Virginia Democrats Dodge Progressives and Nominate Establishment Types for Statewide Offices

 

Yesterday in their primary election, Virginia Democrats eschewed the more progressive candidates for governor, lieutenant governor, and attorney general and opted for "safe" establishment Democrats.

Former Gov. Terry McAuliffe easily won the primary for governor, besting not one but two Black women candidates. 

Although Hala Ayala, who won the race for lieutenant governor, is a multi-racial woman of color, she's somewhat notoriously backed by Virginia’s largest electric utility, Dominion Energy, which gave her $100,000 in the closing days of her campaign against the progressive candidate Sam Rasoul.

Incumbent Attorney General Mark R. Herring won his primary against Black challenger Jay Jones, who was interestingly endorsed by the sitting Virginia governor, Ralph Northam. Jones had criticized Herring for turning a blind eye on police misconduct.

That slate will be up against a Trump-endorsed Republican team in a test this fall of any lingering penumbra of power associated with the former president. Will progressives turn out?

For a Republican To Win Virginia's Governership, He Needs To Hide

 

Interesting analysis by Laura Vozzella appeared yesterday in the WashPost documenting how Republican nominee for Virginia governor Glenn Youngkin has gone all moderate-by-means-of-omission since winning the Republican nomination. The piece is headlined "Glenn Youngkin, GOP nominee for Virginia governor, goes mum on guns and abortion."

Whaaa! No guns and abortion? But that's the essential GOP kindling for a bonfire of the vanities.

But smart(er) Virginia conservatives are going "Shaaa! It's more important to win the suburbs than continue to stroke Jimmie Sue and Radley Joe in their post-rural cultural crusades. Youngkin's just being strategic." Also dishonest.

Get this: Youngkin didn't fill out a single candidate survey from interest groups, including the very long one from the National Rifle Association -- "a first in recent memory for a successful statewide GOP nominee." And his campaign website has no "issues" page, where he might stand a chance of scaring the soccer moms.

And he's gone cagey with the press: "Asked during an interview with The Washington Post on Friday how he would like to change state laws on guns and abortion, Youngkin repeatedly evaded the topics. When pressed, he noted that he is 'pro-life' and that he will 'stand up for our constitutional rights.' But to every request for specific policy goals on abortion and guns, two of his signature issues, Youngkin offered the same jobs-schools-safety mantra."

Will it work?

That depends heavily on who the Democrats nominate, which will happen in the June 8th primary. I tried to write thumbnail profiles of all the diverse Democratic candidates here. The eventual winner could end up being a dynamic Black woman, Jennifer Carolyn Foy. Or Terry McAuliffe.

Who Will Be the Next Governor of Virginia?

 

Virginia is a weirdo state in so many ways, going from Old Confederacy red to progressive blue in just a handful of election cycles. Both senators are Democrats. Both houses of their state lege, ditto. Governor, lieutenant guv, attorney general -- all Democrats. And the state went decisively for Joe Biden last fall.

Virginia is also weird in that its major state elections are in odd-numbered years, like this one, when it will elect a new governor (and the rest of its statewide officers and members of the state lege). So there's a scrum of candidates for governor on both sides. The Trumpists are predicting a MAGA resurgence; the Democrats are hoping for continued forward momentum. It's kind of a circus with lots of clowns.

The Democrats

The Democratic nominee for Governor of Virginia will be decided in a June 8 primary election. It's gonna be something to watch.

Terry McAuliffe

Yes, that Terry McAuliffe, the former govenor (2013-2017). Another weirdness: Virginia allows only a single 4-year term for its governors but allows them to come back for a 2nd go after someone else holds the job. McAuliffe is an old pal of the Clintons and served as their pick to head the Democratic National Committee, so he has a fat rolodex of potential donors. He's raised the most money so far, some $6 million just since last year. A slick operator, McAuliffe spent his years out of office raising big money for other Democrats running in the state, so he's got plenty of friends. He's been endorsed by many in the Virginia Legislative Black Caucus, ironic considering the next candidate down this list. From all I can discern, he was a popular governor, free of major scandal, but he's now a pain in the ass to younger, more progressive Democrats for returning for a second dip in the pool.

Jennifer Carroll Foy

Elected in the first blue wave of 2017 to the Virginia House of Delegates. She resigned her seat in December to concentrate on her race for governor. She's raised a respectable $1.9 million. She received her bachelor's degree from the Virginia Military Institute (and thereby hangs a tale of tough perseverance, surviving the hazing of all those white boys who didn't think she belonged). She earned her law degree from the Thomas Jefferson School of Law in San Diego. Her professional experience includes working as an attorney and public defender, serving as an adjunct professor of criminal law at Northern Virginia Community College, and serving as a magistrate. She also founded a nonprofit organization called the Foundation for Foster and Orphan Children. She's gotten lots of national attention as another potential Stacey Abrams.

Justin Fairfax

Currently the lieutenant governor of Virginia, Fairfax might have been considered "next in line" for the top job, but a sexual assault scandal has hurt him. Two women came forward and accused him of separate incidents of sexual assault from the early 2000s. Fairfax, a former federal prosecutor, has repeatedly denied the charges and called for law enforcement to investigate. Lawyers for both women have said they would rather participate in legislative hearings, a prospect Fairfax’s team has called a “show trial.” Probably as a result of this cloud, Fairfax's fundraising has been noticeably anemic.

 

Jennifer McClellan

The other Black woman in the race. A long serving member of the House of Delegates, she was elected to a Virginia Senate seat in the same 2017 wave that put Carolyn Foy in office. McClellan's law degree is from the University of Virginia School of Law, a pedigree that propelled her into a prominent career as a corporate lawyer. She's currently third in the money race with $1.1 million. She's considered "steady and cerebral," and she opted to keep her seat in the senate while campaigning for governor.  She highlights her work on significant legislation, such as sponsoring the first Voting Rights Act to be approved by a Southern state. She could split the Black vote with Carolyn Foy, thus advantaging Terry McAuliffe.

Lee J. Carter

Currently a member of the House of Delegates, Carter proudly dons the mantle of Bernie Sanders and calls himself a socialist. He's raised little money. But he's described as a "red-headed fiery populist" on the liberal, pro-worker-rights spectrum. He's an ex-Marine, which adds a little punch to his gospel of the "have-nots" needing to rise up against the "haves." “For too long, we’ve listened to career politicians and pundits tell us that there is no other way,” Carter said in his launch video. “But no more. In this primary we can finally pick a governor that will fight for the rest of us.”

The Republicans

The Virginia Republican Party is split and fighting right now over how to even select their candidate for governor. The non-Trumpists are trying to force the nomination into a convention, while the Trumpists want a bare-knuckles primary. Here's background on that.

Amanda F. Chase  

Currently the pistol-packing "Trump in high heels" who occupies a seat in the state senate (a seat recently encased in a plastic shield -- no, really -- because Chase refuses to wear a mask) who earned herself a bipartisan censure from her fellow senators for praising the Capitol insurrectionists as "patriots." She's the principal reason Republican Party leaders are desperate to keep this race out of a primary. They're terrified she could win a primary and go on to crash the whole party in November. As of the end of 2020, Chase had about $235,000, cash on hand.

 

Kirk Cox

He's been in the Virginia House of Delegates for three decades, and in his party's salad days, he served as majority leader and then as Speaker of the House. His voting record is not that different from Amanda Chase's, but Cox tries to project a non-Trumpist and "sane conservative" image. His one striking departure from Republican orthodoxy: He swerved on the issue of expanding Medicaid in the state under the Affordable Care Act, so to the Trumpists he's a traitor. As of Dec. 31, Cox had about $691,000 cash on hand. Cox and Chase are the only two of the six Republicans running who've ever held public office before. 

Glenn Youngkin

Youngkin is the former co-chief executive of the Carlyle Group, a global private equity giant. Worth an estimated $254  million, the political newcomer highlights his up-by-the-bootstraps biography, including a stint in his teens washing dishes at a Virginia Beach diner to help support his family. Youngkin claimed that he had raised $1 million from supporters in the first 10 days of his campaign.

 

Pete Snyder

Snyder is a pioneer in social media marketing who unsuccessfully sought his party’s nomination for lieutenant governor in 2013. The establishment favorite then, Snyder now touts endorsements from hard-right figures including former state attorney general Ken Cuccinelli. A multimillionaire, Snyder has the ability and willingness to self-fund.

 Peter Doran

Doran is the former president of the Center for European Policy Analysis in Washington, where he says he helped former Soviet bloc countries rebuild after “the ravages of socialism.” He’s promising to phase out the state’s income tax.

 Sergio de la Peña

De la Peña, a retired Army colonel, was born into poverty in Mexico and rose to a Pentagon post under Trump as deputy assistant secretary of defense for Western Hemisphere affairs.

 Note: Characterizations of some candidates, particularly the last four Republicans, taken from WashPost.

The Rise & Fall of Terry McAuliffe

The Mr. Motor Mouth of the 2008 Democratic Presidential primaries got stomped badly yesterday in the Virginia Democratic primary for governor, losing to former state senator Creigh Deeds.

And Public Policy Polling, our very active Raleigh outfit, gets bragging rights for pretty much nailing the outcome.

McAuliffe, for all his famous fundraising skills and indefatigable happy-talk, just doesn't wear well. We certainly got more than adequately chafed by his constant presence on cable news last February, March, and April, ignoring reality for the sake of Hillary.

Carry Him Back to Old Virginny

Remember Terry McAuliffe, former chair of the Democratic National Committee? McAuliffe played the Black Knight for Sen. Hillary Clinton during the primaries of 2008:

Black Knight: 'Tis but a scratch!
King Arthur: A scratch? Your arm's off!
Black Knight: No, it isn't!
King Arthur: Well, what's that then?
King Arthur: I've had worse.
King Arthur: You liar!
Black Knight: Come on, you pansy!

Ah, "Monty Python and the Holy Grail" taught us so much about life!

Even while McAuliffe was stubbornly refusing to admit that Sen. Clinton was losing the Democratic presidential nomination, he was planning his next political circus, and now he's come right out and announced that he's running for governor of Virginia.

We wish him well. We wish the state of Virginia well, since it's now a fellow blue state. And we thank God we receive no television feed from the Old Dominion and will not have to listen to those inevitable McAuliffe 30-second spots, which will seem much longer by the time he ceases to talk.