Monday, August 31, 2020

Does Madison Cawthorn Think He's Cute?

 


Madison Cawthorn, the 25-year-old Henderson County Republican who induced a widespread media swoon by winning the Republican primary for Congress in the NC-11, is not the first American politician to base his electoral prospects pretty much exclusively on his looks, nor will he be the last. He's very aware that he's got head-turning handsomeness on his side. He says in one video I've seen that he used to be 6'3" tall before his automobile crash -- "I stood out," he said. Explains a little the air of privilege that surrounds him, the expectation, despite a tragic car crash, that you can take what you want because. More than one young Christian girl has complained publicly that Cawthorn seemed to think that they owed him some romantic compliance. 

He has said that his big ambition is to be the new young avatar for an aging Republican Party, and he told a reporter that his secret weapon is his "packaging."

“...I believe I can carry the message of conservatism in a way that doesn’t seem so abrasive – that has better packaging, I would say, better messaging.”

I'm a very shallow person, I admit, and judge most candidates first by their surface appearance, but it's a trifle off-putting to hear the candidate admit that the surface is what there is. That he seems to think he can sell sandpaper for Kleenex if he's charming and pretty. Cawthorn is all-American boy with the thousand-watt smile, and his political calculation is this: He's pimping policies that no Millennial would select for themselves unless the salesman is a seducer.

He handles himself pretty well in media interviews. He has his talking points down pat. He's never, or rarely, at a loss for words. He knows his role -- tragic young voice of conservatism struggling to his feet to stand up for freedom despite all odds (while the choir at Fox News faints dead away). But when he gets into policy, he fades quickly into vagueness and illogic. He says he wants his main contribution to be the reform of our health care system, based on his own near-death experiences, but his "reform" looks puddle-deep and contradictory to me -- encouraging more competition among insurance companies is going to make health-care more affordable for the "forgotten people"? The "free market" would have healed his wounds faster? I think a wholly unfettered free market might have discarded both Madison Cawthorn and his hospital bed. 

He has expressed regret that the Republican majorities in Congress did not repeal Obamacare during Trump's first two years, though he, like his hero Trump, does not have a replacement plan. So his "free market" sloganeering looks not only shallow but also quite harmful.

The evident shallowness makes quite credible the creeping fear that he's aligned with white nationalism, with its toxic disdain for weak and unattractive "cucks," though I've never thought his Instagram photos from Berchtesgaden revealed much of anything other than a touristy bragging about places he's been. Time will tell about all of that, if he should actually make it to Congress.

The knock against him that drew blood is that he deliberately misled about the car crash derailing his coming stardom at the Naval Academy. He admitted in a lawsuit deposition that his nomination for the Naval Academy had been rejected before his car crash injuries. He has since claimed in interviews that he never misled anyone about that. I've gone back and watched his introductory video biography on his website -- which is still there -- and there's no doubt that he intended to mislead people about his supposed admission to Annapolis, supposedly ended by the car crash. There's no doubt in my mind.

His Democratic opponent, Moe Davis, an actual distinguished retired member of the military, called Cawthorn's wrapping himself in tragically aborted military glory as "stolen valor." Cawthorn thought perhaps that he could get away with it. After all, he looked the part of a rising Navy midshipman, didn't he?


Sunday, August 30, 2020

Amber Baker Is Expected To Take This Forsyth County House Seat in November

 

Amber Baker was featured on a WXII newscast in February as a candidate running in the Democratic primary for the 72nd NC House District, which takes in much of the heart of Winston-Salem. The district is rated "Likely Democrat" and had been represented by Democrat Derwin Montgomery for one term (after serving a decade on the Winston-Salem city council). Montgomery wanted to move up to the US Congress, so he gave up his House seat to run in this year's primary for the 6th CD of North Carolina. He lost to Kathy Manning (who is most assuredly going to Congress), and Amber Baker is considered a shoo-in to take Montgomery's former House seat in this heavily Democratic district.

Amber Baker is guaranteed to be a new face and a new force for public education in Raleigh. This video is now six months old but still germane for understanding the evolving Democratic Party in North Carolina.


Looks like Baker has only token Republican opposition, but I trust that she's nevertheless campaigning for the job.

Saturday, August 29, 2020

Old-Line Rural Republicans Hold the Key to the Election in North Carolina


I believe Trump will be defeated. I believe he won't. I believe the Democrats will take control of the NC House. I believe they won't -- and in fact, that they'll probably lose some of the seats they gained in 2018. I believe Democrats will take control of the US Senate. I believe they can't and that they'll lose Doug Jones in Alabama in the bargain. I believe that even conservative rural Republicans have understood the deep tragedy of Donald J. Trump and will stay home this year. But I know good and well that they're itching as much as me to get to the polls to reelect the great businessman and owner of "the libs"; yes, they'll show up with no masks and sharp elbows, and people will get hurt.

Hope has a companion, despair. He comes dressed in black and wearing a plague masque. While Hope squeegees on the softsoap -- "The polls reflect reality!" Despair blasts a cold water hose --"You should doubt the polls, because ... history. The polls don't know shit because they don't know the right ones to talk to."

It's not just the polls nurturing Hope. It's ground-level narrative -- rumor and hearsay. Like this we heard: Old-line rural Republicans in Watauga County seem more embarrassed by Trump than energized, and if they decide not to show up on November 3rd, then Hope, she is a prophetess.

Politics is an art, but it's also divination -- reading the signs -- and intuition, taking the surrounding temperature, looking for that high fever on the other side that will mean trouble for you and for the candidates you work for. We don't feel any fever over there (except among the most ardent Trumpists, the ones pushing guns and God, but there aren't enough of them to lift a jalopy to the roof). 

(I used to hope, oblivious to arithmetic, but I've learned better. The loss of Harvey Gantt in 1990 scarred my soul. But scar tissue is useful education, along with math.)

Judge Bob Orr,
of Henderson County

Arithmetic was trending my/our way, really since the day after Trump's inauguration when millions of women revolted, and it manifested itself in special election after special election in 2017, where the progressive Democrat regularly won, and culminated in the 2018 Midterms, when Trumpism was rejected every time in the suburbs. Why should we think that that resistance has ebbed by 2020? If anything, it's exploded. Republicans like Judge Bob Orr and the others who are organizing a splinter National Republican Party combined their membership with other never-Trumpers to hold their own on-line convention in Charlotte at the same time as Trump's convention

Judge Bob Orr is the living embodiment of an old-line rural Republicanism that is stand-up virtuous. Judge Bob Orr speaks for a silent minority of other old-line rural Republicans who can hear that splintering sound as a sign from God. Perhaps they know a cult of personality for what it is, a surrender of religious values. Might be something they like to avoid, like a cow patty in the path. How those old-line rural Republicans play will determine the election in North Carolina. 

I hope one thing; I fear another.


Friday, August 28, 2020

Can a Democratic Insurgent Win the Montana US House At-Large Seat?


Why is the Montana At-Large Congressional seat in play? The Cook Political Report has it at "lean Republican" (R+11), but it's an open seat. The Republican who won a special election there in 2017, Greg Gianforte, and who then promptly beat up a reporter from The Guardian and was convicted of misdemeanor assault, has moved on to run for Montana governor (and maybe beat up a different reportorial demographic). 

The Republican on the ballot there this November, Matt Rosendale, won a crowded congressional primary. He has considerable public service to his credit, including one term each in the Montana House and Senate and a term as Montana's auditor. But he also trails a string of high-profile electoral defeats. He was beaten in the 2018 senatorial campaign by incumbent Democrat Jon Tester. In 2014, he ran for the Montana At Large House seat in the Republican primary and came in third. He's very familiar to Montana voters, which in some cases may hurt as much as it helps.

A bigger reason the Montana race is being watched for a possible red-to-blue flip is the overall erosion in the Trumpist Party as both voters and office-holders have grown weary of the Twitterman chaos:

Of the 241 House Republicans in office when Trump was inaugurated in 2017, only 126 (52 percent) are still running for reelection this fall. Incoming GOP members have run on a primary theme of fealty to Trump, with a few exceptions — such as Peter Meijer (MI-03), a self-funder who has run on his military service and barely mentions the president.

Republican Matt Rosendale, who looks old and whose TV spots don't do a thing to dispel that image, is highlighting Donald Trump's endorsement as boilerplate, but as with every other public hugging of Trump by a Republican candidate in this plague year, we have to wonder how much it helps or hurts, even in Montana.

Democrat Kathleen Williams

She's clearly running as a "moderate," but she "fits" Montana and she doesn't strike me as someone who's gonna go DINO on us (I'll be permanently deleting this post if she does). She also has a long record of public service. She served multiple terms in the Montana House, and she ran against incumbent Greg Gianforte in 2018, coming within 4.7 percentage points of beating him. I don't know what her TV spots in 2018 looked like, but I find her not just feisty but appealingly feisty in 2020 (although I do flinch a little that she admits voting for Reagan -- does that look like pandering in Montana?):


Here's her most recent 30-second spot. She's selling character -- that feistiness again! -- and she certainly offers a compelling contrast to the Trump-hugging Rosendale.



The New Democrat Action Fund, which is supporting more centrist Democrats, especially those running in previously red districts, has named Kathleen Williams as a "race to watch."  Okay. You've got our attention. (It can't hurt Williams' chances that the popular Governor Steve Bullock is at the head of the Democratic ticket, running for the US Senate.)

Wednesday, August 26, 2020

And They Said It On Camera

 


Dr. Cameron Webb, a Stand-Out To Flip a US House Seat in VA


I've paid attention to first-time Democratic candidates in our state and in the two states that flank us, north and south. Several of them won their seats 2 years ago. They, and the new young and not-entirely-young Federal candidates of 2020 elevate my spirit -- a pool of talent that's brimming, not drying up. (For the Talent Pool Census, you should add in all the first-time Democratic candidates for NC House and Senate that I've been nattering about all year long. For Federal office:

North Carolina

    Deborah Ross, in the 2nd CD 

    Kathy Manning, in the 6th CD

    Patricia Timmons-Goodson, in the 8th CD

    Cynthia Wallace, in the 9th CD

    Moe Davis, in the 11th CD

    Cal Cunningham, for US Senate 

South Carolina

Joe Cunningham, in the 1st CD

Adair Boroughs, in the 2nd CD

Moe Brown, in the 5th CD

Jaime Harrison, for US Senate

Virginia

Elaine Luria, in the 2nd CD

Cameron Webb, in the 5th CD

Abigail Spanberger, in the 7th CD

Jennifer Wexton, in the 10th CD


I check in on these folks sporadically, trolling for video usually, as I do appreciate production values. Tickled to find this new introduction to Cameron Webb up in the 5th District of Virginia. Way back in the spring, he shared a headline here after his surprise (and out-sized) primary win in the 5th District of Virginia: "The Wow Factor".

I don't know who produced this, but it's good. Highlights a detail for me that sticks because it illuminates character -- that Webb actually served out the end of his White House Fellowship in the  Trump administration and found a way to stick with it, despite the Trump animus toward a hold-over Obama admin advisor. He says they treated him with suspicion, moved his desk into the hall and then took it away altogether, yet when the White House staff was blind-sided by a presidential tweet promising lower drug prices, and because Cameron Webb was there as a medical doctor with valuable experience (not to mention a law degree), they actually asked his advice, and he was able to ameliorate some early Trump admin moves on health care.




Cook Political Report rates the 5th CD of Virginia as "Lean Republican," R + 6. That's an improvement over their earlier "Safe Republican." R + 6 ain't insurmountable, not in a wave year. The 5th is an open seat, after all, and the Republican blow-hard running for it -- a dude ironically named Bob Good -- decided that of all the issues he needed to run on and needed to win with in 2020, gender identity rose right to the top, like a turd full of fiber. He's kind of a bully, especially the way he trashed the incumbent Republican to win his primary. That same specter of bullying the weak that turned so many suburban Republican women against Trump could mean trouble for Good in the suburban sprawl around Charlottesville.

So, yeah, "lean Republican," like a willow leans.

Monday, August 24, 2020

"Whatever Trump Wants" -- Twitterman Tries To Boost Cawthorn


My favorite thing about the Republican National Convention in Charlotte so far -- it's not their "high-risk" gathering in the same room of some 326 official state delegates (six from each state) with assorted functionaries and facilitators, nor the shocking surprise that they intend to renominate Donald J. Trump this very morning -- it's their decision not to write a party platform for 2020. Well, to be fair, they submitted three words: "whatever Trump wants." 

Dudes! You really want to proclaim your total lack of any anchor holding you to A Rock? You want to announce to the voters that you hold nothing in particular sacred any more? Oh, I know you said the 2016 Platform is readopted for 2020 -- and those are your positions still, thank you very much, and "You may go now" -- depart in peace and don't notice that the old 2016 platform contains statehood for Puerto Rico and that little plank on Crimea that got edited to make it more advantageous for Russia. 

We pretty much knew it all along, that you're a colony now under imperial rule. You used to believe -- stoutly and without equivocation -- in certain tenets of foreign policy, of monetary policy, of personal responsibility. Then Trump arrived. Whatever Trump didn't like, you had to not like too, and how humiliating is that, shedding conviction like a snake sluffs skin?

(The 2020 Platform of the Democratic Party was controversial too because -- as usual -- the Democrats wanted to write too much rather than nothing at all, so there were arguments to the death. Progressives gave up the most. The Biden moderates wouldn't adopt "Medicare for All," but tried to placate the progressives: "We are proud our party welcomes advocates who want to build on and strengthen the Affordable Care Act and those who support a Medicare for All approach." The Bernie Sanders camp was actively involved in drafting the platform, and they decided to lose gracefully, a boon.)

Cawthorn met Trump at a July fundraiser
for the president. Still photo from
video published by The Sun.
Cawthorn is seated to the left.
I know well enough that party platforms are wallpaper and nobody pays them any attention except for partisans like me looking for ammunition. It's still a bad look for a major political party to shirk the responsibility of declaring "These Are the Values We Know, We Know."  

Trump will be in Charlotte at noon to accept the nomination, and then he plans to travel to the 11th Congressional District to give young Madison Cawthorn a boost in his campaign to take Mark Meadows' old seat. Trump's been petting Cawthorn like a new mascot. The lad's been given a speaking slot on the convention program. I look for him to play the victim to get past the awkwardness of being called out publicly in recent days for claiming acceptance to enter the Naval Academy when he was never accepted there, and the serial testimony of several young women who've said that Cawthorn pushed himself on them as God's gift to their gender.

Cawthorn's Democratic rival, Col. Moe Davis, has come on strong and relentlessly. Davis has not been afraid to confront Cawthorn's character flaws, his lack of experience even at holding down a job, his willingness to become a partisan puppet. Cawthorn looks increasingly like a would-be Lothario surfer trying to get next to important people.

Trump's actually landing in the small town of Mills River in Henderson County, where Democrat candidate for the state Senate Brian Caskey is also a town commissioner. Caskey tweeted: "I’ve been invited, since I am the Mayor Pro Tem. If you see me in photos, I’ll be the one wearing the
@JoeBiden mask." I'll be watching Caskey's tweets this afternoon.


Friday, August 21, 2020

David Lewis Pleads Guilty to Federal Charges

 

When we covered the sudden announcement by powerful Republican lawmaker David Lewis last July 25th that he was withdrawing from his race for reelection to the NC House from District 53, we said, "It's almost like there's another shoe waiting to drop."

That shoe dropped yesterday when federal prosecutors announced that Rep. Lewis had pleaded guilty to two counts of not filing taxes and making false statements to a bank, in relation to a campaign finance scheme whereby he took money donated to his reelection and used it for personal maintenance. Will Doran reported late yesterday afternoon:

Prosecutors announced shortly after the charges were made public that Lewis would take a plea deal. One of the two charges he faced could have led to a maximum sentence of 30 years in prison. But prosecutors will recommend a much lighter sentence ranging from probation to six months in prison, the plea deal says.

When you're white and powerful, you get deals like that. Just sayin'.

The court document laying out the charges says Lewis came up with a scheme to secretly siphon donors’ money out of his campaign account and put it to personal use.

He reported that his campaign was sending money to the North Carolina Republican Party but in reality, the court document says, he was writing checks to a bank account he controlled. He put the account in the name of a company — which federal prosecutors say never existed — that he called “NC GOP, Inc.” to disguise what was going on.

The charges outline $65,000 that he allegedly took for personal use in August 2018.

Several people on Twitter were sympathizing with Lewis this morning because the financial strains on farmers -- which Lewis is -- are sometimes insurmountable and crushing. True dat. Small family farmers get no respect and little help, while huge corporate farms have lobbyists. We get it. While we can appreciate the struggle Lewis says he's gone through, we grow less sympathetic when we remember that he maybe more than most run-of-the-mill Republicans in the General Assembly had a big hand in blocking the expansion of Medicaid -- which would help many small farmers -- and an even bigger hand in gerrymandering the state to keep his stingy, non-empathetic ilk in power.

Thursday, August 20, 2020

Next Door in Georgia, Both US Senate Seats Are On the Ballot; One Probably Won't Be Settled Until January 2021

 

Sometimes Georgia just confuses the hell out of us!

One US Senate seat in Georgia will be settled on November 3rd, the fate of incumbent Republican David Perdue, who's running for another term against Democrat Jon Ossoff. You may remember Jon Ossoff from a special Georgia election in the 6th CD in 2017, which he lost. We're expecting him to do better this year.

The other US Senate seat in Georgia that's on the November ballot is currently held by Republican hair-model Kelly Loeffler, who was appointed to the seat in January of this year to replace the ailing Johnny Isakson. The November ballot for this seat is actually a primary ballot, because everyone from all parties runs together and if no one gets to 50 percent of the vote -- which seems highly likely, considering there are over 20 candidates -- then the run-off will decide the winner next January.

Kelly Loeffler is often described as the richest member of the Senate, which is saying something. She's a former Wall Street type executive, is married to the president of the Wall Street Stock Exchange, and attracted some attention lately for dumping millions in stock after receiving privileged briefings about the coming COVID catastrophe. She's been let off the hook, apparently, for any wrong-doing, while NC Senator Richard Burr is not off the hook for the same accusation.

The last polling I saw had Loeffler trailing slightly her biggest Republican challenger, Doug Collins, the snarling Trumpist attack dog on the House Judiciary Committee. Frankly, it's entirely possible that the top two finishers in this primary could both be Republicans, though we have high hopes for at least one Democrat making it to the January run-off.

There are at least eight Democrats on the ballot, but the front-runner is generally conceded to be Reverend Raphael Warnock, the pastor of famous Ebernezer Baptist Church in Atlanta. His introductory video biography is polished and compelling:




Warnock turned heads when he posted the highest First Quarter fundraising numbers of any candidate.  He has the support of the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee (DSCC) and of powerhouse Georgia Democrat Stacey Abrams.