House District 63 Could Be a Red-to-Blue Flip

 

Ian Batutis

 

I've been absorbed all morning in the race for House District 63 down in Alamance County. The seat has been held since the elections of 2022 by Republican Steve Ross, but he decided to retire. The open seat is now rated R+2 by JohnLocke.org. Dave's Redistricting gives it a 52% Republican lean. But the Democrats ended up with a candidate who -- on paper, at least -- is one of the strongest I've seen.

"Ended up with." Ian Baltutis, who is now the Democratic candidate, didn't start out as the candidate. He was appointed by Democratic Party leaders in mid-May to take the place of Whitney Olive, who dropped out. Olive had filed in December and had no primary opposition. She had 15 years experience as a public school teacher, was an activist for LGBTQ, but had never run for office before.

Ian Baltutis had run for office before -- and quite successfully in Burlington, serving from 2015 to 2021 as the youngest-ever mayor.  He was heavily recruited to take Olive's place on the ballot, having just returned to the limelight by winning anew a seat on the Burlington City Council last fall. In 2021, he went back to school and earned his master’s degree in City & Regional Planning and Public Administration. His LinkedIn profile: "Ian Baltutis -- Inventor Innovator Entrepreneur." He helped establish the Burlington Beer Works, and he owns Persnickety Books, a local independent bookstore. Last fall Baltutis said of his purpose in life, “I’ve had my hands in a lot of development that’s going on, really from the standpoint of, ‘what does the community need? What kind of activities, business operations would really bring the community together and help create good, positive engagement and development.' ”

He had me at "independent bookstore owner."

He ran the first time for Burlington City Council in 2013, fresh out of Elon with a degree in business entrepreneurship, with no formal platform, but luckily he was guided by the advice to “go knock on doors.” "This grassroots approach allowed him to learn Burlington block by block, gathering residents’ stories and turning them into the foundation of his campaign." Currently, he owns and manages Vibration Solution LLC, an American product design and manufacturing company that he founded during his studies at Elon. "Baltutis is a strong supporter of American manufacturing. He founded his company around the idea of turning the standard business model upside down and creating a company that is lean, efficient and nimble." (NationalDMO).

From his social media, I get the impression he's a human dynamo of ideas and action. His website and he's all over Facebook.

 

Ryan Moffitt, the Republican Candidate

Moffitt was heir apparent, the pick of Republican Party leaders to succeed Steve Ross in an orderly continuity of Republican control. Moffitt announced his candidacy on the same day Ross announced his retirement. He's a young lawyer on the rise, a first-time candidate, and as whitebread as you could ask.

Also clearly energetic, and I see his doing some walking and talking on his Facebook feed -- always a good sign in a campaign. In Moffitt's favor are several factors: Fresh face with no legislative voting record to defend; well-positioned within the local Republican establishment; attorney with a polished professional profile; benefits from the district's Republican lean.

But Baltutis looks to have the edge: Greater political experience; better-known public record; strong résumé on local government, planning, and economic development; likely to appeal to independents and ticket splitters.

Moffitt has an impressive pile of cash-on-hand as of his Second Quarter filing with the Board of Elections, some $114,000, compared to Baltutis's cash-on-hand of $45,000. That lopsided money advantage for Moffitt is at least partially off-set by the former mayor's much greater name recognition. They both look like go-getters, but I give Baltutis a very slight edge.