Wednesday, July 25, 2018

Movement Is All in the Democratic Direction

Political prognosticator Larry Sabato at the University of Virginia issued new Crystal Ball ratings yesterday. They show movement, and all of it is in the direction of the Democrats. Here's the chart I found most interesting because we've focused on WatWatch on some of these Republican incumbents and their Democratic challengers. See discussion below the chart.

Crystal Ball House ratings changes

Member/DistrictOld RatingNew Rating
French Hill (R, AR-2)Likely RepublicanLeans Republican
Vern Buchanan (R, FL-16)Likely RepublicanLeans Republican
Charlie Crist (D, FL-13)Likely DemocraticSafe Democratic
Steve King (R, IA-4)Safe RepublicanLikely Republican
David Young (R, IA-3)Leans RepublicanToss-up
Peter Roskam (R, IL-6)Leans RepublicanToss-up
Trey Hollingsworth (R, IN-9)Safe RepublicanLikely Republican
Jackie Walorski (R, IN-2)Safe RepublicanLikely Republican
Andy Barr (R, KY-6)Leans RepublicanToss-up
Mike Bishop (R, MI-8)Leans RepublicanToss-up
NM-2 Open (Pearce, R)Likely RepublicanLeans Republican
Steve Chabot (R, OH-1)Leans RepublicanToss-up
OH-12 Special (Tiberi, R)Leans RepublicanToss-up
Mike Kelly (R, PA-16)Safe RepublicanLikely Republican
John Carter (R, TX-31)Safe RepublicanLikely Republican
John Culberson (R, TX-7)Leans RepublicanToss-up
WV-3 Open (Jenkins, R)Leans RepublicanToss-up

*The movement in notorious Steve King's 4th Iowa District might startle the horses, unless you've been paying attention to his Democratic challenger J.D. Sholten. We wrote about him on June 16.

*Andy Barr's seat in Kentucky's 6th District has moved to a toss-up between him and Amy McGrath, about whom we've written several times. She's one of the stand-out stars of 2018.

*In the 12th Congressional District of Ohio, with a special election coming on August 7 for an open seat, Democrat Danny O'Connor is now rated a toss-up to take the seat.

*John Culberson's 7th Congressional District in Texas is now rated a toss-up. We took quick note of his Democratic challenger Lizzie Pannill Fletcher way back on December 19 of last year. She's obviously making waves.

*Finally, the open seat in West Virginia's 3rd District is suddenly now a toss-up. We took notice of the Democratic challenger, Richard Ojeda, on June 19. There hasn't been a viable Democrat in that district of West Virginia in many years.

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