Early Voting Trends

News in this a.m.'s Raleigh N&O says that the number of North Carolina citizens who took advantage of early voting may hit 1 million. That raw number, astounding as it is, conceals something else of far greater significance: Democrats came out for early voting in far greater numbers than Republicans, a statistic that, if it holds true on Tuesday, will make North Carolina a surprise swing state Tuesday night.

We received word this a.m. from Mecklenburg County that Democrats out-polled Republicans in that county by some 6,000 voters. Mecklenburg County! We know the numbers are similarly lopsided in Durham and Wake counties. We'd love to hear from operatives in Forsyth and Guilford, and New Hanover, about what the early trends look like there.

If the Republicans are in a hole after early voting ... well, YOU do the math.

We aren't prepared to divulge the exact numbers from Watauga County's early voting -- not who anybody voted for but the total numbers of Ds, Rs, and Us that voted -- but let's just say the Republicans go into Tuesday's turn-out with a decided deficit. How anyone can look at those numbers and talk about a Republican sweep in North Carolina is smoking some wacky-baccy.

Oh, Republican operatives and mouth-pieces are talking about the untold numbers of conservative Democrats who support Bush, and no doubt there are some. But we know of plenty of Republicans who are either (a) voting Bush and then straight Democrat or (b) voting straight Democrat, period. And those same Republican pooh-bahs are also ignoring the Unaffiliated vote, which in Watauga County in early voting totaled some 22 percent of all those who voted. Let's be conservative -- oh, let's! -- and assume that only 55 percent of those Unaffiliated citizens voted Democrat (most wise men and women think 60 percent of the Unaffiliated will go to the Dems, at least). With the Republicans mustering only 38 percent of the total in early voting in Watauga County, what other outcome do you imagine? It's IN the numbers, and the numbers are SO against them!

UPDATE: I missed this tidbit in my first perusal of the N&O today:

"[Democratic Party executive director Scott] Falmlen said numbers showed early last week that Democrats accounted for 50 percent of early voters, higher than the party's share of overall registration. Republicans accounted for about 37 percent of early voters at the same point, also slightly higher than their total registration."

FURTHER UPDATE: Thanks to Hayes for these figures, which were current through last Thursday (except where otherwise noted):

Orange County early voting:
D 15,000 (62.3%)
L 79 (0.3%)
R 4,288 (17.8%)
U 4,725 (19.6%)
TOTAL 24,092
This is 48.8% of the 2000 turnout in Orange County

Durham County early voting through last Wednesday:
D 22,791 (66.1%)
L 86 (0.3%)
R 6,689 (19.4%)
U 4,890 (14.2%)
Total 30,533
This is 40.7% of the total 2000 turnout in Durham County

Guilford County early voting through Thursday:
D 29,808 (50.8%)
L 65 (0.1%)
R 22,240 (37.9%)
U 6,557 (11.1%)
Ttotal 58,670
This is 35.3% of the total 2000 turnout in Guilford County

UNPACKING THE GALLUP POLLS. Here's a wonderful deconstruction of why the Gallup polls have become such out-liers in this current political season. Thomas Lang, a 20-something reporter for the indispensible Columbia Journalism Review's "Campaign Desk," gives himself the same test that Gallup gives to the people they reach via telephone to screen for "likely voters." And though he is certain to vote this year, Lang flunks Gallup's test as a "likely voter." And exposes the Gallup's prejudice against first-time (i.e., young) voters.

ABOUT TIME SOMEBODY SAID IT: From Eric Alterman's "Altercation" blog -- "It's time to stop calling Karl Rove a genius. He is a second-rate hack. He is about to become a two-time loser. I knew Rove, Matthew Dowd, and Mark McKinnon when we were all back in Austin in the 1980s and 1990s. Dowd and McKinnon were big Democrats then, McKinnon particularly liberal. None of them were considered 'geniuses' back then. In fact, Dowd was pretty much a dependable functionary who didn't make much of a difference for Lloyd Bentsen, Ann Richards, and other Dems he worked for. McKinnon did clever work back then when he was a long-haired, guitar-playing liberal. But this 'Wolves' thing? Come on, Mark. Rove gets far more credit than he deserves. Too many pundits conflate brilliance with ruthlessness. Rove will say or do anything to destroy his opponent. But that's not genius. Having your soul removed does not increase the power of your brain. Let's face it: Rove lost a winnable election in 2000 and is about to lose another one with an incumbent during a war. I hope that after Tuesday we see the last of Rove-worship."

PARAGONS OF VIRTUE who pay off their accusers ... Profiles in Courage? Bill O'Reilly, swordsman of God? Howard Kurtz has the details here of the deal that makes O'Reilly $2 million poorer (at least?) and shuts up the woman who had the goods (so to speak) on the blow-hard (maybe they'll call the movie version "Blow-Harder" and find an ex-porn star to play O'Reilly). Last night on Fox, O'Reilly told the faithful, "Some of the media hammered me relentlessly because, as you know, I am a huge target." That O'Reilly ... can't stop bragging about his sexual endowment.

Ruy Teixeira has posted a discussion of a demographic sub-set we haven't heard much about during the Year of the Security Mom ... college-educated white men, part of Karl Rove's supposed Republican base who gave their votes to El Presidente over Gore in the 2000 election by a whopping 25-point margin. According to analysis by Stan and Anna Greenburg, that group has been defecting in great numbers to Kerry. Kerry is currently losing this group by only about 6 percentage points, a dramatic reversal.

They say a little education is a dangerous thing. Which explains why Republicans have never been all that hot for public education. Just screws up people's heads, obviously.

The President as Stand-Up Comedian

In Pontiac, Michigan, on Wednesday, El Presidente actually said, without a trace of irony, "A political candidate who jumps to conclusions without knowing the facts is not a person you want as commander-in-chief."

What about a commander-in-chief who jumps to conclusions without knowing the facts? "Sorry-assed little Iraq is a place we NEED to preemptively invade because of its WMD, its nukular program, and its close ties to Al Qaeda. Yes, God! I hear you calling!"

Jon Stewart featured the videotape of El Presidente actually saying the "jumping to conclusions" line last night on "The Daily Show." That's a joke that writes itself.

Some N.C. Early Voting Stats

Some NC stats just in ... for specific days, note:

Early voting counts at all Wake County sites, Tuesday October 26:
D 5,351 50.4%
L 18 0.1%
R 3,604 34.0%
U 1,641 15.5%
Total 10,614

Early voting counts at all Wake County sites Wednesday, October 27:
D 5,409 48.5%
L 18 0.1%
R 3918 35.2%
U 1,801 16.2%
Total 11,145

Cumulative early voting, 14 days through 10/27 for Wake County:
D 27,279 51.1%
L 49 0.1%
R 17,639 33.1%
U 8,392 15.7%
Total 53,359

The 53,359 figure is 19.8% of the total voter turnout in 2000. It represents 13.8%
of all the registered Ds having voted early compared with 11.3% of all registered voters.

Yesterday in Watauga County, over 1,000 people voted.

Let freedom ring.

One grabs hold of anything in these last five days that induces a smile, and so here comes Joel Achenbach in the WashPost with a full dissertation on a new medical condition, Pre-Election Anxiety Disorder (or PEAD) (not to be confused with Pre-Erection Anxiety Disorder, which Bill O'Reilly evidently suffers from, in spades!).

Achenbach: "No one is talking about voter apathy anymore, because the opposite is more likely the case. People care too much. They're losing sleep. They're having bad dreams about unfavorable tracking polls .... It's a bipartisan disorder, but Democrats are struggling the most, haunted by what happened last time. Republicans, though guardedly optimistic, are still supremely frustrated by the way this thing is dragging out and staying close...."

But at least an Ohio judge has killed the gambit by the Ohio GOP to challenge in advance the eligibility of some 35,000 Ohio voters, their last-ditch effort to turn back a tidal wave of Kerry support in that state. What the Ohio GOP now plans is to challenge those 35,000 -- mostly black voters in urban areas -- on election day itself by means of some 3,400 paid "monitors" whose job description includes disruption of the democratic process.

It's stuff like this crap in Ohio -- not to mention our own brand of A-number-1 crapola locally -- that'll bring on bouts of PEAD. That's if you're a Democrat. If you're a Republican, your main worry appears to be whether the Divine Being is paying close enough attention to intercede on El Presidente's behalf.

Let's All Swing Like the Swingers Swing!

The Raleigh N & O is reporting this a.m. that early voting across North Carolina has topped 400,000 people. Stunning. Unprecedented. Are those citizens grappling nature itself to get to the polls early because God told 'em that He wants El Presidente reelected? Is that what it feels like to you?

No? Me neither.

Locally, early voting in Watauga County has already passed the six thousand mark, with almost a thousand voting every day. The local total could be nudging 10,000 early votes by the time early voting closes this Saturday at 1 p.m.

In urban counties, like Wake, voters were standing in line sometimes up to two hours for their chance. Standing in line two hours to reaffirm this present government and its failed policies? We don't think so.

Get ready for surprises on November 2nd. States no one thought had a chance of swinging are going to swing. Including, just possibly, the Tarheel State.