Signs of Life

 

Jamie Ager, in his element

Last Saturday, the State Board of Elections (SBOE) released new voter registration stats covering the first half of 2026:

Unaffiliated up 4,136, to total of 3,113,007

Democrats up 578, to total of 2,316,541

Republicans up 379, to total of 2,327,131

[The Center Square]

Democrats now rank third in registrations in North Carolina. By a hair, only 10,500 voters behind the Republicans. Perhaps ironically or perhaps prophetically, the only party to register fewer new voters than the Democrats so far in 2026 are the Republicans. Obviously, everyone's fate is in the hands of the numero uno Unaffiliateds. And I like them odds.

That 10k Republican advantage over Democrats becomes irrelevant if pollsters are right that an "enthusiasm gap" has yawned between the two (thank you, DJT!). The most recent right track/wrong track polling I've seen from North Carolina was conducted by High Point University in March and April, questioning 800 registered voters (703 of them considered "likely voters"). More of them thought North Carolina was on the wrong track (47%) than on the right track (31–32%), with a whopping 20% "undecided" because they haven't paid attention and don't know what's been going on.

I was just reading in the Asheville Watchdog about the enthusiasm gap that's opened in the 11th Congressional District, where Democrat Jamie Ager is outraising incumbent Republican Chuck Edwards some 9-1. In the heat of Ager's rise -- on September 11, 2025, the Cook Political Report moved the 11th from "Solid Republican" to "Likely Republican"; on June 18, 2026, Cook moved the race again, this time from "Likely Republican" to "Lean Republican" -- Congressman Edwards, lightening ship, sold all his McDonald's franchises. Ager had Pete Buttigieg at a fundraiser out on his farm. One campaign has a funerary aspect; the other pulses with life.

Total registrations by party in the 11th CD (latest numbers):

Democratic 107,989

Republican 180,267

Unaffiliated 164,871

Like I said before, I like them odds.

Update on the Attempt To Suppress Voting in NC

 

The North Carolina State Board of Elections (SBOE) announced last month that it would be sending mailers to roughly 194,000 N.C. residents, directing them to update their voter registration information -- ultimate fall-out from the never-ending NC Supreme Court election involving one Jefferson Griffin and his accusations of illegitimacy against voters who were missing that information, and then the inevitable piling on of Trump's strong-arm enforcer (a.k.a. Dept. of Justice), which sued the SBOE.

Starting in 2013, NC’s voter registration form unintentionally appeared to make filling out a driver’s license number or Social Security number optional. Many registered in good faith using those faulty forms. In 2023, the SBOE fixed its form. But Pam Bondi demands that all incomplete registrants must be updated with missing info. Hence, an explanatory demand mailer going out now from the SBOE to a first batch of 103,270 North Carolina voters.

Bryan Anderson with the help of WCU prof Chris Cooper sussed out some statistics. While the average age of a North Carolina voter is 51.4 years, the average age of the voters with incomplete registrations is 38.9 years. (Anderson reminds us that it makes sense that people who registered with faulty forms during that 10-year span -- 2013-2023 -- are likely to be younger than the average voter.)

Of the first batch of 103,270 voters who need to cure their registrations, 63% are Unaffiliated, 23% are Democrat, 14% are Republican.

Voting Rights Task Force Sues Over S 747

 

Immediately after the override of Governor Cooper's veto of S 747 this morning in the General Assembly, the Watauga County Voting Rights Task Force et al. brought suit in Wake Superior Court seeking "declarative and injunctive relief" against a section of the new law governing same-day voter registration, which the suit alleges is a "harmful provision [that] threatens to disenfranchise eligible voters without due process of law and, in some cases, based on mistakes made by third-parties over which the voter has no control."

From plantiffs' petition:

Prior to the passage of S 747, North Carolina’s same-day registrants’ votes were counted unless the post office returned two pieces of “undeliverable” mail. At worst, two undeliverable notices might result in a public challenge to the same-day registrants’ vote being counted, if a challenge was received by 5 p.m. on the day of the election. But even if a same-day registrants’ ballot was challenged, the registrant was entitled to notice and a hearing to defend their vote in the face of such a challenge.

The Undeliverable Mail Provision of S 747 prohibits Defendants from registering a same-day voter and counting that voter’s ballot if the United States Postal Service (“USPS”) returns as “undeliverable” a single notice sent to that voter (the “Address Verification Notice”) before the close of business on the business day before the canvass. Now, these voters do not receive any notice that their ballot was removed from the official count, let alone an opportunity to be heard in defense of their vote counting. Nor are they made aware that their registration was not effectuated. Instead, they are automatically disenfranchised and not registered to vote—all without being afforded any process to contest the removal of their votes from the count or their exclusion from the voter rolls.

This provision undermines North Carolina’s long-standing same-day registration process, wherein eligible North Carolinians may both register to vote and cast their ballots on the same day during the early voting period. Same-day registration has long been a popular and important way for new registrants to access the franchise. In the 2022 general election alone, 104,336 voters relied on it to exercise their right to vote. Those numbers were even higher for the most recent presidential election: in the 2020 general election, 116,065 North Carolinians voted using same-day registration.

The Watauga Voting Rights Task Force and the other plaintiffs are being represented in the suit by the Elias Group. 

Here's What To Do When Voters Don't Like Your Candidates and Hate Your Agenda

This is happening right now in Wisconsin: Judge Paul V. Malloy of the Ozaukee County Circuit Court has thrown the state into chaos by issuing an order that the Wisconsin Elections Commission forthwith and immediately remove some 215,239 registered voters state-wide from the voting rolls, individuals located disproportionately in large Democratic cities and in counties with major universities.

215,239 sinners who will be cast out of the Kingdom of Heaven. Their sin? They were flagged by a national database as having possibly moved their residence. Tsk tsk. They should re-register at the new address. More, a rightwing group decided to exercise their imaginations in pressing for the harshest penalties of the law for failing to update residence. And thereby hangs the lawsuit which led to Judge Malloy's ruling (see more below).

So the Wisconsin Elections Commission, being good stewards of citizen rights, mailed -- snail-mailed, mind you -- in October 234,039 letters to addressees that had been picked out by the national Electronic Registration Information Center (ERIC), a multistate partnership that shares voter registration information, as possibly having moved their residences since the last election. (Some 29 states plus DeeCee belong to the ERIC network and share data. North Carolina does not belong.)

It's one of ERIC's specialities -- identifying people who may have moved -- whether just upstairs to a bigger apartment or to a different state. Place of residence is the great and universal touchstone for ballot access, and people who move need to re-register.  That's reasonable, especially if enforcement is based on something more reliable than the accuracy of snail-mail. (And you might notice the disparity in numbers above -- 215,239 targeted for removal out of 234,039 letters sent out. That's because some 18,800 voters did return confirmation of their residence. The numbers were likely rounded up by Mark Joseph Stern, but thank gawd for his detailed reporting!)

Those Elections Commission letters were based on addresses of record, which were in turn based on hand-written voter information (often illegibly scrawled) on voter registration forms, which is in turn entered into a massive database by human technicians who are, yes, only human. Small errors can lead to big consequences. 234,039 letters went out into The Great Silence, bearing possible penalties for silence.

The Elections Commission planned -- until they got sued by a conservative group -- to spend the next 12 to 24 months "working with local officials to assess individuals who do not respond to the notice. If officials make an 'individualized determination' that there is 'sufficient reliable information' that a voter has moved, their registration will be 'deactivated' ” (Stern). In other words, the commission was going to investigate each case before removing anyone, and in any event, no action would come until after the 2020 primary election (at least).

The Lawsuit That Judge Malloy Exploited

That was the Wisconsin Elections Commission plan before the Bradley Foundation, which reportedly "bankrolls reactionary causes," saw an opening and filed a lawsuit in deep red Ozaukee County before a Republican judge. Its lawsuit was based on a complaint filed by another reactionary group, the Wisconsin Institute for Law and Liberty. The institute cited a state law which says: “Upon receipt of reliable information” that a voter has moved, the commission (or municipal clerk) must send them a letter saying, in short, “We think you have a new address.” If the voter does not respond “within 30 days of the date the notice is mailed,” they must be deactivated.

That language depends entirely on the words reliable information. The Wisconsin Institute for Law and Liberty claimed that the ERIC "Movers Report" constitutes reliable information -- no need for Wisconsin Elections Commission investigation -- and Judge Malloy bought that argument. Along with the argument that the commission shirked its duties by not removing those 200,000+ people on the 30-day mark from their October letter. Thirty days, long expired. The judge was delighted to say his hands were tied. Jigs up for voters who don't answer their mail.

The Elections Commission is fighting back, claiming irreparable harm and the potential for 2020 chaos as would-be voters find out at the last minute that they're no longer registered. Plus the suit is based on the capricious and arbitrary claim that ERIC's data-mining constitutes "reliable information" under Wisconsin statute. The Elections Commission argues that its own mandated responsibility to maintain voter rolls can't be outsourced to non-state agencies.

The commission will appeal, but everyone is pointing out that it'll eventually land with the Wisconsin Supreme Court, which is 5-2 majority conservative. The conservative argument against "irreparable harm": Wisconsin allows election-day registration. The only problem: same-day registration also requires proof of residence, and most voters don't carry around electric bills in their pockets.

Watauga BOE Squelches Eric Eller's Motion to Refer Disallowed Provisional Voters for Investigation for "Fraud"

[This post partially answers in the affirmative the question asked earlier: "Is Watauga BOE Member Eric Eller Just Nathan Miller With Hair?"

So Republican members of the Watauga Board of Elections -- Chair Nancy Owen and fellow member Eric Eller -- voted this morning to refer over 200 would-be voters on November 6 to the State Board of Elections for the possible crime of election fraud. That motion died 2-2.

Democratic member Jane Anne Hodges had pointed out that the local election officials have always acted in accordance with State Board of Elections -- specifically their instructions to give any person requesting it a provisional ballot (instrux consistent with Federal law, incidentally). The would-be voter signs an affidavit affirming "I am a duly registered voter." As always happens in such cases, that would-be voter is subsequently researched to determine whether there is a proper registration on file in Watauga. If not, that ballot will not count. Over 200 of some 500+ total provisional ballots did not count. But Eric Eller thinks -- and thinks strongly -- that the signature alone constitutes potential voter fraud.

"Potential" is the operative word. It would be fraud if the voter knowingly made a false statement. Most of those 200+ disallowed ballots were cast by young people who had filled out voter registration forms in Watauga County but listed their residential addresses at the homes they recently moved away from -- where their parents live -- and did not understand enough about the process to know that they were in fact registering to vote in some other county.

Eric Eller wants those knuckleheads prosecuted for fraud. So does Nancy Owen.

Democratic member Marv Williamsen said he didn't want to participate in any aggression toward these would-be voters -- did they knowingly do anything wrong. Williamsen didn't like what message that would send to all young voters -- "We'll get you if you make a mistake trying to exercise your right to vote." Williamsen especially didn't want to go there in the current national churn of alleged "voter suppression."

At the mention of those words, Eric Eller went ballistic. He was shouting "no voter suppression, no voter suppression," but an 18-year-old who blundered into a polling place last November 6, thinking he was registered in Watauga County and who just wanted to participate in the national elections -- that would-be voter might disagree about the implied intimidation.

To be referred for possible prosecution for fraud -- when your vote didn't count anyway -- looks like very direct voter suppression to me.

The Voter Reg. Group Blocked From High Point Univ. Was a Conservative Org.

Meet Leigh Thomas, the chair of the High Point University Young Republicans, who since yesterday has become the poster child for voter suppression. She was videotaped laying down the law to campus security that she did not -- positively did not -- want any voter registration happening on her campus:

“I understand the registration process. I’m just not sure if this is something I would want to have on this High Point University campus, the registration of voting."

The video made the rounds yesterday morning on social media before it was made "private," but it soon reemerged and has become ever more famous.

Chad Nance at Camel City Dispatch has done due diligence in tracking down the agencies and personalities revealed here, and it's fairly amazing to discover that the independent voter registration effort at High Point University was being conducted by Turning Point USA, a conservative group promoting Republican policies.

Nance extrapolates the reasoning non-thinking process employed by Young Republican Leigh Thomas, who apparently has the power at High Point University to order campus security to do things to her liking:

So what is behind this ding-bat decision? Has Thomas gotten a crazy notion that “Only liberals like registering voters” somewhere in the un-plumbed depths of this young lady’s mind? Is the state party apparatus so terrified of the mythological youth vote that they have ordered college Republican groups to do whatever is in their power to make sure that no new voters are minted on university grounds? Has Thomas been so conditioned by repetitive exposure to propaganda geared toward convincing Republicans that the entire elections system is rife with fraud, registering voters might be a little gay, and a small group of elites with a right to vote based on economic status might be a pretty good idea down the line?

Is this spill-over from the very real efforts by the North Carolina GOP establishment to clamp down on and marginalize truly grassroots activists and candidates? ...

Young Republicans take orders from up the food-chain, and they've been told that registering their age group is just bad for maintaining Republican power.

We don't know from nothing about High Point University, but Chad Nance seems authoritative in his characterization of that campus:

HPU is the school where rich people send their dumb kids who can’t cut it at elite schools. They’ve spent millions of dollars transforming themselves into a Walt Disney version of a university where the one-percenters can install their kids, apparently safe in the knowledge that some of them won’t let crazy notions about democracy and doubting the growing American oligarchy get into their pretty, little heads.

Well, okay then. Perhaps that explains one of the more bizarre moments in the 2014 election cycle in North Carolina, where the weak grow strong and the strong grow great.

Americans for Prosperity Working Overtime To Spark a Criminal Investigation

Americans for Prosperity, a Koch Bros. enterprise, sent out hundreds -- maybe thousands, maybe tens of thousands ... because who knows but AFP? -- "official application forms" for voter registration that are riddled with misinformation. Raleigh N&O details all the mistakes.

The State Board of Elections says that "hundreds" of people have called to complain. The general rule of thumb: if one person calls, there are ten people who didn't call but who got the mailing.

Who was targeted? The answer to that question would answer the other burning question ... were the errors a deliberate attempt to thwart voter registration or just Head Office stupidity?

Naturally, Americans for Prosperity has clammed up. Billionaires aren't in the habit of answering questions from mere peons.

Disenfranchising Students in Virginia

Some North Carolina wag in the 19th century, familiar with the sometimes inherent snobbery of both Virginia and South Carolina, referred to our state as "a vale of humility between two mountains of conceit."

In Virginia's case, 134 county voter registrars know exactly what sort of people should be allowed to vote. College students very often do not pass the test. In a state with 161 colleges and 483,159 students, the conceit of the registrars is patently unconstitutional.

We had already heard about the Montgomery County registrar, Randall Wertz, who issued official warnings to Virginia Tech students in Blacksburg that, by registering, "you have declared your independence from your parents and can no longer be claimed as a dependent on their income tax filings .... If you have a scholarship attached to your former residence, you could lose this funding." The first statement is just an outright lie: the right to vote has absolutely nothing to do with being a dependent on your parents' IRS forms, and the second statement seems to give away its own falsity with that strategically placed verb "could." You could also learn to fly off the roof of your dorm.

Worse is Juanita Pitchford, the registrar for Fredericksburg, where the University of Mary Washington is located. Pitchford, the most blueblood of Virginia registrars, requires that all students interview with her before registering, "so she can decide on a case-by-case basis whether they can vote."

Are you kidding me? No, evidently not. Reminds us of the situation in Boone 40 years ago, when virtually the only bank writing mortgages for houses required an interview with a bank officer whose first question probed which church you were a member of.

The Supreme Court in 1979 settled the issue of student registration and voting rights. A college student may register and vote where he/she is in school, even if the place of residence is a dorm with Green Day blasting out of every room.

Students in North Carolina, thank God, are not being harassed like students in Virginia. That will change if Pat McCrory is elected governor and the Republican Party takes over control of our 100 county boards of election. There will be little or no accommodation of students.

You betcha.

Montgomery Co., Va., Voter Registrar Tries to Keep Students From Registering

It happens somewhere in this country every election cycle ... some local voting official, alarmed that college students might actually take their voting rights seriously, issues a stern warning that IF college students register in his/her county, they're be subjected to waterboarding or something worse.

The Montgomery County registrar, seeing a huge uptick in registration by Virginia Tech students, issued a press release threatening students that they might no longer be claimed as dependents on their parents' tax returns -- "a statement the Internal Revenue Service says is incorrect" -- or that they could lose scholarships or coverage under their parents' car and health insurance, another whopper.

Let's get this straight: a 1979 Supreme Court decision determined that college students can register and vote wherever they're going to school. End of story.

There are no dire consequences to choosing to exercise this right.

Deluge Coming

Bob Hall of Democracy North Carolina is warning of voter gridlock in North Carolina come November 4 -- based on statewide voter registration growing to nearly 5.9 million as of last week. Hall is urging county boards of election to add more early voting sites and to have extra staff and voting machines ready for election day itself. Otherwise ... expect long lines and "a horrible traffic jam."

The Watauga County Board of Elections is ahead of the game. There will be five early voting sites in Watauga, instead of the usual two, and we understand that the one at the Boone mall will offer extended hours into the evening. Early voting will begin on Thursday, October 16.

Incidentally, "Democrats have added eight times as many voters as Republicans since the beginning of the year, Hall said. He noted that there are fewer registered Republicans today in 15 counties than in January, including Durham and Orange."