The Nasty 'Dark Money' Arrives in #NCGA Races

An outside expenditure group calling itself "Citizens for a Better NC House" is unloading a flood of slick and nasty mailers against NC House Rep. Ray Russell (HD93), and if he's being targeted, so are other Democrats who won close races in 2018. (This group may also be the source of push-polling against Russell that we're getting reports of.)

The group is registered with the state Board of Elections with one name on the registration papers, that of a treasurer, Phillip A. Painter, and a PO Box address in Raleigh. The only Phillip A. Painter I can find in North Carolina lives in Gastonia.

As treasurer, he has a nice pile to play with, some $1,200,000 in "outside source" funds (all anonymous) that have miraculously appeared via electronic transfer. In addition to the attacks on Ray Russell in HD93, meant to boost the chances of Republican Ray Pickett, the group is also targeting these House and Senate races:

HD20, where Democrat Adam Ericson is challenging Republican Ted Davis. I wrote about Ericson on June 22 as one of the best bets to flip a Republican district this year.

HD82, where Democrat Aimy Steele is a real threat to flip an open Republican seat. I also wrote about Steele on June 22nd.

SD9, where Democrat Harper Peterson, who flipped this senate seat in 2018, is trying to hold on against Republican Mike Lee, who's trying to get his seat back with the help of dark money.

HD1, where Democrat Emily Bunch Nicholson is challenging incumbent Republican Ed Goodwin. This is another of those closely watched races that could flip the NC House to Democratic control. I wrote about Nicholson on June 21.

SD1, where Democrat Tess Judge is trying to unseat Republican incumbent Bob Steinburg. I put Judge in the "3rd tier" of potential red-to-blue flippers of NC Senate districts. Clearly, the dark money is worried about her chances of taking out Steinburg.

Un-Trumping North Carolina: 3rd Tier of Potential Red-to-Blue Flips in NC Senate

Dist. 1 (Dare, Hyde, Tyrrell, Washington, Chowan, Perquimans, Pasquotank, Camden, Currituck, Gates, and Hertford counties)

Democrat Tess Judge v. Republican Bob Steinburg (incumbent finishing 1st term in Senate, previously served 3 terms in NC House)

Rated "Lean Republican." Trump took the district with 54.84% of the vote in 2016. (Michael Bitzer)

A "Pivotal Race" and "extremely competitive" (FlipNC.org). RealFactsNC and Long Leaf Pine Slate agree it's a "race to watch."

We were keen about Tess Judge when she ran in 2018 in NC House District 6. She has worked in hospitality management her entire career and is well known in the coastal community for serving on the Board of Directors of the Outer Banks Chamber of Commerce. She and her late husband Warren were named Co-Citizens of the Year by the Chamber in 2011. She also currently serves on the Board of the Outer Banks Hospital and is Chair of the Outer Banks Hospital Development Council. Her concern over environmental protections for a fragile coast sets her apart from most candidates on the other side. Long Leaf Pine Slate: "Judge's deep connections with communities across Eastern NC will prove invaluable in dislodging a widely unloved incumbent who is relying on Raleigh PAC money to fund his campaign."

That "widely unloved incumbent," Bob Steinburg, has a rap sheet. Wikipedia: "Steinburg has been arrested twice, once for disorderly conduct and once for assault on his opponent's campaign manager. The charges were later dismissed. He has received heavy criticism for his temper, even being called 'unfit for state Senate seat' by Senator Bill Cook. Cook, R-Beaufort, chose not to seek re-election [in 2018] after court-ordered redistricting put him outside of a redrawn Senate District 1. Cook endorsed Steinburg's primary opponent Clark Twiddy and contributed money to his campaign .... Steinburg missed 1 out of 5 votes during the 2014-2015 and 2017-2018 sessions in the NC House. The only members of the House of Representatives who have missed more votes were Representatives who resigned while in the middle of their term or those appointed to fill the remaining term. His missed votes were due to his absence during the House session." Just today, the Long Leaf Pine Slate exposed the "dark, sad swamp" of Steinburg's Facebook page, which is filled with "racism, conspiracy theory and extremism — but mostly racism."

Dist. 24 (Alamance and the eastern half of Guilford counties)

Democrat J.D. Wooten v. Republican Amy Galey, for an open seat

Open because ... five-term incumbent Republican Rick Gunn waited until two weeks before filing began last December to announce he wouldn't be running for reelection in 2020. 

Rated "Lean Republican." Trump took the district with 54.93% of the vote. (Bitzer)

A race to watch for both RealFactsNC and Long Leaf Pine Slate.

I enthusiastically followed Wooten's attempt to gain the seat in the blue wave of 2018. He got 46.14% of the vote against Tea Party incumbent Rick Gunn -- a loss by 6,000 votes, a sobering number. But a damn good base to build on, and Wooten seemed willing to do the work when he announced he would try again in 2020.

The trend with partisan shifts in 2018 -- the higher the income and/or the education, the more likely the flip from Republican to Democratic -- that trend is expected to hold in 2020, and the burgeoning suburban sprawl along the I-40 and I-85 corridors which slice through the district would appear to fit the bill. Wooten himself lives in the I-40 corridor in eastern Guilford, the little suburb of Whitsett. Over in Alamance, Burlington and Graham are the major urban centers. In terms of income, Alamance's richest township is Coble, south of I-40, followed in wealth by Melville Township (both I-40 and I-85 adjacent), Albright, and Boone Station. Boone Station also shows up in the statistics as the most educated in the county.

In 2018 Wooten evidently ran an active campaign, and an effective one, or he wouldn't have done as well. He had a pretty relentless canvassing program (judging from Facebook posts) and was effective raising money enough to be a threat to an incumbent who had probably grown a little complacent. Republican Gunn had easily won reelection in 2016 and didn't even have a Democratic opponent in 2014. Is it not telling that he dropped out at the last minute rather than run again in 2020?

Wooten's Republican opponent this November, Amy Galey, looks formidable. Galey is a young 52. She ran for the Alamance Commission first time in the 2016 Republican primary, fell short by 40 votes, but won a special election the next year for an unexpired commissioner's seat and was promptly elected chair of the commission. She won reelection in her own right in 2018 as the top vote-getter. Alamance is a very red county, though Galey sounds like a moderate: "I have supported public education while expecting accountability for taxpayer investment, supported farmland preservation, and worked on smart growth answers to Alamance County’s challenges." Talks like a pro-growth Democrat -- the importance of education, farmland preservation, and "smart growth." According to Isaac Groves, Galey is "often the swing vote" on the Alamance County Commission, "sometimes siding with the conservatives on the board" (interesting way to put it). "She also joined the 3–2 majority in June to approve an 8-cent property tax rate increase to fund the voter-approved $189.6 million education bond package and long-range capital plan County Manager Bryan Hagood introduced." Not the type of rural Republican we're used to these days. More of an urban type.

Dist. 25 (Anson, Richmond, Moore, and Scotland counties)

Democrat Helen Probst Mills v. 3-term Republican incumbent Tom McInnis

Rated "Safe Republican" by Bitzer (ouch). Trump took the district with 56.30% of the vote.

Nevertheless, RealFactsNC considers this a race to watch.

We followed Helen Probst Mills when she ran the first time for this seat in 2018. She did not quite make it to 43% of the vote that year. She trained as an attorney in Illinois and lives now in Pinehurst. She entered the race in 2018, she said, in part to simply provide an option. “The reality is that I walk in on Election Day to the polling booth here in Pinehurst and there are no Democrats for me to check. We need a choice." Mills says she grew up a daughter to a single mother and is herself the mother of three and a cancer survivor who moved to North Carolina with her husband, Stuart, in 2006. In 2017, Mills was appointed by Gov. Roy Cooper to the Sandhills Community College Board of Trustees. She also serves on the college’s Foundation Board, where she helped develop a program allowing high school graduates to attend for two years without having to pay tuition. She serves as development chair for the Northern Moore Family Resource Center in Robbins, which has opened a preschool and is developing a community center. She credits the overcoming of breast cancer to having health insurance: “Everyone, no matter their background or how much money they make, should have access to affordable, quality health care. Yet too many politicians in Raleigh put petty partisan politics over policies that would help thousands. That is wrong for my community and for North Carolina.”

Her Republican opponent, Tom McInnis, is a good ole boy auctioneer not above cutting deals, and he drew a primary challenge in 2018 from the very conservative mayor of Whispering Pines in Moore County (which had been added to McInnis's district by remapping). According to VoteSmart.org, McInnis never took a college class, and his only education above the high school level was auctioneer school. Curiously, he lists no religious nor denominational affiliation,

 

More Good Fundraising News from NCGA Candidates

In House District 6, Democrat Tess Judge outraised Republican Bobby Hanig in both the First Quarter and the Second Quarter for what is now an open seat. (Hanig beat out incumbent Republican Beverly Boswell in the May primary.) In the Second Quarter especially, Judge raised $63,583.23 to Hanig's $13,050. The 6th District was redrawn this year to encompass Dare, Currituck, Hyde, and Pamlico counties on the North Carolina coast.

Democrat Tess Judge was helping her husband Warren Judge run against Beverly Boswell in 2016 when he tragically died in the last week of that campaign, practically on the eve of the election. Democratic leaders wanted Tess to replace her husband on the ballot, but it was too late for making that change, and even deceased, Warren Judge got 48.17% of the vote against Boswell. Tess is back this year running in her own right. Tess Judge has worked in hospitality management her entire career and is well known in the coastal community for serving on the Board of Directors of the Outer Banks Chamber of Commerce. She and her late husband Warren were named Co-Citizens of the Year by the Chamber in 2011. “As someone who has operated small businesses in our community for years, through good times and bad, I know how to manage a budget while also creating jobs .... Our people are our greatest resource – it’s time to listen and invest in them. We need to make public education a priority again. For years we have been asking our great teachers to do more with less and our schools and community colleges are underfunded. I’m running to ensure that our investments in public education result in more opportunities for our students and a workforce trained for the jobs of the future,” she said. She also currently serves on the Board of the Outer Banks Hospital and is Chair of the Outer Banks Hospital Development Council. She's been outspoken in opposition to off-shore drilling.

In House District 98, Thom Tillis's old seat in north Mecklenburg County, now held by Republican incumbent John Bradford, spunky Democrat Christy Clark has outraised Bradford in combined First and Second Quarters $70,890.47 to $17,165.62.

Democrat Christy Clark currently works as an intellectual property and business law paralegal at the law firm founded by her husband in Charlotte. She received her undergraduate degree in English at Roanoke College and her Certificate in Paralegal Studies from Duke University. She's been particularly involved with gun violence prevention, serving as the North Carolina Chapter Leader of Moms Demand Action. In that role, she says, she has spent many hours lobbying lawmakers in Raleigh, attending both committee meetings and House/Senate sessions. As a paralegal she's very familiar with the Secretary of State's office and is well informed on what's required for entrepreneurship in North Carolina. "Working with a wide range of individuals and businesses from all across the state has given me the insight into what is needed to grow a business." She lists education at the top of her issues page (as do 99.9% of the Democrats running in North Carolina this year), and she's for expanding Medicaid under the Affordable Care Act (as are ditto). Her campaign is organizing neighborhood canvasses (sometimes in 90-degree heat), which speaks volumes about energy in that district. Not to forget the fundraising.

In House District 93, "weatherman" Ray Russell, the Democrat, is leading incumbent Jonathan Jordan in total fundraising ($92,961.81, over both quarters, to Jordan's $46,152.42), but has also spent a lot already (signing on with the House Democratic Caucus has some steep costs). Still, Weatherman Ray still has more cash on hand at the end of the Second Quarter -- $27,426.08 to Jordan's $21,476.63. The 93rd District consists of Ashe and Watauga counties. The last time it was in Democratic hands = 2010.

Democrat Ray Russell is not your standard Democrat (non-standardization is the standard of 2018!). He used to be a Republican. He's also a preacher who attended a Bible college and has pastored several churches. But he's also a climate scientist with a deep reverence for scientific truth. He launched Ray's Weather, the on-line forecast site for the mountains of western North Carolina, in 2000, using his higher training as a computer scientist and a keen hobbyist's enthusiasm. He now employs four meteorologists and stretches his weather coverage from Asheville to Wytheville, Va. Russell announced his candidacy early in 2017 and went to work, and he's got solid campaign infrastructure: a manager and an army of volunteers and Facebook, Twitter, and website presence. He's raising money and sharpening a message and presents an energetic contrast to the lethargic Jordan: Russell, among other qualities, is a marathon runner. In 2016 he ran the entire length of the Blue Ridge Parkway, 469 miles, to raise money for the Blue Ridge Parkway Foundation.

In House District 119, Democrat Joe Sam Queen has outraised incumbent Republican Mike Clampitt by a good country mile. Queen has cash on hand of $56,683.66 to Clampitt's $17,491.14 (Clampitt only raised $21,850 during the Second Quarter). Queen used to own this seat, and Clampitt ran against him unsuccessfully at least twice before taking the seat in the Twitterman Wave of 2016. District 119 takes in a lot of mountain landscape -- from Waynesville, Cherokee, and Bryson City, down through Sylva and Cullowhee and south through Cashiers to the lowlands along the South Carolina border.

Democrat Joe Sam Queen is an architect in Waynesville. He provides color, and politically,  he's got plenty of grit. His family speaks to his values: "My wife, Dr. Kate Queen, is a rheumatologist for Haywood Regional Medical Center. My daughter Sara is an outstanding young architect and professor at NCSU, as well as a new mom to my first grandson Cole. My son Charlie, a chemist, is the Lab Director for Panacea, a North Carolina start up company in the field of personalized medicine. Both are graduates of the University of North Carolina system. As a united Methodist, I've taught Sunday school for over 20 years, led Boy Scouts, and coached youth soccer. And, like my granddaddy before me, I call the Appalachian Square Dance." He's served in both NC House and Senate. He won the 47th Senate District in 2002, lost it in 2004, and came back and won it again in 2006 and kept it through the election of 2010. That's grit. After he lost the Senate seat, he ran and won the House seat in 2012 and kept it through reelection in 2014. He was a vocal leader in the call to expand Medicaid in North Carolina and raise teacher pay. He is strongly against fracking in North Carolina and has made strong public remarks against it.

In House District 1, Democrat Ron Wesson, a county commissioner in Bertie County, is running against Republican Eddy Goodwin, a county commissioner in Chowan County, for an open seat on the Carolina coast. In a low-dollar campaign, Wesson has outraised Goodwin and has a cash-on-hand advantage, $17,765.43 to $7,361.50.

Democrat Ron Wesson is impressively qualified to win the seat. He's been elected and then reelected as a Bertie County commissioner, and he's served as both the chair of the board of commissioners and currently as vice-chair. He was born and raised in Bertie County, and he's married to a psychiatrist in private practice, Dr. Patricia W. Wesson. Ron completed his undergraduate work at UNC-Chapel Hill and his graduate studies at The Sloan School of Business, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, and then joined the Dun & Bradstreet Corporation where he served for more than 31 years, retiring as a senior vice-president and Global Leader. In 2004, Black Enterprise Magazine named Wesson one of the 50 most Influential Minorities in Business. Returning to Bertie County after retirement, he threw himself into community service, became chair of the Bertie County Chamber of Commerce, joined the Rotary Club, the Bertie County Community Foundation, and the Bertie County Schools Foundation. He moved into public service in 2012, running for and winning his seat on the county commission. He was actively recruited for this race by the Democratic House Caucus. He says on his website, "Any success that I have had in business and in life, can be directly traced to the investment that others have made in me. I have always been encouraged to look beyond one’s self and seek to support others in ways that I have been supported. My Mother once said to me…'Son, God has blessed you with enough sense to do pretty much anything you set your mind to do. You will find that there are a lot of much smarter people out there, but never let anyone out work you to achieve your goals.' I have endeavored to live by this advice, and if given the opportunity, I look forward to working hard for the citizens of North Carolina’s 1st House District."

Make a Note: Beverly Boswell Is Not a Nurse

Beverly Boswell

We profiled Republican NC House member Beverly Boswell (House District 6) on February 22, along with her Democratic opponent, Tess Judge. Since that writing, we noticed that Real Fact NC characterized her as "deeply unpopular" in the 6th District.

Her personality came through quite clearly in a recent Facebook post when she criticized high school students protesting assault rifles as "Tide pod eaters."

John Burns, a Democratic Wake County commissioner from Raleigh, told Boswell on Facebook that she should be ashamed of herself. "To denigrate these children for taking a stand is the height of arrogance and ignorance. A dangerous combination," Burns posted. "Until you solve either the arrogance or the ignorance, kindly stick to your district and mind your own business."

Then today, Boswell gets called out for impersonating a registered nurse.

Go back and read about Tess Judge who's running against her this November (if Boswell survives her Republican primary). If you've got spare change, send it Tess Judge's way: https://act.myngp.com/Forms/-1215143298245523456.

On the North Carolina Coast. Another Democratic Insurgent v. An Angry Trumpist

Insurgent Tess Judge, running in the NC House District 6

The 6th District has been redrawn for 2018 to encompass Dare, Currituck, Hyde, and Pamlico counties on the North Carolina coast.

Incumbent Republican Beverly Boswell is serving her first term in the chamber. She was

Beverly Boswell

elected in 2016 with 51.83% of the vote against Democrat Warren Judge, the husband of the Democrat, Tess Judge, who is running for the seat this year (and thereby hangs a tale: see below). In 2016, incumbent Boswell also barely won her three-way Republican primary with just 39% of the vote. She's a Trumpist, through and through, and she even accuses her Republican primary opponent this year, a Currituck County commissioner, of being an anti-Trump liberal. “But these anti-Trump liberals have a surprise coming,” Boswell said, “because the American people support our President, and reject those who want to water down our conservative message and sell out to the Democrats as they have done for so many years,” she said. Boswell is particularly pissed at environmentalists who want to protect the coastline from stuff like off-shore drilling, and she throws around the label "radical left" at anyone who doesn't agree with her and bow down to Dear Leader Trump. She's a peach, this one!

Democrat Tess Judge helped her husband Warren run against Boswell in 2016 and was

Tess Judge

shaken by tragedy when Warren died in the last week of that campaign, practically on the eve of the election. Democratic leaders wanted Tess to replace her husband on the ballot, but it was too late for making that change, and even deceased, Warren Judge got 48.17% of the vote. If he had won, the Democratic leadership in the 6th District would have appointed Tess to his seat in the event of his death, so she's back this year as the logical (and the emotional) best opponent for Boswell. Tess Judge has worked in hospitality management her entire career and is well known in the coastal community for serving on the Board of Directors of the Outer Banks Chamber of Commerce. She and her late husband Warren were named Co-Citizens of the Year by the Chamber in 2011. “As someone who has operated small businesses in our community for years, through good times and bad, I know how to manage a budget while also creating jobs .... Our people are our greatest resource – it’s time to listen and invest in them. We need to make public education a priority again. For years we have been asking our great teachers to do more with less and our schools and community colleges are underfunded. I’m running to ensure that our investments in public education result in more opportunities for our students and a workforce trained for the jobs of the future,” she said. She also currently serves on the Board of the Outer Banks Hospital and is Chair of the Outer Banks Hospital Development Council. One of her greatest contrasts to the incumbent is her concern over environmental protections for a fragile coast. I don't think she'd applaud off-shore drilling.