Monday, May 05, 2008

The Hazards of Any Crystal Ball

Dr. Stephen Gheen, an editor at The Political Junkies and an avowed Hillary Clinton supporter, has sent out an e-mail analyzing voter turn-out in North Carolina's early-voting period (sorry, no link). He says Obama is winning the early vote by 57% to Hillary's 43%.

Analyzing hard data supplied by the North Carolina State Board of Elections, Gheen reports that some 333,000+ North Carolina voters cast votes in early voting through last Saturday at 1 p.m. Get this: some 63% of all votes cast in early voting were cast by women; 44% of early voters were black, a performance that runs 10% higher than normal.

Gheen's prediction that Obama wins North Carolina easily is based on the following assumptions:
1. Obama receives 90% of all Black votes

2. The small block of Asian voters breaks 60% to Clinton

3. American Indian/Native Alaskans break for Clinton with 55%

4. Clinton receives 70% of all White voters

5. Undesignated voters break 55% to Clinton

We're not sure what Gheen means by "Undesignated voters." Apparently, he is not referring to Unaffiliated voters, because later in his e-mail he says:
The analysis above includes ONLY Democrats early voting. The composition does not include Unaffiliated voters who may choose to vote in the Democratic Primary in NC. Some 61,000 Unaffiliated voters requested a ballot for the Democratic Primary. Sen. Obama has generally performed better with Unaffiliated voters across the US than Sen. Clinton.

Despite whether his crystal ball is clouded or not, Gheen's numbers and projections make for interesting eve-of-the-primary reading.

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