 5th, that will leave an opening for another Democrat to run against Patrick McHenry -- perhaps someone from Iredell.


11th Congressional District -- With all of Buncombe County and Asheville restored to this district, the campaign of Democrat Steve Woodsmall against the toxic Mark Meadows would appear to be considerably enhanced. Woodsmall has been energetically building out his campaign for months now, raising money, and negatively defining Meadows via social media.

2nd Congressional District -- Lt. Col. Scott Cooper, USMC (Retired), has already for several months been building a campaign against incumbent Republican George Holding. The new 2nd District is now based entirely in Wake County, and Cooper lives in northern Wake in the town of Wake Forest. I know that congressional candidates are not required to live in the districts they represent, but it sure does help when you're a first time candidate. Cooper would appear to have a headstart on taking this seat (though he will undoubtedly have a primary challenge).

New Hope for Unseating Mark Meadows in NC-11

Steve Woodsmall

I profiled Democratic congressional candidate Steve Woodsmall early last year after he entered the Democratic primary in the 11th Congressional District of North Carolina for the opportunity of taking on Mark Meadows. He didn't make it through the primary, losing to Phillip Price who ultimately lost to Meadows in November by a hefty margin.

It's a notoriously difficult district for Democrats, who haven't held it since Heath Shuler.

Woodsmall says he's all-in for another go, prepared for the 2020 Democratic primary in a way that he wasn't quite prepared in 2018.

I especially appreciate the write-up Woodsmall got from college student Eric Perless which promises that Woodsmall will do more retail, one-on-one groundwork in the 11th District this time, and he's out early enough to gather a good team of volunteers to knock those doors and make those calls.

And what a big, fat, juicy target incumbent Congressman Mark Meadows presents! Master of the government shutdown, toady to Trump, lover of tax cuts for the rich -- Meadows has by now a lengthy record of couldn't-care-less about rural people, including opposition to the Agriculture and Nutrition Act of 2018.

Three Democrats Vying To Run Against Mark Meadows in the NC-11th District

Reading the thoughts of Congressman Mark Meadows this morning on how gun control is not the answer and how schools just need more armed police, I'm seriously looking at the possible antidote for this fool in November. Three Democrats have filed in the 11th Congressional District for the right to take on Meadows, and one of them will come out on top on May 8th.

So ... more or less in the order they got into this race:

Scott Donaldson

Democrat Phillip Price of McDowell County announced last year in July. He has a website and a Facebook page. He's a business entrepreneur and owns a company that salvages lumber from demolitions and tear-downs and repurposes it for new construction projects. Kyle Perrotti did a lengthy profile of Price in The Mountaineer and noted that the candidate pushes two primary memes about himself -- that he's a very dedicated Christian (“People have asked if religion will affect my policies, and I say, 'yes they will,' ”) and that he's willing to compromise ("He differs from hardline progressives in his desire to compromise"). Oy vey! I might be able to gulp hard and take the declaration of religiosity as a sincere effort to find The Light, but I balk at the second. Reminds me too much of the early Barack Obama, who compromised away what could have been an effective health-care fix, whose willingness always to compromise looked like weakness to the Republicans (and some Democrats), who made a sport of running him over and then backing up and running him over again. Interestingly, Price was a Bernie Sanders supporter in 2016. Sanders was (and still is) neither Christian nor a compromiser. So ... go figure.

Scott Donaldson

Democrat Scott Donaldson is a urological surgeon in Hendersonville. He has a website and a Facebook page. He's been a regular on Hendersonville's WTZQ-FM as a "radio storyteller," "with warm, compassionate and witty accounts of patients he’s treated and people he’s met." He put some of those stories together with photographs into a small book, "Urological Surgery and Lite Haulin: Relections of a Small Town Surgeon." We're talking folksiness, not a bad thing in the 11th District. As a physician he takes a stand on expanding healthcare: "Obamacare was a step in the right direction, but there are still coverage gaps and Republicans in Congress have done everything in their power to try to undermine the law, leaving many Americans vulnerable. I promise to fight for legislation that will expand coverage for all Americans and make sure that no one has to incur mountains of debt or is denied medical coverage because of inability to pay." And he provides a clear contrast to Mark Meadows on another issue: "I own guns, a lot of them. But I know we need common sense solutions to prevent tragedies. We must limit access to guns for people with mental illness, place limits on high capacity magazines, and ban civilian ownership of weapons that were clearly designed for military purposes. Universal background checks and mandatory wait times are also a no-brainer."

Steve Woodsmall

Democrat Steve Woodsmall is an Air Force veteran (he retired at the rank of Major) who is now teaching leadership and management at Brevard College. He has a website and a Facebook page. Becky Johnson profiled him in The Mountaineer. Like a lot of Democratic insurgents running in 2018, Woodsmall said he never aspired to be a politician but couldn't remain silent "given the country's trajectory." “Silence constitutes acceptance. We were always taught in the Air Force if you aren’t part of the solution you are part of the problem, and we’ve got a big problem right now,” Woodsmall said. He prefers the term "progressive" as a self-descriptor. Woodsmall also has Republican Meadows' stance on gun safety on his mind this morning. From his Facebook page: "The vast majority of Americans support gun safety regulations. But politicians like Mark Meadows, who have received THOUSANDS AND THOUSANDS of dollars from the NRA, won't even support common sense gun regulation that would save innocent lives because the NRA is against it." Woodsmall has his own book: "It Beats Eatin' Lizards: Lessons Learned in Life and Leadership." He has extensive platform positions on his website, and they are indeed progressive.


There's a lot of talent in the Democratic primary in the 11th Congressional District. If I lived there and could vote for one of these men, I'd be hard pressed at the moment to make a choice. But if I lived there and could vote, I'd enjoy getting to know all of them better and to probe their electability. Anything could happen in a Blue Wave!