Madison Cawthorn Is Finished

 

Otherwise, Trump-endorsed candidates in North Carolina did well, proving once again that the NCGOP is too far gone to save. But Cawthorn's meteoric rise and sudden fall is pretty much complete, though he has months still to spend in office embarrassing himself and the rest of us. 

Cawthorn did crack the magic 30% threshold, taking 31.90% of the vote, but state Senator Chuck Edwards did better with 33.40%. The much-ballyhooed moderate woman Wendy Nevarez, promoted as the antidote to Cawthorn by the Democratic founders of the American Muckrakers PAC, just got 10% and came in 7th of 8 candidates. Maybe she'd like to switch parties to some group where she'd be more appreciated.

On the Democratic side of the 11th CD, Jasmine Beach-Ferrara blew away all competitors, taking almost 60% of the vote in a crowded field. Katie Dean, for whom I felt some enthusiasm, came in second with 25.70% of the total vote.

Salute to a Western NC Republican Moderate

 

Wendy Nevarez with Adam Kinzinger

Wendy Nevarez has been running the longest to unseat Madison Cawthorn. She filed with the Federal Elections Commission on April 7th last year, the first of a slew of Republicans who subsequently declared they would also challenge Cawthorn in the 11th CD primary. That's how odorous the boy congressman has made himself.

Background: Nevarez spent 2001-2017 as a Petty Officer First Class in the US Navy, works now as a claims specialist for the Social Security Administration. Earned a Master's in public administration. Pulled a Republican ballot in every primary in Buncombe County, except in 2016 when she pulled the Democratic one. Trump turned her stomach.

So can you think of a more improbable Republican candidate? Against Madison Cawthorn? In the R+infinity District 11 of the North Carolina western mountains? Nah. But she's been a bright presence, active on social media as a kind of beacon for other Republican women who couldn't and still can't stand Trump, who want comity and commonsense for problem-solving -- few as that class of Republican woman may be in the western mtns. The votes Nevarez ends up getting on May 17th -- however few -- will be the targets the Democratic standard-bearer will need November 8th. (A possible Democratic flip in the west became a pleasing prospect for awhile, back during the months Watauga got lumped in with Asheville. But no more. It was widely rumored that Cawthorn poached Tim Moore's custom-fit 13th CD next door because he couldn't stand the prospect of all those college students voting against him. Who needs all those smarter-than-Thou teenagers screaming at you?)

So Wendy Nevarez's chances notwithstanding, I can't help being proud of her. I wrote last September that she'd make an excellent conservative Southern Democrat.

She's getting batted around pretty bad right now by the Trumpists because of that photo above. Nevarez attended Rep. Adam Kinzinger's CountryFirst (dot.com) convention. You know Kinzinger, the Republican from Illinois who voted to impeach Trump and who is one of the "terrible two" Republicans participating in the January 6th investigation. Going to his convention and getting that photo kind of makes Nevarez a bad-ass to boot.

Tried to count all the Republicans filed in the old/new 11th. Hard to do at the moment, because some candidates filed in what they thought would be the 14th CD, and some (like Josh Remillard) stalked Cawthorn to the new 13th. And some are in the original 11th (along with Virginia Foxx, who thought that was her new bunk). In other words there are candidates filed all over the place. They have until noon on March 4 to sort it out.

Meanwhile, no one knows what Madison Cawthorn will do. He looks blocked every direction. The 13th -- where's he's actually filed currently -- is no longer attractive. Back in the 11th, which he abandoned for greener pastures, he's already endorsed Michele Woodhouse, a marketer of vagina rejuvenation (?) --she billed herself as the "Vagina Road Warrior." Anyway, Cawthorn, a judge of horse flesh, handpicked her to succeed him -- and contributed to her campaign. She might graciously step aside for him, since as of this morning she isn't listed as a candidate on the NCSBE data for candidate filings under the maps ordered by the NC Supremes. But even if she dropped out, that hardly clears the field for Cawthorn.

Comms Dir. Luke Ball

He'll still face current frontrunner Chuck Edwards in the May primary. Edwards is a fast food merchandizer and state senator who represents Buncombe, Henderson, and Transylvania counties. He's said to be a strong contender to win it all. Pisgah Inn host Bruce O'Connell is also running, also essentially as a Trumpist, and he has a shit-ton of personal money he's willing to spend. He's a businessman contemptuous of Cawthorn's juvenile need for constant attention. Rod Honeycutt, an Army colonel, has been actively campaigning, and his military background is going to be attractive to some, though he seems somewhat moderate to me -- no advocate for Trump -- though not as moderate as Wendy Nevarez. 

Both Cawthorn and his Director of Communications (and messaging mastermind) Luke Ball have had no comment about where Cawthorn will land -- which district -- or if he'll land at all. Background on Ball (since he's clearly calling the shots for Cawthorn): He rose in Trumpist campaign ranks to become Matt Gaetz's comms guy until he couldn't take all the sex scandals. He resigned "amid allegations that Gaetz had an inappropriate sexual encounter with a minor and a reported investigation into alleged violations of federal sex trafficking laws." Ball got immediately snatched up by Cawthorn (with his own sexual predator rep), who most certainly is too a great judge of horse flesh. Only question is who's the jockey in this scenario. 

With a team like that, you could sure organize a kegger.

Flickrs of Democrats Running in the 14th CD Primary in March

 

I'm shopping -- along with most other Democrats and progressive-minded independents -- for the best (winnable) candidate to support in the March 2022 Democratic primary for the Congressional seat in the new District 14. 

I gravitate to video biographies. Tight, condensed, seeringly honest often, sometimes cleverly manipulative (even when it doesn't realize it). I like steely forthrightness but I also don't mind a little manipulation, and let's face it, winning voters over takes a special intelligence for shaping attitudes and expectations. An effective public performance stops time. So I probably make way too many judgments based on appearance (body language, speech, eye contact, the overall narrative), but that's what it's come down to. Assuming all other factors about a candidate's philosophy are basically even, it want to see the pitch. (I'm a shallow person.)

Below is a first collection of candidate videos from the Democratic side of the 14th CD. All were made before the new congressional maps landed (so you'll hear mention of "District 11"), back when we all couldn't wait to run against Madison Cawthorn of lasting memory. But Cawthorn is gone to the new 11th CD. The Republicans will nominate someone else on their side, someone comparably bad probably (in the manner of the new GOP -- tears for Wendy Nevarez!), and with the numbers/demographics tilted in their favor, the Democratic standard-bearer has got to be dynamic. Cawthorn's chosen GOP successor who wins their primary can't just waltz in, especially if they prove uninspiring to the neo-Confederates who loved Madison. 

Some announced Democratic candidates don't (yet) have videos, or I couldn't find them. And very possibly there'll be additional Democrats whom we've not heard of yet filing after Dec. 6th. We'll follow up with additional moving pitchers as they become available and as we approach March 8th.

If you watch at all you should watch to the end of each video. These pieces of art take money and time to produce. That deserves some respect.

Another Republican Intends To Challenge Madison Cawthorn in the 2022 Primary

Rod Honeycutt, standing next to his
wife, and their entire family

The entrance of Rod (Rodney) Honeycutt into the 11th CD 2022 Republican primary instantly raises the question: Will too many Republican challengers spoil The Upset? See, most if not all of the announced challengers are better qualified to do the job than Madison Cawthorn is doing, the job of government he's hired to do, but isn't, because he's much more interested in grandstanding for the Trumpist yahoos, while raising beaucoup bucks. Will too many credible adults in the race divide the opposition (other adult voters who have not lost their minds) and let Cawthorn squeak back into Washington?

It's a concern. We've seen it happen before, in both parties: Too many challengers divide the dissatisfied and allow the incumbent to waltz on. So we hope that Republicans in the 11th CD, at least those who want better representation, will coalesce around a single challenger.

That might be Army retired Col. Rod Honeycutt, who tries to strike a reasoned and adult profile on his campaign website -- in clear contrast to Cawthorn. Unfortunately, Honeycutt's announcement video (posted on the homepage of the website) offers zero in the way of personality, personal bio, view of the world -- any sense of an individual at all. Instead, we get the sound of Indian wardrums. Huh? To what purpose did some bright campaign functionary decide that was a good idea?

In his bio, Honeycutt is clearly drawing a contrast to Cawthorn, by emphasizing that he grew up poor and has had a good work ethic all his life -- things Cawthorn never experienced and could only read about (if he reads anything at all but his own press clippings). Honeycutt's most direct reproach to Cawthorn -- without mentioning his name -- is buried at the bottom of the page here: "I will not watch from the sidelines as inexperienced, self-promoting characters seek to further careers while the hard-working men and women of WNC suffer the consequences."

Honeycutt is a Republican, remember, so you've got to expect some of this: He thinks the government should force Twitter and Facebook to give Donald Trump back his platforms for spreading dangerous misinformation and silly conspiracy theories. Bad. But he also favors background checks for the purchase of firearms. He complains that Biden's stimulus checks and unemployment benefits have made workers lazy (!) but that giving Federal money to businesses because of the COVID turndown is just fine. That imbalance of economic concern tells me a great deal about Honeycutt's ingrained Republicanism -- landlords, yes; renters, no. He says he wants to protect the environment, but without any specificity.

His military achievement could propel Honeycutt into first place against Cawthorn. Plus he clearly isn't crazy and could have been much more extreme on his website about his political philosophy, to attract the voters who are still in love with Cawthorn's vaudeville show ("The Compleat Asshole"). Honeycutt builds a relatively moderate resume throughout and looks like he wouldn't be a continued embarrassment to the district.

Other Republican Candidates Already Running Against Cawthorn

The first announced was Wendy Nevarez, a moderate Republican woman who at first glance doesn't "fit" the district that sent Madison Cawthorn to Congress. She's a Navy veteran, a professional, and she's gotten active on Twitter. She's pro-vaccination, which means she's no Trumpist. Most entertainingly, she doesn't mind spanking Cawthorn on his chubby bottom for being such a jerky kid: "Worry about doing your job better!" Bravely (for a Republican in the 11th CD), Nevarez slapped back at Cawthorn for his declaration that he was introducing legislation to abolish OSHA: "Have you ever opened one of their manuals?" she demanded. "No you haven’t. Politicizing the 100+ employee mandated vaccine/testing reqs doesn’t warrant gutting an entire admin. dedicated to protecting workers from unsafe work conditions since 1970!" A Republican defending a Federal regulatory agency! Good Lord.

Under most circumstances, Wendy Nevarez would make a good Southern Democrat.

Bruce O'Connell, well-known operator for the Pisgah Inn on the Blue Ridge Parkway since the late 1970s. He was profiled extensively on WataugaWatch here.

At the time of that writing O'Connell had no on-line campaign presence. He's rectified that, but I haven't yet taken the time to delve into his presentation and how it might contrast with incumbent Cawthorn and with the other candidates. I'll get there eventually.

Another Republican Planning to Challenge Incumbent Madison Cawthorn in the 2022 Primary

 

Bruce O'Connell

Chris Cooper reported two days ago that another Republican has filed paper with the Federal Elections Commission to run in the NC11 against incumbent nose-miner Madison Cawthorn -- Bruce O'Connell, who has no campaign infrastructure yet but who does have a noteworthy personal history in the 11th CD.

O'Connell has run the Pisgah Inn on the Blue Ridge Parkway since the late 1970s. The inn is actually owned by the Federal government, with O'Connell the "concessionaire" running it. In October of 2013 he was ordered to shutter the inn because of the government shutdown that was engineered, just incidentally, by Congressman Mark Meadows, big in the Freedom Caucus at the time and big in the 11th CD.

At first O'Connell defied the shutdown order and achieved hero status among people who hate the government:

O'Connell said he has heard from thousands of people since making his stand. His story caught fire on social media with tweets and Facebook posts decrying the government's move to close the business. He said the support has been humbling.

"I've heard from liberals, and I've heard from conservatives," he said. "I've heard all of them, from everybody. They all have said the same thing, every one of them: Don't give up. Fight tyranny. That tells me that if someone threw a match in the middle of the country it would explode right now." [USA Today]

...about 30 protesters, some of them identifying themselves as members of the Tea Party, showed up at the inn to protest its closure. Bruce O’Connell, the managing director of the Pisgah Inn, became an overnight hero for anti-government conservatives and the inn was seen as a symbolic battleground. [Ashvegas]

When Park Service police cars blocked the driveways, O'Connell had no choice but to comply. The shut down lasted a week. (Speaking of cognitive dissonance: Tea Partiers, who fervently wanted the government shut down, rallied behind a concessionaire who defied the order to shut down. It's head-spinning time in the mountains!)

O'Connell gets high marks for his management of the inn:

As the inn’s concessionaire, O’Connell has won contracts to keep running the place until 2024; swapped the restaurant’s canned food for quality, local fare; and implemented numerous green upgrades—from solar panels to tankless water heaters—while adding amenities like Wi-Fi. The inn gets rave reviews and was voted the Best National Park Lodge in the country by the readers of USA Today in 2015. [WNC Magazine]

Madison Cawthorn

So -- just trying to keep up with Republican politics in the 11th CD -- three personalities at least will probably appear on the Republican primary ballot in 2022:

Incumbent Madison Cawthorn, the neo-maxi zoom dweebie we've come to know

Wendy Nevarez, from Asheville, a Navy veteran we profiled here (and who we think has zero chance of winning a Republican primary)

Bruce O'Connell, notorious hotelier with an axe to grind and a good reputation among Tea Partiers

 

Could Another Republican Defeat Madison Cawthorn?

 

Short answer: yes, in the 2022 Republican primary. Long answer: also probably yes, and maybe only another Republican, because the 11th CD of North Carolina ain't conducive to a Democratic victory. Things change, of course, but still.

Thing is, another Republican, yes, but probably not the one who has now declared she's running against Cawthorn in 2022. Cory Vaillancourt profiled her yesterday in the Smoky Mountain News:

...Asheville Republican Wendy Nevarez.

Nevarez’s profile on Linkedin says she holds a master’s in public administration and that she is a claims specialist for the Social Security Administration.

Her personal Facebook page says she’s a Western Carolina University graduate and had been an E-6 in the United States Navy from 2001 through 2017.

Her campaign Facebook page just launched, but a campaign website, www.wendyforwnc.com, is not yet active.

Voter records show Nevarez voted in Pasquotank County from 2008 through 2012, and in Buncombe County thereafter. She pulled Republican ballots in each of those Primary Elections, except in 2020, when she chose a Democratic ballot.

A Federal Elections Commission search revealed that Nevarez established a campaign committee on April 7, but little else....

I don't see Nevarez motivating the Republican primary voters in the 11th District to kick out the polarizing Cawthorn. She looks like a moderate Republican woman, not someone who fits the conservative politics of that district (except maybe for Asheville itself).