Monday, November 03, 2008

Republican Campaign Consultants Predict Obama Win in NC

CAJ Consultants, a Matthews-based Republican firm, has issued a report based on voting trends established during the Early Voting period in NC. Their prediction: Obama will take NC with 51% to McCain's 48%.

The report, which was distributed via e-mail last night in a PDF file, is authored by Alan Michael Teitleman and Justin William Moore. Teitleman was once upon a time president of the College Republicans at ASU and has been active with the state Republican Party and as a legislative aide for Republican members of the state legislature. Moore is also a former president of the ASU College Republicans, was an Alternate Delegate to the 2004 Republican National Convention, and has been a volunteer for many Republican candidates including Elizabeth Dole for US Senate and Virginia Foxx for NC Senate.

Highlights from the Teitleman/Moore analysis
● Early Voting in 2008 saw a 300% increase over Early Voting in 2004

● 14.5% of eligible voters voted early in 2004, compared to 41.3% in 2008

● in 2004, 48% of early voters were Democrats; in 2008, 52% were Democrats

● in 2004, 37% of early voters were Republican; in 2008, 30% were Republicans

● Teitleman and Moore believe that more than half of the final NC turn-out has already voted

● going into Election Day tomorrow, Obama and Democratic candidates down-ballot should have a minimum advantage of 128,863 votes from Early Voting

● Teitleman and Moore are projecting total turnout in NC at 4.6 million, approximately 74% voter turnout

Final Early Voting Numbers, from 11 p.m., Saturday:
Dem 1,325,226 (51.50%)
Lib 1,644 (0.06%)
Rep 774,147 (30.08%)
Una 472,189 (18.35%)

Early Voting Difference, 2004 to 2008:
Democratic voting is up 2.9%
Republican voting is down 7.32%
Libertarian voting is negligible
Unaffiliated voting is up 4.45%

Alan Teitleman informs me that he is now registered Unaffiliated.

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