Wednesday, November 05, 2008


Although Roy Carter carried Watauga County against the incumbent Republican congresswoman by 2,000 votes, exactly doubling the number by which she lost this county in 2006, he was swamped in all the other ten counties. Foxx's lowest percentage of the vote in all but Watauga was the 54.71% she drew in Ashe, but, here, see for yourself:

Carter 14,727 (53.69%)
Foxx 12,702 (46.31%)

Carter 5,944 (45.29%)
Foxx 7,180 (54.71%)

Carter 11,194 (38.05%)
Foxx 18,223 (61.95%)

Carter 5,934 (34.96%)
Foxx 11,042 (65.04%)

Carter 2,264 (42.85%)
Foxx 3,019 (57.15%)

11,491 (39.52%)
17,583 (60.48%)

Carter 5,324 (31.49%)
Foxx 11,584 (68.51%)

Carter 7,810 (36.23%)
Foxx 13,749 (63.77%)

Carter 48,123 (45.10%)
Foxx 58,589 (54.90%)

Carter 6,394 (32.13%)
Foxx 13,508 (67.87%)

Carter 14,612 (43.67%)
Foxx 18,851 (56.33%)

Carter 879 (28.16%)
Foxx 2,243 (71.84%)

What can you say about numbers like that? Well, actually, a couple of things:

1. One can certainly tell the counties where there's Democratic Party organization (even vestigial efforts): Ashe, Wilkes, Alleghany, Surry, Forsyth, Iredell. And the counties where there's nothing much going on. For a Democrat to be successful in the 5th district, someone is going to have to organize those counties. It's not impossible. A core group of even a dozen people in each county, if they're dedicated to the effort, could move those mountains. Overcoming defeatism would be a fundamental first step (maybe try drugs?).

2. Unless we're willing to accept The Madam for life (and we hear she's not scheduled for the sod until approximately 2050), then we need to recognize that a presidential year is the worst possible time to retire her. That's not what some of us thought going into 2008. We foresaw a Democrat (any Democrat) winning the White House, but we underestimated the relentless, robotic march of the Republicans in all counties listed above save one. When the presidency is at stake, you can forget moving the 5th District, even if every Republican is hitching rides to the polls from the County Poorhouse.

3. That makes 2010 look all the more interesting, if # 1 above could also be achieved.

4. Money. The Carter campaign was always cash-strapped, and it proved that even without resources it could get a shudder out of the incumbent by simply publicizing her record, which is largely unknown in the 5th Dist. and hugely debilitating to the well being of its citizens.

5. Foxx will not change. She hates the people who oppose her and will not reach out to them. Witness her complete absence from any venue where ordinary citizens might ask her an unwelcome question. That is her greatest weakness. That and her hard-hearted conservatism in a changing environment where excessive partisanship is going to seem increasingly unattractive.

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