We Need To Leave Mark Robinson Alone Until March 6th

 

Y'all, we need to lay off attacking Mark Robinson. If he makes it through the March 5th Republican primary for governor, he'll offer Democrats their best shot of winning that race. He's a parade float, full of hot air just begging for a puncture, and ... WHAT DID I JUST SAY ABOUT NOT ATTACKING MARK ROBINSON?!?!

Salisbury lawyer Bill Graham, the major threat to Robinson on the Republican side, entered the primary race in October and two weeks later polled at 5%, treated by the press as a number worth noticing, considering that another Republican in the race, Treasurer Dale Folwell, has been a candidate for many months and can't crack 3%. Presumably, Graham shot into (distant) contention because he gave the Republican white base what it most craves, visions of cruelty and force. Graham's very first TV ad, launched immediately after his announcement, played on Republican fantasy fears of urban "coloreds" with clips of gunfights in the streets, a smash-and-grab burglary, a graphic clip of a convenience store shooting. Then cut to Bill Graham who promises, “As governor, I’ll put them in jail or put them in the ground.” 

Yee-haw! The unchained melody! (But that's not policy. It's posturing. A 12-year-old could see through it. Graham's chief campaign advisors are establishment Republican operatives, prone to talk the talk -- you betcha! -- but ultimately wise enough not to walk the talk. Trump, of course, was never an establishment Republican, so we can expect that we'll get the worst of what his talk is all about.)

Graham has on staff some of the brightest lights from the Thom Tillis constellation, principally Paul Shumaker as chief strategist. Shumaker has speculated out loud that Robinson's "negatives" mean he can't win the governor race, but Shumaker simply had to go dark and violent in that first TV ad just to get the attention of Republican voters who need to have their fears and prejudices confirmed constantly and directly. I'm waiting to see how Shumaker will also go negative on The Parade Float. Will he prick that thin skin and let the air out? It's possible. But so long as Trump continues to be the runaway favorite in the presidential primary in North Carolina, Mark Robinson as a novel Black fellow-traveler for Trump's planned takeover will probably benefit.

But we're watching Graham. Don't know what his ground game looks like -- if there is a ground game -- but so far he seems dedicated to pumping big money into TV ads that promote fear above everything else. The last I've seen features Graham declaring that he'll stop "Chinese infiltration" of North Carolina, language meant to send a shudder (and which echoes, just incidentally, trumpist contempt for foreigners. Hell! Shumaker's whole media pitch for Graham goes straight for the trumpist trope of "carnage" in America ).

Paul Shumaker has said in an interview that the Graham campaign will be staying completely away from abortion. The official line has become, "We're very satisfied with the heroic work of the General Assembly in grinding down abortion rights to the first 12 weeks." (Robinson, meanwhile, has said he'd ban it outright and tee-totally, or at the very least he'd settle for a 6-week "heartbeat" ban.) 

Shumaker has promised that he'll be taking a short break from all the fear and loathing contained in those first two ads (ad No.1 can be seen here). Graham's next will be on reducing taxes (lol! How predictable and how boring!). But I'm waiting for the contrast Shumaker's going to draw between Bill Graham and Mark Robinson. Could it be on abortion? I sure as hell hope not, just to preserve that soft Robinson underside for the eventual darts of the Democratic candidate.

The NCGOP's Negative Perplex

 

Paul Shumaker. 
Photo Al Drago for CQ/Rollcall

Last Thursday, Brant Clifton boldly published what was probably a confidential memo from Capitol Communications' President Paul Shumaker, the current and reigning Republican political consultant who put Thom Tillis in the Senate and kept him there -- an official memorandum to "Interested Parties" analyzing new polling and coming to the conclusion that Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson's negatives will be a loser on the ticket for governor, and that Robinson and Trump's negatives together would be even worse. (Okay, he didn't say that last part out loud, but that conclusion is inescapable based on his numbers.)

This is the link to the complete Shumaker memo. I'm not going to reprint the full text here, though I'm tempted to, because it's long, choked with very interesting polling (Shumaker is an arithmetic guy, which explains why he wins so much), and probably wasn't written for general distribution. But I recommend you read it if you're a politico.

The curious thing is that hyper-conservative Brant Clifton has denigrated Mark Robinson, or pointed out his weaknesses and flaws, several times now in his Daily Haymaker blog. That corner of the hard-Right seems to be rallying to Dale Folwell for governor. But in a 3-way race, Robinson still wins.

Here's Paul Shumaker's page on the Capitol Communications website, if you want to know the full scope of his success and influence.

Rollcall 2016 article, "Meet the 'Data Guy' Behind North Carolina Republicans"