Update on Candidate Filings -- 1 Day Left

 

Deanna Ballard

Though Sen. Jeff Jackson dropped out of the US Senate race and cleared the path for Cheri Beasley, she still has -- believe it or not -- 8 Democratic primary opponents, some of them "perennials" and some who apparently don't mind spending the filing fee of $1,740. To gain what, exactly?

Speaking of Sen. Jackson, he's filed to run in the new 14th CD and at the moment has a single primary opponent.

Former congressman Mark Walker did finally file yesterday for the Republican primary for US Senate.

Perennial Democratic candidate Erica D. Smith has filed in the CD1 and will face state senator Don Davis in a primary for the open seat. No Republican incumbent but 4 Republicans filed in the primary.

In CD4, considered "safe Democratic," a real fight is shaping up between Nida Allam, a Durham County commissioner; Valerie Foushee, a formidable state senator; and Richard L. Watkins, a young African American Ph.D. in microbiology and immunology.

CD6 (largely Guildford Co.), which is supposed to be a solid Democratic House seat, so far has no Democratic candidate. Apparently waiting for current Democratic incumbent Kathy Manning to file for reelection.

NC Senate race to watch: Deanna Ballard and Ralph Hise were double-bunked in this new district (Dist. 47),  and indeed Ballard has decided to take on Hise, the very man who drew the map that double-bunked them. The Republican establishment was evidently trying to encourage her to retire, but she ain't going easy.

Ashe County Democrat Ben Massey has filed to run against incumbent Republican Ray Pickett. Two Watauga precincts (Blue Ridge and Elk) have been removed from this district (#93) and added to Caldwell, while Allegheny County got added to Pickett's district.

For the first time in many years, there will be a Democratic primary contest for a County Commission seat between Carrington Pertalion and Angela Laws King.

The Human Cost of a New Map

 

You should already know that Democratic Congressman G.K. Butterfield, who's served in the US House representing the (old) CD1 since the election of 2004, saw his residence moved into the new 2nd, which he recognized would be next to impossible for a Democrat to win. So he's retiring. “North Carolina is the battleground,” Butterfield told The N&O Friday. “I’ve looked at all of this and weighed all of the circumstances and I’ve just decided that I don’t want to run on that map that is gerrymandered. That is unfair ... This map is the most partisan and racially gerrymandered I have ever seen. It is extreme. Every political party pushes the envelope a little with redistricting but this is extreme to have 11 Republican seats out of 14. On a good day 10 out of 14 seats is unlawful, unconstitutional and undemocratic,” Butterfield said.

Meanwhile, former state Sen. Erica Smith, who lost the US Senate primary to Cal Cunningham in 2020 and was an announced candidate again for the Richard Burr Senate seat in 2022, has left the Senate race to run in the new 2nd CD. She wasn't getting any traction in the Senate race. Maybe she can flip what has become a much more Republican district. DavesRedistricting.org scores it 65% Republican, 33% Democratic, and 68.8% white.

Democratic candidate Richard Watkins, a political novice but an accomplished scientist, has also left the US Senate race, where he was completely overshadowed by Cheri Beasley and Jeff Jackson, and says he will now run for Congress in the new 6th CD, where the dean of liberal Democrats David Price has announced his retirement. The new 6th is one of the "safe" Democratic districts, where there's already a pile-on of new candidates. State Sen. Wiley Nickel announced first, followed by Durham County Commissioner Nida Allam, a Muslim woman who made a big splash, followed by state Sen. Valerie Foushee, who instantly became a front-runner.

Former U.S. Rep. Mark Walker, a Republican who has been getting nowhere in the Republican primary for Richard Burr's Senate seat (despite or because of the endorsement by Madison Cawthorn), is rumored to be launching a 7th District race, where state Rep. Jon Hardister, also a Republican, is also considering a run. That's the district where football star and Yale graduate Bo Hines ("the educated Madison Cawthorn"), who once upon a time in the recent past said he was going to challenge Virginia Foxx, has finally landed his nascent congressional campaign. He's a Trumper. The new 7th CD is 78% Republican.

Is Cheri Beasley Now the Frontrunner?

 

Probably.

Photo Julia Wall, News and Observer

News broke while I was traveling on Thursday that former NC Supreme Court Chief Justice Cheri Beasley is expected to announce her candidacy for the US Senate, sometime before the daffodils wither.

“She’s putting a team together, is planning to announce and I think we’ll see that in early April,” said Kara Hollingsworth, a Cary-based political consultant who has worked on previous Beasley campaigns and remains close with Beasley. (Brian Murphy)

The thing is: Beasley has run statewide and came within 400 votes of winning against Rumpelstiltskin last November, so she could easily have multiples of the base that Jeff Jackson of Mecklenberg County currently has.

I've been a big fan of Senator Jackson since the first time he stood up in the NC Senate and indicted the Republican bosses for malfeasance and bad faith. (Here's just one YouTube from Jan. 2015 of his communication skills.) Plus I owe him for helping rally support in Watauga during the last off-year, in 2019, when he came to our fall rally. We knew what our collective goals would be in 2020, and Jeff helped us focus and build our reserves.

I had wanted Jackson to run against Tillis in 2020. A lot of people wanted that. But Cal Cunningham got there first. IMO, Cunningham's damage to himself has swollen into a throbbing, abscessed sore spot for all young, photogenic, white men trying to run for high office. Anecdotal evidence: Women, particularly, no longer trust young, photogenic, white men. I keep hearing, "No more Cal Cunninghams!"

I don't think Jeff Jackson is another Cal Cunningham. I'll contribute to his campaign and vote for him. But I'll also watch the rise of Cheri Beasley with actual hope for the possibilities.

Frankly, I think Beasley would make the stronger candidate, especially if we wind up with Lara Trump running a cheerleader's campaign on the other side. Beasley has actually been on the ballot statewide multiple times. The first was her election to the NC Court of Appeals in 2008. Then she ran for and won her first seat on the NC Supreme Court in 2014. Governor Cooper would eventually appoint her Chief Justice, just in 2019, the seat she was defending last fall.

Kara Hollingsworth, the political consultant who made the announcement for Beasley and was quoted above, is partner in Three Point Strategies (TPS), an all-Black woman management firm -- described on LinkedIn as "a radical, Black, millennial-led, DC-based consulting firm." This purpose appears on their website:

We specialize in electing the first’s, the only’s and the truly magical. At Three Point Strategies we not only trust Black women, they are our North Star. We’ve worked with candidates running for US Senate to City Council and in 2017 TPS worked with six Black women mayoral candidates to usher in the #yearoftheblackwomanmayor.

[Not sure which six new mayors TPS worked with, but some 10 Black women won big-city mayorships in 2017, including in Washington, D.C.; Atlanta; New Orleans and Baton Rouge, Louisiana; Charlotte, North Carolina; San Francisco; and Chicago.]

 

The three partners of Three Point Strategies

Another Interesting Senate Candidate I Missed

Don't know where my head was on March 5th that caused me to miss this news (from James Arkin in Politico):

Joan Higginbotham, a former NASA astronaut and the third Black woman to go to space, is seriously considering running for Senate in North Carolina as a Democrat, according to multiple people familiar with her deliberations. [If she runs, she'll also be the third Black woman running for the US Senate from North Carolina.]

Joan Higginbotham

Higginbotham, 56, has never run for political office before and would be entering what is expected to be one of the most expensive and high-profile Senate races in the country next year. North Carolina is an open race and is among Democrats top targets, alongside Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, as they seek to protect their fragile 50-50 majority.

To the pileup of Democrats willing to jump into the 2022 Senate primary you can also add Black virology scientist Richard L. Watkins, profiled here, and former NC Senator Erica Smith.

 

A New Democratic Candidate Announces for US Senate in 2022

 

Richard L. Watkins, who earned his Ph.D. at Chapel Hill in microbiology and immunology with a specialty in virology, has announced his intention to run for the US Senate seat currently held by Richard Burr. No one saw this coming. A freaking genuine scientist running for US Senate from North Carolina!

He touts his role as founder and CEO of The Science Policy Action Network. I've been on that website and clicked a lot of buttons, but I still don't know what they do. The language is all abstraction --"Exploration, Understanding, Knowledge" -- without specifics, though the bios of the staff and board of directors are quite fulsome about their scientific credentials.

Perhaps Watkins' primary salaried job is coordinating UNC’s Chancellor’s Science Scholars Program, which is cited in the News & Observer interview. He also serves on UNC’s Campus and Community Advisory Committee.

I'm most curious about his previous run for office. In 2018, he challenged Democratic Congressman David Price in the primary for the 4th CD. Watkins took 6.48% of the vote. Why? Why would he challenge the most venerable Democrat among North Carolina office-holders? Was he unhappy with Price's service? I can't find any of his campaign literature from 2018, so his candidacy at that time and against that incumbent just seems ... quixotic.

He's also not at all active on social media. He hasn't posted to his Twitter account since June 12, 2019, nor to his Facebook page since December 18, 2020.

All of which suggests that this may be a "wild hair campaign," when an otherwise attractive and qualified young person leapt before they looked.

Already announced for the 2022 Democratic senatorial primary -- former state Sen. Erica Smith and current state Sen. Jeff Jackson -- both seasoned campaigners who are well prepared for the race and well underway.

Cheri Beasley, Candidate for US Senate in 2022?

 

Cheri Beasley

Dallas Woodhouse -- yes, that Dallas Woodhouse -- is now director of strategic operations at the Civitas Institute, and he has his name on something of a political scoop about the potential Democratic primary in 2022 for the US Senate seat currently occupied by Richard Burr. Woodhouse reports that former NC Chief Justice Cheri Beasley "has hired a new campaign consultant and is preparing to announce her entry into the Democratic primary," which would give already announced candidate, state Sen. Jeff Jackson, some real competition for the nomination.

I'm a fan of Sen. Jackson. I'm also a fan of Cheri Beasley, who came within 400 votes last November of keeping her seat on the state's Supreme Court. She has a statewide base. Jackson has a Mecklenburg County base, but he has supporters everywhere because of his fundraising for other General Assembly Democrats and his generous personal appearances (including in Watauga County in the fall of 2019).

Woodhouse writes that Jackson "is already being unfavorably compared to [Cal] Cunningham, another white male Democrat [sic] candidate," and I'll concede that Cal hurt the prospects of other young white male candidates in the Democratic Party. But to suggest that Jackson is a carbon copy is wholly unfair and inaccurate. While Cunningham made progressives somewhat nauseous by appearing "soft" or wishy-washy, Jeff Jackson's image is more warrior in the General Assembly than conciliator. He's also been a clear-headed presence on social media, offering pungent commentary on the actions of the Republican majority in the General Assembly.

The other name that will complicate Cheri Beasley's future plans -- assuming that Woodhouse's insider info is correct -- is Erica Smith, another Black woman who also wants to be US Senator and who has a pretty loyal progressive base across the state. At least it was loyal. Cheri Beasley's entry might change that.

Woodhouse's other news is that ex-guv and "toe-stepper" Pat McCrory might run too on the Republican side, but my money would still be on former Republican Rep. Mark Walker, who's already announced his candidacy.

Moscow Mitch's Money Is Meddling in the NC Democratic Senatorial Primary

Jim Morrill and Brian Murphy reported in Friday's News Observer:

A group tied to the Republican U.S. Senate leader is behind the mysterious super PAC that has poured millions into TV ads for North Carolina Democratic Senate candidate Erica Smith. 

The Senate Leadership Fund, a super PAC tied to Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, gave nearly $3 million to the Faith and Power PAC, according to new reports filed with the Federal Election Commission. It is the PAC’s lone contributor. 

Faith and Power has spent $3 million on TV ads and mailers in support of Smith, who has lagged in her own fundraising. The PAC’s recent TV ads attack her main rival, Cal Cunningham, from the left. The newest ad says he won’t stand up to the NRA or for the LGBTQ community in addition to saying he won’t vote for Medicare for All or the Green New Deal.

We are clear that Mitch McConnell and those allied with him do not think that Erica Smith should be elected. They do not support her. They're using deceptive advertising to force Cunningham to bleed money pointing out the deception.

The Elections of March: Dark Money Enters the Democratic Senate Primary

Erica Smith

Reporting in The Hill: "Mystery group backs outsider Democrat challenging Tillis in North Carolina."

The mystery group: Something calling itself Faith and Power PAC, which "sprang into existence only last week."

The "outsider Democrat" benefitting from the PAC's money: NC State Senator Erica Smith (NCS3), who in the latest Public Policy Polling is drawing 12% support to Cal Cunningham's 22% and who has loudly expressed her disgust with the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee (DSCC) for backing Cunningham as the most viable option instead of her.

The Hill tracks the dark money to Republican-connected organs and groups. It's not the first time that veiled outside money has tried to elevate Smith's profile: Back last August billboards went up in the state warning that Erica Smith was "TOO LIBERAL for North Carolina," a claim that Smith "was eager to use ... as evidence that she’s the most feared challenger to Republican incumbent Thom Tillis .... But [according to Nathan Gonzales in Roll Call] Republicans were targeting Smith because they believe she’s the weaker potential general election foe, not because they’re afraid of her."

The Faith and Power PAC TV ads for Smith also play up her liberal cred: “Who’s the Democrat for U.S. Senate endorsed by progressives and unions? Erica Smith. Who’s got the courage to vote for 'Medicare for All?' Erica Smith. The number one supporter of the Green New Deal? Erica Smith again. Erica Smith is one of us,” a narrator says in the ad. “Vote Democrat Erica Smith for U.S. Senate, the only proven progressive.”

The outside meddling in our Democratic senatorial primary is merely another sign of our times -- that so much dangles on threads pulled by men with lots of money.

When Political Billboards Get Too Clever By Half

NC State Senator Erica D. Smith (Dist. 3 in the lowlands), one of at least three declared Democratic candidates who'll be in the 2020 primary to take on incumbent Republican US Senator Thom Tillis, is trying to make campaign hay ($$) out of this billboard that recently went up in Raleigh.

It's a curious message, psychologically elevating Smith to frontrunner status when she is a distant challenger to frontrunner Cal Cunningham, who has raised almost 3-quarters of a mil to her $85,000. Turns out that this billboard -- and several others just like it that are popping up in other states -- is a psychological ploy to give a boost to a Democratic candidate that the Republicans would prefer to run against.

According to Nathan L. Gonzales in Roll Call, "Smith was eager to use the billboard as evidence that she’s the most feared challenger to Republican incumbent Thom Tillis .... But Republicans were targeting Smith because they believe she’s the weaker potential general election foe, not because they’re afraid of her." Ouch.

And she took the bait, bragging about her fearsomeness on her Twitter feed.

'Course, when Cal Cunningham wins the primary, they'll use that same billboard message against him. Because that's as far as their imagination goes.

Eric Mansfield Enters US Senate Race

Fayetteville medical doctor Eric Mansfield has announced his bid for the US Senate seat occupied currently by Sen. Thom Tillis, just one day after Cal Cunningham also announced.

Mansfield was elected to the NC Senate (District 21) in 2010 and served just one term. Before that term ended he opted to run for lieutenant governor in 2012, but lost the primary to Linda Coleman that year. I voted for Mansfield in that primary (and Coleman went on to lose to Dan Forest).

In a YouTube video announcing his candidacy, Mansfield talks about a near-death experience he had in 2018 when his heart stopped while he was driving home from a workout. His car crashed but he survived intact, and he says he was given a second chance.

To recap others in this Democratic Senate primary: Trevor Fuller is a Mecklenburg County Commissioner, and Erica D. Smith is currently in the NC Senate. No doubt others will also be announcing runs on the Democratic side, with Tillis looking increasingly vulnerable.

Erica D. Smith Declares Candidacy for the US Senate

Erica D. Smith is the second declared Democratic candidate for the Thom Tillis seat in the US Senate. Trevor Fuller was first.

Erica Smith was first elected to the NC Senate in 2014 from the sprawling 3rd District -- now including Beaufort, Martin, Bertie, Northampton, Warren, and Vance counties. She earned her B.S. in mechanical engineering from North Carolina A & T University in 1994 and her M.A. in religious studies from Howard University School of Divinity in 2000. She worked for Boeing as a senior specialist engineer from 1993 to 1997, for the U.S. Patent & Trademark Office as a patent examiner from 1998 to 2003, and as a high school math, physics, and chemistry teacher.

Back last August, Colin Campbell gave Smith a shout-out in the News and Observer as one of a group of highly talented minority legislators in Raleigh who look ready for bigger things: "An engineer, educator and ordained minister, Smith chairs the Legislative Black Caucus and has been effective in helping the state’s economically challenged northeastern corner. She recently fought for a summer science, math and technology program that was targeted for budget cuts, and it’s now expanding into more counties."

She announced her candidacy yesterday on Twitter.

Neither Fuller nor Smith are much known outside their bailiwicks, and they look like long shots. However, lightning's been known to strike even at lower elevations.