Holy Crap

Some of us love a conspiracy theory more than butter pecan ice cream. Some of us subscribe to the sure-fire way of knowing a conspiracy is true: if there's absolutely no evidence, it proves that the cover-up is working!

Public Policy Polling gives us plenty of face-palm moments today:

62% of Republicans believe that the Obama Administration is secretly trying to take everyone’s guns away.

One in four Americans say that President Obama is secretly trying to figure out a way to stay in office beyond 2017 – including almost half of Republicans (44%).

42% of Republicans think that Muslims are covertly implementing Sharia Law in American court systems.

Republicans (21%) are more than twice as likely as Democrats (9%) to believe that the U.S. government engages in so-called “false flag” operations, where the government plans and executes terrorist or mass shooting events and blames those actions on others.

Serious Question: Are NC Republicans Crazy?

Public Policy Polling found:

Foxx tops NC Republican wish list
Virginia Foxx tops the wish list of North Carolina Republicans for who they'd like as their Senate candidate next year: 17% pick her to 14% for Sue Myrick, 13% for Patrick McHenry, 11% for Renee Ellmers, 9% for George Holding, 6% for Richard Hudson, 4% for Mark Meadows, and 2% for Thom Tillis. 25% say that they prefer someone else or are unsure.

Pretty humiliating for ole Thom Tillis.

GOP-Dominated General Assembly ... Very Unpopular

Sometimes polling gives you the willies; sometimes it gives you ideas. From PPP:

One thing that's been true all year is that whenever the GOP legislature comes back to town, it gets less popular. That's the case once again after their late November return to Raleigh. Only 29% of voters now have a favorable opinion of the Republicans in the legislature, a new record low. The previous worst had been 33%. 48% of voters have an unfavorable opinion of them. The biggest issue for the Republicans is that independents, after voting for the GOP by a huge margin in legislative contests last year, now give them a 22/44 favorability rating.

Contained in such dismal numbers may be the key to the path forward for Gov. Perdue, who has her own bad polling to deal with:

Finally one finding in this poll points to a potential path to victory for Bev Perdue. 44% of voters in the state trust her more compared to 40% who put a greater deal of faith in the Republican legislature. Pat McCrory has tied himself closely to the unpopular new legislative majority so if Perdue can run against their agenda and McCrory's support of it, that might just be the way she pulls out a second term. It won't be easy, but it's something.

Republicans in Congress: "What's Good for Us ... Not Necessarily Good for You"

According to national opinion-gathering by Public Policy Polling, some 53% of Americans think that "incoming Congressmen who campaigned against the health care bill should put their money where their mouth is and decline government provided health care now that they're in office."

It's the GOP's own constituency that feel strongest about this:

"...Republicans and independents -- who put these folks in office in the first place -- strongly think they should refuse their government provided health care. GOP voters hold that sentiment by a 58/28 margin and indys do 56/27 .... Democrats are actually the most supportive of anti-health care Congressmen taking their health care, with 40% saying they should accept it to 46% who think they should decline."

Those liberals!

Republican members of Congress are pretty liberal too, when it comes to their own perks and Cadillac health coverage. It's just you and me and our needs that get them all pinch-nosed and pucker-mouthed.

Where's the Tea Party in the face of this kind of blatant hypocrisy?

Courage

No doubt about it: Democrats win the NC House and Senate, but the General Assembly cowers before the Religious Right.

The Rise & Fall of Terry McAuliffe

The Mr. Motor Mouth of the 2008 Democratic Presidential primaries got stomped badly yesterday in the Virginia Democratic primary for governor, losing to former state senator Creigh Deeds.

And Public Policy Polling, our very active Raleigh outfit, gets bragging rights for pretty much nailing the outcome.

McAuliffe, for all his famous fundraising skills and indefatigable happy-talk, just doesn't wear well. We certainly got more than adequately chafed by his constant presence on cable news last February, March, and April, ignoring reality for the sake of Hillary.

N.C. GOP Stands Tall for Bullying Gay Kids

The School Violence Protection Act, Senate Bill 526, passed the N.C. Senate yesterday. Not a single Republican senator voted for it because it recognized gay and lesbian students as potential targets of bullying. Republican politicians don't want to get caught being "gay friendly," no indeedy.

So Public Policy Polling's discussion today deserves some attention. In March, PPP found that 69% of the general public support the sexual orientation provision in the bill, and even a 51% majority of Republicans support the bill. Writes Tom Jensen,

This is a pretty good example of how legislative Republicans marginalize themselves and why Democrats have generally been able to keep control of the legislature in election years that otherwise went very well for the GOP. The truth is that the issues they choose to lose sleep over are outside the mainstream of even much of the Republican base.

In other words, the Republicans in the state senate are considerably to the right of even their base, who don't seem all that concerned that protecting gay kids from getting beat up is going to lead to Sodom&Gomorra, right here in River City!

Anyone waiting for the "rebranding" of Republicanism in N.C. needs to pack several meals and a bedroll.

Dick Burr Has a Hacking Cough

By way of Public Policy Polling, who got the analysis from The King of the Polling Nerds, Nate Silver, NC Sen. Dick Burr, who voted FOR George W. Bush's Big Bank Giveaway but who can't countenance President Obama's economic stimulus, is waaay out there in his opposition to the new president, especially given that Obama carried NC: "Burr has been the least cooperative of any Senator whose state did give its electoral votes to the President."

Gunny Freedom, a poster on the thread linked above, sez "Burr is a failure because he is a partisan hack."

Heath Shuler for U.S. Senate?

We've barely gotten one election past us, and there're people already talking about Richard Burr's U.S. Senate seat in 2010, and truth to tell (hang on to your gag reflex!) we're just a year and a month away from the candidate filing period for the 2010 general election.

Yesterday the Hendersonville Times-News runs a long article essentially beating the drum for Shuler to take on Burr. Shuler, after easily winning his first reelection race against a weak if not unstable opponent, seems more than willing for people to puff up his ego even further than he's puffed it up himself. "Heath the Giant Killer."

Now this morning, Public Policy Polling is up with a post seconding the Shuler nomination, saying that the only state-wide Democrat who could rival him as a winning Senate candidate would be Attorney General Roy Cooper. PPP takes it a step further by helpfully mentioning a couple of local state legislators who could handily win Shuler's House seat, if he vacates it to run for Senate. This we doubt, though PPP's statistics are impressive about how both of Shuler's potential replacements in the NC-11 did in their own reelections.

But leaving a now strong Democratic seat open in the overwhelmingly Republican NC-11 looks mighty iffy to us, though (okay, we'll admit it) we thought a candidate named Hagan had exactly no chance in 2008.

Obama, Hagan Expand N.C. Leads

Late-breaking news from Public Policy Polling. Here and here.

From the PPP press release:

Barack Obama is now out to his largest lead yet in a PPP survey of North Carolina, polling at 51% in the state compared to 44% for John McCain. Last week Obama's advantage was 49-46.

Independent voters continue to move toward Obama in droves. He now has a 51-33 lead with them. He's also now up to receiving 82% of the Democratic vote. Staying over the 80% threshold there would almost certainly ensure a victory in North Carolina.

McCain now leads among white voters just 55-39, an edge that's not nearly enough given Obama's 92-6 lead with black voters. George W. Bush won about two thirds of the white vote against both John Kerry and Al Gore in North Carolina....

In North Carolina's US Senate race challenger Kay Hagan continues to lead incumbent Elizabeth Dole, as she has now in PPP's last seven surveys of the race. Hagan's advantage is now up to 49-42. Hagan is annihilating Dole among suburban voters, 56-38. She's also shoring up her support with the key Democratic constituency of black voters, with whom she is now ahead 84-7, an improvement from 78-12 a week ago....

PPP surveyed 1,200 likely voters on October 18th and 19th. The survey's margin of error is +/- 2.8%....

A Second N.C. Poll Puts Obama in Lead

It was Republican pollster Rassmussen last week that had Obama leading McCain by two points in N.C.

Today the Democratic polling shop of Public Policy Polling, a home-grown N.C. outfit, has Obama up by the same two points, with the tanking economy leading the way as the number one reason for the turn-around.

"Independents are moving toward Obama in droves," saith PPP. The economy moves them too, of course, but the kind of racist caricaturing of Obama that came to us today in three different e-mails -- Obama as a shoeshine hunched over a triumphantly grinning Sarah Palin's feet -- is not helping John McCain among the independents (who happen to be in large part the youngest members of the electorate and who have managed to get a few steps beyond this kind of gutter racism, unlike their elders).

Palin herself encouraged the racist attacks by referring to Obama as "Sambo" when he beat "that bitch Clinton" in the primaries.

Obama's leading McCain in N.C. polling actually seems to have something to do with Sarah Palin as a negative drag on McCain among Tarheels. The same PPP poll found that Palin's favorability rating went from +8 to -3 in North Carolina in three weeks, a negative shift of 11 points:

She is particularly unpopular with independents in North Carolina. 46% of them now say her selection makes them less likely to vote for John McCain compared to just 36% who say her spot on the ticket makes them more inclined to support him. Even among Republicans enthusiasm for her has dropped from 75% to 67%.

Buyers remorse.

Junior Johnson Endorses Roy Carter for Congress

Video.

As endorsements go, this one's fairly significant in the 5th Dist.

P.S.
And by the way, recent polling shows the Carter-Foxx match-up the closest Congressional district race in the state of North Carolina, according to Tom Jensen at Public Policy Polling.

Hagan Pulls Ahead of Dole in Senate Race

Public Policy Polling credits the "Liddy Dole is 93" ads paid for by the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee.

You can expect Liddy to counter-punch. She still has a pile o' cash approximately as high as an elephant's eye.

The Barr Effect

Public Policy Polling is tracking the presidential race in N.C. now with Bob Barr factored in. Make up your own mind what it all means. But one thing appears crystal clear: Barr ain't helping John McSame.