The buzz about the newest Gallup Poll showing Bush up by 8 percentage points is most instructional. The demographic breakdown of the sample that Gallup used to reach their conclusions -- not a huge secret but also not generally known to the public -- is discussed here and breaks down like this: George W. Bush will win by 8 percentage points, assuming that the people who go to the polls are 85% white, 41% conservative, 19% liberal, and 33% make over $75,000 per year. (Frankly, we're surprised that an electorate made up of those demographic factors would elect Bush by ONLY 8 percentage points!)
Among all the bizarre polls in a season that has produced a plethora of them, the Gallup, under new born-again ownership, requires a lot of salt.
If it's "Gallup," how can it be right?
Tuesday, October 19, 2004
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