Democratic Losers in 2018 May Be Reborn as 2020 Winners

Could losing a high-profile Congressional race in 2018 actually fuel a Democratic candidate into winning a 2020 Senate race?

That's the question facing two women who were favorites of ours last year: Amy McGrath in Kentucky and M.J. Hegar in Texas. Both veterans of the military -- McGrath an ex-fighter pilot and Hegar an ex-helicopter pilot -- they were also both remarkably good at making an impression and raising money.

McGrath lost her race to incumbent Republican Congressman Andy Barr in the Kentucky 6th by 9,700 votes out of almost 303,000 total votes cast. M.J. Hegar lost to incumbent Republican Congressman John R. Carter in the Texas 31st by 8,300 votes out of 286,000. Both significantly closer than should have been expected, because the Kentucky 6th was rated R+10 and the Texas 31st, a whopping R+21. Pretty good damn showing for first-time novice candidates.

Politico reported back in February -- but I just found it today -- that Sen. Chuck Schumer was trying to recruit McGrath to go after Mitch McConnell's Senate seat. That would excite a lot of people, but McGrath underperformed in the rural precincts of the 6th District and would need a new plan for running statewide, which is majorly rural. The urban-rural divide is the battle line right now, and the McGrath campaign would have to grapple with why there's resistance to her among rural people -- despite her being an accomplished warrior for America, a Marine, one of the first female fighter pilots in U.S. history, a wife, and a mother.





Here's the best part for Amy McGrath, if she decides to run again: Mitch McConnell is underwater in his own state, and has been for some time. His approval rating in Kentucky was 33% this past February, with a 56% disapproval. In 2017, he had an 18% approval rating.


M.J. (Mary Jennings) Hegar describes herself as "an ass-kicking, motorcycle-riding Texas Democrat." She's an actual war hero. She has a Purple Heart (as well as the Distinguished Flying Cross with Valor) for combat in Afghanistan, where she piloted rescue helicopters. She's married now with two young children and lives in Round Rock. And she's got an Expert Marksman rating with both handgun and rifle.

The "ass-kicking" part came across loud and clear in her introductory video:





Hegar is already in as a candidate. She announced in April. She'll have to get past Joaquin Castro in a primary (along with a host of lesser-known Democrats). Joaquin is twin brother to Julian of presidential debate fame and the mayor of San Antonio. He's probably better known than Hegar statewide, so that primary will be no picnic. I don't think that will deter M.J. Hegar in the least.

UPDATE
Amy McGrath announced she was running against McConnell on July 9.

DCCC Announces First Tier of 33 US House Seats Targeted for 2020

Via Twitter yesterday, the DCCC (Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee) announced a first list of congressional House districts that will be targeted in 2020:

AZ-06 -- Dave Schweikert
CA-22 -- Devin Nunes
CA-50 -- Duncan Hunter
CO-03 -- Scott Tipton
FL-15 -- Ross Spano
FL-18 -- Brian Mast
GA-07 -- Rob Woodall
IA-04 -- Steve King
IL-13 -- Rodney Davis
IN-05 - Susan Brooks
KY-06 -- Andy Barr
MI-06 -- Fred Upton
MN-01 -- Jim Hagedorn
MO-02 -- Ann Wagner
NC-02 -- George Holding
NC-09 -- OPEN
NC-13 - Ted Budd
NE-02 -- Don Bacon
NY-01 -- Lee Zeldin
NY-02 -- Peter King
NY-24 -- John Katko
NY-27 -- Chris Collins
OH-01 -- Steve Chabot
PA-01 -- Brian Fitzpatrick
PA-10 -- Scott Perry
PA-16 - Mike Kelly
TX-10 -- Mike McCaul
TX-21 -- Chip Roy
TX-22 -- Pete Olson
TX-23 -- Will Hurd
TX-24 -- Kenny Marchant
TX-31 -- John Carter
WA-03 -- Jaime Herrera Beutler

You'll note the three seats in North Carolina, including NC-9 which still remains undecided these months after the election. Kathy Manning might be favored to try again against incumbent Ted Budd in the NC-13 (given her proven ability to raise money and forgetting for the moment that she was four and a half points behind Budd in the final tally). In the NC-2, we'll hope that Linda Coleman backs off from another try. There are other potential challengers in that district who aren't as shop-worn.

Will the amazing Amy McGrath seek a do-over against Andy Barr in the Ky-6? Will Duncan Hunter (Calif-50) and Chris Collins (NY-27) hold on again, despite their active criminal indictments? And there's white supremacist Steve King in Iowa-4. His 2018 opponent, J.D. Scholten, profiled on this site last year, has already announced that he probably won't try again, but maybe he should.

How Can You Tell When They're Nervous? They Sweat Money

Republicans approve of fear as good politics -- caravans of illegals looking to spread a plague of leprosy, for just one example -- so let's talk fear with one week to go. Republican fear. Oh, they're not actually afraid of brown-skinned plague-bearers. That's just a pose (or else they're as gullible as a Florida bomb maker or a synagogue murderer). What they're really afraid of right now is losing big-time.

Watching the scrambles of Republican PAC money in Washington -- now that's a study in fear.

congressional seats needed for Dems to take the House ... 23
*congressional seats held by Rs in districts won by Clinton in 2016 ... 25
deep red seats that now look flippable to blue ... ??  

Guesses vary, go as high as 70 or more. Predictions are always fantasies.

But seriously, folks, literally dozens of "comer" Democrats are running in red districts from Maine to Washington state who could overturn the tables of the money-changers, good D candidates running exceptional campaigns in deep red districts. They're muddying predictions because they're playing for keeps and playing well in districts no one thought competitive.

Republican disbelievers in a blue wave fall back on recent history: Those deep red districts aren't really flippable because Trump's base is fired up, and it's the Democrats who're an angry, impotent mob, and Congressional districts just don't change hands that much. Weren't they paying attention during all those 2017 and early 2018 special elections (save one, below) in which longtime Republican incumbents went down -- or ancient Republican state and Federal seats changed hands, often decisively, like an ice-water slap? Don't they remember that?

So news reaches us here this morning that the National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC) is rushing quick aid to a number of Republican candidates (both incumbents and newcomers) running in red districts that Trump took in 2016 by anywhere from 7 to 20+ points ... because of impressive Democrats running stronger than anyone thought possible.

Partial list of those in-trouble Rs (and their D challengers, who are pictured):

Lucy McBath

Karen Handel --first-term Republican incumbent. You may recall how Handel won her seat in a special 2017 election against young, attractive Democratic opponent Jon Ossoff. If you recall that, you'll also recall our getting excited about Ossoff, who popped onto the national radar well funded and staffed by professionals. But Ossoff lost that special election to Handel for apparently being too much the outsider, a liberal pimp. Instead of a Northern carpetbagger like Ossoff, this year the Democrats of the 6th District of Georgia picked Lucy McBath. She's very much the insider. Also black, young, and an avowed proponent of gun control. They're afraid of McBath in Georgia (let alone D.C.) and are pumping up Handel. With Stacey Abrams at the top of the Georgia ticket, McBath and Abrams would mutually benefit from voter enthusiasm if they can overcome the voter suppression.

Abigail Spanberger

Dave Brat -- in Virginia's 7th District. He's the brat who beat powerful incumbent Republican big-wig Eric Cantor in 2014. He's in trouble. Democrat Abigail Spanberger, a former CIA officer, has come on strong. A poll by the Wason Center for Public Policy at Christopher Newport University very recently put Spanberger over Brat, 46 - 45. NRCC is pouring money in for attack ads on TV.

Leslie Cockburn

Denver Riggleman -- in Virginia's 5th District. Riggleman is running for the seat left open by retiring Republican Tom Garrett, who announced he had an alcohol problem, and the high he got from being powerful wasn't helping. Background on Garrett here. Democrat Leslie Cockburn won the primary and has been a credible candidate in a sprawling rural district that includes the university town of Charlottesville. We wrote extensively about Cockburn way back in May.

Joe Cunningham

Katie Arrington -- in South Carolina's 1st District, which includes Charleston. Arrington is Trump-blessed (he laid his holy hands on Arrington's noggin in the Republican primary after incumbent Republican adulterer Mark Sanford dared to criticize the president out loud). According to Sullivan and Weigel, "Katie Arrington has had trouble putting away her Democratic opponent, Joe Cunningham," in a district both Trump and Mark Sanford won easily. I've written admiringly of Cunningham more than once. He looks like a winner to me.

Amy McGrath

Garland "Andy" Barr -- in Kentucky's 6th. Incumbent Barr is seriously endangered by former fighter pilot Amy McGrath, who's been a favorite of mine all year. Barr is getting big TV money and consultants to try to knock those wings off McGrath. Trump carried the 6th District by 13 points. House Speaker Paul D. Ryan (R-Wis.) is flying in to campaign for Barr -- curious choice, since Ryan himself is a perfect symbol of Republican defeatism in this cycle -- Ryan retired rather than face IronStache.













* NRCC and Republican super-PACS have been pulling support for some incumbents considered too far gone to save -- throwing them to the wolves.

Movement Is All in the Democratic Direction

Political prognosticator Larry Sabato at the University of Virginia issued new Crystal Ball ratings yesterday. They show movement, and all of it is in the direction of the Democrats. Here's the chart I found most interesting because we've focused on WatWatch on some of these Republican incumbents and their Democratic challengers. See discussion below the chart.

Crystal Ball House ratings changes

Member/District	Old Rating	New Rating
French Hill (R, AR-2)	Likely Republican	Leans Republican
Vern Buchanan (R, FL-16)	Likely Republican	Leans Republican
Charlie Crist (D, FL-13)	Likely Democratic	Safe Democratic
Steve King (R, IA-4)	Safe Republican	Likely Republican
David Young (R, IA-3)	Leans Republican	Toss-up
Peter Roskam (R, IL-6)	Leans Republican	Toss-up
Trey Hollingsworth (R, IN-9)	Safe Republican	Likely Republican
Jackie Walorski (R, IN-2)	Safe Republican	Likely Republican
Andy Barr (R, KY-6)	Leans Republican	Toss-up
Mike Bishop (R, MI-8)	Leans Republican	Toss-up
NM-2 Open (Pearce, R)	Likely Republican	Leans Republican
Steve Chabot (R, OH-1)	Leans Republican	Toss-up
OH-12 Special (Tiberi, R)	Leans Republican	Toss-up
Mike Kelly (R, PA-16)	Safe Republican	Likely Republican
John Carter (R, TX-31)	Safe Republican	Likely Republican
John Culberson (R, TX-7)	Leans Republican	Toss-up
WV-3 Open (Jenkins, R)	Leans Republican	Toss-up

*The movement in notorious Steve King's 4th Iowa District might startle the horses, unless you've been paying attention to his Democratic challenger J.D. Sholten. We wrote about him on June 16.

*Andy Barr's seat in Kentucky's 6th District has moved to a toss-up between him and Amy McGrath, about whom we've written several times. She's one of the stand-out stars of 2018.

*In the 12th Congressional District of Ohio, with a special election coming on August 7 for an open seat, Democrat Danny O'Connor is now rated a toss-up to take the seat.

*The movement in John Carter's Texas District 31 is especially noteworthy, because one of the most electrifying Democrats we've observed all year, M.J. Hegar, is getting national attention with her introductory video.

*John Culberson's 7th Congressional District in Texas is now rated a toss-up. We took quick note of his Democratic challenger Lizzie Pannill Fletcher way back on December 19 of last year. She's obviously making waves.

*Finally, the open seat in West Virginia's 3rd District is suddenly now a toss-up. We took notice of the Democratic challenger, Richard Ojeda, on June 19. There hasn't been a viable Democrat in that district of West Virginia in many years.

One Tough Customer

Amy McGrath, the former Marine fighter pilot and Democratic nominee for the US House from Kentucky, earns a big article in today's NYTimes. It's all about how impossible it will be for a Democrat to win the 6th Congressional District, especially a woman who came out publicly for background checks and a ban on bump-stocks in a district with "more AR-15s than you can shake a stick at" (according to the editor of the weekly Anderson County News).

McGrath took that position on guns during an interview with that Anderson News editor. She shocked him with her bluntness and her bravery: “What really surprised me was how honest and open she was about things she knew dang well weren’t going to be popular here,” he said.

It's the Marine thing. She's a freaking Marine, the first woman Marine fighter pilot, and she gives it to you straight and without flinching. That makes her about as rare a brand new politician as you'll ever see.

She was the first female Marine to fly an F-18 in combat. She flew missions in Afghanistan in 2002 and in Iraq in 2003. The last Democrat to win District 6, Ben Chandler, said, "How do you caricature someone as a liberal who has bombed terrorists? That’s ludicrous. I hope they try it. Look at [Republican incumbent Andy] Barr in the face and say how many terrorists have you killed?”

She's married to a Navy man, and they have three children. (If you haven't already, you might watch (again) her video on what really constitutes toughness -- and it ain't lying about the size of your button.)

Continuing to Build

Kathleen Williams won the Democratic
primary in Montana on Tuesday to face off
against Republican incumbent Greg Gianforte
who was sentenced for assaulting a reporter the
night before his election in May 2017

I haven't the time to do deep research of my own right now on the Democratic challengers mentioned below, and the Republican incumbents, but soon ... soon ... I'll be free again to sit at a computer.

From the WashPost:

Voters have cast primary ballots in 32 of the 56 Republican-held House districts most vulnerable to a Democratic takeover, according to the nonpartisan Cook Political Report. Of the 28 races that have been called, Democratic women have won in half the districts, with women leading the Democratic ticket Wednesday afternoon in one of the four remaining seats still being counted in California. The party’s nominees in these crucial districts also include six military veterans and seven nominees who are black, Latino or Asian.

The winners include new political stars such as Amy McGrath, a former Marine fighter pilot running in Lexington, Ky., and Mikie Sherrill, a Navy pilot and former prosecutor running in northern New Jersey....

Democrats need a net gain of 23 seats to retake the House and have benefited from a playing field that is largely located in the suburbs of major American cities, where polls show swing voters, especially educated white women, are more likely to reject Trump’s conduct in office. Strategists consider only five Democratic seats, including two in Minnesota, vulnerable to a Republican takeover.

'Year of the Woman' Just Got More Interesting

Georgia
Stacey Abrams is the Democratic candidate for governor of Georgia following yesterday's primary. That's just short of astounding for the Peach State, and for any other state in or out of the traditional South, because she won her primary over a white woman with over 70% of the vote.

Abrams is 44 years old, a graduate of Yale Law School, and a leader of the minority Democrats in the Georgia legislature. She's also the successful writer of novels, which she produces under the non de plume Selena Montgomery. (Who's the last Georgia politician who also wrote novels? Yes, you're right: Newt Gingrich.)

“We are writing the next chapter of Georgia’s history, where no one is unseen, no one is unheard and no one is uninspired,” she said at her victory party last night in Atlanta. And she quoted the book of Esther: “We were born for such a time as this.”

Indeed.

Kentucky

Amy McGrath, the first Marine woman to fly an F-18 fighter jet and a candidate I've been very excited about, upset the odds and beat the DCCC's pick in Kentucky's 6th Congressional District. Lexington's two-term mayor Jim Gray had been the anointed-by-Washington candidate to take the district, and he was soundly defeated. McGrath goes on now to face a weak Republican incumbent, and she's already leading him in the polls.

Amy McGrath, Fighter Pilot, Running in Kentucky

I've been following the political trajectory of Amy McGrath in Kentucky (here, for example), who's one of the most exciting new candidates to arise this year. She's running to unseat a Republican incumbent in the 6th Congressional District.

Since I wrote about her, she's drawn a Democratic opponent in a primary, Mayor of Lexington Jim Gray, who lost a race for the US Senate in 2016 to Rand Paul. Oddly (IMO), the DCCC is supporting Gray over McGrath, but the voters may well rebuke that choice on May 22.

McGrath is a former Marine fighter pilot, and this really well done TV ad combines fighter pilot with fighter mom, and it alone (again, IMO) could win this race for her. Check it out.

Amy McGrath, A Democratic Star Rising in Kentucky

Wow. So many newly minted Democratic candidates across this nation are catching fire and beginning to get their message out: We can do better, and we will.

Very few of those new candidates are as impressive as 22-year Marine veteran Amy McGrath, who was also a Marine fighter pilot and who is challenging Republican Rep. Andy Barr in the Kentucky 6th.

Take a look at this interview with McGrath, which includes her introductory video:






McGrath's strength of purpose and personality have shot her to the top among congressional fundraisers. By October -- she announced last August -- she had raised more than $770,000. A majority of that money came from small donors — she raised more than $400,000 in donations of under $200. That's called catching fire.

Republican incumbent Andy Barr: Barr came very close to defeating incumbent Democrat Ben Chandler for the seat in the Tea Party wave of 2010 and did beat him in 2012 with 50.6% of the vote. The 6th District should nominally be a Democratic district, so far as voter registrations go (which obviously don't go very far these days), and it has a majority of women, 51.5% to 48.5% men. No Democrat has come close to beating Barr since 2012.

FiveThirtyEight rates Congressman Barr a super Trumpian, but he actually looks more like a super Foxxian to me, voting with Virginia Foxx to deny hurricane relief to the victims of Harvey and to the devastated citizens of Puerto Rico.

If you'd like to contribute to Amy McGrath's campaign, go to amymcgrathforcongress.com, where you'll find the DONATE button.