Be Happy! Watauga in the New 14th CD

 

Except for Virginia Foxx's residential precinct, the rest of Watauga County is now the northernmost chunk of the new 14th Congressional District, and the blue voters here make everything better for every Democrat south of us. The Princeton Gerrymandering Project rates the district with a 46.13% Democratic vote share and a 53.69% Republican share. Those are numbers any congressional candidate, especially any candidate running against the likes of Madison Cawthorn, should be able to work with and build on.

Here are the Democratic candidates (alpha order) that I know about, with more probably arriving presently:

Jasmine Beach-Ferrara (D)

Jay Carey (D)

Katie Dean (D)

Eric Gash (D)

Bo Hess (D)

Josh Remillard (D)

Brooker Smith (D)

Chelsea White (D)

Two days ago on Twitter, Dr. Steve Woodsmall, retired USAF major and a former Democratic primary candidate in both 2018 and in 2020 for the 11th CD nomination, made an announcement in reaction to more juvenilia from Cawthorn (Cawthorn had threatened anyone who opposed him with violent retribution):

Woodsmall

This is the last straw. I am now ready to run against this lowlife little twerp but since a Dem can’t win here I will run unaffiliated IF y’all can help me get the 9400 petition signatures to get on the ballot!

After his primary loss to the 2020 Democratic congressional candidate Moe Davis, Woodsmall left the party and has seemed bitter about it. In 2018, I profiled Woodsmall here with his primary opponents. In 2020, I did it again here.

So far as Woodsmall's opinion that "a Dem can't win here," I reject that, especially when the opponent is a juicy spectacle like Madison Cawthorn. Adult Republicans are also sick of his immaturity and preening self-regard, and the right candidate from the list above could rally the Dems and the Unaffiliated to beat him. Not, however (probably), if there's a third candidate draining away the independents.

Watauga Chopped Up in New NC House District Map

 

Above, NC House districts for the next decade -- barring judicial interference. This map overall graded F by the Princeton Gerrymandering Project. The opinion of Watauga voters in Blue Ridge and Elk precincts -- unprintable in a G-rated blog. Blue Ridge and Elk precincts have been added to the 87th House District, which is mainly Caldwell County where Destin Hall holds the seat. Hall, incidentally, is the Republican chair of the House redistricting committee, and he drew the map.

Blowing Rock precinct is left in House District 93, which means that Ray Pickett was allowed to keep his district. District 93 also now includes Allegheny County. The Princeton Gerrymandering Project rates the partisan divide 41.68% Democratic to 58.22% Republican.

This map and the NC Senate map are not targets of the law suit filed yesterday in Wake County. That legal challenge will move forward in state courts, beginning with a three-judge panel to be appointed by Chief Justice Paul Newby. The suit complains only about the 14 US congressional districts (which also chops up Watauga so that Congresswoman Virginia Foxx can be rid of most of us Wataugans while retaining the core of her red district). Surely there will follow suits against the NC House and NC Senate redistricting.

Deanna Ballard, Double-Bunked with Ralph Hise in the New 47th Senate District

 

Here's the new map for the 50 NC Senate seats. Watauga is entirely within the new 47th District. The Princeton Gerrymandering Project gave the whole map an F for "partisan fairness." Dist. 47 will have a Democratic vote share of 36.77% against the Republican share of 63.23%.

Interestingly, Sen. Ralph Hise of Spruce Pine, the Republican head of the redistricting committee, drew himself and Sen. Deanna Ballard into the same district. I suspect that Ballard is now toast, if she decides to challenge Hise in the 2022 primaries.

It All Comes Down to Sheri Everts

Last Wednesday, Oct. 27th, some ambitious faculty members at Appalachian State University -- alarmed by the chancellor's governing style and her administration's evident ambition to bend town government to the maximum benefit of ASU -- invited everyone from the university and everyone from the non-university community to come to a town hall in the county library and air both grievances and potential solutions for a major university's tendency to eat the town of Boone. The town hall was organized by ClimAct, a student environmental club, and the Appalachian State chapter of the American Association of University Professors (AAUP). Clark Maddux, American Studies specialist, presided.

Today the High Country Press published both a detailed account of the town hall and a response to the criticism submitted by Megan Hayes, Associate Vice Chancellor and Chief Communications Officer for ASU -- Chancellor Sheri Everts' flack. You have to scroll way down for Hayes's answer to the townhall, though you may end up wondering why she would have taken the time for this, pablum-stained wallpaper about how Chancellor Everts has lots of meetings with lots of university groups. And she'll keep on meeting.

In that same High Country Press article, and following Megan Hayes's non-answer to the mounting criticism, Clark Maddux answers Hayes:

“Whenever any faculty member, or group of faculty members, decides that we are going to do anything that could appear faintly critical of the chancellor, the Board of Trustees or the Board of Governors, we ask ourselves, do we need to hire a lawyer? And what is she or what is the board going to do in retaliation? That says a lot about the environment that she creates … She’s had six years to become a partner with this community. And all of the so-called conversations and listening sessions and programs that she holds have clearly not done that. She has not created a partnership with this community. And so I think it’s up to faculty who care about the community to do that.”

An environment of retaliation. 

I know faculty members who are visibly squeamish about any show of political thought -- even bumperstickers on their cars, or receiving email from hell-raisers like me. They often express outright fear that the administration will notice and come down on them. While well known members of the Board of Trustees feel perfectly free to strut their political stuff.

The Berger Dominion

So there's a watershed legal case testing a judge's duty for recusal currently in the hands of the North Carolina Supreme Court, and here's where it started:

2018 -- Republican majorities in the General Assembly, led by Phil Berger and Tim Moore, put two ballot initiatives to the voters, who passed them -- a mandate for a voter photo ID and a constitutional cap on state income taxes. (The GOP's previous attempt to impose voter photo IDs had been ruled unconstitutional.)

2019 -- A North Carolina trial judge strikes down the amendments, declaring that since many legislators were illegitimately elected from what were previously declared as racially biased districts, they lacked the power to put the questions on the ballot.

2020 -- NC Court of Appeals overturns that trial court decision, and the case gets appealed to the NC Supreme Court.

Phil Berger Jr. 

August 2021 -- Supreme Court schedules arguments by opposing sides but pauses the proceedings after the NAACP requests that justices Phil Berger Jr. and Tamara Barringer recuse themselves from hearing the case. The reasons for recusal: Berger is the son of one of the defendants and Barringer voted for passage of the amendments as an NC senator.

30 Seconds Later -- NCGOP begins howling about a Democratic power grab at the Court.

“The attempt to disqualify them from hearing cases the voters elected them to hear is a subversion of the will of the people and an insult to every informed voter,” said House Speaker Tim Moore, who is also named as a defendant in the NAACP lawsuit.

October 2021 -- A majority of the Supreme Court votes to take the issue seriously -- should Berger and Barringer recuse themselves or be forcibly recused? The Court is 4 Ds to 3 Rs, so over the strenuous dissents by the Republican minority, the Democratic majority decides to halt proceedings until briefs can be submitted by both sides addressing 20 questions about judicial recusal, especially this one: “Does this court have the authority to require the involuntary recusal of a justice who does not believe that self-recusal is appropriate?” Those legal briefs were due at the court this week.

According to the Associated Press, that question alone suggests that one, or both (Berger and Barringer), have indicated that they would not recuse themselves. "Neither responded to a request for comment that The Associated Press asked a court spokesperson to pass along to them."

Did the trial judge back in 2019 go way out on a legal limb? I personally wouldn't want to put all my weight on that particular twig, that a legally elected official's acts are illegitimate because the district that elected him was racially biased. He/she was elected and had no control over who made up the electorate.

Phil Berger Sr.

The case for Berger Junior's recusal seems so obvious it hurts my eyes. The state judicial conduct code says judges should disqualify themselves "when asked by a legal party," if they have “personal knowledge of disputed evidentiary facts” or if the judge’s near-relative is “a party to the proceeding.”

The judicial conduct code requires disqualification even if a near relative can in fact be "impartial and capable of presiding fairly over the matter before them,” NAACP attorney Kym Hunter wrote in July. Berger Junior will for sure never recuse himself. Will his fellow justices let him get away with that and further taint the North Carolina judiciary?

Boone Voters Reject the AppPAC

 

The Appalachian PAC's chosen candidates got buried last night in Boone's municipal elections. Both Eric Woolridge and Benjamin Ray finished well behind the three Democratic winners in the main contest:

Todd Carter 1,042

Virginia Roseman 1,027

Jon Dalton George 986

Eric Woolridge 531

Benjamin Ray 399

The AppPAC had billed itself as "non-partisan" and went well out of its way to try to live up to that billing by also endorsing Democrat Edie Tugman in the race to fill two unexpired terms. Tugman incidentally rejected the endorsement. The PAC also endorsed Democrat Tim Futrelle for mayor, but he was running unopposed and was going to win anyway.

Looks like a winners' mandate to me.

Todd Carter, Edie Tugman, Tim Futrelle, Jon Dalton George, and Virginia Roseman

AppState's Student Newspaper Probes the AppPAC

Ethan Hunt, reporter for The Appalachian newspaper, has up this morning a lengthy, in-depth investigation into the Appalachian PAC and its possible water-carrying for the university. 

It's a little late to be of much utility in this municipal election today, but it's notable for its thoroughness.

Hunt's reporting is also notable for upstaging the Watauga Democrat, a newspaper that might have done the same investigation but didn't. Or at least didn't publish anything, if a reporter there did in fact look into the story of heavy university connections behind some candidates for the BooneTown Council.

Here's the Correct NC Senate Map

 

Sorry. This proposed Congressional redistricting map supersedes the map posted below.

And some further thoughts on it by Brian Murphy:

Potential new NC districts with incumbents: 

1: Murphy 

2: Butterfield 

3: Rouzer 

4: open 

5: Ross 

6: Price retiring 

7: open 

8: Bishop (tho he lives in 9) 

9: Adams 10: 

Hudson 

11: Foxx/Manning 

12: McHenry 

13: open 

14: Cawthorn

The 13th has obviously been designed for the comfort of NC House Speaker Tim Moore, who wants to pursue prospects in Washington and needs a new seat of power.

A New Congressional District Map--This Could Be Your Future, Watauga

You may have to squint below to see that little finger of crookedness poking up into Watauga County (yellow) from Caldwell (pink). (There's a bigger, better image on the NC Senate redistricting site.) What used to be Virginia Foxx's 5th District gets renumbered as the new CD 11, and most of us in Watauga -- 19 out of 20 precincts -- get combed out of Foxx's fur to be the northern-most pains-in-the-ass in the new 14th CD, which would be mainly Madison Cawthorn's old 11th. (Hello, Madison!)

This map has been officially submitted in the NC Senate by the Republican majority, good Christian gentlemen all. But not to fret, O my Brethren. This map will still face negotiation with the Republican majority in the House, and who knows what we're going to end up with. This map at least represents pretty much a contender in the "how low will they go" sweepstakes. 

As far as the NC Senate Republicans are concerned, and to state the obvious: With this map at least, Virginia Foxx gets to keep the core of her old Fifth District, minus the bulk of Watauga County, which has only rarely even voted for her -- her first race and one other in a total of nine reelection campaigns. Watauga can't stand her.

(NOTE: This version of the NC Senate proposal is according to NC Policy Watch and Lynn Bonner, but the map I see at the link above has a very different Dist. 9, and 10, etc. and so does the Princeton Gerrymanding Project. In both maps, however, the finger they gave Watauga remains.)

You see that little hook of Caldwell pink, right? invading the integrity of Watauga yellow. I haven't seen the precinct-level blowup of that map, but that pink hook shore nuff looks like the Watauga Precinct of Watauga County, where The Foxx makes her home and some of her fortune:

The Watauga Precinct hook looks pretty on the nose for being the same Pink Hook in the top map.

If this is the map that makes it through the approval process, most of Watauga will be in a new district numbered 14. Meanwhile, Foxx -- whose political career we're all very interested in -- will end up with new territory that goes east all the way to Guilford County, takes in the southern quarter of Forsyth, and extends west to Ashe, with that little tickle-finger up Watauga's backside.

If most of us Wataugans end up in the new 14th, I can live with that. According to the Princeton Gerrymandering Project, the new district would have a Democratic vote share of 46.31% (vs. 53.69% R), and that's a number someone smart could work with. Plus it would be cool to collaborate with Buncombe.

The Princeton Gerrymandering Project graded this map "F" for partisan fairness because it creates 11 Republican and three Democratic districts in a state that has proven more purple than that. The three "solid Democratic" districts in this map would be the new districts 5, 6, and 9, but the 9 of this map -- all three dependent on the majorly urban Wake and Mecklenburg counties.

Sen. Ralph Hise, Republican head of redistricting in the NC Senate from Mitchell County, drew that map. He at least submitted it. A troll drew it.