The Early Voting Line at AppState, 1st Day

 

This photo is time-stamped 12:15 p.m. today. The line continued behind the photographer and down a long hallway.

Early Voting Hours Shortened, But Days Are Added

 

Kara Haselton, The Appalachian

Last evening the Watauga County Board of Elections -- given leave by the General Assembly to do so -- shortened early voting hours from the previously mandated 8-7:30 p.m. down to 9-5, classical banker's hours which do working people no favors. Especially in a flood zone

But to make up for that slight to inclusiveness, the Watauga BOE added early voting on two additional Saturdays, 9-5, and two Sundays, 1-5. (After all these centuries, we still genuflect to the Church.)

But that being said, get thee to a polling place! Five early voting sites will be operational: 

The Watauga County Administration Building at 814 W. King Street.

Blowing Rock American Legion Building at 333 Wallingford Street, Blowing Rock.

Deep Gap Fire Department at 6583 Old 421 S, Deep Gap.

Plemmons Student Union at 263 Locust Street.

Western Watauga Community Center at 1081 Old US Highway 421, Sugar Grove.

Watauga Voting Rights Task Force Goes To Court

 

Next Thursday, December 28, an important request for an injunction to enjoin part of S 747, "Elections Law Changes," goes in front of Federal Judge Thomas D. Schroeder in the Middle District of North Carolina for a ruling. The sweeping S 747 ultimately passed by veto override in the General Assembly on October 10th.

Watauga Co Voting Rights Task Force (WCVRT) et al. v State Bd of Elections and Philip E. Berger et al. targets one particular section of S 747, "same-day" voter registration, specifically the "undeliverable mail provision" which can disenfranchise same-day registrants because of stupid postal or clerical errors. 

Following the General Election of 2022, the WCVRT tracked same-day registrants whose votes were challenged because a card-mailing to their addresses of record was returned as undeliverable, almost always because of computer or clerical error. The same-day registrants were qualified voters but were in jeopardy because of dumb mistakes. For example, mail was returned that had been directed to Ms. Xxxxx Xxxxx, address "SAME." "Same"? Because there are two lines for addresses on VR forms -- the 1st one for a physical residential address and the second for a mailing address if different from the physical address. When Ms. XXXX appeared at her polling location during early voting to update her address and cast a ballot, the poll worker wrote her residential address on the 1st line and wrote "Same" on the second.

Dumb stuff like that can disenfranchise a voter, but S 747 went even further in targeting young voters. The law as passed would not only throw out a ballot of an "undeliverable mail" addressee -- it will do so automatically, with no notice nor means of appeal for the voter -- but also cancel the voter registration itself.

The WCVRT came to the defense of same-day voters. Meanwhile, Judge Schroeder has his own history of rulings on election law changes. In 2016, the Republican bosses in Raleigh, in the same bill mandating voter photo ID, attempted to end same-day registration altogether. That omnibus law also cut early-voting by a week; ended preregistration, which allowed people to sign up before their 18th birthdays; and repealed the provision that counted out-of-precinct ballots. The NAACP sued for an injunction against the entire law, which came before Judge Schroeder, who in April 2016 ruled it all perfectly fine by him. Fortunately, that decision was soon overturned by the 4th Circuit Court of Appeals, which ruled it all unconstitutional.

The Election Law Vetoes That Will Be Overridden Today

 

S 747 removes the 3-day "grace period" for getting mail-in ballots to boards of elections. Under this law, all mail-in ballots must be received by Election Day. Gov. Cooper vetoed this bill on August 24th.

S 749 completely restructures all local and state boards of elections so that deadlock is assured with equal numbers of Democrats and Republicans, all of them dug into partisan bunkers (unless one Democrat decides to cave because he just wants everyone to get along.) Cooper vetoed on September 28th.

While Republicans say the even split on the boards will lead to more bipartisan decisions, critics of the idea say it could lead to deadlock on important issues such as where to place early voting sites and certifying election results, potentially sending that to courts or the General Assembly to resolve.

Under state law, if there’s deadlock on where to place early voting sites, a county would default to having a single site. (Michael Hyland)

And that's precisely how the Republicans in Watauga can get rid of a polling site on the AppState campus, going around a court order due to stalemate on the Board of Elections. The default when the Board can't agree on an early voting plan is that there is only one early voting site available in that county -- the local board office.

Yeah, that's the kind of chaos the Republicans have created.

I Will Be Voting and I Will Be Voting Early

 

With pundits and polls predicting relentlessly that Republicans are cruising to major wins this November, taking back power where they've lost it and consolidating power where they already hold it (like in North Carolina), I'm if anything bewildered, as in its original meaning of being stranded in a wilderness with no map out.

Why? Why would voters want more Republicans? In positions of great authority, where they can tell you you're going to breed whether you want to or not? Or simply decree ("just fine 364 more votes") that the votes of certain people don't count, so their side wins -- always, in perpetuity, to the ending of time itself? Or unleash local governments, businesses, and individuals to harass queer people because to bully is next to godliness.

When they buy themselves a Supreme Court majority through their Trump tool, and that majority intends to impose ideology on the law?

They intend to force election outcomes into their column, and they'll stop at nothing. A con man is their god.

Who wants more of that?

Pardon me, but putting them in control is deranged.

Statistics From First Day of Early Voting 2020, Watauga County

1st Day of Early Voting, 2018

Turn-out at the various early voting sites: 

ADMIN Bldg., Downtown Boone 637 

ASU, Plemmons Student Union 766 

Blowing Rock 353

Deep Gap VFD 496 

FOSCO, High Country Vacation Homes 217 

Western Watauga Community Center 351 

Total 2,820

Party affiliation across all sites: 

1,065 were Democrats 

696 were Republicans

1,029 were Unaffiliated

 

BREAKING: Temporary Restraining Order to Stop ASU Student Union Early Voting Is DENIED

 

A Wake County Superior Court judge just denied t a temporary restraining order to halt early voting in the Appalachian State University Student Union. The TRO had been sought by two Republican members of the Watauga County Board of Elections, Eric Eller and Nancy Owen.

AppState College Republicans Split With Watauga GOP

 

Appalachian State College Republicans are pissed that the two Republican members of the Watauga Board of Elections are suing to prevent early voting in the ASU student union. The lawsuit filed by Republicans Eric Eller and Nancy Owen barely a month before early voting is scheduled to commence drew this response from River Collins, president of AppState College Republicans: “I’m not going to lie. To see my party here do that is very disappointing. I didn’t like it at all. It made me furious honestly.”

Even the president of the AppState chapter of Turning Point USA criticized Eller and Owen: “Attempting to move this polling precinct less than 30 days before the election will only result in a mess to the community during early voting and election day.” Turning Point USA is a pro-Trump conservative group which maintains a "Professor Watchlist" of teachers who, it alleges, discriminate against conservative students and advance what it considers to be left-wing propaganda in the classroom.

Once again, our congrats to Eller and Owen and their lawyer Nathan Miller for continuing to alienate young voters, especially those most likely to support their side. That takes real talent!

Watauga GOP Breaks the Furniture in Its Charm Offensive To Win the Affection of AppState Voters

Eric Eller, far left, with Nancy Owen next to him
in the middle

First, Republican member of the Watauga Board of Elections, Eric Eller, addressed a letter to AppState Police Chief Andrew Stephenson last July 8th, raising the specter that Black Lives Matter activists might threaten voters at on-campus voting sites. 

When that letter became public on the AppState campus, an uproar ensued in which student government leaders demanded that Eller resign his seat on the BOE. Eller refused to resign. He also refused to apologize.

The other four members of the Watauga BOE, including the other Republican member Nancy Owen, sent a letter to AppState student government leaders apologizing for Eller's letter and disavowing that he spoke for them in expressing fear of Black students. The letter said in part:

... [Eller's] letter was not authorized by the Board of Elections. It was the action of one member acting on his own. The letter does reference “our board” and “our agenda” and is signed by the individual as “Member, Watauga County Board of Elections”. A reader could certainly infer that it was written on behalf of the Board. It was not.

Members of the Board of Elections are nominated by political parties, but we are then pledged to work in a non-partisan manner. When this letter was written, we were working together on plans for holding an election during a pandemic. To some of us, it seemed the better course not to publicize a letter with which we disagreed, but rather to move on. We knew that the writer did not speak for the Board, but we failed to make that clear to the public we serve. Avoiding conflict then has allowed for misunderstanding, suspicion and pain now. Our neglect was wrong, and we apologize....

Eller then doubled-down, herded fellow Republican Nancy Owen with him, and with the masterful lawyering of Nathan Miller, sued the State Board of Elections for approving a Watauga Early Voting Plan that put an early voting site in the AppState Student Union. How he and Owen have standing to sue is still an open question in this household, but the continued brilliance of the Watauga GOP in wooing the youth vote surpasses previous years of their feverish attempts to block, thwart, hobble, and otherwise discourage ballot access on the AppState campus.

Congratulations are in order.

News Flash: Republican Members of Watauga Board of Elections Seek Injunction Against Early Voting Site in AppState's Student Union

 

Eric Eller and Nancy Owen, the Republican members of the Watauga County Board of Elections, have filed a complaint in the Wake County Superior Court seeking to block an early voting site in the Appalachian State University student union.

Eller and Owen are represented by Boone attorney Nathan Miller, who has a long history of bringing suits to suppress the student vote.

Eller and Owen are asking for an expedited hearing on their complaint. Early voting is due to begin October 15.

Early Voting, 2020 Primary--Watauga County Compared to Rest of State

According to Dr. Michael Bitzer, Democratic turnout for early voting in the current primary election went up some 33% statewide. In some 27 counties, Democratic turnout shot up like a rocket:

Increase over 2016's Democratic Early Vote

Wake 79%
Union 78%
Iredell 74%
Yadkin 73%
Brunswick 70%
New Hanover 63%
Northampton 63%
Mecklenburg 59%
Forsyth 56%
Moore 56%
Alamance 55%
Henderson 51%
Guilford 47%
Johnston 45%
Bertie 44%
Stokes 41%
Currituck 40%
Lincoln 39%
Anson 38%
Durham 36%
Chatham 35%
Harnett 34%
Gates 34%
Transylvania 34%
Pamilco 34%
Cabarrus 34%
Buncombe 33%

(Can't look at that chart without marveling over Yadkin's showing. What's going on in Yadkin, where you could hardly find a Democrat a few years ago?)

Meanwhile, in Watauga County, overall (all party) early voting turnout was down in 2020 (5,915 total votes cast) compared to early voting in the 2016 primary (7,215 total votes). Turnout by party affiliation was also down: Democrats down 17% from 2016; Unaffiliateds down 24%; and Republicans down a whopping 52% (whopping considering all the Republican primary races on their party's ballot). In fact, the overall voter turnout in Watauga for early voting was down primarily because some 800 Republicans who showed up in 2016 didn't bother to show up in 2020 -- at least not during early voting. Maybe they all were waiting for tomorrow.

Republican primary races aren't energizing Watauga Republicans, and Democratic primary races aren't energizing Democratic voters like they were energized in 2016, though they're clearly more engaged in Watauga than the Republicans.

Gen-Z Turning Out in NC Primary Elections

From the indefatigable Gerry Cohen just now:

NC campus early voting sites through Monday (note many votes may be faculty/staff) NCSU 1140 Duke 681 AppState 564 FayState 426 ECU 391 UNC-CH* 337 NCCU 317 UNC-C 283 UNC-G 215 WSSU 204 WCU 155 A&T 141


Additional numbers from Watauga County. Of 1,011 total voters cast at all early voting sites through Feb. 17:

45% D
19% R
36% U
Of the 359 U's who voted, 82% chose a Democratic ballot.

There's Something Happening Here...

15,517 voted early in Watauga County through Saturday, November 3 (that number includes mail-in absentee ballots and 713 same-day registrations, some of which may end up not counting)

Party breakdown (excluding the same-days): 

35% D
28% R
37% U

For comparison, 7,865 voted early in Watauga County in the last mid-term election of 2014. In 2014, the total vote in Watauga, including Early and Election Day = 17,197.

In other words, O my brethren, the Early Vote in Watauga in 2018 is just 1,680 votes shy of the total turnout in 2014.

FWIW.

For more comparison, here are state-wide numbers (courtesy Jonathan Kappler):

This was the scene yesterday morning at the Early Voting station on the campus of NC State University in Raleigh:

It's the Data, Stupid!

If you read the daily polls ... you're nuts. I avert my gaze, as soon as I know I'm about to see somebody's guess based on telephone calls to 400, 800, 1,200 randomly selected voters, whether they be "likely" voters, merely "registered" voters, or some other ad hoc group of goddamned voters. I don't believe those polls, and being altogether human, I'm charmed by the ones that make my side look good-to-go, and it's a terrible trap to begin to believe. Remember Clinton v. Trump, October 2016? So it's best to avert the gaze altogether.

But I do pay attention to Early Voting trends, especially partisan turnout percentages and comparisons to 2014. Generally speaking for 2018: Mid-term turnout is up over 2014 (but not up over 2016, a presidential year). Statewide, partisan edge goes to Democrats, with 43% of the Early Voting turnout through Oct. 30:

Old North State Politics

Locally in Watauga County, Republicans are doing even worse: out of 11,648 total votes, 37% D, 27% R, and 37% U.

Caution: We've learned through the history of Early Voting in NC that Republicans have always underutilized the option. They preferred to come out on election day, sometimes in waves that overwhelmed the Democrats ... like in 1994 and 2010. The Early Voting traffic at the Watauga rural satellite sites -- where most of the Republicans live -- has been historically and remains cold this year, like a corpse.

Deep Gap Volunteer Fire Dept. -- 7% of the total Early Vote

Meat Camp Volunteer Fire Dept. -- 5%

Western Watauga Community Center -- 9%

These Republican neighborhoods may be building some Republican surge. We can't tell. Sure doesn't look like it.

In Watauga, -- and across the state -- it's the Unaffiliated who hold the power. And maybe some well educated Republican women (as predicted by many and written up again this morning in the NYTimes).

Here's the $1.98 question: Are the Republican candidates getting out new or otherwise infrequent Republican voters? Have they expanded their base? Is immigrant-fear sufficient drug for educated Republican women (and some educated men)?

Will the Republicans come flooding out next Tuesday, by their thousands and tens of thousands, to overwhelm the little blue ripple of Democratic pushback in North Carolina? We've seen it happen before, like in 1994 and 2010. How is this year feeling? I'll take your intuition over the polls.

How the Republican General Assembly May Have Screwed Their Own Voters

Played a lot of Hearts when I was in college and living in a dorm. The local vernacular for that card game -- at a Southern Baptist college with strict rules -- was "f**k your buddy." Because you could slip your dorm-mate, on any dealt hand, a deadly grenade with the pin pulled.

I'm thinking f**k your buddy was the game Berger/Moore were inadvertently playing last June in the General Assembly when they changed (once again) the Early Voting law, a change that has ultimately hurt Republican voters in rural areas. Here's the play-by-play:

Members of Wake Co Bd of Elections
discuss Early Voting locations,
July 10, 2018.
Photo WRAL

In the waning hours of the session...

A. June 13 -15, 2018: New law is written and hurried through both chambers in a flat 40 hours on party-line votes mandating that early voting locations in each county be open uniformly from 7 a.m. to 7 p.m. on weekdays. Republican lawmakers say the changes were important "to ensure consistency within counties, cut down on voter confusion, and expand hours for casting ballots." All high-minded shit. But everyone knowledgeable about Berger/Moore knew the ulterior motive: With a mandate of 12-hour days at every site, some counties would be forced to retrench. The prejudice against Early Voting is based on Democrats' loving it and Republicans under-utilizing it.

NOTE: Early Voting has been one of the chief targets of Berger/Moore in squashing the votes of their opponents. Republicans have resisted Early Voting and tend to roll out on Election Day itself. So the reasoning must have gone: If you squeeze the dollar resources of small counties, then you force more Early Voting into the offices of the local Board of Elections, which will discourage Democrats. (And that's what the presently proposed Constitutional Amendment is all about. With a 4-4 partisan split on the board, no contested Early Voting plans from any county can get approval, which means, under statute language, all Early Voting in that county must take place in the office of the Board of Elections, and only in that office, which is often a small space in the county courthouse.)

B. June 25: Governor Cooper vetoes the rewrite of the Early Voting law.

C. June 27: NC House completes the override of the governor's veto, and Senate Bill 325 becomes law.

And ... surprise! The law is possibly biting Republicans harder than Democrats.

A WRAL-TV investigation of 70 NC counties that had to reduce Early Voting plans because of the new mandate found that rural voters have been disproportionately impacted by the new law:

With some Early Voting satellite sites now closed because of lack of funding, voters in some rural counties are disproportionately farther away from their nearest early voting location. A greater percentage of white and Republican voters have farther to travel.

Some 70 counties, but not true in Watauga. Every rural Early Voting site we had in 2016 is still open in 2018, and now open for very long 12-hour days. The Watauga County Commission (majority Democrat) coughed up the extra money to keep all satellite sites open 12 hours a day for the entire 17-day period. That takes a lot more money for additional salaries for workers as well as incidental expenses. Before the law changed, Watauga could vary the hours to maximize use and save money. For example, the ASU site was previously open a fraction of the full time.

The Republican excuse for changing the law was to "cut down on voter confusion," they said, which may be the greatest laugh-line of 2018.

Some Watauga County and Statewide Early Voting Numbers

11,648 TOTAL have voted in Watauga County during Early Voting (through Oct. 31)

37% D
27% R
37% U

Happy belated Halloween.

And now this, about the whole state during Early Voting 2018, which shows numbers this year running well ahead of 2010 and 2014 (the last two first-term mid-term elections) but behind 2016, which was a presidential year ... from Old North State Politics:

Update on Watauga County Early Voting

As of Wednesday, October 24:

7,310 total votes (counting mail-in returns)

Percentages of that total by party affiliation:

D = 39%

R = 24%

U = 37%

Early Voting Trend in Watauga After 3 Days

Watauga County early voting through yesterday, counting returned mail-in ballots: 4,276 total votes.

Voters by Party:

41% D
23% R
36% U

Sign of the Times

Early Vote Totals, Day One, 2018 General Elections

Watauga County Early Voting Sites (in numerical order):

➽ Appalachian State University Plemmons Student Union 723 

➽ Watauga County Administration Building 530 

➽ Western Watauga Community Center 141  

➽ Blowing Rock Town Hall 136  

➽ Deep Gap Fire Department 99 

➽ Meat Camp Fire Department 72 

Trendlines
Of those 1,701 total voters yesterday in Watauga (in numerical order)...

43% Ds

34% Us (Independent)

22% Rs 

As always, the Unaffiliated hold the key in Watauga.

Watauga BOE Votes Unanimously for Early Voting Plan for the May Primary Which Includes ASU Student Union

Jane Anne Hodges

Bill Aceto is gone from the Watauga Board of Elections, and it's a brave new world.

The newly constituted Watauga Board of Elections, with two Republicans and two Democrats, voted unanimously for the May primary early voting plan submitted by Democrats Jane Anne Hodges and Richard Rapfogel:

Watauga County Admin Bldg, 814 W King St. -- early voting opens on Thursday, April 19, 8 a.m. - 5 p.m., and continues every weekday through Friday, May 4th, and concludes Saturday, May 5th, when the polling place will be open 8 a.m. - 1 p.m.

Satellite sites:

ASU Student Union -- early voting opens on Monday, April 30, 10 a.m. - 6 p.m., and continues that week through Friday, May 5

Blowing Rock Town Hall -- early voting opens on Monday, April 30, 10 a.m. - 6 p.m., and continues that week through Friday, May 5

Deep Gap Fire Department -- early voting opens on Monday, April 30, 10 a.m. - 6 p.m., and continues that week through Friday, May 5

Meat Camp Fire Department -- early voting opens on Monday, April 30, 10 a.m. - 6 p.m., and continues that week through Friday, May 5

Western Watauga Community Center -- early voting opens on Monday, April 30, 10 a.m. - 6 p.m., and continues that week through Friday, May 5


Democrat Jane Anne Hodges, the former director of elections for many years, was elected chair of the board by unanimous vote. Republican Nancy Owen was elected vice chair and Democrat Richard Rapfogel, secretary.