Un-Trumping North Carolina: J D Wooten in SD24

 

We're grateful to the Long Leaf Pine Slate for supplying a clutch of new candidate videos for Democrats running in flippable NC General Assembly districts. We've also been writing about these folks for months. The Long Leaf Pine Slate has been successfully raising money for these races all year. Some of the results can be seen in the professional introductory videos -- quick hits of personality and vital biography highlighted by snazzy graphics, so that although the candidate talks directly to the camera, they never lapse into static "talking-head" mode. I'll be highlighting these videos one at a time over coming days/weeks.

J D Wooten in Senate District 24 (Alamance and Guilford). An open seat because of the decision not to run again by Republican Sen. Rick Gunn, an alumnus of the 2010 Tea Party wave. The Republicans recruited Amy Galey, chair of the Alamance County Commission. District is rated "Lean Republican." Trump took almost fifty-five percent of the vote in 2016.

I enthusiastically followed Wooten's attempt to gain the seat in the blue wave of 2018. He got 46.14% of the vote against Tea Party incumbent Rick Gunn -- a loss by 6,000 votes, a sobering number. But a damn good base to build on, and Wooten seemed willing to do the work when he announced he would try again in 2020.

The trend with partisan shifts in 2018 -- the higher the income and/or the education, the more likely the flip from Republican to Democratic -- that trend is expected to hold in 2020, and the burgeoning suburban sprawl along the I-40 and I-85 corridors which slice through the district would appear to fit the bill. Wooten himself lives in the I-40 corridor in eastern Guilford, the little suburb of Whitsett. Over in Alamance, Burlington and Graham are the major urban centers. In terms of income, Alamance's richest township is Coble, south of I-40, followed in wealth by Melville Township (both I-40 and I-85 adjacent), Albright, and Boone Station. Boone Station also shows up in the statistics as the most educated in the county.

In 2018 Wooten evidently ran an active campaign, and an effective one, or he wouldn't have done as well. He had a pretty relentless canvassing program (judging from Facebook posts) and was effective raising money enough to be a threat to an incumbent who had probably grown a little complacent. Republican Gunn had easily won reelection in 2016 and didn't even have a Democratic opponent in 2014. Is it not telling that he dropped out at the last minute rather than run again in 2020?

Un-Trumping North Carolina: 3rd Tier of Potential Red-to-Blue Flips in NC Senate

Dist. 1 (Dare, Hyde, Tyrrell, Washington, Chowan, Perquimans, Pasquotank, Camden, Currituck, Gates, and Hertford counties)

Democrat Tess Judge v. Republican Bob Steinburg (incumbent finishing 1st term in Senate, previously served 3 terms in NC House)

Rated "Lean Republican." Trump took the district with 54.84% of the vote in 2016. (Michael Bitzer)

A "Pivotal Race" and "extremely competitive" (FlipNC.org). RealFactsNC and Long Leaf Pine Slate agree it's a "race to watch."

We were keen about Tess Judge when she ran in 2018 in NC House District 6. She has worked in hospitality management her entire career and is well known in the coastal community for serving on the Board of Directors of the Outer Banks Chamber of Commerce. She and her late husband Warren were named Co-Citizens of the Year by the Chamber in 2011. She also currently serves on the Board of the Outer Banks Hospital and is Chair of the Outer Banks Hospital Development Council. Her concern over environmental protections for a fragile coast sets her apart from most candidates on the other side. Long Leaf Pine Slate: "Judge's deep connections with communities across Eastern NC will prove invaluable in dislodging a widely unloved incumbent who is relying on Raleigh PAC money to fund his campaign."

That "widely unloved incumbent," Bob Steinburg, has a rap sheet. Wikipedia: "Steinburg has been arrested twice, once for disorderly conduct and once for assault on his opponent's campaign manager. The charges were later dismissed. He has received heavy criticism for his temper, even being called 'unfit for state Senate seat' by Senator Bill Cook. Cook, R-Beaufort, chose not to seek re-election [in 2018] after court-ordered redistricting put him outside of a redrawn Senate District 1. Cook endorsed Steinburg's primary opponent Clark Twiddy and contributed money to his campaign .... Steinburg missed 1 out of 5 votes during the 2014-2015 and 2017-2018 sessions in the NC House. The only members of the House of Representatives who have missed more votes were Representatives who resigned while in the middle of their term or those appointed to fill the remaining term. His missed votes were due to his absence during the House session." Just today, the Long Leaf Pine Slate exposed the "dark, sad swamp" of Steinburg's Facebook page, which is filled with "racism, conspiracy theory and extremism — but mostly racism."

Dist. 24 (Alamance and the eastern half of Guilford counties)

Democrat J.D. Wooten v. Republican Amy Galey, for an open seat

Open because ... five-term incumbent Republican Rick Gunn waited until two weeks before filing began last December to announce he wouldn't be running for reelection in 2020. 

Rated "Lean Republican." Trump took the district with 54.93% of the vote. (Bitzer)

A race to watch for both RealFactsNC and Long Leaf Pine Slate.

I enthusiastically followed Wooten's attempt to gain the seat in the blue wave of 2018. He got 46.14% of the vote against Tea Party incumbent Rick Gunn -- a loss by 6,000 votes, a sobering number. But a damn good base to build on, and Wooten seemed willing to do the work when he announced he would try again in 2020.

The trend with partisan shifts in 2018 -- the higher the income and/or the education, the more likely the flip from Republican to Democratic -- that trend is expected to hold in 2020, and the burgeoning suburban sprawl along the I-40 and I-85 corridors which slice through the district would appear to fit the bill. Wooten himself lives in the I-40 corridor in eastern Guilford, the little suburb of Whitsett. Over in Alamance, Burlington and Graham are the major urban centers. In terms of income, Alamance's richest township is Coble, south of I-40, followed in wealth by Melville Township (both I-40 and I-85 adjacent), Albright, and Boone Station. Boone Station also shows up in the statistics as the most educated in the county.

In 2018 Wooten evidently ran an active campaign, and an effective one, or he wouldn't have done as well. He had a pretty relentless canvassing program (judging from Facebook posts) and was effective raising money enough to be a threat to an incumbent who had probably grown a little complacent. Republican Gunn had easily won reelection in 2016 and didn't even have a Democratic opponent in 2014. Is it not telling that he dropped out at the last minute rather than run again in 2020?

Wooten's Republican opponent this November, Amy Galey, looks formidable. Galey is a young 52. She ran for the Alamance Commission first time in the 2016 Republican primary, fell short by 40 votes, but won a special election the next year for an unexpired commissioner's seat and was promptly elected chair of the commission. She won reelection in her own right in 2018 as the top vote-getter. Alamance is a very red county, though Galey sounds like a moderate: "I have supported public education while expecting accountability for taxpayer investment, supported farmland preservation, and worked on smart growth answers to Alamance County’s challenges." Talks like a pro-growth Democrat -- the importance of education, farmland preservation, and "smart growth." According to Isaac Groves, Galey is "often the swing vote" on the Alamance County Commission, "sometimes siding with the conservatives on the board" (interesting way to put it). "She also joined the 3–2 majority in June to approve an 8-cent property tax rate increase to fund the voter-approved $189.6 million education bond package and long-range capital plan County Manager Bryan Hagood introduced." Not the type of rural Republican we're used to these days. More of an urban type.

Dist. 25 (Anson, Richmond, Moore, and Scotland counties)

Democrat Helen Probst Mills v. 3-term Republican incumbent Tom McInnis

Rated "Safe Republican" by Bitzer (ouch). Trump took the district with 56.30% of the vote.

Nevertheless, RealFactsNC considers this a race to watch.

We followed Helen Probst Mills when she ran the first time for this seat in 2018. She did not quite make it to 43% of the vote that year. She trained as an attorney in Illinois and lives now in Pinehurst. She entered the race in 2018, she said, in part to simply provide an option. “The reality is that I walk in on Election Day to the polling booth here in Pinehurst and there are no Democrats for me to check. We need a choice." Mills says she grew up a daughter to a single mother and is herself the mother of three and a cancer survivor who moved to North Carolina with her husband, Stuart, in 2006. In 2017, Mills was appointed by Gov. Roy Cooper to the Sandhills Community College Board of Trustees. She also serves on the college’s Foundation Board, where she helped develop a program allowing high school graduates to attend for two years without having to pay tuition. She serves as development chair for the Northern Moore Family Resource Center in Robbins, which has opened a preschool and is developing a community center. She credits the overcoming of breast cancer to having health insurance: “Everyone, no matter their background or how much money they make, should have access to affordable, quality health care. Yet too many politicians in Raleigh put petty partisan politics over policies that would help thousands. That is wrong for my community and for North Carolina.”

Her Republican opponent, Tom McInnis, is a good ole boy auctioneer not above cutting deals, and he drew a primary challenge in 2018 from the very conservative mayor of Whispering Pines in Moore County (which had been added to McInnis's district by remapping). According to VoteSmart.org, McInnis never took a college class, and his only education above the high school level was auctioneer school. Curiously, he lists no religious nor denominational affiliation,

 

A High-Level Republican Decides Against Running for Reelection in 2020

Rick Gunn, Republican Majority Whip in the NC Senate (District 24, Alamance and Guilford), announced yesterday that he would not be seeking reelection in 2020. Was that a surprise? To me, at least, it was, but he had obviously been planning the announcement for some time. His bowing out was covered in the same Burlington Times-News article that also provided a quick profile of his clearly anointed successor.

Amy Galey

Alamance County Commission Chair Amy Galey has been chosen -- by Gunn at least, if not by the Republican leadership in Alamance -- to run for Rick Gunn's seat next year. She looks formidable. Galey is a young 52. She ran for the Alamance Commission first time in the 2016 Republican primary, fell short by 40 votes, but won a special election the next year for an unexpired commissioner's seat and was promptly elected chair of the commission. She won reelection in her own right in 2018 as the top vote-getter.

Alamance is a very red county, though Galey sounds like a moderate: "I have supported public education while expecting accountability for taxpayer investment, supported farmland preservation, and worked on smart growth answers to Alamance County’s challenges." Talks like a pro-growth Democrat -- the importance of education, farmland preservation, and "smart growth." According to Isaac Groves, Galey is "often the swing vote" on the Alamance County Commission, "sometimes siding with the conservatives on the board" (interesting way to put it). "She also joined the 3–2 majority in June to approve an 8-cent property tax rate increase to fund the voter-approved $189.6 million education bond package and long-range capital plan County Manager Bryan Hagood introduced." Not the type of rural Republican we're used to these days. More of an urban type.

Now with the 24th Senate District an open seat, the winning path for Democratic candidate J.D. Wooten maybe just got a little easier. Wooten ran an energetic campaign for the seat in 2018 but lost. I extensively profiled both him and District 24 back in July after I discovered that he had announced he'll be trying again in 2020. Michael Bitzer rates the district as "Lean Republican," but Real Facts NC considers it among the flippable prospects next year. (FlipNC sees it as a "Longshot," which aligns more with Bitzer. The entry of Amy Galey would seem to bolster that view.)

Here's Wooten's bio in a little over a minute (he's upped his game):

Exploiting Cracks in the NC Republican Wall

In the 2018 midterms for NC Senate, two "lean Republican" districts went Democratic, districts 17 (southern Wake County) and 27 (a C-section of Guilford surrounding Greensboro). Those districts were won by Sam Searcy and Michael Garrett, respectively, riders of the 2018 NC blue wave.

J.D. Wooten
Womble Bond Dickinson photo

The only other "lean Republican" district in 2018 where a Democrat came reasonably close to winning ... District 24, where Air Force veteran J.D. Wooten got 46.14% of the vote against Tea Party incumbent Rick Gunn -- a loss by 6,000 votes, a sobering number. But a damn good base to build on if you're willing to do the work.

The trend with partisan shifts in 2018 -- the higher the income and/or the education, the more likely the flip from Republican to Democratic candidates. That trend is expected to hold in 2020. NC Senate District 24 encompasses eastern Guilford and all of Alamance counties and the burgeoning suburban sprawl along the I-40 and I-85 corridors which slice through the district. Wooten himself lives in the I-40 corridor in eastern Guilford, the little suburb of Whitsett. Over in Alamance, Burlington and Graham are the major urban centers.

In terms of income, Alamance's richest township is Coble, south of I-40, followed in wealth by Melville Township (both I-40 and I-85 adjacent), Albright, and Boone Station. Boone Station also shows up in the statistics as the most educated in the county.

In 2018 Wooten evidently ran an active campaign, and an effective one, or he wouldn't have done as well. He had a pretty relentless canvassing program (judging from Facebook posts) and was effective raising money enough to be a threat to an incumbent who had probably grown a little complacent. Republican Rick Gunn had easily won reelection in 2016 and didn't even have a Democratic opponent in 2014.

Wooten apparently sees a way forward for making up that 6,000-vote deficit in 2020 because he announced back in May that he's in for another go at Gunn next year. I'm glad to hear it. But (cue the ominous chords -- dum dum DUM) ... watching Wooten's announcement video, my heart sank -- didn't flutter in a good way -- because it's standard, lifeless candidate-talking-directly-to-the-camera boilerplate. In an age of amazing candidate announcement videos, Wooten's goes splat.

He's got the bio, the list of accomplishments, the North Carolina policy positions to produce an impressive and engaging video biography, and he needs to do that soon.

Partial biography, gleaned from his own website: "J.D." Wooten is actually John David Wooten IV. He traces his family back dozens of generations to the Jamestown settlement of 1607. (I learned that factoid somewhere last year, but see no mention of family history on Wooten's current website). He was nominated to the U.S. Air Force Academy by Jesse Helms and Congressman David Price, received his appointment in 2003 (studied aeronautical engineering), served a decade in the Air Force as an engineer and program manager for the Situation Awareness Data Link, an air-to-ground radio system used extensively in close air support and homeland defense missions. He earned the Gladys Noon Spellman Fellowship Award to attend the University of Maryland School of Public Policy where he earned a Master of Public Policy in International Security and Economic Policy. Following his service in the Air Force, Wooten got his law degree at Wake Forest and now specializes in intellectual property law for Womble Bond Dickinson.

Who the hell am I to tell the candidate to do anything? Just a far-from-innocent bystander who'd like to see the guy win. Coming across as an effective personality in social media is just part of the even bigger push Wooten's going to need in 2020, because the suburbs are still ground zero for flipping political loyalties. Some 85.2% of Alamance households have a computer, and 73.5% are broadband subscribers.

More Democratic Hopes for the NC Senate

We posted yesterday about five Democratic candidates who could break the Republican super-majority (down-column) and who are running in districts considered either competitive or "lean Democratic."

Below are videos by some Democrats running in NC Senate districts rated "lean Republican" and "strong Republican," and several of them have already made a reputation as stars in the 2018 Democratic crown. Can they win? Yes. Especially in a year like 2018 has proven to be.

Democrat J.D. Wooten Is Taking On a Tea Party Zero in NC Senate District 24

NC Senate District 24 was redrawn and now includes eastern Guilford County and all of Alamance County. In Alamance, the major urban centers are on the I-40 and 85 corridor, including Burlington and Graham. The portion of Guilford in the district includes the towns of Whitsett and McLeansville but only bits of Greensboro.

Incumbent Republican: Rick Gunn. Gunn, a realtor, was first elected in the Tea Party wave of 2010, defeating a Democratic incumbent with just under 53% of the vote. In 2012, Gunn had a Libertarian opponent but no Democrat ran against him. In 2014, Gunn had no opponent whatsoever. In 2016, a Democrat running against Gunn couldn't get to 40% of the vote. In 2016, Gunn ranked 6th most
conservative senator overall in the Civitas rankings. Meanwhile, the League of Conservation Voters have consistently given him a big fat zero. Gunn is above all a loyal soldier for Senate Prez Phil Berger, supporting HB2, the demoralization of public education, the bullying of local municipalities, and the denial of health insurance to the poor through an expansion of Medicaid.

Democrat J.D. Wooten is an Air Force veteran, a lawyer specializing in intellectual property rights at Womble Bond Dickinson, and a first-time candidate for public office. At the Air Force Academy he

earned a degree in aeronautical engineering and a commission as a 2nd Lieutenant. “My time in the Air Force helped me learn firsthand the importance of service and fighting for what I believe in,”
J.D. said. “My toughest assignment, however, didn’t include a battlefield or cutting-edge technology. Instead, it came as an honor guardsman, where I had the privilege of providing military funeral honors for our nation’s servicemen and women. Helping lay to rest people who gave so much for our country was one of the most difficult but meaningful assignments of my life.”

J.D. Wooten

After a decade of service in the Air Force, Wooten got his law degree at Wake Forest. He's 32 years old and comes from a venerable line of North Carolinians. He says his family "left England to join the Jamestown Colony in 1607 and moved south years later to help establish the North Carolina colony." J.D. Wooten is actually John David Wooten IV. That deep history in the state has made the policies of the Republican majority in the NC General Assembly particularly galling:

“Republicans in Raleigh are chipping away at the values and institutions that made North Carolina the state my family has proudly called home for centuries. These politicians are trampling on individual rights, hurting sustainable economic development, and are underfunding our public schools, asking our teachers to do more with less. In short, they have left too many behind. Breaking the Republican majority is the key to bringing progress and prosperity back to North Carolina.”

“It would be my honor to take the fight for equality, economic development, and education to Raleigh on behalf of the people of District 24,” Wooten concluded.