Nate Silver, the Numbers Nerd at fivethirtyeight.com, the man who has called more races right than anyone else we know, crunches the math for North Carolina and declares that the U.S. Senate race against Dick Burr "winnable with a tip-top campaign" and that -- surprise! -- "Elaine Marshall looks like the best candidate."There are gonna be some NC politicos and young turks howling over that one.
21 comments:
I think Elaine Marshall is one of the best elected officials we have in the state. She is a wonderful lady and for the people.
She's also a smart candidate and knows everybody!
If Andy is so dang good at calling the shots! Why is he not listed as the top Bookie in Vegas?
I have great respect for Elaine Marshall. She provides great leadership in our state, but I think her best bet would be to stay where she is. I do not think a Democrat will take many if any seats in this election. I think the people spoke with Senator Kennedy's seat going to a Repulican. That has and will change the course of history. I do not think one can argue this.
What are the people saying, John? Do they not want health insurance reform at all, or do they not want the senate plan?
" I think the people spoke with Senator Kennedy's seat going to a Repulican. That has and will change the course of history. I do not think one can argue this." -John
I can. This was not a Republican mandate. A charismatic "home folks" candidate won over a less motivated one. As soon as Brown follows the Republican playbook (and he MUST,in order to be supported by national) the liberal folks of MA will kick him out, soundly!
Biker Bard: Please wake up and smell the roses. This is what you are going to see in November.
RV: People do not want to pay higher taxes, they want to be able to access healthcare as they can now. Reform will change that. Healthcare is not a constitutional right.
People in Massachusetts did not want the FEDS to interfere with the health care reform they have already passed. Brown ran against it by saying MA voters would have to pay taxes to bailout the rest of the states which, like NC, have done nothing to make sure people have access to insurance. That doesn't sound like a mandate for the rest of the country to me.
Here is an article worth reading - http://blogs.usatoday.com/oped/2010/01/column-afraid-of-health-care-legislation-.html
This shows how people are thinking. Now the fact that the people of this state put a Republican in Ted Kennedy's seat says something. Again, I say this will change the course of history. This election spoke loudly.
Elaine Marshall would be going against Richard Burr this time, not Richard Petty.
AJohn, are the people thinking, or are they just mad? When Virginia Foxx says all Americans have access to health care, she is only talking about going to the emergency room. If a sick person without health insurance (or lots and lots of money) needs ongoing treatment such as an operation, they have to be approved for Social Security Disability in order to get Medicaid coverage. It is not easy to be approved for Social Security Disability, and it takes a long time.
NC to become the only state besides LIB-RUL California with two Democratic women senators? I am a prgroessive and I think women should be in politics, but even I don't see that happening in my lifetime....
You can't get chemotherapy in the emergency room.
RV: People can get Medicare (not Medicaid) before the age of 65 if they qualify for disability. Medicaid is a completely different program and alive and well in this state. People also have the option for charity care in many hospitals. Watauga Medical Center is one example of that. They have offered charity care for many years. No, you do not have to have health insurance or a lot of money to access healthcare.
Yes, I do think the people are mad and what our Congress and this President have done to destroy this country in a short amount of time. Mark my word, change will be coming about in this fall election. Although, I think our county commissioners are doing an exceptional job in this county, we could even see changes on the local level.
John, I have "insurance". It is costing me 25% of my take home pay. If I become ill, or have an accident, the deductible and co-payments would leave me destitute, and of course if I am very ill, I won't be able to work to make those bills. I would much much rather pay that money to a govt administered program knowing that my children, my family, and anyone who needs care could get it as easily as my friends in the UK, or Canada can. As it is, Medicaid is a great program, but those of us who are scraping by cannot use it. We will have to lose our life savings first, and then what would we do?
And are you serious? You think the damage has been done <bsince> last year?!? Are you on drugs?</bsince>
What happens to someone who gets sick and can no longer pay their insurance premium, much less their deductible and copay?
John, you are right that people on Social Security Disability qualify for Medicare before age 65, but it is a long slow process to be approved. People with Lou Gehrig's Disease and End Stage Renal Failure also qualify.
John, when I was looking for a new doctor, I made several telephone calls. The first question I was asked was "Do you have insurance?" Luckily I could say yes because my employer provides it for me (at 531.00 per month for just myself with a $2500.00 deductible). I doubt whether the doctor would have been taking new patients if I had said no. What will I do if I lose my job?
Charity care at Watauga Hospital is for people without insurance (and with only enough money to live on) who have had a medical emergency and have gone to the ER. After their medical emergency has been stabilized, the hospital agrees to write off their medical bill using their charity funds. First of all, where does the charity fund come from? Secondly, these people do not have access to follow-up care outside the ER. When the medication they were prescribed in the ER runs out, how will they get more? It is a lousy system.
John:
Stop making alarming statements which have no basis. Exactly what has the President done to "destroy" our country. Be specific.
Does anyone know where the charity fund at Watauga Hospital comes from? Could they be padding the bills of people who are able to pay?
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