After the Close of NC Candidate Filing -- The Smoke Clears, the Dust Settles, And So Does the Dandruff

 

If 2018 was "the Blue Wave" year, 2022 might be the blue-in-the-face year. Whereas every state House and Senate race had a Democratic contender in 2018, this year some 28 House seats (out of 120) have no Democratic candidates, and it's worse in the Senate, where 13 seats (out of 50) will plop into Phil Berger's pocket uncontested by Dems. If you love math (as I don't), that's 23% of the House and 26% of the Senate, where the Democrats aren't even playing.

To be fair here, the Republicans fell down too in candidate recruitment, but only in 9 House Districts, where no Republican thought it a good use of time and treasure to challenge incumbent Democrats Allison Dahle, Vernetta Alston, Zach Hawkins, Abe Jones, Pricey Harrison, and John Autry. Three other open House seats with no Republican on the ballot have 2- and 3-way primaries among Democrats to take an otherwise safe Democratic seat -- Cumberland (Dist. 44), Orange (Verla Insko's HD56), and Forsyth (HD71). Total of 13 House seats where no Republican filed.

NC House Districts. For a larger map, go here.

(For sure, I'll be taking a closer look at those three Democratic primaries. Later.)

On the Senate side, Republicans failed to recruit anyone to challenge Democratic incumbent Mujtaba Mohammed in Dist. 38 (Mecklenberg), but that is the only Senate race conceded to the Dems. All others have Republican candidates.

NC Senate Districts. For a larger map, go here.

Democrats failed to show too often, and when they did show, they sometimes piled on in districts where incumbent Democrats were already running for reelection. Debilitating primaries. Why is Kirk DeViere, elected in the 2018 Blue Wave, now facing not one but two fellow Democrats? What did Kirk DeViere do to earn this brutality? Same for Graig Meyer in the 23rd SD and Julie Mayfield in the 49th, down in Buncombe. What did they do to deserve a primary in a year Democrats are already stressed and stretched?

(I'm focussing on NC House and Senate in this post, but I also noticed a regrettable 5-way primary for US Congress in the NC13, where out of the blue and on the last day of filing, former state Senator Sam Searcy added his name to the ballot. Searcy was first elected to the NC Senate by a very narrow margin in 2018, defeating incumbent Republican Tamara Barringer (who's now on the NC Supreme Court). Blue Wave, indeed. Searcy was reelected in 2020, served a little over 30 minutes (almost literally true) and then resigned "in order to take a new position serving the people of NC, which he did not specify" [Wikipedia]. And so far as I know, never has specified. That broken promise reminded me that before Searcy decided to ran against Barringer in 2018, he had been all in to run for Congress against incumbent Republican George Holding. Then without warning, he dropped that race and pursued the NC Senate seat instead. Seems kinda flighty, that guy.)

FOOTNOTE

Senate districts, no Dem: #1, #2, #6, #8, #9, #26 (Phil Berger), #31, #35, #36, #37, #43, #44, #47

House districts, no Dem: #1, #3, #7, #10, #16, #19, #22, #46, #52, #55, #67, #68, #75, #76, #77, #79, #83, #86, #89, #90, #91, #96, #97, #108, #110, #111, #113, #120

The Greatest Moment From SOTU2019

Nancy Pelosi, dog-walking a very bad pooch.

And a look that will be on T-shirts before the close of business today!

Did you notice how often Twitterman turned to his left, checking out in his peripheral vision whether Nancy Pelosi was reacting correctly to his applause lines? Here's what he said that occasioned this memorable moment in SOTU history:

“We must reject the politics of revenge, resistance and retribution and embrace the boundless potential of cooperation, compromise and the common good.”

At the moment captured by the photo, Trump is actually mouthing "Thank you!" to Pelosi, completely missing the subtext of her mockery.

Why mock that line in his speech? 

Because this is "a president who proudly retaliates against his enemies, taunts his political foes with nicknames and considers himself one of the world’s great counter-punchers" (Philip Rucker et al.).  Just yesterday, during a lunch with major print and broadcast journalists, Trump had "assailed Senate Minority Leader Charles E. Schumer (D-N.Y.) as a 'nasty son of a bitch,' ridiculed former vice president Joe Biden as 'dumb' for his history of gaffes, and accused Virginia Gov. Ralph Northam (D) of 'choking like a dog' ” (Rucker).

Last night, it was Teleprompter Trump, who reads high-minded, normal-sounding lines like he's reading a hostage statement, while we all know the real man. Nancy Pelosi is drawing a bead.

DJT never appreciates irony though he's a great creator of it.

Republicans Back Up To Hit That Iceberg Again

Here's a statistic from November 6: Republicans lost the popular vote by more raw votes than any time in history. But because of gerrymandering, many of those votes for Democrats piled up disproportionately in just 40 congressional districts, rather than in 80 congressional districts.

There's additional hopeful news for Democrats on top of that election: Congressional Republicans are noticeably uninterested in examining why they lost so decisively. “There has been close to no introspection in the G.O.P. conference and really no coming to grips with the shifting demographics that get to why we lost those seats,” said Representative Elise Stefanik, a losing upstate New York Republican. “I’m very frustrated and I know other members are frustrated.”

The GOP leadership is afraid to be introspective because eventually one name and one reason is going to float to the top of their consideration -- DJT and "Mr. Trump’s deep toxicity among moderate voters, especially women."

Rep. Ryan Costello of Pennsylvania, who retired rather than run again (and whose seat flipped to the Dems), spoke some truth: “It’s clear to me why we lost 40 seats; it was a referendum on the president, but that’s an extremely difficult proclamation for people to make because if they were to say that, they’d get the wrath of the president.”

There you have it. There won't be any out-loud soul-searching because these guys are afraid of Twitterman. Better to eat a Danish and drink a cup of acid, because the next two years are going to be full of peptic upset anyway.

"What alarms Republicans even more is that the possibility that disgust with Mr. Trump will be uncurable in 2020, when he will most likely be on the ballot, no matter the party’s agenda .... This sort of cold-eyed assessment has Republicans already expressing concern that more of their colleagues may retire rather than run again in 2020 — and that recruiting top-flight candidates could prove even more challenging going into the next campaign."

So we're starting our short-timer's countdown calendar now: How many Republican members of Congress will choose to retire rather than run for reelection in 2020?

On the Republican Right: Blame Anyone But Don't Blame Trump

It's sometimes instructive to watch how a losing political party rationalizes its losses, especially when said political party cannot or will not acknowledge what is actually wrong.

On the Tea Party right of the North Carolina GOP, some are blaming NC GOP Executive Director Dallas Woodhouse and Party Chair Robin Hayes for the loss of their veto-proof majorities in both the NC House and the NC Senate. Those party leaders are accused mainly of being wusses in the pursuit of hard-right conservative goals. In other words, they're being criticized for being insufficiently Trumpian.

Interesting, since there's plenty of statistical evidence that the NC GOP lost almost every incumbent House and Senate member in Mecklenburg County (for example) because of the souring on Trump of the suburbs. No one on the Republican side admits that. Perhaps that thought is simply impossible to think (which is the definition of how hegemony works).

Fine by us.

Meanwhile, the prime mover of those suburban voters away from the GOP said on Thanksgiving that he personally was thankful "for having made a tremendous difference in this country.” “I’ve made a tremendous difference in the country," he repeated, because he's a single-shot repeating rifle, and I actually couldn't agree more. He's revived the progressive movement, reenergized the Democratic Party, inspired hundreds of first-time candidates, and caused the loss of the NC GOP's veto-proof majority in the NC General Assembly.

The longer their activists are in denial, the better.

What If Hillary Had Won in 2016?

Can you imagine what this election would have been like if it was Hillary's midterm instead of Twitterman's? Slaughter of Democrats, right and left. More Senate seats lost. Governor's mansions? Fuggitaboutit! Because Republicans would have spent the last two years building their cudgels to smite the Devil, and they would have had some form of Trump leading them, aided by Fox News with funny memes about That Bitch in the White House designed for the same voters who wore MAGA hats in 2016 and longed for an American strongman. Instead of the strongman, they got that C-word they hate so much. 

You think Vladimir and his friends wouldn't have been co-producing the attack, heightening the hatred, hedging their investment in Trump with Internet manipulation? Wouldn't the Russkies want Trump active and vital for another presidential run? They'd keep his balloon inflated with constant flattery. Meanwhile, with Hillary taking a beating, nervous Democrats with no devotion to the Clintons would have stayed home on November 6th, and the wreckage would have surpassed 2010.

At least IMHO. I've thought about it a lot. I thought about the future of a Clinton presidency way back in the early Fall of 2016, when she was supposedly winning. Because I am a political animal and I want the progressive movement to thrive, I thought about the 2018 midterms with Hillary in DeeCee. The thought gave me the shudders.

(Full disclosure: I was a Bernie Sanders Democrat. I never felt any fire for Hillary. I despise triangulation.)

"It might actually be best for the Progressive movement if Clinton loses," I thought, "because with that man Trump in the White House, the Democratic Party would be forced into radical evolution and rebirth." I was and am a political animal, and I very much wanted to see the Democratic Party mean something and live, not die from self-inflicted wounds, or smothered in its sleep by Wall Street cash. Any political animal might foresee how Trump as president could help rebuild the grassroots of the Democratic Party, much withered from 2010 and stonecold brittle in some broad precincts. Trump stood to do exactly what he did: poke awake a sleeping opposition, a resistance that would find its voice and fight back against our mutual brush with strongman government, and bring many good people to their senses. 

I never uttered that thought to a soul. Uttering it now is probably folly, but it's a slow news Friday. 

With Trump, the Democratic Party, in all its chaotic and glorious variety, is back strong. The best candidates -- at all levels -- with the ability to raise small-dollar donations and compete as champions of community values, standing for simple justice, and fairness, and basic human decency. Those first-time candidates this year were riding the wave of a rising tide of activism especially among people who had never been involved before or had not been encouraged to poke their heads up. You can't create that kind of psychic energy out of boredom or complacency. The bravery and the personal commitment to sacrifice isn't birthed by 30-second TV spots. You can't purchase it with Soros money, chumps. That energy came from a mass reaction to human baseness.

Part of the Blue Tide: Ruth Buffalo in North Dakota

Ruth Buffalo

After Heidi Heitcamp won her election to the US Senate in 2012 with a margin of just 3,000 votes, the North Dakota legislature swung into action and targeted Native Americans for voter suppression, passing a voter ID bill which required street addresses to vote. Indian reservations in North Dakota do not have street addresses. Republican North Dakota House member Randy Boehning sponsored that bill along with three others meant to make voting more difficult.

Randy Boehning lost his House seat on November 6th to Ruth Buffalo, a member of the affiliated Mandan, Hidatsa, and Arikara Nation. Poetic justice, y'all! Especially as Buffalo won her seat in a non-Indian district off the reservation in the Fargo area.

Ruth is an accomplished public health professional with three master's degrees and a vision for making health care more accessible for all the citizens of North Dakota. She had run for public office before in 2016 when she mounted a campaign for Commissioner of Insurance.

Republicans, even before Twitterman took the White House, had relentlessly targeted non-white citizens with voter suppression (and not just in North Carolina). That spite extended also to the LGBTQ community and all the hated "multiculturalism" that appeared to be dismantling white supremacy the way those UNC students toppled a Confederate statue. For the last several months, Republicans -- led by DJT -- based their entire election pitch on the threat of a non-white invasion of the southern border. They wanted us to know that's who they are -- people who fear other people of color.

The Blue Wave last week was partly a rejection of that Republican stonewalling of our national culture, let alone the halls of power. All sorts of weird citizens will now be part of American self-governance. And in Ruth Buffalo's case, it was a majority white population that elected her and rejected Trumpism.

New Hope in the US House: Ben McAdams from Utah

I lived in Salt Lake City for four years and first got involved in Democratic Party organizing there, canvassing door-to-door for Eugene McCarthy during his 1968 insurgency against President Lyndon Johnson. I was bit by the bug and never recovered.

So I'm interested in that solidly red state, especially when it shows some blue cracks, which usually open up around the capitol city. The 4th Congressional District stretches south of Salt Lake City through prosperous suburbs but also takes in some deeply conservative enclaves.

As of yesterday, Democrat Ben McAdams is leading incumbent Republican Mia Love by 4,906 votes, with roughly 55,000 mail-in and provisional ballots still left to be counted in Salt Lake County and 72,000 ballots in Utah County (though some -- many? -- of those ballots actually belong to other congressional districts).

The race still hasn't been called.

Ben McAdams is a lawyer who served in the state senate before becoming mayor of Salt Lake County in 2013. He's a Mormon and a moderate, which means he may sometimes be a no vote on abortion rights (though he voted against a state law which would allow medical personnel to refuse to perform abortions on moral grounds and he voted against extending the waiting period for an abortion, so his record is mixed on that subject).

McAdams supports same-sex marriage. After the Supreme Court ruled in Obergefell v. Hodges that same-sex couples have the right to marry in the United States, McAdams said, "This decision enshrines what I’ve long believed — that all families should be treated equally under the law."

He's on record opposing the repeal of the Affordable Care Act and has also called on Congress to renew the Children’s Health Insurance Program (CHIP) after its funding lapsed in September 2017. For a Utah Democrat, he bravely opposed the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017, citing the expected $1.5 trillion increase of the national debt over 10 years. He said it clearly favored the "wealthy over the middle class."

Incumbent Republican Mia Love was until Tuesday at least a rising star in the national Republican Party. As an aspiring Utah politician (she had converted to the Mormon church), she was given a prominent speaking slot at the 2012 Republican National Convention, and then she ran for and won the 4th District in 2014, becoming the first black woman Republican in Congress. She was reelected in 2016 while keeping her distance from Donald Trump, who's toxic among some Utah Mormons.

Love ran a relentlessly negative campaign against Ben McAdams, but screaming "liberal liberal liberal" over and over has ceased to work with an educated electorate. And DJT dissed her very publicly on Wednesday, saying he'd never gotten any love from Mia Love, so good riddance to her.

The North Carolina "Seven": New Black Sheriffs Elected Last Tuesday

Paula Dance, Pitt County

Paula Dance, Pitt County, became the first African-American female sheriff in the state of North Carolina and only the fifth in the entire country. She was already a major in the sheriff's office, running for an open seat. She has 28 years of law enforcement experience, 26 of those in the Pitt County department.

Quentin Miller, Buncombe County, 25-year veteran of the Asheville Police Dept., won with over 61% of the vote against both a Republican and a Libertarian. It too was an open seat, and the Libertarian had been jailed on a stalking charge in September.

Ennis Wright, Cumberland County, was already serving as an appointed sheriff following the retirement of a fellow Democrat. Wright won on Tuesday with more than 63% of the vote.

Bobby Kimbrough Jr., Forsyth County, defeated 5-term Republican incumbent Bill Schatzman with 53% of the vote. Kimbrough is a retired agent with the Drug Enforcement Administration. “People are ready for change,” Kimbrough said. “This race wasn’t about me, and it wasn’t about him [Schatzman]. It’s about building some bridges.”

Gerald Baker, Wake County, "in a stunning upset," defeated 4-term Sheriff Donnie Harrison. The 55-45 winning margin made it doubly stunning. Baker had worked for the Wake County Sheriff's Department for 28 years, 15 of those under Harrison. Harrison had partnered in and defended a U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement program that meant transferring people to federal custody who have been arrested and were believed to be in the U.S. illegally. Baker was critical of the program.

Danny Rogers, in Guilford County, ended the 24-year reign of Sheriff B J Barnes, a politician so powerful he was considered unbeatable. (That was Monday. Wednesday, people were thinking otherwise.) Rogers took 53% of the vote.

Clarence Birkhead, in Durham County, had virtually won the office back in the primary, taking some 69% of the vote against an unpopular white incumbent, and faced only write-in votes last Tuesday.

New Hope in the US House: 3 Women From Virginia

Personal Note
We'd like to meet the chief political minds behind these winning campaigns. Call us.

Jennifer Wexton in Virginia's 10th Congressional District beat incumbent Republican Barbara Comstock with over 56% of the vote.

Wexton had been a well known Virginia state senator from Loudoun County, and she won the June congressional primary against a slew of Democratic opponents. She was an immediate favorite to knock out Comstock, widely considered the most vulnerable Republican in the nation. Wexton ran her campaign not so much as an insurgent but as a frontrunner protecting a huge lead. (Trump is sufficiently unpopular in her northern Virginia district. And she wasn't shy about being the resistance. "Change Is Coming" was one of her slogans.)

Loudoun County was jet fuel for Wexton. It's both the heart of and the population center for the 10th District. Government professionals, non-profit professionals, local business entrepreneurs, suburban Republican women. The 10th hasn't voted for a Democrat in over 60 years. But Wexton was already known and respected as a state senator. She won her seat in a special election in 2014 and was reelected in 2015 with over 56% of the vote. She had earned distinction as a lawyer and a prosecutor -- an assistant Commonwealth’s Attorney. Plus she'd done a ton of pro bono legal work, served as president of the local bar, and was appointed a special judge in Loudoun District Court.

Perhaps a new political icon -- Suburban Professional Woman.

Abigail Spanberger in Virginia's 7th Congressional District beat incumbent Tea Party Republican Dave Brat by a 6,500-vote margin. A Libertarian candidate got just over 1% of the vote.

Spanberger grew up in Short Pump, Virginia, in Henrico County. She attended J.R. Tucker High School’s Spanish immersion program, served as a Senate Page for US Senator Chuck Robb, and graduated from the University of Virginia. After college, she moved to Germany and earned her MBA from a dual-degree German-American program. She was picking up important languages for espionage.

Before the CIA, she was a federal law enforcement officer working narcotics and money laundering cases with the US Postal Inspection Service. With her background speaking multiple languages, Abigail joined the CIA as an Operations Officer (entering the clandestine service and specializing in counter-terrorism). She traveled and lived abroad collecting intelligence, managing assets, and overseeing high-profile programs. In 2014, she left government service to begin a career in the private sector with EAB, a higher education consulting firm. At EAB Spanberger has helped colleges and universities create diverse student bodies, increase graduation rates, and break down financial barriers to higher education.

Good introductory video:

Elaine Luria in Virginia's 2nd Congressional District beat incumbent Republican Scott Taylor with a little over 51% of the vote. The 2nd District contains the HDQs of Pat Robertson's Christian Broadcasting Network.

Michael Tackett profiled Luria way back last January in the New York Times (along with two other women veterans of the Armed Forces running for high office in 2018):

Luria joined the Navy at the age of 17, eventually "majoring in" surface warfare at the Naval Academy. She rose to commander rank and served for 20 years before retiring.

"Luria said that she felt the pull to run for office after Mr. Trump’s election, and that her husband quit his job to help take over household duties so she could focus on campaigning .... she had earned a black belt in taekwondo, passed all the required endurance tests and flourished in the classroom .... After the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks, she said, she felt compelled to stay in the Navy. She had a letter of resignation stuck in her desk, but never submitted it." 

Luria had the backing of the DCCC (Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee) and ran a disciplined and (judging from my own in-box) relentless campaign.


But There Were Also 3 Heart-Breaks in Virginia

Organic farmer and writer Anthony Flaccavento in the 7th, whom I profiled back in July.

Investigative journalist Leslie Cockburn in the 5th, whom I profiled back on May 30th.

"Bold progressive activist" Jennifer Lewis in the 6th, whom I profiled in July.

Vote outcomes: Flaccavento didn't come close, Cockburn got almost 47%, and Lewis got 40%.

 Flaccavento's loss probably means it'll take years before another Democrat attempts it (I at least hear that from a political activist in the 7th). Cockburn (or someone like her) could possibly win it next time. And Lewis has something to build on.

New Hope in the US House: Joe Cunningham from South Carolina

Among the many nationwide Congressional races that animated my political corpuscles and my hope for surviving Trump ... Democrat Joe Cunningham's campaign in the 1st Congressional District of South Carolina, a coastal district that includes Charleston. Cunningham won the seat on Tuesday with 50.71% of the vote. I'm proud to say that I first took note of Joe Cunningham's arrival as a brand-new candidate back in February 2018, and I kept up with what looked to me like a winning and newly minted politician.





He's the first Democrat elected in this district in over 30 years. This was the seat once held by Tim Scott, the black Republican who went on to the US Senate, and by Mark Sanford, who went on a hike ... actually, two hikes, the second one being his loss in the Republican primary last spring after he dared to criticize Twitterman.

Katie Arrington, the Trump-endorsed woman who won that primary, had the Trump laying-on-of-hands during the final days of the campaign (see photo below), and her defeat is being called an "upset" by South Carolina political operatives. Arrington chose to ape Trump in talking about the "immigrant invasion" of our Southern border, and that didn't earn her any enthusiasm in the 1st District. She also supported Trump's plan to allow more offshore oil and gas exploration, something the coastal tourism industry hates and dreads.

Donald Junior stumped for Arrington on election eve, and The Donald Himself recorded a robocall for her ... more evidence that lashing yourself to Trump's axle in a urban/suburban district might not be good for your political health.

Junior with losing candidate Katie Arrington,
Nov. 5, 2018

New Hope in the US House: Sharice Davids from Kansas

New Congresswoman Sharice Davids

The Kansas 3rd Congressional District elected a lesbian, native American, civil rights lawyer to Congress. Oh yeah, and she's also a mixed martial arts fighter. Sharice Davids tried out for Season 20 of The Ultimate Fighting Championship, a pay-for-view venue with a big following. She didn't quite make the cut, but she's been a successful professional fighter since 2013. Davids is a member of the Ho-Chunk Nation and graduated from Cornell University. And she's going to Congress.

Say what? A muscle-woman in the marble halls?

She's also the first openly gay member of Congress elected from Kansas, and she joins Debra Haaland of the New Mexico 1st District as the first ever Native American women elected to Congress.

The Kansas 3rd District is suburban Kansas City. Hillary Clinton carried the district in 2016, but Republican incumbent Tea Party Congressman Kevin Yoder held on too, even though Republican women in the suburbs (even in Kansas) had begun to get a stomachful of Twitterman. This year Yoder earned the full Trump endorsement -- tweets and in-person campaigning, which probably helped doom him. When reporters questioned Yoder during October 2016 about "grab 'em by the pussy," Yoder couldn't think of one critical thing to say about DJT. He had also voted very publicly to repeal the Affordable Care Act many times, but by 2018 that vindictiveness toward the poor and sick just seemed unnecessarily cruel. That apparent lack of moral compass bit Yoder in the pants.

Yoder served eight years in the Kansas state legislature before getting elected to Congress in the 2010 Republican wave. By this year, he had gotten some rank, especially on the Homeland Security subcommittee. That's over now.

If the woman fighter who beat him -- with over 53% of the vote, mind you -- can just develop some policy chops to go with her karate chops, she might become the kind of new voice we need in Congress.

FOOTNOTE: Who Helped Get Sharice Davids Elected?

In the 2016 campaign, Chris Gentry worked as a field team member for the Watauga County Democratic Party's Coordinated Campaign. He was a ball of fire. In the 2018 campaign just past, Chris Gentry worked for the Progressive Turnout Project (PTP), an "independent expenditure" group headquartered in Chicago. This is their self-description:

Progressive Turnout Project is a grassroots-funded organization with a single mission: get Democrats to the polls. We design, test, and execute specialized voter turnout programs targeting inconsistent Democratic voters in the most competitive districts in the country. In 2017, our trained teams flipped 10 Republican House of Delegate districts in Virginia. In 2018, we’ll bring that same strategy to competitive districts across the country.

The key is recruitment and training, which means boots on the ground for direct voter contact. PTP raised the money to target many flippable districts this year (I count 24 district field organizers on the PTP website), and they hired experienced field managers willing to live and work in those targeted districts. Chris Gentry earned the privilege of running the Kansas 3rd. He was working totally independent from the Sharice Davids campaign (the PTP is one of those "Not Authorized by Any Candidate" groups that continue to proliferate since 2016). Chris stayed on the ground for months in Kansas, organized troops to knock doors and register voters, and he obviously helped sweep the table.

Watauga County salutes an alumnus of local campaigning, Chris Gentry!

Holy Flippity Flip, Batman!

What happened in these NC House and Senate races that we were watching:

NC HOUSE -- Districts that flipped are highlighted. NOTE: The race in District 103 (Rachel Hunt) is so close that provisional ballots could still win it for Democrats. Bottomline: Republican super-majority has been decisively broken

Winner Christy Clark in NCHD98

Gail Young in NC House District 83 -- incumbent Larry Pittman beat her 52.95% v. 47.05% -- impressive showing by Gail Young

*Christy Clark in Dist. 98 -- is ahead of incumbent John Bradford by 333 votes. Provisional ballots and mail-in absentees still to be counted

Joe Fowler in Dist. 76 -- was easily beaten by incumbent Harry Warren

Steven Buccini in Dist. 59 -- beaten by incumbent Jon Hardister, who took almost 57% of the vote

Dan Besse in Dist. 75 -- made a respectable showing (almost 47%) against incumbent Donny Lambeth

Marcia Morgan in Dist. 19 -- incumbent Ted Davis beat her by less than a thousand votes and couldn't reach 50% of the total because of a Libertarian in the race

*Terence Everitt in Dist. 35 -- beat Republican veteran incumbent Chris Malone with 51% of the vote

*Brandon Lofton in Dist. 104 -- won this district with 51.63% of the vote

Rhonda Schandevel in Dist. 118 -- lost her rematch with incumbent Michele Presnell

*Joe Sam Queen in Dist. 119 -- took his old seat back from Republican Mike Clampitt

Lowell Simon in Dist. 52 -- was easily defeated by the Republican

*Ashton Clemmons in Dist. 57 -- buried her Republican opponent with 67.53% of the vote

Leslie Cohen in Dist. 20 -- was edged out by a slim margin of 2,000 votes

*Kandie Smith in Dist. 8 -- buried her Republican opponent

Sam Edney in Dist. 113 -- didn't come close against the Republican

Rick Foulke in Dist. 68 -- didn't come close against the Republican

Dan Whitten in Dist. 15 -- was buried by his Republican opponent

Darryl Moss in Dist. 2 -- easily beaten

Linda Bennett in Dist. 26 -- easily beaten

Erica McAdoo in Dist. 63 -- heartbreaker! She's 295 votes behind Republican Stephen Ross

Wendy B. Sellers in Dist. 80 -- buried by the Republican

*Wesley Harris in Dist. 105 -- won, taking over 52% of the vote

Susan Maxon in Dist. 109 -- easily beaten by the Republican. Interestingly, write-in candidates took 77 votes

Albeiro Florez in Dist. 45 -- only took 41.54% of the vote

Ron Wesson in Dist. 1 -- took 46.88% of the vote against the Republican

Kim Bost in Dist. 96 -- attractive candidate in an impossible district

*Zack Hawkins in Dist. 31 -- a foregone conclusion ... took 80.99% of the vote. This is not a flip, as the seat was held by Democrat Mickey Michaux for years 

*James D. Gailliard in Dist. 25 -- won this district with 51.43% of the vote

Tess Judge in Dist. 6 -- lost in her second try for this seat

*Sydney Batch in Dist. 37 -- won against the Republican with 49.76% of the vote, with a Libertarian also in the race

Rachel Hunt in Dist. 103 -- is 52 votes behind Republican Bill Brawley. Provisional ballots still to be counted. It ain't over!

*Julie von Haefen in Dist. 36 -- is 687 votes against Republican powerhouse Nelson Dollar

*Ray Russell in Dist. 93 -- edged out incumbent Jonathan Jordan with 52% of the vote

Barbara Yates-Lockamy in Dist. 46 -- hardly ran a campaign and lost badly

David Brinkley in Dist. 111 -- wouldn't run against incumbent Tim Moore's corruption and lost badly

Aimy Steele in Dist. 82 -- took a respectable 47% of the vote against Republican Linda Johnson

Terri LeGrand in Dist. 74 -- another heartbreaker ... lost to Republican Debra Conrad with 45.36% of the vote

Martha Shafer in Dist. 62 -- beaten

NCSENATE -- Republican super-majority has been broken

Winner Natasha Marcus
in NCSD 41

*Natasha Marcus Dist. 41 -- easily beat Republican incumbent Jeff Tarte

Mack Paul in NC Senate District 18 -- barely beaten by Republican John Alexander, who took 49.85% of the vote in a three-way race

*Harper Peterson in Dist. 9 -- is ahead of his Republican opponent by a mere 36 votes, with many provisional ballots still to be counted. A Libertarian candidate appears to have taken important votes from the Republican

Ginger Garner in Dist. 2 -- attractive candidate, beaten badly

Helen Probst Mills in Dist. 25 -- lost to incumbent Republican Tom McInnis

Ric Vandett in Dist 42 -- lost badly in a really difficult district

Caroline Walker in Dist. 35 -- another really attractive candidate who couldn't make a go against the Republican running for an open seat

*Sam Searcy in Dist. 17 -- took 50.44% of the vote against incumbent Republican Tamara Barringer

Cheraton Love in Dist. 29 -- was buried by the Republican

Bobby Kuppers in Dist. 50 -- buried

Jen Mangrum in Dist. 30 -- our greatest heartbreak ... she lost to bully Phil Berger but was an inspiration to thousands

*Wiley Nickel in Dist. 16 -- won easily in a three-way race

J. D. Wooten in Dist. 24 -- lost, but took a respectable 46% of the vote

*Michael K. Garrett in Dist. 27 -- is ahead of the poisonous Republican Trudy Wade by 763 votes

*Kirk DeViere in Dist. 19 -- won against Wesley Meredith, with 50.26% of the vote

*Mujtaba Mohammed in Dist. 38 -- buried his Republican opponent with over 81% of the vote. This is not a flip, as the district was previously held by a Democrat, whom Mujtaba defeated in the primary

A Note on Gerrymandering and the Current Unconstitutional District Lines in North Carolina

You don't think it makes a difference who draws the district lines?

Yesterday for the NC House -- GOP won 55% of the seats but only 48.5% of the votes. Democrats took 50.9% of the votes but won only 45% of the seats.

For the NC Senate -- GOP won 58% of the seats with only 50.5% of the votes. Democrats took 48.6% of the votes but won only 42% of the seats.

Statistics from Jonathan Kappler

Election Finals in Watauga

The Early Vote numbers came in first, and they were pretty astounding ... with Ray Russell leading Jonathan Jordan in Watauga almost 65% to 35% ... with D D Adams leading Virginia Foxx 63% to 37% ... with every other Democrat in contested races way out front in Watauga (at least).

Biggest news of the night ... Ray Russell wins the NC House seat, District 93.

In Watauga, looks like a Democratic sweep.

More granular detail tomorrow when I can go deep into the North Carolina numbers.

There's Something Happening Here...

15,517 voted early in Watauga County through Saturday, November 3 (that number includes mail-in absentee ballots and 713 same-day registrations, some of which may end up not counting)

Party breakdown (excluding the same-days): 

35% D
28% R
37% U

For comparison, 7,865 voted early in Watauga County in the last mid-term election of 2014. In 2014, the total vote in Watauga, including Early and Election Day = 17,197.

In other words, O my brethren, the Early Vote in Watauga in 2018 is just 1,680 votes shy of the total turnout in 2014.

FWIW.

For more comparison, here are state-wide numbers (courtesy Jonathan Kappler):

This was the scene yesterday morning at the Early Voting station on the campus of NC State University in Raleigh:

It's the Data, Stupid!

If you read the daily polls ... you're nuts. I avert my gaze, as soon as I know I'm about to see somebody's guess based on telephone calls to 400, 800, 1,200 randomly selected voters, whether they be "likely" voters, merely "registered" voters, or some other ad hoc group of goddamned voters. I don't believe those polls, and being altogether human, I'm charmed by the ones that make my side look good-to-go, and it's a terrible trap to begin to believe. Remember Clinton v. Trump, October 2016? So it's best to avert the gaze altogether.

But I do pay attention to Early Voting trends, especially partisan turnout percentages and comparisons to 2014. Generally speaking for 2018: Mid-term turnout is up over 2014 (but not up over 2016, a presidential year). Statewide, partisan edge goes to Democrats, with 43% of the Early Voting turnout through Oct. 30:

Old North State Politics

Locally in Watauga County, Republicans are doing even worse: out of 11,648 total votes, 37% D, 27% R, and 37% U.

Caution: We've learned through the history of Early Voting in NC that Republicans have always underutilized the option. They preferred to come out on election day, sometimes in waves that overwhelmed the Democrats ... like in 1994 and 2010. The Early Voting traffic at the Watauga rural satellite sites -- where most of the Republicans live -- has been historically and remains cold this year, like a corpse.

Deep Gap Volunteer Fire Dept. -- 7% of the total Early Vote

Meat Camp Volunteer Fire Dept. -- 5%

Western Watauga Community Center -- 9%

These Republican neighborhoods may be building some Republican surge. We can't tell. Sure doesn't look like it.

In Watauga, -- and across the state -- it's the Unaffiliated who hold the power. And maybe some well educated Republican women (as predicted by many and written up again this morning in the NYTimes).

Here's the $1.98 question: Are the Republican candidates getting out new or otherwise infrequent Republican voters? Have they expanded their base? Is immigrant-fear sufficient drug for educated Republican women (and some educated men)?

Will the Republicans come flooding out next Tuesday, by their thousands and tens of thousands, to overwhelm the little blue ripple of Democratic pushback in North Carolina? We've seen it happen before, like in 1994 and 2010. How is this year feeling? I'll take your intuition over the polls.

Some Watauga County and Statewide Early Voting Numbers

11,648 TOTAL have voted in Watauga County during Early Voting (through Oct. 31)

37% D
27% R
37% U

Happy belated Halloween.

And now this, about the whole state during Early Voting 2018, which shows numbers this year running well ahead of 2010 and 2014 (the last two first-term mid-term elections) but behind 2016, which was a presidential year ... from Old North State Politics:

How Can You Tell When They're Nervous? They Sweat Money

Republicans approve of fear as good politics -- caravans of illegals looking to spread a plague of leprosy, for just one example -- so let's talk fear with one week to go. Republican fear. Oh, they're not actually afraid of brown-skinned plague-bearers. That's just a pose (or else they're as gullible as a Florida bomb maker or a synagogue murderer). What they're really afraid of right now is losing big-time.

Watching the scrambles of Republican PAC money in Washington -- now that's a study in fear.

congressional seats needed for Dems to take the House ... 23
*congressional seats held by Rs in districts won by Clinton in 2016 ... 25
deep red seats that now look flippable to blue ... ??  

Guesses vary, go as high as 70 or more. Predictions are always fantasies.

But seriously, folks, literally dozens of "comer" Democrats are running in red districts from Maine to Washington state who could overturn the tables of the money-changers, good D candidates running exceptional campaigns in deep red districts. They're muddying predictions because they're playing for keeps and playing well in districts no one thought competitive.

Republican disbelievers in a blue wave fall back on recent history: Those deep red districts aren't really flippable because Trump's base is fired up, and it's the Democrats who're an angry, impotent mob, and Congressional districts just don't change hands that much. Weren't they paying attention during all those 2017 and early 2018 special elections (save one, below) in which longtime Republican incumbents went down -- or ancient Republican state and Federal seats changed hands, often decisively, like an ice-water slap? Don't they remember that?

So news reaches us here this morning that the National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC) is rushing quick aid to a number of Republican candidates (both incumbents and newcomers) running in red districts that Trump took in 2016 by anywhere from 7 to 20+ points ... because of impressive Democrats running stronger than anyone thought possible.

Partial list of those in-trouble Rs (and their D challengers, who are pictured):

Lucy McBath

Karen Handel --first-term Republican incumbent. You may recall how Handel won her seat in a special 2017 election against young, attractive Democratic opponent Jon Ossoff. If you recall that, you'll also recall our getting excited about Ossoff, who popped onto the national radar well funded and staffed by professionals. But Ossoff lost that special election to Handel for apparently being too much the outsider, a liberal pimp. Instead of a Northern carpetbagger like Ossoff, this year the Democrats of the 6th District of Georgia picked Lucy McBath. She's very much the insider. Also black, young, and an avowed proponent of gun control. They're afraid of McBath in Georgia (let alone D.C.) and are pumping up Handel. With Stacey Abrams at the top of the Georgia ticket, McBath and Abrams would mutually benefit from voter enthusiasm if they can overcome the voter suppression.

Abigail Spanberger

Dave Brat -- in Virginia's 7th District. He's the brat who beat powerful incumbent Republican big-wig Eric Cantor in 2014. He's in trouble. Democrat Abigail Spanberger, a former CIA officer, has come on strong. A poll by the Wason Center for Public Policy at Christopher Newport University very recently put Spanberger over Brat, 46 - 45. NRCC is pouring money in for attack ads on TV.

Leslie Cockburn

Denver Riggleman -- in Virginia's 5th District. Riggleman is running for the seat left open by retiring Republican Tom Garrett, who announced he had an alcohol problem, and the high he got from being powerful wasn't helping. Background on Garrett here. Democrat Leslie Cockburn won the primary and has been a credible candidate in a sprawling rural district that includes the university town of Charlottesville. We wrote extensively about Cockburn way back in May.

Joe Cunningham

Katie Arrington -- in South Carolina's 1st District, which includes Charleston. Arrington is Trump-blessed (he laid his holy hands on Arrington's noggin in the Republican primary after incumbent Republican adulterer Mark Sanford dared to criticize the president out loud). According to Sullivan and Weigel, "Katie Arrington has had trouble putting away her Democratic opponent, Joe Cunningham," in a district both Trump and Mark Sanford won easily. I've written admiringly of Cunningham more than once. He looks like a winner to me.

Amy McGrath

Garland "Andy" Barr -- in Kentucky's 6th. Incumbent Barr is seriously endangered by former fighter pilot Amy McGrath, who's been a favorite of mine all year. Barr is getting big TV money and consultants to try to knock those wings off McGrath. Trump carried the 6th District by 13 points. House Speaker Paul D. Ryan (R-Wis.) is flying in to campaign for Barr -- curious choice, since Ryan himself is a perfect symbol of Republican defeatism in this cycle -- Ryan retired rather than face IronStache.













* NRCC and Republican super-PACS have been pulling support for some incumbents considered too far gone to save -- throwing them to the wolves.

Early Voting Trend in Watauga After 3 Days

Watauga County early voting through yesterday, counting returned mail-in ballots: 4,276 total votes.

Voters by Party:

41% D
23% R
36% U

Statewide Early Voting Trend

Courtesy BowTiePolitics:

Sign of the Times

Early Vote Totals, Day One, 2018 General Elections

Watauga County Early Voting Sites (in numerical order):

➽ Appalachian State University Plemmons Student Union 723 

➽ Watauga County Administration Building 530 

➽ Western Watauga Community Center 141  

➽ Blowing Rock Town Hall 136  

➽ Deep Gap Fire Department 99 

➽ Meat Camp Fire Department 72 

Trendlines
Of those 1,701 total voters yesterday in Watauga (in numerical order)...

43% Ds

34% Us (Independent)

22% Rs 

As always, the Unaffiliated hold the key in Watauga.