Wednesday, November 07, 2018

Holy Flippity Flip, Batman!

What happened in these NC House and Senate races that we were watching:

NC HOUSE -- Districts that flipped are highlighted. NOTE: The race in District 103 (Rachel Hunt) is so close that provisional ballots could still win it for Democrats. Bottomline: Republican super-majority has been decisively broken
Winner Christy Clark in NCHD98
Gail Young in NC House District 83 -- incumbent Larry Pittman beat her 52.95% v. 47.05% -- impressive showing by Gail Young
*Christy Clark in Dist. 98 -- is ahead of incumbent John Bradford by 333 votes. Provisional ballots and mail-in absentees still to be counted
Joe Fowler in Dist. 76 -- was easily beaten by incumbent Harry Warren
Steven Buccini in Dist. 59 -- beaten by incumbent Jon Hardister, who took almost 57% of the vote
Dan Besse in Dist. 75 -- made a respectable showing (almost 47%) against incumbent Donny Lambeth
Marcia Morgan in Dist. 19 -- incumbent Ted Davis beat her by less than a thousand votes and couldn't reach 50% of the total because of a Libertarian in the race
*Terence Everitt in Dist. 35 -- beat Republican veteran incumbent Chris Malone with 51% of the vote
*Brandon Lofton in Dist. 104 -- won this district with 51.63% of the vote
Rhonda Schandevel in Dist. 118 -- lost her rematch with incumbent Michele Presnell
*Joe Sam Queen in Dist. 119 -- took his old seat back from Republican Mike Clampitt
Lowell Simon in Dist. 52 -- was easily defeated by the Republican
*Ashton Clemmons in Dist. 57 -- buried her Republican opponent with 67.53% of the vote
Leslie Cohen in Dist. 20 -- was edged out by a slim margin of 2,000 votes
*Kandie Smith in Dist. 8 -- buried her Republican opponent
Sam Edney in Dist. 113 -- didn't come close against the Republican
Rick Foulke in Dist. 68 -- didn't come close against the Republican
Dan Whitten in Dist. 15 -- was buried by his Republican opponent
Darryl Moss in Dist. 2 -- easily beaten
Linda Bennett in Dist. 26 -- easily beaten
Erica McAdoo in Dist. 63 -- heartbreaker! She's 295 votes behind Republican Stephen Ross
Wendy B. Sellers in Dist. 80 -- buried by the Republican
*Wesley Harris in Dist. 105 -- won, taking over 52% of the vote
Susan Maxon in Dist. 109 -- easily beaten by the Republican. Interestingly, write-in candidates took 77 votes
Albeiro Florez in Dist. 45 -- only took 41.54% of the vote

Ron Wesson in Dist. 1 -- took 46.88% of the vote against the Republican
Kim Bost in Dist. 96 -- attractive candidate in an impossible district
*Zack Hawkins in Dist. 31 -- a foregone conclusion ... took 80.99% of the vote. This is not a flip, as the seat was held by Democrat Mickey Michaux for years 
*James D. Gailliard in Dist. 25 -- won this district with 51.43% of the vote
Tess Judge in Dist. 6 -- lost in her second try for this seat
*Sydney Batch in Dist. 37 -- won against the Republican with 49.76% of the vote, with a Libertarian also in the race
Rachel Hunt in Dist. 103 -- is 52 votes behind Republican Bill Brawley. Provisional ballots still to be counted. It ain't over!
*Julie von Haefen in Dist. 36 -- is 687 votes against Republican powerhouse Nelson Dollar
*Ray Russell in Dist. 93 -- edged out incumbent Jonathan Jordan with 52% of the vote
Barbara Yates-Lockamy in Dist. 46 -- hardly ran a campaign and lost badly
David Brinkley in Dist. 111 -- wouldn't run against incumbent Tim Moore's corruption and lost badly
Aimy Steele in Dist. 82 -- took a respectable 47% of the vote against Republican Linda Johnson
Terri LeGrand in Dist. 74 -- another heartbreaker ... lost to Republican Debra Conrad with 45.36% of the vote
Martha Shafer in Dist. 62 -- beaten

NCSENATE -- Republican super-majority has been broken
Winner Natasha Marcus
in NCSD 41
*Natasha Marcus Dist. 41 -- easily beat Republican incumbent Jeff Tarte
Mack Paul in NC Senate District 18 -- barely beaten by Republican John Alexander, who took 49.85% of the vote in a three-way race
*Harper Peterson in Dist. 9 -- is ahead of his Republican opponent by a mere 36 votes, with many provisional ballots still to be counted. A Libertarian candidate appears to have taken important votes from the Republican
Ginger Garner in Dist. 2 -- attractive candidate, beaten badly
Helen Probst Mills in Dist. 25 -- lost to incumbent Republican Tom McInnis
Ric Vandett in Dist 42 -- lost badly in a really difficult district
Caroline Walker in Dist. 35 -- another really attractive candidate who couldn't make a go against the Republican running for an open seat
*Sam Searcy in Dist. 17 -- took 50.44% of the vote against incumbent Republican Tamara Barringer
Cheraton Love in Dist. 29 -- was buried by the Republican
Bobby Kuppers in Dist. 50 -- buried
Jen Mangrum in Dist. 30 -- our greatest heartbreak ... she lost to bully Phil Berger but was an inspiration to thousands
*Wiley Nickel in Dist. 16 -- won easily in a three-way race
J. D. Wooten in Dist. 24 -- lost, but took a respectable 46% of the vote
*Michael K. Garrett in Dist. 27 -- is ahead of the poisonous Republican Trudy Wade by 763 votes
*Kirk DeViere in Dist. 19 -- won against Wesley Meredith, with 50.26% of the vote
*Mujtaba Mohammed in Dist. 38 -- buried his Republican opponent with over 81% of the vote. This is not a flip, as the district was previously held by a Democrat, whom Mujtaba defeated in the primary

A Note on Gerrymandering and the Current Unconstitutional District Lines in North Carolina

You don't think it makes a difference who draws the district lines?

Yesterday for the NC House -- GOP won 55% of the seats but only 48.5% of the votes. Democrats took 50.9% of the votes but won only 45% of the seats.

For the NC Senate -- GOP won 58% of the seats with only 50.5% of the votes. Democrats took 48.6% of the votes but won only 42% of the seats.

Statistics from Jonathan Kappler

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