Analyzing the (Darn) Polls

Guy Molyneux, pollster and analyst of polls, has a fascinating discussion that was obviously written before last Thursday's presidential debate, wherein he finds plenty of evidence that Kerry is winning and Bush, losing, even (as we say) before the turn-around this past weekend.

For Molyneux, the key is not in "the spread," the difference in percentages declaring for Bush and for Kerry, but in the incumbent's percentage of the vote, which for Bush has been consistently below 50 percent. An incumbent scoring at 49 percent or less among registered voters is in deep doo-doo (as W's father used to say).

Wrote Molyneux, "...the percentage of the vote an incumbent president receives in surveys is an extraordinarily accurate predictor of the percentage he will receive on election day -- even though the survey results also include a pool of undecided voters. Hence the 50-percent rule: An incumbent who fails to poll above 50 percent is in grave jeopardy of losing his job."

Molyneux cites very compelling comparisons of how incumbents Bill Clinton, George Bush Sr., Ronald Reagan, and Jimmy Carter were polling shortly before their individual reelection contests. In every case, each of those incumbents finished the election within 2 percentage points of where the polls said they stood with voters.

"This happens because elections are fundamentally a referendum on the incumbent. The first step in voters' decision-making process is to answer the question 'does he deserve re-election?' Undecided voters have basically answered that question in the negative, and their undecided status reflects the fact that they don't know enough about the challenger (yet) to feel comfortable stating a public preference."

Most "undecided" voters, Molyneux claims, end up breaking for the challenger. Not all, but most, by a wide margin.

Molyneux's key paragraph: "Think of it this way: The percentage that Bush receives in polls represents his ceiling of support; he may get a little less, but won't get more. In contrast, Kerry's percentage represents his floor, and he will almost certainly do better on election day. Assuming that Ralph Nader and other minor candidates will receive about 2 percent -- which is what current surveys suggest -- 49 percent becomes the critical line of demarcation in this election. If Bush can get to 50 percent or above in the polls, he should be able to win. At 49 percent -- where he is today [before the 1st debate] -- we're probably looking at another photo finish, lots of recounts, and narrow state-by-state victories dictating the Electoral College outcome. And below 49 percent, Bush is almost certain to lose."

And my absolute favorite paragraph: "You may also have heard that Bush is surging ahead in the crucial 'battleground states' that will determine the Electoral College outcome. However, polls in these states actually reveal an even more precarious position for the president. Taken together, Bush receives a bit less support in these critical states than in the nation overall. In the latest NBC/WSJ poll, Bush receives 49 percent support nationally but only 47 percent in the battleground states, a typical finding."

Now maybe that'll help you sleep better.