On Ground Hog's Day, I counted 46 North Carolina House seats for which the Republicans had recruited no announced candidate. Today, I counted 48. Is it possible they're actually going backward in candidate recruitment, or is my counting just that out of whack?
Meanwhile, the Democrats are still leading in the candidate race. There are now 40 House seats with no announced Democratic candidate, down from 42 when I counted on Ground Hog's Day.
Woot!
Keep it up, Democrats!
(On a more sober note, Democratic recruitment in the NC Senate may not be so energetic, but I still haven't had time to concentrate on that Phil Berger pit of despair.)
Thursday, February 08, 2018
The Big Damage Done in House District 36
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| The ever smug Nelson Dollar |
A marquee Democratic primary between Matt Calabria and Jen Ferrell in House District 36, for the privilege for taking on Republican big-wig Nelson Dollar -- that primary is scuttled, because both Calabria and Ferrell are no longer in District 36, and for the moment at least, big-wig Republican Nelson Dollar is without an announced Democratic opponent. (Hattip: Jonathan Kappler's excellent 2018 Candidate Tracker.) District 36 was considered a prime pick-up opportunity under the special master's redrawn district lines.
Nelson Dollar, in his 7th term in the House, is senior chair of the House Appropriations Committee meaning he's the chief budget writer (boo!) for the extremist Republican redirection of a once-progressive North Carolina.
More New Democratic Talent Who Will Challenge the Status Quo in 2018
Susan Maxon, running in the NC House District 109
District 109 takes in part of Gaston County.
Republican incumbent: Dana Bumgardner is a retired CEO of a commercial printing company. He's a vanilla conservative, first elected to the chamber in 2012, was unchallenged in 2014, and has never failed to get at least 60% of the vote. Naturally, Bumgardner voted against the repeal of HB2 (the notorious "bathroom bill"), and he got sarcastic with one North Carolina voter when she emailed him asking him to repeal the law. "Or what? Are you gonna huff and puff and blow the house down?” Bumgardner emailed back. He then later bragged to the Gaston Gazette that the voter "was just a little snowflake." Meeee-ow!
Democrat Susan Maxon was a military kid which brought her to eastern North Carolina, where she graduated from high school. She was a first-generation college student at East Carolina University, graduating as a biology major. She went on to graduate work in biology and joined the US Department of Agriculture for a career in seed testing. In her official capacity, she worked with seed industry and state departments of agriculture to promote truthful labeling of agricultural and vegetable seeds, provided training to seed analysts working for industry and government, represented US seed interests at the national and international level, and became the laboratory supervisor and deputy director for ten years at the Gastonia USDA facility. She retired in 2013 and ran once before for this house seat in 2016, garnering slightly less than 39% of the vote against Bumgardner. She mentions her primary concerns for North Carolina government: "The General Assembly has been neglecting our public school system, which not too long ago had been widely viewed as the best in the region. Our legislators in Raleigh have enacted tax policies that disproportionately burden working families and small businesses. And they continue to ignore the need of the most vulnerable in our state for available healthcare."
Albeiro Florez, running in the NC House District 45
District 45, in Cumberland County, wraps around the urban core of Fayetteville, keeping those more Democratic voters safely away from the Republican incumbent.
Republican incumbent: John Szoka worked in the mortgage lending industry after a career in the US Army. He retired as a lieutenant colonel. The last time he even had a Democratic opponent in a general election was in 2012, when he was first elected to the General Assembly. He describes himself as an environmentalist and an advocate for renewable energy, though it's futile finding how
those views have influenced the Republican leadership. Plus in the same interview, he denied that global climate change is linked to human activity (particularly the burning of fossil fuels). So you figure it out: Col. Szoka isn't about to buck the generals.
Democrat Albeiro Florez is the Chief Financial and Operating Officer for Walker Florez Consulting Group. He previously served in the U.S. Army, and he currently is President of Latinos United for Progress and a Board Member of the Armed Forces YMCA. Last October, Governor Roy Cooper named him to the Governor’s Advisory Council on Hispanic/Latino Affairs. In Fayetteville he has been honored as "Young Professional of the Year" and the Fayetteville Observer featured him as one of its "40 Under 40" movers and shakers. Florez organized the first-ever Latinos United for Progress Fayetteville mayoral candidate forum last fall, forcing immigrant issues into the public debate. The Hispanic population in Cumberland County has grown, and Florez is prominent.
Leslie Cohen, running in the NC House District 20
District 20 takes in some of Wilmington and then goes up-country on both sides of I-40 to Castle Hayne and beyond, stretching to the ocean from Ogden to Bayshore.
Republican incumbent: Holly Grange was first elected to the seat in 2016 after winning a fairly nasty Republican primary in March with another Republican woman who accused her of having a cozy relationship with Sidney Blumenthal (of Hillary Clinton fame). In August, when the Republican occupying the seat went ahead and resigned from it, Grange was appointed to fill out his term. Grange faced no Democratic opposition that fall and will have her first real reelection contest this year. She was an engineer officer in the Army Corp of Engineers, serving in the 20th Engineer Brigade at Fort Bragg and on the 18th Airborne Corps staff. She married a general (who was the one who had some brief connection to Sidney Blumenthal). In an interview, Grange admitted that climate change is happening and that it is impacting sea-level rise, an issue of considerable concern for her district. Her viewpoint on that will get little credit within her Republican caucus, which has decreed that sea-level rise must not be talked about.
Democrat Leslie Cohen moved to Wilmington from Atlanta in 2013 after their two children left the nest. She became involved in local issues here when the passage of HB2 threatened the rights of their adult children. Her activism quickly spread into other issues as she became aware of the the struggles of others in her community. She had earned a degree from Georgia State University, and fresh out of college, she started a printing business with her future husband Jeff. The printing business morphed into a successful commercial graphics company. The couple designed collateral advertising for Fortune 500 companies for twelve years before transitioning their business to fine art in 2002. Leslie’s paintings are in collections across the globe. The pollution of the Cape Fear River is a big issue for her as is restoring the incentives that built the film industry in North Carolina (the destruction of which by the Republican General Assembly drove the industry to other states like Georgia). She opposes off-shore drilling (Trump's wet dream), and she is especially disturbed at how public education has suffered under Republican rule.
District 109 takes in part of Gaston County.
Republican incumbent: Dana Bumgardner is a retired CEO of a commercial printing company. He's a vanilla conservative, first elected to the chamber in 2012, was unchallenged in 2014, and has never failed to get at least 60% of the vote. Naturally, Bumgardner voted against the repeal of HB2 (the notorious "bathroom bill"), and he got sarcastic with one North Carolina voter when she emailed him asking him to repeal the law. "Or what? Are you gonna huff and puff and blow the house down?” Bumgardner emailed back. He then later bragged to the Gaston Gazette that the voter "was just a little snowflake." Meeee-ow!
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| Susan Maxon |
Albeiro Florez, running in the NC House District 45
District 45, in Cumberland County, wraps around the urban core of Fayetteville, keeping those more Democratic voters safely away from the Republican incumbent.
Republican incumbent: John Szoka worked in the mortgage lending industry after a career in the US Army. He retired as a lieutenant colonel. The last time he even had a Democratic opponent in a general election was in 2012, when he was first elected to the General Assembly. He describes himself as an environmentalist and an advocate for renewable energy, though it's futile finding how
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| Albeiro Florez |
Democrat Albeiro Florez is the Chief Financial and Operating Officer for Walker Florez Consulting Group. He previously served in the U.S. Army, and he currently is President of Latinos United for Progress and a Board Member of the Armed Forces YMCA. Last October, Governor Roy Cooper named him to the Governor’s Advisory Council on Hispanic/Latino Affairs. In Fayetteville he has been honored as "Young Professional of the Year" and the Fayetteville Observer featured him as one of its "40 Under 40" movers and shakers. Florez organized the first-ever Latinos United for Progress Fayetteville mayoral candidate forum last fall, forcing immigrant issues into the public debate. The Hispanic population in Cumberland County has grown, and Florez is prominent.
Leslie Cohen, running in the NC House District 20
District 20 takes in some of Wilmington and then goes up-country on both sides of I-40 to Castle Hayne and beyond, stretching to the ocean from Ogden to Bayshore.
Republican incumbent: Holly Grange was first elected to the seat in 2016 after winning a fairly nasty Republican primary in March with another Republican woman who accused her of having a cozy relationship with Sidney Blumenthal (of Hillary Clinton fame). In August, when the Republican occupying the seat went ahead and resigned from it, Grange was appointed to fill out his term. Grange faced no Democratic opposition that fall and will have her first real reelection contest this year. She was an engineer officer in the Army Corp of Engineers, serving in the 20th Engineer Brigade at Fort Bragg and on the 18th Airborne Corps staff. She married a general (who was the one who had some brief connection to Sidney Blumenthal). In an interview, Grange admitted that climate change is happening and that it is impacting sea-level rise, an issue of considerable concern for her district. Her viewpoint on that will get little credit within her Republican caucus, which has decreed that sea-level rise must not be talked about.
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| Leslie Cohen |
Wednesday, February 07, 2018
"It's Unclear" -- Impact of Supreme Court's Action Yesterday on North Carolina GA Races
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| Those Boys--worms in the cabbage |
FUBAR.
I've been trying to keep up with new Democratic candidates announcing across the state, and I've tried to identify where their districts are, but that's becoming increasingly difficult, and I never trust the map that Google coughs up.
Phil Berger and His Boys, and Tim Moore and His Boys, have done one hell of a job at rolling North Carolina up into a giant tar ball of attempted election meddling and power-grabbing. They'll blame Democrats for the mess: "They should never have challenged our imperial will in court!" We know who's to blame for the shitstorm, and I think the voters of North Carolina will not reward them for their maliciousness.
#2018BlueWave -- Missouri Democrats Flip Another District Last Night
A young, very young (27) Democrat took an exurban St. Louis district last night in a special election for a seat in the Missouri House of Reps, beating a 59-year-old Republican by three percentage points in a district that Trump won by 28 points.
That's a 31-point swing toward Democrats since 2016 (or toward 27-year-old Anheuser-Busch beer distributors).
Among those celebrating, Senator Claire McCaskill might have been dancing with a lampshade on her head. Not saying she was. Just that she might have been. McCaskill has been considered (especially by Republicans) the most vulnerable Democratic senator. She's been blessed (once again) by a male Republican opponent who's already stepped on his weenie, and this special election in the Missouri 97th House District must surely cheer up her prospects for reelection.
That's a 31-point swing toward Democrats since 2016 (or toward 27-year-old Anheuser-Busch beer distributors).
Among those celebrating, Senator Claire McCaskill might have been dancing with a lampshade on her head. Not saying she was. Just that she might have been. McCaskill has been considered (especially by Republicans) the most vulnerable Democratic senator. She's been blessed (once again) by a male Republican opponent who's already stepped on his weenie, and this special election in the Missouri 97th House District must surely cheer up her prospects for reelection.
Labels:
2018 Blue Wave,
Claire McCaskill
Tuesday, February 06, 2018
Another Two Democrats Running for the NC House
Kandie Smith, running for NC House District 8
Sam Edney, running for the NC House District 113
District 8 = Pitt County, which means the city of Greenville and the campus of East Carolina State University. The General Assembly was forced to redraw the district which had contained parts of both Pitt and Wilson counties but which cut out the urban core of those two counties.
Open seat. Republican incumbent Susan Martin announced last November that she was giving up the seat, and so far no Republican has stepped forward to take up the challenge.
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| Kandie Smith |
Democrat Kandie Smith is an 8-year veteran Greenville city councilwoman, first elected in 2007. Last July, Smith — who was also serving as the city’s mayor pro tem — became the first black female mayor of Greenville after the city council voted unanimously to appoint her to fill the mayor’s seat left vacant by Allen Thomas. Smith also is the North Carolina assistant regional representative for the National Black Caucus of Elected Officials, a board member of the Pitt County Re-entry Council, and was the former president of the Greenville Alumnae Chapter of Delta Sigma Theta Sorority. She said, “During my time as mayor I had the opportunity to see things differently and had a lot more contact with our representatives in Raleigh. It made me realize how much more I can do in the General Assembly. I have always fought for the citizens of Greenville. I want to continue that fight for all of eastern North Carolina.” One of her top priorities will be the economic development of the region. “Eastern North Carolina gets overlooked a lot,” she said. “We are often an afterthought … but we have so much to offer, and I want to go to Raleigh and make sure people know that.” She ran in the Democratic primary in NC House District 24 in 2016 and lost to the incumbent, Jean Farmer-Butterfield.
Sam Edney, running for the NC House District 113
District 113 is a mountain district, taking in Brevard, Hendersonville, and Saluda.
Incumbent Republican: Cody Henson is in his first term in the NC House. He's a baby -- 26 years old -- and probably the youngest member of the House. He is married and the father of a young son. He currently works at OceanX, an Arden-based company that helps businesses create subscription programs. He thought HB2 was perfectly fine, and he told the Carolina Public Press: "I am a Christian conservative." We believe him.
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| Sam Edney |
Democrat Sam Edney has been actively campaigning for this seat since last summer. After graduating from Asheville-Buncombe Technical Community College in 1970, Edney worked as an industrial engineer for 18 years, the last 12 with Ecusta Paper in Brevard. In 1988, he purchased Pisgah Pest Control, a company that today has three branches and 24 employees. He served on the Transylvania County Board of Education. Currently, he is Vice Chair of the SAFE Board of Directors. Economic development in the mountains is a key issue for him: “It’s time to respond to the 15-25 percent decline in well-paying jobs in the three counties I will serve. The way to do that is to invest in public education and economic development. I believe everyone in our community should have a chance to succeed.”
Democrat Kathy Manning, Making Waves in the 13th CD
A few days ago, Jonathan Kappler tweeted about what's been happening in the 13th Congressional District of North Carolina:
Jonathan Kappler
The 13th Congressional District has had a checkered past. First created in 2003, the seat was Democrat-friendly and occupied by Congressman Brad Miller until 2012. With reapportionment after 2010 and with Republicans in control of the General Assembly, the 13th was redrawn to get rid of Miller, and it worked. He decided not to run again in 2012. Republican George Holding did and won
the seat and held it through the election of 2016, when court-ordered redistricting again changed the district's contours. It was won in 2016 by Ted Budd with 56% of the vote. We assume, after all the court action of recent months, that Budd's district remains basically the same one he won in 2016: It includes parts of Greensboro as well as High Point and Statesville. His district offices are in Advance (his home town) and Mooresville.
Read more here: http://www.newsobserver.com/news/politics-government/article130320144.html#storylink=
First-term congressmen of either party usually attract hungry predators looking to pick off the young, and the DCCC (Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee) had targeted Budd even before he got the first splinter from his seat. Budd is 46. He was born in Winston-Salem but mainly grew up on a farm in Davie County. According to Taft Wireback, "he hails from a wealthy family that built its fortune in the janitorial and landscaping business." He attended and graduated from AppState. He owns a gun store and a shooting range and likes to pose with big hardware. As soon as he got to Capitol Hill, he joined the Freedom Caucus, and his votes have reflected those extreme conservative positions. He was an avid supporter of ending Obamacare, and he's a proponent of home-schooling.
Jonathan Kappler
Rep Ted Budd (R-#NC13) raised $183k in Q4, has $300k on hand. Kathy Manning (D) raised $564k, has $522k on hand. On paper, while GOP-leaning, this district is the most competitive of NC's 13 districts. Also keep in mind Rep Budd is serving in his 1st term. #NCPOL
The 13th Congressional District has had a checkered past. First created in 2003, the seat was Democrat-friendly and occupied by Congressman Brad Miller until 2012. With reapportionment after 2010 and with Republicans in control of the General Assembly, the 13th was redrawn to get rid of Miller, and it worked. He decided not to run again in 2012. Republican George Holding did and won
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| Ted Budd campaign photo |
Read more here: http://www.newsobserver.com/news/politics-government/article130320144.html#storylink=
Democrat Kathy Manning is most frequently described as a "philanthropist." She was the chief fundraiser for the $78 million Steven Tanger Center for the Performing Arts that was dedicated in
April 2017 in Greensboro. She was the first woman to chair the board of the Jewish Federations of North America. “I’m a business-oriented moderate who believes we need to do whatever we can to provide affordable health care and the good education that will get people prepared for the jobs of the future,” said Manning, 60, who worked for years as an immigration lawyer but no longer is in practice.
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Manning has criticized Budd for his support of the newly enacted Republican tax bill because of provisions that "she said would help the wealthy and big corporations, but hurt the average person in such ways as denying teachers the ability to deduct the cost of school supplies they buy for the classroom. She also criticized his support for letting banks charge retailers higher 'swipe' fees when customers use credit or debit cards."
Manning is married to Greensboro businessman Randall Kaplan, who owns Elm Street Center downtown and is planning to build a major hotel on the site. The couple has three grown children.
Budd has been quick to call her "Nancy Pelosi’s hand-picked candidate" and a "far-left" woman (gasp!) pushing a "hard-core liberal agenda." Blah blah blah. With a campaign like that, Budd may find that energizing the base in 2018 is a harder lift, especially with an assault rifle in your hand.
Labels:
2018 Blue Wave,
Kathy Manning,
redistricting,
Ted Budd
Monday, February 05, 2018
Justice Alito Refuses To Block Court-Ordered Redistricting in Pennsylvania
Are we shocked? Yes, we're shocked.
Justice Samuel A. Alito Jr., who hears emergency requests from Pennsylvania, turned down the petition from Pennsylvania Republicans to delay redrawing congressional lines, meaning the 2018 elections in the state will probably be held in districts far more favorable to Democrats. The Pennsylvania Supreme Court last month ruled that the state’s Republican legislative leaders had violated the state Constitution by unfairly favoring the GOP. According to Robert Barnes, the Supreme Court traditionally does not interfere in cases involving state constitutions.
Justice Samuel A. Alito Jr., who hears emergency requests from Pennsylvania, turned down the petition from Pennsylvania Republicans to delay redrawing congressional lines, meaning the 2018 elections in the state will probably be held in districts far more favorable to Democrats. The Pennsylvania Supreme Court last month ruled that the state’s Republican legislative leaders had violated the state Constitution by unfairly favoring the GOP. According to Robert Barnes, the Supreme Court traditionally does not interfere in cases involving state constitutions.
Previously, a court had ruled North Carolina's gerrymander of General Assembly seats an illegal redistricting for partisan advantage according to the US Constitution, and the US Supreme Court stopped the implementation of that order.
Lesson learned: We need to sue in state court to end partisan gerrymandering.
Ashe County Sheriff Resigns
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| Terry Buchanan |
If you're behind on this drama in Ashe, you can catch up here.
Democrat Bucky Absher will be filing to run for sheriff in Ashe next Monday at 1 p.m.
Labels:
Ashe County,
Bucky Absher,
Stacy C. Eggers IV,
Terry Buchanan
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