Wednesday, July 07, 2004

Memo to GWB: If You're Even in the Polls, You're Behind

Charlie Cook of The National Journal offers a warning to the Rovians that an incumbent president who remains essentially tied in the polls with his challenger is actually losing, and Cook offers compelling logic to support that analysis. (Thanks to Ron for the link!) " incumbent who is basically tied with a challenger at 45 percent, give or take 3 points, is actually in much graver danger of losing the election than a superficial look at the numbers suggests." And Cook also essentially dismissses the potential Nader "spoiler" effect -- "given that Nader isn't the Green Party's nominee this time, most observers expect Nader's vote total to shrink [below the actual 2.7 percent he got in 2000] -- which would likely benefit Kerry."

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