The NC Congressional Races, 2022

 

We now have seven Democrats representing North Carolina in the US Congress, seven of 14, so we improved our numbers there and helped blunt Democratic losses in other states (like in Florida, where -- yikes! -- there is officially no intelligent life surviving).

Don Davis

CD1 -- Democrat Don Davis comfortably beat the bullying Trumpist Sandy Smith by 11,600 votes for the open seat once held by the venerable G.K. Butterfield.

CD2 -- Democrat Deborah Ross easily held on to her seat.

CD3 -- Republican incumbent Greg Murphy easily buried his Democratic opponent.

CD4 -- Democrat Valerie Foushee easily won David Price's open seat.

CD5 -- Republican Virginia Foxx ... don't get me started.

CD6 -- Democratic incumbent Kathy Manning won reelection with 53.75% of the vote.

CD7 -- Republican incumbent David Rouzer easily put away Democrat Charles Graham, who had one of the best introductory candidate videos, produced by Frank Eaton while Graham was planning to run against Dan Bishop in CD9, but new gerrymandering did him in there.

CD8 -- Republican Dan Bishop, a male Virginia Foxx, is now elected to be a jerk to infinity and beyond.

CD9 -- Republican incumbent Richard Hudson easily won reelection.

CD10 -- Republican incumbent Patrick McHenry took 72% of the vote.

CD11 -- Republican Chuck Edwards is now permanently (probably) a D.C. fixture, beating Jasmine Beach-Ferara. It wasn't even close.

Wiley Nickel

CD12 -- Democratic incumbent Alma Adams easily beat Madison Cawthorn clone Tyler Lee, who apparently believes he's on a mission from God.

CD13 -- For Ted Budd's old House seat, Democrat Wiley Nickel beat the other Madison Cawthorn clone, Bo Hines, by over 7,000 votes. Hines and his patron Donald Trump were counting on that red wave, which didn't arrive for him. Maybe Hines can now go seek an actual job.

CD14 -- For the brand new 14th, state Sen. Jeff Jackson easily rolled over his Republican challenger. Can't help thinking he would maybe have won that Senate seat this year.

Update on Candidate Filings -- 1 Day Left

 

Deanna Ballard

Though Sen. Jeff Jackson dropped out of the US Senate race and cleared the path for Cheri Beasley, she still has -- believe it or not -- 8 Democratic primary opponents, some of them "perennials" and some who apparently don't mind spending the filing fee of $1,740. To gain what, exactly?

Speaking of Sen. Jackson, he's filed to run in the new 14th CD and at the moment has a single primary opponent.

Former congressman Mark Walker did finally file yesterday for the Republican primary for US Senate.

Perennial Democratic candidate Erica D. Smith has filed in the CD1 and will face state senator Don Davis in a primary for the open seat. No Republican incumbent but 4 Republicans filed in the primary.

In CD4, considered "safe Democratic," a real fight is shaping up between Nida Allam, a Durham County commissioner; Valerie Foushee, a formidable state senator; and Richard L. Watkins, a young African American Ph.D. in microbiology and immunology.

CD6 (largely Guildford Co.), which is supposed to be a solid Democratic House seat, so far has no Democratic candidate. Apparently waiting for current Democratic incumbent Kathy Manning to file for reelection.

NC Senate race to watch: Deanna Ballard and Ralph Hise were double-bunked in this new district (Dist. 47),  and indeed Ballard has decided to take on Hise, the very man who drew the map that double-bunked them. The Republican establishment was evidently trying to encourage her to retire, but she ain't going easy.

Ashe County Democrat Ben Massey has filed to run against incumbent Republican Ray Pickett. Two Watauga precincts (Blue Ridge and Elk) have been removed from this district (#93) and added to Caldwell, while Allegheny County got added to Pickett's district.

For the first time in many years, there will be a Democratic primary contest for a County Commission seat between Carrington Pertalion and Angela Laws King.

The Trump Endorsement Two-Step

 

See the new 7th Congressional District, the yellow blotch smack in the center of North Carolina? Former Congressman Mark Walker, who's been running for the US Senate for two years (Burr seat), is thinking of jumping (migrating) into the 7th CD race ... IF he can get the blessing of Donald J. Trump. Walker is reportedly at Mar-a-Lago right now, groveling.

It's complicated. Madison Cawthorn is also at Mar-a-Lago this weekend.

1. The 7th District includes Alamance, Randolph, Chatham, Lee and portions of Wake, Guilford, and Davidson counties (very different from the old 7th, which used to stretch south of Wake to Wilmington). DavesRedistricting.org rates the "Republican lean" in the new 7th at 56.5%.

1.b. Mark Walker doesn't actually live in the new 7th though he wants Trump's blessing to run there. Walker lives in the new 11th. He used to live in and represent the old 6th CD (keep up!), which Democrat Kathy Manning won in 2020 after Walker stepped down to run for Senate. Manning, incidentally, is now double-bunked with Virginia Foxx in the new 11th (which literally gives the finger to Watauga County and stretches east to Greensboro). Foxx has announced that she's running again in CD11. No word yet from Kathy Manning.

2. The new 7th contains much of what used to be the old 13th CD, Ted Budd's perch before he decided to run for Senate as a gun-toting good ole boy and subsequently received the Trump endorsement (staged, incidentally, by Trump with Mark Walker and Pat McCrory at the rally, so very much present for their official snubbing). 

2.b. The new 13th CD -- Madison Cawthorn 's new main squeeze.

3. Cawthorn's a Trump altarboy. Trump invited Cawthorn to participant in the January 6th sedition rally, and he formally endorsed him for reelection to Congress soon after in March.

4. Turn-abouts (the Trumpist "ripple effect"): Cawthorn took it on himself to endorse Mark Walker for Senate before Trump picked Ted Budd. Oops. Cawthorn has actually endorsed a long list of his own worthies, including Virginia Foxx (and see below # 6).

5. It would ease a Madison burden if Walker dropped out of the Senate race. Cawthorn could then endorse Ted Budd and be in synch with DJT.

6. But Walker's jumping over to run in the 7th CD puts him upstream of yet another Madison Cawthorn endorsement (how prideful is this guy?). Bo Hines (of district-shopping fame) had already settled on using the 7th for his novice political tryout, and Cawthorn promptly endorsed him. (Cawthorn seems to believe he's got the royal touch, like the blessing of a saint or for curing scrofula). 

7. Over 10 other Republicans have already announced campaigns in the Republican primary upcoming in March: Bo Hines, Kent Keirsey, Jennyfer Bucardo, Lee Haywood, Christian Castelli, Peter Boykin, Marvin Boguslawski and Chad Slotta. Walker will make a lot of activists mad coming in suddenly to this fold, especially if he has Trump's blessing 

8. What does Cawthorn say to Trump about Walker? About Bo Hines? And did Cawthorn and Walker bump into each other at the palace of the caesar? And what did they talk about?

9. No Democrat so far has announced a challenge in the new 7th. According to Dave, the "minority" population in the new 7th is over 30%. I bet a lot of those citizens are not even registered to vote.

Un-Trumping North Carolina: Two Easy-Peasy US House Seats for Democrats To Flip

Deborah Ross

Not to get too cocky about it, but the 2nd and the 6th Congressional district seats should be easy pick-ups for Democrats this year. After all, they were redrawn last year to favor Democrats by a Republican General Assembly eager to get the Federal courts off their backs. Democrats Deborah Ross (in the 2nd) and Kathy Manning (in the 6th) are by now well known, well funded, and certainly favored to win. Ross previously served in the NC House for a decade, rose in the leadership, but left for work in the private sector before returning to politics in 2016 to run unsuccessfully against Richard Burr for the US Senate. Kathy Manning made a splash in 2018 running for the US House in CD 13 against incumbent Republican Ted Budd. She earned a respectable 45.54% of the vote. She's back this year in a new district that combines urban Greensboro and urban Winston-Salem.

Just for giggles, I took a look at their Republican opponents, neither of whom have prior experience as public officials or even as candidates. In the right light, and if you squint a little, they look a little like sacrificial lambs, and I normally have a good deal of sympathy for sacrificial lambs, as there are also plenty of those on the Democratic side of the ballot in North Carolina.

Republican Alan Swain in the 2nd CD is a 26-year retired (and he says "disabled") Army veteran. He doesn't have a website that I could find and is limiting himself to a Facebook page. But he answered the Ballotpedia questionnaire sincerely, and though he says he's "personally passionate" about a number of proven conservative bullet-points (pro-2nd Amendment, pro-Right to Life, pro-Voter ID, against sanctuary cities for "illegals"), he does not mention the name Donald Trump anywhere and does not look so terribly ideological. He lists "optimize healthcare" as his number one campaign issue, and he does not appear to include "repeal Obamacare" in that optimization (though what he does include is not entirely specified).

Swain lists a number of founding fathers among those he looks up to, along with Army generals George C. Marshall, George S. Patton, and Dwight W. Eisenhower. The book that best explains his political philosophy -- The Science of Muddling Through, not exactly a Bible for ideologues. The fictional character he'd like to be ... Captain America (and if that doesn't melt your heart a little, you're just too frigidly cynical for your own good!).

Kathy Manning

Republican Lee Haywood is Kathy Manning's opponent in the new 6th CD, and he's forthcoming in the Ballotpedia questionnaire as the species of Tea Party reactionary we might expect in the Age of Trump. Wanna know his political philosophy? Read Atlas Shrugged (yikes). Wanna do something about healthcare in America? Make it entirely market-based (because Big Pharma made plenty off the opioid crisis and could do so again?). "Finish the Wall on our Southern border!" "Eliminate the U.S. Dept. of Education." "Limit the out of control judiciary." "The Constitution is not a living document." You get the drift. The fictional character he'd like to be -- Ironman.

Neither Alan Swain nor Lee Haywood are serious candidates for office, but I had to make sure.

The Most Interesting Congressional Race in North Carolina

Following Tuesday's primary in North Carolina, two Democratic women in CD 2 and 6 look poised to take seats in the US House that have been held by Republicans. Deborah Ross in CD2 absolutely buried her Democratic primary contenders, taking right at 70% of the total vote against three rivals. In CD6, Democrat Kathy Manning took over 48% of the vote against four rivals, beating her nearest competitor,  Rhonda Foxx, by 33,361 votes. The Cook Partisan Index rates both districts as "Likely Democratic" for 2020.

But I'm looking also to CD11 for my 2020 excitement, even though Cook still considers it "Solid Republican" even with all of Asheville restored to the district after being previously gerrymandered out. I'm looking that way because of the Democrat who won Tuesday's primary against four rival candidates, Moe Davis, who doubled the votes of his nearest second-place contender.

I've been following Davis since he burst out into the public soon after his (admittedly late) filing for the office. Morris "Moe" Davis retired from the US Air Force at the rank of colonel and already had a high pre-candidacy national profile. He served two years as Chief Prosecutor of the Military Commissions at Guantanamo Bay and resigned in protest because his superiors in the Air Force Judiciary and the General Counsel of the Department of Defense overruled his decision to disallow evidence obtained via CIA torture. In resigning his position, Davis declared that he wasn't going to take orders from people who think "waterboarding is A-Okay."

In other words, he's a commendable hard-nose. He's got a clear pattern of courting controversy, or at least not skirting around it when it blocks his path of moral certitude (he said the Supreme Court was "meddling" when it chose to review the Military Commissions Act). He's not afraid to defy authority when he thinks he's right, and you've got to admire his fortitude. He's been on all the broadcast and cable news programs as a recognized expert in national security, especially security from terrorists who he thinks should be prosecuted the fair way and not via the CIA torture wheel, but he's also defended Guantanamo as a "humane" detention center (which makes him suspicious to some liberals).

He's a "risk" candidate at a time when too many Democrats want "safe." He endorses universal health care ("whether it is called Medicare For All or any other name"), access to abortion, legalizing marijuana, and confronting income equality. His website is no-nonsense and straight to the kisser, sort of like his military career. He says this:

He stood up to the Bush Administration on torture. He stood up to the Obama Administration to defend the right to free speech. Moe Davis risked his career to do the right thing for our country. That’s the kind of character he will bring to Washington as Congressman in North Carolina’s 11th District.

He was born and grew up in Shelby, NC, studied criminal justice at AppState, graduated in 1980 and earned his Juris Doctor from NC Central in 1983. He immediately joined the Air Force as a JAG officer where he served with distinction.

(Full disclosure. I contributed a little to Davis during the primary and will likely do so again.)


The Republican Moe Davis Will Be Running Against

Madison Cawthorn

There will be a hot run-off on May 12th between front-running (and Mark Meadows endorsed) Lynda Bennett and the very young Madison Cawthorn (born in 1995). There were a dozen Republicans running in the primary (listed and described here), and most of them are mightily pissed off at how Meadows kept his decision not to run for reelection a secret until the day before the filing period ended and then advantaged his wife's best friend Lynda Bennett for the seat.

On Tuesday, Bennett took 22.72% of the vote to Cawthorn's 20.40%, and Cawthorn has already called for the run-off, drawing endorsements from several other trailing candidates. Cawthorn was quoted in the press:

There’s no doubt in my mind the people of Western North Carolina are sick and tired of watching the politicians [Mark Meadows] trying to force their will upon us and every single vote that was cast against Lynda Bennett was a vote against what Mark Meadows has done. Republicans in the race were furious that Meadows endorsed Bennett, a close friend of him and his wife, after telling other candidates he would not endorse anyone in the primary.

The odds are rarely on the side of second-place finishers in run-offs, but in this case the odds are hard to figure because of anger in the district at Meadows' trying to manipulate the outcome.

The Elections of March: US House NC6

A First Look at what is likely a Democratic pickup next November. The winner of this Dems primary will likely be the next congressperson in DeeCee, representing all of Guilford and the most urban part of Forsyth. Greensboro and Winston-Salem -- together at last!

Democrats on the ballot March 3rd:

Bruce Davis, High Point, 62 years old, born in 1957, Baby Boomer, African-American. Perennial candidate: Going back to 2010 and 2012, he tried twice to oust Democratic NC Senator Gladys Robinson from her seat in NCS28. In 2014, he ran unsuccessfully in the primary for the old 6th Congressional District. But in 2016, Davis finally won a race -- in a crowded Democratic primary in the old CD13, he won the privilege to go up against newcomer Republican Ted Budd. Davis lost to Budd in the General, while taking a respectable 156,000 votes to Budd's 199,000. Then in 2019, he ran third in the non-partisan 2019 primary for mayor of High Point.

Rhonda Foxx, Greensboro, 37 years old, born in 1983, Millennial, African-American. First-time candidate. 2008 graduate of George Washington University Law School. Subsequently a rising attorney and congressional staffer in Washington, D.C. Until recently chief of staff to Congresswoman Alma Adams. The founder of the Black Women’s Congressional Alliance, a caucus of 175 black women working on Capitol Hill. BA from UNC-Chapel Hill. (Curiously, for such a political professional, Foxx's web presence is next to nil. An underdeveloped Facebook page. An underdeveloped Twitter account. That's all I find.)

Ed Hanes Jr., Winston-Salem, 47 years old, born in 1973, Gen-X-er, African-American. Represented District 72 in the NCHouse, 2013 to August 2018, when he resigned suddenly while under a cloud for campaign finance violations. He insisted that Winston-Salem city councilman Derwin L. Montgomery be appointed to his unexpired term in the NCHouse.

Kathy Manning, Greensboro, 63 years old, born in 1956, Baby Boomer. Ran unsuccessfully in 2018 against incumbent Republican Ted Budd in the old 13th Congressional District. Philantrophist. Self-described "business-oriented moderate." Demonstrated champion fundraiser.

Derwin L. Montgomery, Winston-Salem, 32 years old, born in 1988, Millennial, African-American. Long-serving member of the Winston-Salem city council (first elected 2009), representing the East Ward. Appointed August 2018 to Ed Hanes' unexpired term in NCHouse (Dist. 72). Won reelection in his own right to the seat in November 2018.

And the Race Is On!

Much happened yesterday in the world of North Carolina politics. The big thing was the court approval of the redistricted maps for the 13 Congressional seats in our state. Which seems to have set off something of a land rush. Deborah Ross announced for the 2nd CD in Wake County (where there are already other strong candidates running). Kathy Manning announced for the 6th CD in Guilford (where there are and will be others competing). And there's a virtual pileup of Democratic candidates in the 11th, which now again includes all of Buncombe County.

We'll be sorting through all the candidate filings in the weeks (and months) ahead with special emphasis on the NC House and Senate districts that got remapped in a more competitive way for Democrats in 2020.

DCCC Announces First Tier of 33 US House Seats Targeted for 2020

Via Twitter yesterday, the DCCC (Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee) announced a first list of congressional House districts that will be targeted in 2020:

AZ-06 -- Dave Schweikert
CA-22 -- Devin Nunes
CA-50 -- Duncan Hunter
CO-03 -- Scott Tipton
FL-15 -- Ross Spano
FL-18 -- Brian Mast
GA-07 -- Rob Woodall
IA-04 -- Steve King
IL-13 -- Rodney Davis
IN-05 - Susan Brooks
KY-06 -- Andy Barr
MI-06 -- Fred Upton
MN-01 -- Jim Hagedorn
MO-02 -- Ann Wagner
NC-02 -- George Holding
NC-09 -- OPEN
NC-13 - Ted Budd
NE-02 -- Don Bacon
NY-01 -- Lee Zeldin
NY-02 -- Peter King
NY-24 -- John Katko
NY-27 -- Chris Collins
OH-01 -- Steve Chabot
PA-01 -- Brian Fitzpatrick
PA-10 -- Scott Perry
PA-16 - Mike Kelly
TX-10 -- Mike McCaul
TX-21 -- Chip Roy
TX-22 -- Pete Olson
TX-23 -- Will Hurd
TX-24 -- Kenny Marchant
TX-31 -- John Carter
WA-03 -- Jaime Herrera Beutler

You'll note the three seats in North Carolina, including NC-9 which still remains undecided these months after the election. Kathy Manning might be favored to try again against incumbent Ted Budd in the NC-13 (given her proven ability to raise money and forgetting for the moment that she was four and a half points behind Budd in the final tally). In the NC-2, we'll hope that Linda Coleman backs off from another try. There are other potential challengers in that district who aren't as shop-worn.

Will the amazing Amy McGrath seek a do-over against Andy Barr in the Ky-6? Will Duncan Hunter (Calif-50) and Chris Collins (NY-27) hold on again, despite their active criminal indictments? And there's white supremacist Steve King in Iowa-4. His 2018 opponent, J.D. Scholten, profiled on this site last year, has already announced that he probably won't try again, but maybe he should.

Surveying Videos of Insurgent Candidates for U.S. Congress

Democrat Kathy Manning, running for US House in the NC-13 against first-term Republican Tedd Budd, has up a professional 30-second ad on health insurance, built on her own experience dealing with a serious medical problem in her family. I've seen it on her Twitter feed but don't find it on her website (or any videos of her). Am I missing them? Why not feature video introductions and policy statements on the website, since she's so good on camera?

Other North Carolina Democratic candidates for Congress also don't have any video of themselves on their websites, and I wonder why -- Dan McCready in the 9th, David Wilson Brown in the 10th, Dr. Kyle Horton in the 7th.

I love DD Adams and I love her introductory video, and no wonder it's front and center on her website. The unspoken contrast to incumbent Republican Virginia Foxx, whose edge always intends to cut and separate, provides what you need to know about having a representative of the people in Washington, as opposed to a stinging hornet.

Phillip Price, running against house wrecker Mark Meadows in the 11th, emphasizes his blue collar work ethic. Frank McNeill, running in the 8th against George Holding, effectively emphasizes a work ethic than depends heavily on working together -- and exercising kindness (with an implied contrast to the nastiness of Twitterman). For McNeill's district he felt obliged to mention religion three times in two minutes.

Linda Coleman, running in the 2nd, has a very standard sort of bland presentation and message -- "I'm running for us, not us versus them" -- which maybe somebody finds compelling. But surely the campaign could find more than five people to stand behind her at the finale. Better maybe no people than just five, and those fixed smiles distract the viewer.

Democrat Ryan Watts is running in the NC-6 US House District against preacher Mark Walker,  and he's mounted an energetic and accomplished campaign. His introductory video is a head-on sales pitch and perhaps inadvertently highlights his noticeable youth. He's 29 but could pass for 19. But he's going for it and that's something to admire.


NOTE: I didn't go looking at video of the incumbent Democratic reps in Congress, David Price, Alma Adams, and G.K. Butterfield. Maybe another day!

You May Be Seeing an RNC Operative in Your Neighborhood Soon

A Friday headline to go with your second breakfast: "GOP breaks the glass as House outlook darkens; The party is scrambling to shore up seats deep in Trump country, where incumbents won by double digits in 2016."

And this paragraph, deep in the article:

The RNC [Republican Nat'l Committee] has established an elaborate field program in North Carolina, where [George] Holden, [Ted] Budd, and [Robert] Pittenger are running — and where there are otherwise few voter turnout mechanisms in place. With North Carolina in a “blue moon” election cycle, meaning that there are no statewide races on the ballot other than Supreme Court contests, the committee has dispatched six full-time field staffers to the state.

Presumably those hotshot Republican operatives will be fixating on Congressional districts 2, 9, and 13, where Holden, Budd, and Pittenger have been dragging their heels with fundraising, while their likely Democratic opponents (Ken Romley, Dan McCready, and Kathy Manning, respectively) have had no trouble attracting enthusiastic support.

(Yes, I'm aware that Romley, McCready, and Manning all have Democratic primary opponents, and anything might happen, but Romley, McCready, and Manning are far ahead in fundraising and national recognition. Just saying.)

Anyway, where will the RNC station those six full-time field staffers? In urban centers, that the Republicans in the NC General Assembly have been shitting on for five long years?

Democrat Kathy Manning, Making Waves in the 13th CD

A few days ago, Jonathan Kappler tweeted about what's been happening in the 13th Congressional District of North Carolina:

Jonathan Kappler

‏ @jonathankappler 22h22 hours ago

Rep Ted Budd (R-#NC13) raised $183k in Q4, has $300k on hand. Kathy Manning (D) raised $564k, has $522k on hand. On paper, while GOP-leaning, this district is the most competitive of NC's 13 districts. Also keep in mind Rep Budd is serving in his 1st term. #NCPOL

The 13th Congressional District has had a checkered past. First created in 2003, the seat was Democrat-friendly and occupied by Congressman Brad Miller until 2012. With reapportionment after 2010 and with Republicans in control of the General Assembly, the 13th was redrawn to get rid of Miller, and it worked. He decided not to run again in 2012. Republican George Holding did and won

Ted Budd campaign photo

the seat and held it through the election of 2016, when court-ordered redistricting again changed the district's contours. It was won in 2016 by Ted Budd with 56% of the vote. We assume, after all the court action of recent months, that Budd's district remains basically the same one he won in 2016: It includes parts of Greensboro as well as High Point and Statesville. His district offices are in Advance (his home town) and Mooresville.

Read more here: http://www.newsobserver.com/news/politics-government/article130320144.html#storylink=

First-term congressmen of either party usually attract hungry predators looking to pick off the young, and the DCCC (Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee) had targeted Budd even before he got the first splinter from his seat. Budd is 46. He was born in Winston-Salem but mainly grew up on a farm in Davie County. According to Taft Wireback, "he hails from a wealthy family that built its fortune in the janitorial and landscaping business." He attended and graduated from AppState. He owns a gun store and a shooting range and likes to pose with big hardware. As soon as he got to Capitol Hill, he joined the Freedom Caucus, and his votes have reflected those extreme conservative positions. He was an avid supporter of ending Obamacare, and he's a proponent of home-schooling. 

Democrat Kathy Manning is most frequently described as a "philanthropist." She was the chief fundraiser for the $78 million Steven Tanger Center for the Performing Arts that was dedicated in

April 2017 in Greensboro. She was the first woman to chair the board of the Jewish Federations of North America. “I’m a business-oriented moderate who believes we need to do whatever we can to provide affordable health care and the good education that will get people prepared for the jobs of the future,” said Manning, 60, who worked for years as an immigration lawyer but no longer is in practice.

Manning has criticized Budd for his support of the newly enacted Republican tax bill because of provisions that "she said would help the wealthy and big corporations, but hurt the average person in such ways as denying teachers the ability to deduct the cost of school supplies they buy for the classroom. She also criticized his support for letting banks charge retailers higher 'swipe' fees when customers use credit or debit cards."

Manning is married to Greensboro businessman Randall Kaplan, who owns Elm Street Center downtown and is planning to build a major hotel on the site. The couple has three grown children. 

Budd has been quick to call her "Nancy Pelosi’s hand-picked candidate" and a "far-left" woman (gasp!) pushing a "hard-core liberal agenda." Blah blah blah. With a campaign like that, Budd may find that energizing the base in 2018 is a harder lift, especially with an assault rifle in your hand.