We Need To Leave Mark Robinson Alone Until March 6th

 

Y'all, we need to lay off attacking Mark Robinson. If he makes it through the March 5th Republican primary for governor, he'll offer Democrats their best shot of winning that race. He's a parade float, full of hot air just begging for a puncture, and ... WHAT DID I JUST SAY ABOUT NOT ATTACKING MARK ROBINSON?!?!

Salisbury lawyer Bill Graham, the major threat to Robinson on the Republican side, entered the primary race in October and two weeks later polled at 5%, treated by the press as a number worth noticing, considering that another Republican in the race, Treasurer Dale Folwell, has been a candidate for many months and can't crack 3%. Presumably, Graham shot into (distant) contention because he gave the Republican white base what it most craves, visions of cruelty and force. Graham's very first TV ad, launched immediately after his announcement, played on Republican fantasy fears of urban "coloreds" with clips of gunfights in the streets, a smash-and-grab burglary, a graphic clip of a convenience store shooting. Then cut to Bill Graham who promises, “As governor, I’ll put them in jail or put them in the ground.” 

Yee-haw! The unchained melody! (But that's not policy. It's posturing. A 12-year-old could see through it. Graham's chief campaign advisors are establishment Republican operatives, prone to talk the talk -- you betcha! -- but ultimately wise enough not to walk the talk. Trump, of course, was never an establishment Republican, so we can expect that we'll get the worst of what his talk is all about.)

Graham has on staff some of the brightest lights from the Thom Tillis constellation, principally Paul Shumaker as chief strategist. Shumaker has speculated out loud that Robinson's "negatives" mean he can't win the governor race, but Shumaker simply had to go dark and violent in that first TV ad just to get the attention of Republican voters who need to have their fears and prejudices confirmed constantly and directly. I'm waiting to see how Shumaker will also go negative on The Parade Float. Will he prick that thin skin and let the air out? It's possible. But so long as Trump continues to be the runaway favorite in the presidential primary in North Carolina, Mark Robinson as a novel Black fellow-traveler for Trump's planned takeover will probably benefit.

But we're watching Graham. Don't know what his ground game looks like -- if there is a ground game -- but so far he seems dedicated to pumping big money into TV ads that promote fear above everything else. The last I've seen features Graham declaring that he'll stop "Chinese infiltration" of North Carolina, language meant to send a shudder (and which echoes, just incidentally, trumpist contempt for foreigners. Hell! Shumaker's whole media pitch for Graham goes straight for the trumpist trope of "carnage" in America ).

Paul Shumaker has said in an interview that the Graham campaign will be staying completely away from abortion. The official line has become, "We're very satisfied with the heroic work of the General Assembly in grinding down abortion rights to the first 12 weeks." (Robinson, meanwhile, has said he'd ban it outright and tee-totally, or at the very least he'd settle for a 6-week "heartbeat" ban.) 

Shumaker has promised that he'll be taking a short break from all the fear and loathing contained in those first two ads (ad No.1 can be seen here). Graham's next will be on reducing taxes (lol! How predictable and how boring!). But I'm waiting for the contrast Shumaker's going to draw between Bill Graham and Mark Robinson. Could it be on abortion? I sure as hell hope not, just to preserve that soft Robinson underside for the eventual darts of the Democratic candidate.

Checking In on Mark Robinson's Main Republican Primary Challenger

 

Bill Graham, the Salisbury personal injury lawyer who once upon a time ran for governor in the Republican primary with Pat McCrory (polled at 9% to McCrory's 46%), got recruited this year by some establishment Republicans to challenge blowfish Mark Robinson in next March's Republican primary for governor. Graham is supposed to be the great white hope for more mainstream NC conservatives who fear Mark Robinson's chances of crashing on the rocks of his own extremism. Graham announced his candidacy less than a month ago, so it's an obligation to check in on him from time to time to see how he's doing. 

A Meredith College poll of some 755 voters -- 44% of whom said they would vote a Republican ballot next March -- published these preferences for governor yesterday:

Mark Robinson 41%

Bill Graham 5%

Dale Folwell 3%

A whopping 42% were "undecided." Graham has apparently targeted those undecideds with a scare tactic TV ad, "VIOLENCE IN OUR STREETS!" which one observer justifiably called "racist as fuck." In the ad, Graham says about "violent criminals" that he'll "put them in jail or in the ground." (Bet he was very tickled by that line.) But it's pure trumpist tough-guy posturing and smacks of white supremacy, which no doubt will be reassuring to your country club and truck cab Republicans who make up that 42% undecided. Mean and cruel at heart are apparently requirements in successful Republican primary candidates.

The Power of Bill Graham's Candidacy for Governor

 

Mark Walker, suddenly running
for Congress

I wrote on October 18 "Fear of Mark Robinson Spawns a New Competitor" about Salisbury lawyer Bill Graham jumping into the Republican primary for governor. I suggested that he seemed to have some powerful king-makers pushing his candidacy, so it comes as no surprise that Graham has already scrambled the field. Just today comes news that former Congressman and until today candidate for governor Mark Walker is dropping out of that race to run again for his old 6th District congressional seat. I think Bill Graham probably caused him to reevaluate his options.

Hannah Schoenbaum, for the AP:

RALEIGH, N.C. (AP) — Just after the North Carolina General Assembly gave final approval Wednesday to a new congressional map favoring Republicans, a former congressman announced he is dropping out of the Republican primary for governor to try to win back his seat in the U.S. House.

Ex-U.S. Rep. Mark Walker, a former Baptist pastor from Greensboro, launched a bid Wednesday to reclaim the district he had represented on Capitol Hill for six years. He held the seat until a previous redistricting cycle opened the door for Democratic Rep. Kathy Manning to take office.

“I didn’t really leave voluntarily,” Walker said in an interview with The Associated Press. “Now that the General Assembly has restored the 6th District to how it’s historically been represented, which is conservative Republican, it felt like this was the right time to reengage with everything going on in the country.”

 

Fear of Mark Robinson Spawns a New Competitor

 

In 2008 -- the last year that North Carolina Democrats swept governor, US senator, and president -- a Salisbury lawyer named Bill Graham ran a very distant 3rd (with only 9% of the vote) in the crowded Republican primary for governor. Pat McCrory won that primary with 46% of the vote but went on to lose the fall election to Bev Perdue (of clouded memory). Bill Graham went back to lawyering in Salisbury and made a lot of money. 

Graham announced his candidacy today for governor. He said that he's donating $5 million of his personal fortune to his campaign and expects to be running TV spots before the first of November. David M. Drucker, a Vanity Fair contributor who just published his 1st book, In Trump's Shadow: The Battle for 2024 and the Future of the Republican Party, wrote in The Dispatch that Graham is the great white hope of North Carolina conservatives who've grown wary of Mark Robinson's talent for self-immolation. "Republican insiders in North Carolina worry Robinson has too much baggage to win a high-profile contest in a battleground state that has seen Democrats occupy the governor’s mansion for most of the last three decades," writes Drucker.

Don't be fooled. Bill Graham may not bluster like Robinson and break the furniture -- he's a smooth operator with juries in personal injury lawsuits, which is a specialty of his -- but he's ever-bit as hard-core conservative as Robinson. Graham's announcement contained this boilerplate: "We need a nominee who will have the resources, discipline, and character needed to defeat the far-left Josh Stein in November." Labeling with coded language is sooo 1990, and that slur is ridiculous to boot. Josh Stein ain't "far left." 

Graham's bio on his law firm's website paints a picture and checks many boxes:

A committed conservative, he has been a strong supporter of The Jesse Helms Center, where he currently serves as Secretary of the Board of Directors, and is an active member in the American Conservative Union. Bill served on the U.S. Agriculture Committee for Senator Jesse Helms.

The rest of Drucker's important reporting was hidden from me behind a paywall, which I didn't breach. I'm already in-heavy paying my way. 

The problem With a Very Common Name 

I dare you to Google "Bill Graham" and deal with the thicket of other Bill Grahams, including the late evangelist and a 19th-century governor. You'll find no campaign presence whatsoever for anything resembling "Bill Graham for North Carolina Governor"-- nothing but Drucker's singular piece and an AP story -- no discernible Bill Graham social media presence at all -- no website, no Twitter, no nothing.

Was this candidacy rushed, do you think? And we'd lust to know what Drucker knows, since Drucker obviously has an inside source who leaked the draft announcement to him. Drucker also alludes to a Bill Graham YouTube announcement, which I also can't find. Maybe it'll be released by the time I get this posted. Dunno. I'll want to see it.

Graham is fully capable -- given his past -- of making himself important on TV. He first earned notoriety by leading a crusade against the state gas tax in 2006 while also running for Cabarrus County Commish. I posted about Graham in December of that year:

You may have seen Graham's mug on your TV set during the past year. First he was yelling about the state's gas tax. Closer to the November election, Graham switched his yelling to illegal immigration. He was still on as of last Sunday, on local Channel 18, during "NC Spin."

Taxes and immigration. It doesn't get any more "Standard Conservative Talking Point" than that.

Losing Focuses the Mind

The big-time Raleigh Republican political consultant firm of Fetzer-Stephens says it's getting out of the politics business after November 4th. The fact that they're Liddy Dole's campaign advisors and that she's been on a straight downward track in her try for reelection might have something to do with it. If Liddy Dole is beaten by Kay Hagan, it'll be one of the larger earthquakes in N.C. history.

Fetzer-Stephens' stepping back from politics might also have something to do with another of their recent clients ... Bill Graham's campaign for governor in the Republican primary earlier this year. Graham finished third.

Fetzer-Stephens plans to move into pet adoptions, specializing in kitty-cats.