Ricky Hurtado Takes Up the Democratic Banner in NCHouse 63

On July 10th I was very keen on Erica McAdoo's running again in 2020 in NC House District 63, because as a first-time candidate in 2018, Erica came within 300 votes of beating a strong Republican incumbent. But McAdoo dropped out of the 2020 race on July 18. Ricky Hurtado, the son of Hispanic immigrants, has stepped forward to take McAdoo's place, and he did so with the backing of NC House members Ashton Clemmons, Graig Meyer, Zack Hawkins, and others.

Numbers guru Michael Bitzer rates the remapped district as "Competitive Lean Republican." The "competitive" part of that ranking likely arises from the district's shedding of some 7.50% of its previous registered Republicans in the most recent remapping. FlipNC.org is a good deal more sanguine about the prospects; they list this district as their number one most flippable seat in the NC House for 2020.

Can the son of working-class immigrant parents, even a man with an inspiring story and a big personality like Ricky Hurtado, do as well as Erica McAdoo did in 2018, and do even better, which is what it will take to overcome first-time-candidate status as well as some baked-in cultural resistance in Alamance County?

Hurtado has an appealing video posted on Twitter in which both he and his wife Yazmin talk straight to the camera about themselves as Burlington natives who went on to distinguish themselves via higher education and productive, community-oriented careers. Don't understand why but so far that video hasn't appeared on Hurtado's Facebook page nor on his website.

Perhaps he'll add policy positions going forward, but so far Hurtado's website is devoid of any issue advocacy. He's a blank slate, and as much as I want to believe that his outstanding eleemosynary involvement in his community makes him the candidate for my values, I'd still like to see a few things spelled out.

Erica McAdoo Withdraws, Endorses Ricky Hurtado

Recently wrote here about Erica McAdoo, running again in 2020 in House District 63.

She announced yesterday that she's withdrawing from the race and endorsing Ricky Hurtado instead.

Hurtado is the son of Hispanic immigrants, the product of North Carolina public schools, and a first-generation college graduate. "He serves on the steering committee for Alamance Achieves, an innovative education initiative in Alamance County; is Vice-Chair of the Board of Directors for NC Child, a statewide child advocacy organization; is a Commissioner for MyFutureNC, a commission to advance college attainment and workforce development across North Carolina; and is a member of the Board of Directors of the United Way of North Carolina."

Erica McAdoo Came So Close in 2018. She's Running Again in 2020

Democrat Erica McAdoo's candidacy in 2018 for NC House District 63 (Alamance County) was a heartbreaker on the night of November 6. She came within 299 votes of beating incumbent Stephen Ross in a district that was rated "competitive." McAdoo made it competitive by mounting a ground campaign of plenty of door-knocking and direct-voter contact. It takes volunteers to do that, which also takes the ability to warm the heart and stir enthusiasm.

That enthusiasm has got to reappear and grow in 2020, 'cause Erica McAdoo is running again.





District 63 is one of those gerrymanders engineered by advanced computer technology.

That fish-hook appendage on the left side above -- the tentacle into the Boone Station township (Elon) -- why, it's mostly over 97% white, O my brethren, which might give you a hint that the mapmaker needed that jog to offset the 31% black population in the Pleasant Grove township (the northernmost rectangle in the map above) and in south Burlington.

The most affluent townships in District 63: Melville, Boone Station, and Thompson (Melville and Thompson together make up much of the easternmost and southernmost portion of the district).

The townships with the highest educational attainment: Boone Station, Melville, and Thompson.

Hmmm. 

If I were running McAdoo's ground game, I'd run a telephone and text poll of all voters in Boone Station, Melville, and Thompson with one question: "Do you support President Donald J. Trump." That's it. That single question is going to turn up surprises of which voters to door-knock in 2020. Also which voters to avoid. (See, there's more than one use for computers!)

She'll have to be just as active in Pleasant Grove and in other black neighborhoods with direct voter contact (and voter registration!). If African-American voters aren't energized in 2020, all else is lost.

McAdoo is evidently running on the same themes as 2018, particularly support for schools, support for small business, and support for expanding Medicaid (judging from the too-long announcement video above). I think I'd flip that order, magnify health care and the incumbent Ross's fealty to a party that is still resisting Governor Cooper's attempt to expand the Affordable Care Act in North Carolina. The resistance is just meanness, especially on the part of Senate President Phil Berger. (By yesterday, there was a watered-down Medicaid expansion bill brought to a House committee by Republican Rep. Donny Lambeth and voted out favorably. It's sudden appearance signaled a softening on the issue among House Republicans. Is incumbent Ross among the melted? I would bet he is. Donny Lambeth's Medicaid-lite bill has a work requirement, which is unnecessary as the vast majority of those without any access to medical insurance are the working poor.)

But maybe before I did any of the above, say tomorrow, I'd ask my own campaign people, "How's the oppo research coming on Representative Ross's record in Raleigh?" He's got many votes to highlight, especially if he suddenly decides he's in favor of Medicaid expansion in North Carolina.

More Democrats Making Money Waves in North Carolina

Slogging through Second Quarter candidate finance reports on the state Board of Elections site isn't my favorite form of entertainment, though I've spent some hours looking at the Democratic candidates for the General Assembly that I'm most interested in -- and at their Republican opponents (see various posts, down-column) -- so I'm relieved that the News and Observer today saves me some work on candidates I hadn't yet gotten to. The NandO spotlights some I've already written about on WataugaWatch, but here are a few new ones:

In House District 104, Democrat Brandon Lofton has $95,500 cash-on-hand to first-term Republican incumbent Andy Dulin's $50,900. The 104th is a dense wedge pretty much in the south-central middle of Mecklenburg County.

Democrat Brandon Lofton first came to our attention back on January 14 of this year as one of the potential stars of this cycle (full disclosure: I'm a contributor to his campaign). Lofton is a lawyer and a partner at Robinson Bradshaw, concentrating on public finance. Quoting from the Robinson Bradshaw website: "He regularly serves as bond counsel, underwriter's counsel, borrower's counsel and bank counsel for tax-exempt and taxable financings. Brandon represents municipalities, counties, hospitals, universities, nonprofits and underwriters in the financing and refinancing of capital improvements. He also represents clients in a variety of public finance transactions, including general obligation bonds, revenue bonds, installment financings and limited obligation bonds." Lofton graduated from Chapel Hill with his bachelor's in 2001 and then earned his law degree at New York University in 2004, trailing service awards and academic honors along the way. Lofton was honored by his law school as the featured representative and speaker for the class of 2004. He described "his childhood dream of being a lawyer, explaining how he wanted to be a source of positive social change and to emulate legal heroes such as Thurgood Marshall." He's got volunteers door-knocking for him and volunteers calling for more volunteers to door-knock. That's what we light to see!

In House District 23 (Alamance County), Democrat Erica McAdoo is up over Republican incumbent Stephen Ross, a member of House leadership seeking his fourth term, $58,700 to Ross's $20,300.

Democrat Erica McAdoo was also written up on WataugaWatch on January 14. Love seeing this in her Twitter feed today: "Last weekend's stats: 951 doors knocked, 60+ volunteers. Join us as we canvass again this weekend on July 22nd." And I applaud this stand on redistricting: "It's time for creation of an independent redistricting commission!" McAdoo is the firm manager for The Paynter Law Firm in Hillsborough and teaches at Guilford College and Meredith College (while simultaneously working on an MBA at ECU). She earned a Master's of Music from Appalachian State, a paralegal certificate from Meredith, and a B.S. in piano from Campbell University. According to the Paynter website, McAdoo previously "worked in the legal industry as a litigation paralegal where she was frequently responsible for legal research, document drafting, employee training, office and file organization, client recruitment and retainment, implementation of firm-sponsored community events, identification of marketing opportunities, and development of marketing materials."

In Senate District 18, Democrat Mack Paul has outraised incumbent Republican John Alexander by an astonishing $305,100 to Alexander's $36,100. District 18 takes in all of Franklin County, the northernmost tier of Wake County, and a very weird descending hook of land that invades the northern suburbs of Raleigh.

Democrat Mack Paul was another of those Democrats I wrote about on January 14 who were making me "anticipate November like Christmas morning." Paul is a Raleigh real-estate attorney and former Wake County Democratic Party chair. He says his campaign will focus on economic issues affecting the middle class, and he says the Republican-dominated Senate has “been focused way too much on issues that divide us.” He was a founding member of Triangle Growth Strategies and the Triangle Smart Growth Coalition, two groups that brought together homebuilders and environmentalists on growth issues. As a partner at Morningstar Law Group, he has represented big developers who were defeated in their plans by local opposition, but Paul says he does not support recent legislation backed by developers to limit local governments’ planning and zoning powers. “I feel like it’s important that our local governments have authority to implement the policies that they need because they understand the issues at the local level,” he said. I want to believe him. Back in the middle of June, he posted a Facebook ad for interns in communications, finance, and field operations. He can certainly afford to pay a big team of young people.

In House District 103, Democrat Rachel Hunt is up over four-term Republican incumbent Bill Brawley $132,700 to $88,600. District 103 lies in the southeasternmost part of Mecklenburg County and hugs the Union County line.

Democrat Rachel Hunt waited until the last week of filing to jump into the race, but she has plenty of Democratic juice supporting her. She is one of former Governor Jim Hunt's daughters, so she is already networked in a helpful way. Like her father, Rachel has been and will continue to be a champion for public education. She is a board member of the NC Foundation for Public School Children, and she started two companies that help parents and students, including those with disabilities, find a good school and quality education. “I’ve spent my life helping North Carolina grow into a beautiful, inspiring state that looked out for the little guy and put strong public education above everything else, but lately, that shared vision has been threatened. I am running because I can no longer stand back and watch this great state that my family and so many other families like ours worked so hard to build be undermined by politicians in Raleigh.” She has served as the chair of Generation Nation and the Charlotte Mecklenburg Youth Lead and Youth Councils. She trained as a lawyer. Governor Roy Cooper recently appointed her to the Education and Workforce Innovative Council.

In House District 62, Martha Shafer has outraised four-term Republican incumbent John Faircloth $96,700 to $10,700. District 62 is a big wedge of Guilford County along the Forsyth County line.

Democrat Martha Shafer is one of the new Democratic women running in 2018 who've been endorsed by Emily's List of North Carolina. She's a native of Charlotte but has lived in Guilford County for some 25 years. She's a retired hospital administrator, trained in health administration at Duke University, so she's particularly sharp on health-care issues: "Having spent her entire career working in healthcare, Martha knows first-hand that many North Carolina families are struggling to cover basic health needs. Unfortunately, the General Assembly has decided NOT to expand access to Medicaid to 500,000 North Carolinians who would benefit under the Affordable Care Act. Not only is this immoral, it is fiscally irresponsible. Expanding Medicaid would create 43,000 jobs by 2020, both in health care and other sectors, and the state’s economy could gain tens of billions in business revenue. Most of the cost would be paid by Federal dollars, which are currently funding expanded care in thirty-one other states that have made the rational and caring choice to expand Medicaid. Expanding Medicaid will lower the amount of charity care that hospitals provide, which will put downward pressure on insurance premiums for insured patients, making expansion a win for everyone." https://marthashafer.com/ Shafer also highlights the shabby way public education has been treated since a Republican super-majority took over in Raleigh: "Public education is not being adequately funded; per pupil spending is down since 2008, putting us as one of the states that spends the least per student in the country. Laws that directly affect our children in the classroom are rushed through without open debate and fair hearings, leading to bad decisions."

In Senate District 17, Democrat Sam Searcy looks to be overpowering three-term incumbent Republican Tamara Barringer, $373,500 to $48,800. Senate District 17 takes in the biggest chunk of southern Wake County including Cary, Fuquay-Varina, and Holly Springs.

Democrat Sam Searcy has a law degree, but he's gotten people's attention through his entrepreneurial activities. In 2016 Searcy teamed up with some of his previous business partners and a new guy with an old-world recipe for long-grain rice distilled vodka, and they formed Graybeard Distillery in Durham, which now touts its success as "the largest grain-to-glass distillery in North Carolina." Searcy's life story to get to that success was no bed of roses. “I’ve seen first-hand what happens when North Carolina families struggle to make ends meet,” said Searcy. “My family lost our home when I was in 7th Grade, and I began working to help support my family when I was fourteen. Too many families in North Carolina are facing the same challenges we did." "Sam Searcy grew up in the small town of Hendersonville, NC. His mother was a teacher’s assistant in public schools and his dad worked in the factories. Sam became the first person in his family to graduate from a four-year college. With the help of student loans and on-campus jobs, he put himself through Appalachian State University. Sam worked a few different jobs until the Great Recession hit. He, like many North Carolinians, found himself laid off. He took a job at Lowe's garden center to support his family. Eventually, he helped start two local companies which continue to employ people right here in North Carolina." One of his campaign issues that should resonate with struggling North Carolinians: "Having worked in the healthcare industry and helped build a successful medical services company, I believe we can and should do more to lower costs. But, Republicans in Raleigh have put the health of thousands of North Carolinians at risk by refusing to expand access to Medicaid. I will work to ensure that every person in North Carolina has access to quality, affordable healthcare."

In House District 37, Democrat Sydney Batch is outraising her Republican opponent for this open seat, $91,900 to $68,000. The former Republican incumbent in this district (which is pretty much entirely inside Sam Searcy's Senate District 17 in southern Wake -- see above) waited until near the end of candidate filing to decide not to run.

Sydney Batch with husband J. Patrick Williams
and their two sons

Democrat Sydney Batch got written up on WataugaWatch way back on January 2nd, when she was among the first wave of new Democrats announcing their plans to run in 2018. She is a graduate of UNC-Chapel Hill, with both a master's degree in social work and a law degree. She and her husband J. Patrick Williams opened their own law firm in 2005. She has wide and intense experience in child welfare advocacy and family law. She says on her website, "I fight every day for families across Wake County who are worried about their future. Whether stressed about sending their kids to a good public school, paying back their student loans, or affording quality health care and finding a good, well-paying job, too many people feel the deck is stacked against them. Despite these struggles, I also get to see the many common values that bind us. People want affordable, accessible health care, quality and affordable education, safe air to breathe, clean water to drink, and a fair paycheck. Most of all, they want their children to live a more prosperous life than they have. I’m running because I want to make a difference for those people who feel stressed, and to work with them through our common shared values to make a better Wake county. There’s no doubt that the challenges facing us are great. However, so is our will. I humbly ask for your support.” Glad to see that Batch has been teaming up with the Sam Searcy campaign for direct voter contact in their overlapping districts.

Yates-Lockamy in House District 46

The North Carolina Free Enterprise Foundation (Jonathan Kappler, really) currently lists 14 NC House seats as "competitive." Five of those seats are already held by Democrats. The other nine are currently held by Republicans, though two of them are now technically "open seats" because the Republican incumbent had planned to go fishing next year.

I've already written about several of the Democrats running for those Republican-held seats:

Ron Wesson (two days ago), District 1

Joe Sam Queen (scroll down), District 119

Terence Everitt (scroll down -- with a primary opponent), District 35

Sydney Batch, District 37

Erica McAdoo (scroll down), District 63

Julie von Haefen, District 36


Three others of the 14 districts will have Democratic primaries (including District 35, where Terence Everitt is running), and I've a hill to climb yet researching those races, as some candidates don't have a web presence. The same deficiency goes for a couple of other Democrats without primaries who haven't yet made it onto Watauga Watch (District 46 and 51). Until today.

Barbara Yates-Lockamy

Democrat Barbara Yates-Lockamy, running against a Republican incumbent named Jones in District 46.

District 46 now carves out a crescent on the eastern side of Robeson County and dips south toward the coast along the South Carolina border to take in the western side of Columbus County. It cuts out Pembroke (and its university) and clearly jerks east to keep away from Lumberton. (Looks like the map-drawer had a sudden sneezing fit.) Columbus County has over a dozen little towns and hamlets, the largest of which is Whiteville. But otherwise -- with Lumberton eliminated -- district 46 is a district without a large metropolitan magnet.

Barbara Yates-Lockamy is since 2010 a member of the Columbus County Board of Education (currently serving as chair, and she's an honorary member of the All-State School Board) and is prominent throughout the region. She serves on the Board of Directors of the NC Caucus of Black School Board Members, and in 2013 she was elected to the Board of Directors of the North Carolina School Board Association. On the Columbus Board of Education she co-exists with an otherwise all-male, all-white board. 

She lives in the county seat of Whiteville. When she was vice chair of the Columbus County Board in 2017, she supported the consolidation of Columbus County Schools with the Whiteville City Schools: "approximately 75-percent of Columbus County and Whiteville City schools facilities are over 50 years old and a gradual decline in enrollment has emphasized the need to consolidate."

The Board of Education of Whiteville City Schools fought the consolidation hard. "Whiteville City Schools Superintendent Charles Garland says the merger would not save money and would reduce state funding. Last week, Garland told [a reporter for WWAY-TV] it would be a significant loss of state dollars coming in to a poor economic county."

The opponents of consolidation went to their Republican General Assembly members, who told them that consolidation was ultimately in the hands of the seven-member county Board of Commissioners, only one of which represents Whiteville in their seven-district plan. Whiteville is feeling put upon and under-represented, and Yates-Lockamy putatively represents Whiteville on the Columbus County School Board. The school consolidation vote probably hurts her -- maybe -- with some of her base. It's curious -- in all the local press coverage of consolidation, Yates-Lockamy is never quoted. She's either very silent or simply ignored.

So far, Yates-Lockamy has no campaign infrastructure -- no Facebook, no website, no other social media at all. Someone needs to help her out.

Four More Reasons To Anticipate Next November like Christmas Morning

With new polling showing a 16-point "motivation gap" (67%-51%) between Democrats and Republicans itching to vote in 2018 elections for the North Carolina General Assembly, we shall proceed in this space with celebration of some of the first-time Democratic candidates who are announcing they'll run this year:

Brandon Lofton

Brandon Lofton, running in the 104th NC House District

District currently covers much of south Charlotte and has been "reliably Republican"

Incumbent Republican: Andy Dulin, newly elected in 2016 to replace Ruth Samuelson (who was sometimes a "moderate" R). Dulin's an Appalachian State graduate (1984), with a bachelor’s in travel, tourism, and marketing. He was previously on the Charlotte city council, 2005-2013, and he told the Observer in 2016 that he wouldn't support the repeal of HB2. Just yesterday, the Charlotte Observer pointed out that if the court accepts the redrawn GA district maps produced by the special master, Dulin's 104th becomes considerably less congenial to The Party of Trump.

Democrat Brandon Lofton is a lawyer and a partner at Robinson Bradshaw, concentrating on public finance. Quoting from the Robinson Bradshaw website: "He regularly serves as bond counsel, underwriter's counsel, borrower's counsel and bank counsel for tax-exempt and taxable financings. Brandon represents municipalities, counties, hospitals, universities, nonprofits and underwriters in the financing and refinancing of capital improvements. He also represents clients in a variety of public finance transactions, including general obligation bonds, revenue bonds, installment financings and limited obligation bonds."

Lofton graduated from Chapel Hill with his bachelor's in 2001 and then earned his law degree at New York University in 2004, trailing service awards and academic honors along the way. Lofton was honored by his law school as the featured representative and speaker for the class of 2004. He described "his childhood dream of being a lawyer, explaining how he wanted to be a source of positive social change and to emulate legal heroes such as Thurgood Marshall."

If you want to contribute to Brandon Lofton's campaign, click here: Act Blue Directory (scroll down). 

Erica McAdoo, running in the 63rd NC House District

Erica McAdoo

District covers Alamance County

Incumbent Republican: Stephen M. Ross, a Wells-Fargo banker (hiss!) and previously the mayor of Burlington, first elected to the General assembly in 2012. He recently voted to eliminate judicial primaries in the state (bad!), but some of his other ratings make him look like a squishy moderate: the American Conservative Union rated his usefulness at 42%, and the National Rifle Association put his slavishness to their special interests at 57%.

Democrat Erica McAdoo is "Firm Manager" for The Paynter Law Firm in Hillsborough and teaches at Guilford College and Meredith College (while simultaneously working on an MBA at ECU). She earned a Master's of Music from Appalachian State, a paralegal certificate from Meredith, and a B.S. in piano from Campbell University. According to the Paynter website, McAdoo previously "worked in the legal industry as a litigation paralegal where she was frequently responsible for legal research, document drafting, employee training, office and file organization, client recruitment and retainment, implementation of firm-sponsored community events, identification of marketing opportunities, and development of marketing materials."

If you want to contribute to Erica McAdoo, click here. 

Mack Paul, running in the 18th NC Senate District

Mack Paul

District 18 under the latest redistricting maps includes northern Wake County, Franklin County, and a small section of Raleigh

Incumbent Republicans: John Alexander and Chad Barefoot, double-bunked by those same redistricting maps. Barefoot, a conservative dick (his attempt to redistrict Wake's Board of Education was thrown out by the courts as unconstitutional), already announced his retirement, so holding the seat for the Republicans is all on John Alexander, the owner of a trucking company first elected to the GA in 2014 (barely) and reelected in 2016 with 50.01% of the vote. For a Republican he expresses hesitance at best and a dangerous moderation at worst on some issues like the expansion of Medicaid under Obamacare.

Democrat Mack Paul is a Raleigh real-estate attorney and former Wake County Democratic Party chair. Paul says his campaign will focus on economic issues affecting the middle class, and he says the Republican-dominated Senate has “been focused way too much on issues that divide us.” He was a founding member of Triangle Growth Strategies and the Triangle Smart Growth Coalition, two groups that brought together homebuilders and environmentalists on growth issues. As a partner at Morningstar Law Group, he has represented big developers who were defeated in their plans by local opposition, but Paul says he does not support recent legislation backed by developers to limit local governments’ planning and zoning powers. “I feel like it’s important that our local governments have authority to implement the policies that they need because they understand the issues at the local level,” he said. I want to believe him.

If you want to contribute to Mack Paul, go to Act Blue. 

Wendy B. Sellars, running in the 80th House District

Wendy Sellars

District covers Davidson County

Incumbent Republican Sam Watford has announced that he'll move over and run for a senate seat, so technically this is now an open seat. (Republican Kevin Speight, the finance chair of the GOP's 13th U.S. Congressional District, announced last month that he will represent the Republicans on the ballot for the seat.)

Democrat Wendy Sellars is an adult probation and parole officer for the N.C. Department of Public Safety and was elected for her second, two-year term on the Thomasville City Council in November. She was previously a member of the Davidson County Board of Education. She criticizes the Republicans’ refusal to expand Medicaid and sufficiently address the opioid crisis: “For too long, Republicans in the General Assembly have failed to adequately address the issues facing our community. Our leaders should fight every day to make sure people have access to a quality education and affordable health care, including lifesaving answers to the opioid and mental health crises. It’s time we fight for those who are in need and stop catering to those at the top .… Everyone deserves a representative who will be their constituents’ voice and speak up for the voiceless among us – I intend to be that representative for Davidson County.”

If you want to contribute to Wendy Sellars, here's the link.