Monday, June 19, 2023

The NCGOP's Negative Perplex


Paul Shumaker. 
Photo Al Drago for CQ/Rollcall

Last Thursday, Brant Clifton boldly published what was probably a confidential memo from Capitol Communications' President Paul Shumaker, the current and reigning Republican political consultant who put Thom Tillis in the Senate and kept him there -- an official memorandum to "Interested Parties" analyzing new polling and coming to the conclusion that Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson's negatives will be a loser on the ticket for governor, and that Robinson and Trump's negatives together would be even worse. (Okay, he didn't say that last part out loud, but that conclusion is inescapable based on his numbers.)

This is the link to the complete Shumaker memo. I'm not going to reprint the full text here, though I'm tempted to, because it's long, choked with very interesting polling (Shumaker is an arithmetic guy, which explains why he wins so much), and probably wasn't written for general distribution. But I recommend you read it if you're a politico.

The curious thing is that hyper-conservative Brant Clifton has denigrated Mark Robinson, or pointed out his weaknesses and flaws, several times now in his Daily Haymaker blog. That corner of the hard-Right seems to be rallying to Dale Folwell for governor. But in a 3-way race, Robinson still wins.

Here's Paul Shumaker's page on the Capitol Communications website, if you want to know the full scope of his success and influence.

Rollcall 2016 article, "Meet the 'Data Guy' Behind North Carolina Republicans"

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