If you want a glimpse into the mind-set of some of the "values voters" who've coronated El Presidente for another run at immortality, take a look at this profile piece in the Washington Post. A perfectly nice couple in Ohio, with three adorable kids, barely scraping by in the Bush economy, religious to a fault, who don't care about anything much beyond the horror of gay marriage ...self-described as "the working poor," folks who will continue to carry water for their masters because their masters have convinced them that they will preserve certain sacred illusions for the sake of those adorable kids.
Says the wife, "I think it's so important to have a society of moral absolutes." (Yes, we've had those societies before. Salem, Mass., in 1690 comes to mind.)
Says the husband, "It's really good to know our country had a decision to make, and there are so many people who feel this way. It's a victory for people like us."
Well, yes it is. A huge bone-crushing victory. For people like you. And El Presidente fully intends to exploit it, as he made clear in his press conference yesterday. But while we used to say with a shrug that at least ignorance didn't ever kill anyone, we're beginning to amend that assessment.
ADDENDUM: Quote of the day: "The error that progressives have consistently committed over the years is to underestimate the vitality of ignorance in America." -- Jane Smiley, in Slate.
Friday, November 05, 2004
The Swaggering of the President
The Littlest Angel's press conference yesterday -- only his 16th in four long years, the fewest press conferences by any elected president since records have been kept -- signaled a more open arrogance by the Wearer of the Halo.
"I earned capital in the campaign, political capital, and now I intend to spend it. It is my style," he said. "I'm going to spend it for what I told the people I'd spend it on, which is -- you've heard the agenda: Social Security and tax reform, moving this economy forward, education, fighting and winning the war on terror."
Translation: We're gonna begin the phase-out of Social Security and consolidate the power of the wealthy. And do some other stuff that may get a trifle messy.
No definitive word yet on herding all the gays into re-education camps, but there'll be time for those details later. (And incidentally, Mr. President, you're going to need most of Montana for those camps: just in Watauga County alone, some 11,000 big homos voted for Kerry!)
Roger Simon has the clearest reality check: "Does Bush really want change that favors conservatives or does he want to 'reach out' and 'heal' the nation? Well, I wouldn't take this healing talk too seriously. Bush was elected by conservatives who expect to be rewarded with conservative legislation, conservative judicial appointments and conservative Constitutional amendments."
Can we hope for the 45 Dems left in the Senate to hang tough on, say, Supreme Court nominees and filibuster them into the good earth? Maybe. The weak reeds of that bunch, like Breaux, are gone now, and maybe the 45 who are left will have some guts. Only takes 41 to sustain a filibuster.
"I earned capital in the campaign, political capital, and now I intend to spend it. It is my style," he said. "I'm going to spend it for what I told the people I'd spend it on, which is -- you've heard the agenda: Social Security and tax reform, moving this economy forward, education, fighting and winning the war on terror."
Translation: We're gonna begin the phase-out of Social Security and consolidate the power of the wealthy. And do some other stuff that may get a trifle messy.
No definitive word yet on herding all the gays into re-education camps, but there'll be time for those details later. (And incidentally, Mr. President, you're going to need most of Montana for those camps: just in Watauga County alone, some 11,000 big homos voted for Kerry!)
Roger Simon has the clearest reality check: "Does Bush really want change that favors conservatives or does he want to 'reach out' and 'heal' the nation? Well, I wouldn't take this healing talk too seriously. Bush was elected by conservatives who expect to be rewarded with conservative legislation, conservative judicial appointments and conservative Constitutional amendments."
Can we hope for the 45 Dems left in the Senate to hang tough on, say, Supreme Court nominees and filibuster them into the good earth? Maybe. The weak reeds of that bunch, like Breaux, are gone now, and maybe the 45 who are left will have some guts. Only takes 41 to sustain a filibuster.
Thursday, November 04, 2004
Watauga County Notes
Prior to the election, County Commission Chair James Coffey (about to be the ex-County Commissioner James Coffey) was overhead to remark that he thought the local Republicans would win all three seats on the County Commission but that if they had to lose one seat, he guessed he could work all right with Winston Kinsey but that he couldn't work at all with Jim Deal.
Mr. Coffey got at least half his wish ... he won't have to work with Jim Deal.
Apparently, Tuesday night the local radio announced that on the basis of 20 out of 20 precincts reporting that the Republicans had swept the County Commission. But ... oops ... they hadn't figured on the 10,500 votes that had been cast in "early voting," and that's where the Democrats won it. The Democratic vote was pumped this year and couldn't wait to get to the polls, so they went early. But their votes got counted late.
We don't have the numbers yet about straight-party voting, but we're betting that there were more straight-party ballots cast for Democrats than for Republicans, which would be the reverse of past history. In other words, it was not just ASU students who put in the Democrats. Their win depended on a fair number of Republicans who split their vote. We won't know for sure until those numbers become available.
In the meantime, some preliminary statistics:
Billy Ralph Winkler beat James Coffey by about 600 votes, taking the following precincts: Blowing Rock, Boone 1, Boone 2, Boone 3, Brushy Fork, and New River 1. Mr. Coffey won Bald Mountain, Beaver Dam, Blue Ridge, Cove Creek, Elk, Laurel Creek, Meat Camp, New River 2, New River 3 (by one measly vote!), Northfork, Shawneehaw, Stony Fork, Watauga, and Beech Mountain. Billy Ralph pulled it out by beating Coffey in early voting by 1,200 votes.
Winston Kinsey beat Allen Trivette in the three Boone precincts, Brushy Fork, New River 1, and New River 3. Trivette took Bald Mountain (by 11 votes), Beaver Dam, Blowing Rock (by 54 votes), Blue Ridge, Cove Creek, Elk (by 11 votes), Laurel Creek, Meat Camp, New River 2, Northfork, Shawneehaw, Stony Fork, Watauga, and Beech Mountain. Kinsey beat Trivette in early voting by 1,500 votes.
Deal beat newcomer Joe Phillips in Bald Mountain (by 9 votes), Blowing Rock, the three Boone precincts, Brushy Fork, Elk (by 2 votes), and the three New River precincts. Phillips took Beaver Dam, Blue Ridge (by 19 votes), Cove Creek, Laurel Creek, Meat Camp, Northfork, Shawneehaw, Stony Fork, Watauga, and Beech Mountain. Deal beat Phillips in early voting by 1,700 votes.
Do you see the pattern? Though Deal was the top vote-getter among Democrat County Commission candidates, Democratic strength across the board is centered in the two towns and their suburbs (though Deal took two rural precincts by slim margins). The Republican base lies in the most rural precincts.
NOTE: It's impossible to know (without a lot of extra work) the precincts of origin of the 10,500 early voters. If this data were known, some of the rural precincts that went so heavily Republican on Tuesday would perhaps not look so overwhelmingly "red." People came in for early voting from every precinct, but conventional wisdom is that the majority came from Boone and its suburbs.
Though Jim Deal was top vote-getter among Democratic commission candidates -- even polling higher than Governor Mike Easley -- no Democrat did better in Watauga than Secretary of State Elaine Marshall. Even Republicans love that woman!
Mr. Coffey got at least half his wish ... he won't have to work with Jim Deal.
Apparently, Tuesday night the local radio announced that on the basis of 20 out of 20 precincts reporting that the Republicans had swept the County Commission. But ... oops ... they hadn't figured on the 10,500 votes that had been cast in "early voting," and that's where the Democrats won it. The Democratic vote was pumped this year and couldn't wait to get to the polls, so they went early. But their votes got counted late.
We don't have the numbers yet about straight-party voting, but we're betting that there were more straight-party ballots cast for Democrats than for Republicans, which would be the reverse of past history. In other words, it was not just ASU students who put in the Democrats. Their win depended on a fair number of Republicans who split their vote. We won't know for sure until those numbers become available.
In the meantime, some preliminary statistics:
Billy Ralph Winkler beat James Coffey by about 600 votes, taking the following precincts: Blowing Rock, Boone 1, Boone 2, Boone 3, Brushy Fork, and New River 1. Mr. Coffey won Bald Mountain, Beaver Dam, Blue Ridge, Cove Creek, Elk, Laurel Creek, Meat Camp, New River 2, New River 3 (by one measly vote!), Northfork, Shawneehaw, Stony Fork, Watauga, and Beech Mountain. Billy Ralph pulled it out by beating Coffey in early voting by 1,200 votes.
Winston Kinsey beat Allen Trivette in the three Boone precincts, Brushy Fork, New River 1, and New River 3. Trivette took Bald Mountain (by 11 votes), Beaver Dam, Blowing Rock (by 54 votes), Blue Ridge, Cove Creek, Elk (by 11 votes), Laurel Creek, Meat Camp, New River 2, Northfork, Shawneehaw, Stony Fork, Watauga, and Beech Mountain. Kinsey beat Trivette in early voting by 1,500 votes.
Deal beat newcomer Joe Phillips in Bald Mountain (by 9 votes), Blowing Rock, the three Boone precincts, Brushy Fork, Elk (by 2 votes), and the three New River precincts. Phillips took Beaver Dam, Blue Ridge (by 19 votes), Cove Creek, Laurel Creek, Meat Camp, Northfork, Shawneehaw, Stony Fork, Watauga, and Beech Mountain. Deal beat Phillips in early voting by 1,700 votes.
Do you see the pattern? Though Deal was the top vote-getter among Democrat County Commission candidates, Democratic strength across the board is centered in the two towns and their suburbs (though Deal took two rural precincts by slim margins). The Republican base lies in the most rural precincts.
NOTE: It's impossible to know (without a lot of extra work) the precincts of origin of the 10,500 early voters. If this data were known, some of the rural precincts that went so heavily Republican on Tuesday would perhaps not look so overwhelmingly "red." People came in for early voting from every precinct, but conventional wisdom is that the majority came from Boone and its suburbs.
Though Jim Deal was top vote-getter among Democratic commission candidates -- even polling higher than Governor Mike Easley -- no Democrat did better in Watauga than Secretary of State Elaine Marshall. Even Republicans love that woman!
Bush Won With Queer Fear?
I promise not to start posting a bunch of jeremiads from the national press, but the one excerpted below contains information about how the network of queer-fear-whispering may have worked to Bush's advantage in this election. We certainly know that this sort of queer-baiting went on in Watauga County.
From Rick Perlstein's column in yesterday's Village Voice:
...Minister James Dobson, the radio preacher and the mover and the shaker behind the outfit called "Focus on the Family" .... has devoted his recent broadcasts to the proposition that a certain bill Senator Edward M. Kennedy wishes to pass, with the intention of providing federal penalties to thugs who beat up people for reasons of sexual orientation, is actually an opening wedge to anti-Christian pogroms. Dobson and his cohorts have been railing that is not just a step but a giant leap down the same slippery slope that found a Swedish minister named Ake Green sentenced to prison for preaching against homosexuality from his pulpit.
Here's a version of that line, from the Maryland Family Values Alliance, which claims -- and the claim is typical in evangelical circles -- that passage of Senator Kennedy's bill "would literally throw open the door to attacks against people of faith, who could be prosecuted with federal monies for expressing their views on homosexuality!"
Or Google a text entitled "The Freedoms Christians Might Lose in This Election," by Dr. John Ankerberg. It is one of a nearly limitless train of sermons that tie a vote for John Kerry, the bill from Ted Kennedy, and the fate of Ake Green into a single, smoldering, horrifying knot.
Now go to senate.gov, type in S. 966 after clicking the tab reading "Legislation and Records," and read Kennedy's bill. Read it forward, backwards, sideways, inside out, and see for yourself that it says nothing of the kind.
Think about the fact that George Bush has relied on the diffusion of lies like this in order to win his majority [Tues. night]; that he couldn't win without the widespread diffusion of such lies....
From Rick Perlstein's column in yesterday's Village Voice:
...Minister James Dobson, the radio preacher and the mover and the shaker behind the outfit called "Focus on the Family" .... has devoted his recent broadcasts to the proposition that a certain bill Senator Edward M. Kennedy wishes to pass, with the intention of providing federal penalties to thugs who beat up people for reasons of sexual orientation, is actually an opening wedge to anti-Christian pogroms. Dobson and his cohorts have been railing that is not just a step but a giant leap down the same slippery slope that found a Swedish minister named Ake Green sentenced to prison for preaching against homosexuality from his pulpit.
Here's a version of that line, from the Maryland Family Values Alliance, which claims -- and the claim is typical in evangelical circles -- that passage of Senator Kennedy's bill "would literally throw open the door to attacks against people of faith, who could be prosecuted with federal monies for expressing their views on homosexuality!"
Or Google a text entitled "The Freedoms Christians Might Lose in This Election," by Dr. John Ankerberg. It is one of a nearly limitless train of sermons that tie a vote for John Kerry, the bill from Ted Kennedy, and the fate of Ake Green into a single, smoldering, horrifying knot.
Now go to senate.gov, type in S. 966 after clicking the tab reading "Legislation and Records," and read Kennedy's bill. Read it forward, backwards, sideways, inside out, and see for yourself that it says nothing of the kind.
Think about the fact that George Bush has relied on the diffusion of lies like this in order to win his majority [Tues. night]; that he couldn't win without the widespread diffusion of such lies....
Wednesday, November 03, 2004
So, Bush Wins
By Matthew B. Robinson, PhD (Associate Professor of Criminal Justice, Appalachian State University), guest contributor:
George W. Bush has just won the most important election of my lifetime. It is even more important for the health and welfare of my daughter, who is 3 1/2 years old, and my son, who is only 8 weeks old.
Imagine that -- my daughter will have lived her first eight years under the rule of one George W. Bush. And my son will have lived his first four years under the most divisive President in recent history, as well as the most loathed at home and abroad.
But now it is time to be philosophical about it all, even four more years of looking at and listening to George W. Bush.
George W. Bush's win means we will likely:
Be in Iraq for 5-10 years and lose as many as 5,000-10,000 military personnel -- sons, fathers, brothers, daughters, mothers, and sisters who should be home safely with their families.
Start another war against a country not involved in the 9/11 attacks (can anyone say Iran? Syria?).
Continue to swell the ranks of al Qaeda, thereby creating more enemies and putting our country at greater risk.
Be attacked again by al Qaeda (the Bush team incompetently missed the largest ever attack against our country, and terrorist cells are still here plotting against us).
Continue to dismantle protections afforded by Medicare and social security.
Get two or three new Supreme Court justices in the mold of Rehnquist, Scalia, or (God forbid) Thomas.
See the rich get even richer.
See more increases in poverty, child poverty, and true unemployment (as measured by the number of people actually not working).
See even more Americans lose their health insurance (even with caps on punitive damage lawsuits).
Continue to pollute our nation's air and water and rely too heavily on foreign sources of energy.
Continue to fail to fund a proper education for our children.
Pass more laws that diminish civil liberties.
Since all of this is all right with the American people, it has to be all right with me, too. Look at it this way -- George W. Bush will finally be forced to take the responsibility and the blame for it.
After all, on whom could he blame it? Bill Clinton? Nope. Gone for years. Democratic Congress. Nope, it's Republican (even more than before!). Terrorists? Probably, but Americans won't fall for it this time (will they?).
People will finally ask, "If he can't even keep us safe from terrorism, what can he do? If he can't even achieve his primary goal of protecting America, what can he do?"
Basically, I have found a way to be comfortable with tens of thousands of more poor, uneducated, uninsured, polluted, sick, threatened, hated, suffering, monitored, and even dead Americans.
The next four years of George W. Bush will assure a pendulum shift to the left that will be unlike any other pendulum shift we have seen in our lives. And Democrats will benefit from this shift for decades to come.
And then we Democrats can get back to fixing the problems thrust upon us by eight years of the Bush Administration.
Try to be philosophical about it.
Oh, and one more thing ...
Ugh. I feel sick.
George W. Bush has just won the most important election of my lifetime. It is even more important for the health and welfare of my daughter, who is 3 1/2 years old, and my son, who is only 8 weeks old.
Imagine that -- my daughter will have lived her first eight years under the rule of one George W. Bush. And my son will have lived his first four years under the most divisive President in recent history, as well as the most loathed at home and abroad.
But now it is time to be philosophical about it all, even four more years of looking at and listening to George W. Bush.
George W. Bush's win means we will likely:
Be in Iraq for 5-10 years and lose as many as 5,000-10,000 military personnel -- sons, fathers, brothers, daughters, mothers, and sisters who should be home safely with their families.
Start another war against a country not involved in the 9/11 attacks (can anyone say Iran? Syria?).
Continue to swell the ranks of al Qaeda, thereby creating more enemies and putting our country at greater risk.
Be attacked again by al Qaeda (the Bush team incompetently missed the largest ever attack against our country, and terrorist cells are still here plotting against us).
Continue to dismantle protections afforded by Medicare and social security.
Get two or three new Supreme Court justices in the mold of Rehnquist, Scalia, or (God forbid) Thomas.
See the rich get even richer.
See more increases in poverty, child poverty, and true unemployment (as measured by the number of people actually not working).
See even more Americans lose their health insurance (even with caps on punitive damage lawsuits).
Continue to pollute our nation's air and water and rely too heavily on foreign sources of energy.
Continue to fail to fund a proper education for our children.
Pass more laws that diminish civil liberties.
Since all of this is all right with the American people, it has to be all right with me, too. Look at it this way -- George W. Bush will finally be forced to take the responsibility and the blame for it.
After all, on whom could he blame it? Bill Clinton? Nope. Gone for years. Democratic Congress. Nope, it's Republican (even more than before!). Terrorists? Probably, but Americans won't fall for it this time (will they?).
People will finally ask, "If he can't even keep us safe from terrorism, what can he do? If he can't even achieve his primary goal of protecting America, what can he do?"
Basically, I have found a way to be comfortable with tens of thousands of more poor, uneducated, uninsured, polluted, sick, threatened, hated, suffering, monitored, and even dead Americans.
The next four years of George W. Bush will assure a pendulum shift to the left that will be unlike any other pendulum shift we have seen in our lives. And Democrats will benefit from this shift for decades to come.
And then we Democrats can get back to fixing the problems thrust upon us by eight years of the Bush Administration.
Try to be philosophical about it.
Oh, and one more thing ...
Ugh. I feel sick.
Tuesday, November 02, 2004
Calloo, Callay
FLASH: Democratic candidates take all three County Commission seats in Watauga.
MATHEW GROSS IS SAYING that, according to "a source close to the Raleigh News & Observer," Bowles is trailing Burr 49 - 50 percent. Easley is way out in front of Ballantine. Posted less than 30 minutes ago. No additional news about Kerry v. Bush in N.C.
MORE LEAKED EXIT POLLS. Kos is taking numbers from Slate that shows Kerry trailing Bush in N.C. by 2 points, 49 - 51.
Oh man.
And Kos says the following is from CNN:
Ohio -- African American precincts are performing at 106% what we expected, based on historical numbers. Hispanic precincts are at 144% what we expected. Precincts that went for Gore are turning out 8% higher than those that went Bush in 2000. Democratic base precincts are performing 15% higher than GOP base precincts.
Florida -- Dem base precincts are performing 14% better than Bush base precincts. In precincts that went for Gore, they are doing 6% better than those that went for Bush. African American precincts at 109%, Hispanic precincts at 106%.
Pennsylvania -- African American precincts at 102% of expectations, Hispanics at 136% of expectations. The Gore precincts are doing 4 percent better than Bush precincts.
Michigan -- Democratic base precincts are 8% better than GOP base states. Gore precincts are 5% better than Bush.
Kos is saying that if this trend holds nationally, we're looking at making major gains in both the Senate and the House.
Man oh man.
Oh man.
And Kos says the following is from CNN:
Ohio -- African American precincts are performing at 106% what we expected, based on historical numbers. Hispanic precincts are at 144% what we expected. Precincts that went for Gore are turning out 8% higher than those that went Bush in 2000. Democratic base precincts are performing 15% higher than GOP base precincts.
Florida -- Dem base precincts are performing 14% better than Bush base precincts. In precincts that went for Gore, they are doing 6% better than those that went for Bush. African American precincts at 109%, Hispanic precincts at 106%.
Pennsylvania -- African American precincts at 102% of expectations, Hispanics at 136% of expectations. The Gore precincts are doing 4 percent better than Bush precincts.
Michigan -- Democratic base precincts are 8% better than GOP base states. Gore precincts are 5% better than Bush.
Kos is saying that if this trend holds nationally, we're looking at making major gains in both the Senate and the House.
Man oh man.
4:06 p.m. Bill Schneider on CNN divulges that early exit polls say 1 in 7 voters today did not vote in 2000. "That could be significant," Judy Woodruff volunteers, by way of reaction. So she is as dumb as the bloggers say!
4:14 p.m. Jack Welch, former C.E.O. of G.E., tells Neil Cavuto on Fox that if Bush loses, it's because he failed to adequately convey how well the economy is rebounding. That's right: The Bush Presidency -- A Failure to Communicate Adequately! I betcha the Librul Media had something to do with it!
4:16 p.m. Donald Trump to Cavuto on Fox: "Iraq has been a total catastrophe." Also, "I would like to see taxes stay nice and low under Kerry." Uh, Donald ... don't know how to break it to you ... but we're planning on taxing your butt into the ground!
4:25 p.m. This just in: Arkansas Governor Huckaby (R) on MSNBC says that "Senator Kerry is a Massachusetts liberal" -- which evidently explains why Bush's former lead of 9 points last week in Arkansas has completely evaporated. Yeah: "A Massachusetts liberal and probably a great big homo!" Ask not on whom the domino falls. It falls on thee.
4:30 p.m. Boone 3 precinct -- the other student precinct -- is reporting over 1,600 people voting so far today, a truly remarkable turn-out. Republican officials, workers, etc. are MIA at most precincts reporting in today -- no candidates shaking hands, no poll greeters cheering on Bush supporters, no poll observers trying to catch Democrats in flagrante. What's up with that? Over-confidence? Or total melt-down?
4:14 p.m. Jack Welch, former C.E.O. of G.E., tells Neil Cavuto on Fox that if Bush loses, it's because he failed to adequately convey how well the economy is rebounding. That's right: The Bush Presidency -- A Failure to Communicate Adequately! I betcha the Librul Media had something to do with it!
4:16 p.m. Donald Trump to Cavuto on Fox: "Iraq has been a total catastrophe." Also, "I would like to see taxes stay nice and low under Kerry." Uh, Donald ... don't know how to break it to you ... but we're planning on taxing your butt into the ground!
4:25 p.m. This just in: Arkansas Governor Huckaby (R) on MSNBC says that "Senator Kerry is a Massachusetts liberal" -- which evidently explains why Bush's former lead of 9 points last week in Arkansas has completely evaporated. Yeah: "A Massachusetts liberal and probably a great big homo!" Ask not on whom the domino falls. It falls on thee.
4:30 p.m. Boone 3 precinct -- the other student precinct -- is reporting over 1,600 people voting so far today, a truly remarkable turn-out. Republican officials, workers, etc. are MIA at most precincts reporting in today -- no candidates shaking hands, no poll greeters cheering on Bush supporters, no poll observers trying to catch Democrats in flagrante. What's up with that? Over-confidence? Or total melt-down?
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