Another Flip: Wisconsin Supreme Court Seat Goes To a Democrat

Gov. Scott Walker

Milwaukee Judge Rebecca Dallet easily won election to the Wisconsin Supreme Court last night (56% to 44%) over incumbent Republican Judge Michael Screnock who had portrayed himself in TV ads as a “rule of law” conservative endorsed by the National Rifle Association.

Screnock had been appointed to the high court by Governor Scott Walker.

In a March debate with Screnock, Dallet hit him for advocating "on behalf of gerrymandering, rigging our maps in our state, which has been found to be unconstitutional.” She also pointed out that he had a history of physically protesting abortion clinics: “He has stood in front of women’s ability to access their lawful rights, and he’s been arrested twice for doing that.”

Democrats have not won a state Supreme Court seat since 1995, and even with Dallet's win last night, there is still a 4-3 Republican majority on the court.

If You're a Republican Governor, You'd Be a Fool To Ignore the Early Warnings

"Are you ready for more Trump in 2018,"
VP Mike Pence asks Republican governors
gathered in Austin

The very recent gubernatorial elections in Virginia and New Jersey, not to mention the revolt of Republican suburbs everywhere, seems to have caught the attention of members of the Republican Governors Association. Jonathan Martin and Alexander Burns published leaked behind-the-scenes info from the recent meeting of the guvs in Austin, and it makes for fun reading.

But first, some hard facts. In 2018, these are the states with retiring or term-limited incumbent Republican governors. In other words, these will be open seats:

Florida
Georgia
Idaho
Kansas
Maine
Michigan
Nevada
New Mexico
Ohio
Oklahoma
South Dakota
Tennessee
Wyoming

In 2018, these states have Republican incumbents who are eligible for re-election (and coincidentally, just as eligible for defeat):

Alabama
Arizona
Arkansas
Illinois
Iowa
Maryland
Massachusetts
Nebraska
New Hampshire
South Carolina
Texas
Vermont
Wisconsin

By my count that's some 26 governorships the Republicans have to run for with their president under water with the public. Hence, the big question in Austin among the state executives, according to Martin and Burns -- "Do we Trump, or do we not Trump?"

"A sense of foreboding hung over the group’s gathering" as governors contemplated having that punctured parade float into their states to campaign for them or for their anointed replacements. Gov. Bill Haslam of Tennessee says no definitely not (and he might have added, "I told you so," because he didn't vote for Trump last fall): “I do think Virginia was a wake-up call. There’s a pretty strong message there. When Republicans lose white married women, that’s a strong message.”

An unspecified but apparently significant number of Republican governors "from agricultural and auto-producing states" warned that Trump's bombing of the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) could/would hurt Republican chances in their states.

Another smart warning, based on the dismal failure of Republican Ed Gillespie in Virginia: You can't (as in cannot) embrace Trump’s divisive messages on immigration, crime, and Confederate “heritage” but dance around whether you actually support Trump. Trumpism without Trump does not work.

“You can’t be halfway in and halfway out,” said Gov. Phil Bryant of Mississippi.

Gov. Haslam: “If you try to wear somebody else’s clothes, they never fit."

Gov. Paul LePage, the wannabe Donald Trump of Maine and a fierce supporter of the prez, was one of the few governors who would say publicly that Republicans should “absolutely” stump with the president in 2018. “He is the leader of our country. He is the leader of our country, and we should respect our leader.”

Vice President Mike Pence came down to Austin to represent Trump and pump up support for him. He got "restrained applause from a lobbyist-heavy audience." Later, "he used a private meeting with the governors on Wednesday to tell them that the White House stood ready to help their campaigns, according to Republican officials who were in the room and who spoke on the condition of anonymity to reveal private conversations."

Gee, thanks. But on second thought, no thanks.

Gov. Gary Hogan of Maryland and Gov. Scott Walker of Wisconsin "candidly told Mr. Pence that they hoped the administration would prove collaborative and respect the wishes of governors who want Mr. Trump to stay away."

Senate Health Insurance Bill BAD for Both Republican and Democratic States

Gov. Brian Sandoval, Nevada

Even Republican Gov. Scott Walker of Wisconsin thinks the Senate repeal/replace bill is wrong-headed. Walker's negative reaction, from an arch conservative's perspective, might have some influence on Wisconsin's arch conservative Republican Senator Ron Johnson, who so far says he's undecided on how he'll vote.

Republican Gov. Phil Scott of Vermont, who won election last November even as Hillary Clinton carried his state by more than 20 percentage points, said the bill could cripple the health care system in Vermont. “We’ve expanded Medicaid, and even a small tweak could have a devastating impact on us as a state,” Mr. Scott said. “We’ve made great strides at protecting the most vulnerable and I believe, in its present form, this would not be good for Vermont.”

Republican Gov. Matt Bevin of Kentucky attacked the new Senate bill from the right. He's mad because Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell didn't eliminate two taxes on high earners. He huffed and puffed and claimed that there had been an “understanding that those two taxes were going to be gone.” Bevin is following the lead of Kentucky Sen. Rand Paul, who's already announced that he'll vote no. Plus Bevin has no love for Mitch McConnell, against whom he ran as a Tea Party insurgent in the 2014 Republican primary.

VP Mike Pence showed up at the National Governor's Conference and hilariously extolled the McConnell bill as "a rescue mission," even as he "also acknowledged that the proposal would significantly change the population that receives health care coverage through [Medicaid]." Hypocrisy watch! Pence, while he was recently governor of Indiana, accepted an expansion of Medicaid under Obamacare.

The governor who possibly holds all the power in the ultimate defeat of the new Senate bill, Republican Brian Sandoval of Nevada, remains steadfastly opposed, despite heavy lobbying from Trump himself, who apparently called Sandoval to pressure him to get his Republican Senator Dean Heller off the fence to support the bill. Sandoval and Heller stood together in opposing the first version of the bill.

Perhaps phone calls from Trump aren't having the desired effect any more (if they ever did), because the president obviously doesn't even understand what's in the bill, what its effect will be, or what he promised earlier that the Senate's repeal/replace law will directly contradict. Who cares what Trump wants? He's an idiot on policy.

The Dam Has a Big New Crack in It

Yesterday Marco Rubio, who's running for vice president on somebody's else ticket, said:

“I … don’t believe that your sexual preferences are a choice for the vast and enormous majority of people. And, in fact, the bottom line is that I believe that sexual preference is something people are born with.”

That's not conservative orthodoxy. That's conservative heresy.

Rubio will make an attractive running mate for Scott Walker, who admitted yesterday -- what was in Republican water bottles yesterday? -- that he'd attended a gay wedding reception.

That dam is breaking! (Marco Rubio is still an empty suit, IMO, which makes him perfect for a vice presidential run.)

Sen. Hagan has a "Third Way"

Sen. Kay Hagan is honorary co-chair of the new-ish blue dog group, Third Way.

Third Way has THE PLAN for Democrats:

Give up on everything you've ever stood for, including Social Security and health care for all, and follow the Republicans into the abyss.

Tighten your friggin' belts, citizens, 'cause the Corporations/Banksters are feeling peckish (which is to say, "deprived" and "put upon").

Par-TAY! Let's all model ourselves on Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker.

Thursday Yakety-Yak

1. On Monday, while a massed demonstration of labor, civil rights and religious groups rallied in front of the General Assembly in Raleigh in favor of collective bargaining for North Carolina's public employees, a counter-protest of Teahadists and conservatives attempted to shout them down. "Randy Dye of Pittsboro, one of the counterprotesters, said the network of tea party and other conservative groups heard about the rally only 24 hours earlier, and didn't have enough time to mount a larger presence. 'We wanted to face off with them,' he said." (Raleigh N&O)

2. In debate Wednesday on the NC Senate floor over Senate Bill 8 (lifting the cap on charter schools), its main sponsor, Sen. Jerry Tillman (Montgomery and Randolph counties), revealed the depth of his lack of feeling for poor kids. When Sen. Josh Stein (Wake) asked Tillman about the problems created for some families because charters are not required to offer transportation nor free lunches for poor children, like all public schools, Tillman said the following: "It’s certainly okay if they don’t go there [the charter school]. They can go to their public schools. They can get their free and reduced price lunch. And they can do that. But the charter school itself and the commission must decide what they can do and when they can do it financially. And that’s where we are now and that’s where we’re gonna’ be and I’m certainly for that.” Let 'em eat chalk dust! (Laura Leslie)

3. Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker, yesterday in Madison: "I take phone calls all the time. The bottom line is, the things I said are things I said publicly all along." Got it, Guv! Thanks.