Blue Skies, Smilin' At Me!

Eileen Higgins, center
Photo Sam Navarro, Miami Herald

Democrats have won three consecutive special elections in Miami-Dade County (Florida duh) over the past nine months.

“The blue wave is not coming. The blue wave came,” said Jesse Manzano-Plaza, a veteran Republican political consultant who was reacting to the latest coup, the election of a Democratic woman in previously and dependably Republican Little Havana, to a county commission seat. 

Not only a Democrat but a non-Hispanic woman who jokingly referred to herself as "La Gringa."

Meet Eileen Higgins. She's a young 53, a well-off marketing executive who once worked for the State Department. But she famously likes to ride the bus. And she's fluent in Spanish.

"Ms. Higgins’s win cemented the belief held by Democrats — and, privately, by many Republicans" — that the 27th Congressional District, which includes all of Eileen Higgins’s county commission district, will likely also flip red-to-blue this November (Patricia Mazzei). The seat is currently held by Republican Ileana Ros-Lehtinen, a Cuban-American who has publicly broken with Twitterman over immigration and called him "bully." She publicly opted six months into his presidency not to run for reelection. 

People speculate why. Not because she's afraid of Trump supporters. More likely she quickly took the pulse of her constituents -- who are majority registered Democrats after all, and who had good cause

Donna Shalala

being turned off by Trump, and who voted decisively for Hillary in 2016. Ros-Lehtinen saw the trend, the unpopularity of Trumpism in Little Havana, and stared at her inevitable defeat. Better to simply retire from the field. And pray a runaway golf cart takes out the president. 

Patricia Mazzei writes an interesting article about whether the win for Eileen Higgins also signals something deeper and more significant in the Cuban community -- that it's bindings to the national Republican Party have frayed and are giving way to something else. The Democrat considered a shoo-in for Ros-Lehtinen's seat is also non-Hispanic, Donna Shalala (yes, that Donna Shalala, the former Clinton administration health and human services secretary and more recently the president of the University of Miami). If (when) elected in November, she'll be at 77 probably the oldest person ever elected for the first time to the US House.

A New Political Party? Where Will the Refugees Go?

When one of the two major political parties gets in trouble, there's always talk of "third party." It's happening now to the Republicans. Jeremy Peters is out this morning with a piece in the NYTimes, wondering if Trump's about to brand a new property political party. (What shall we call it? "The Trump Party"? Or just "Trump"? "Trumpists"? "Trumpeters"? (In fairness, probably should be named for Bannon, its brain. How about The Bannonarians? Or how about White Nation?)

Bannon intends to make it happen. He's got his "weapons" back, he's leveled on his targets, and he's blasting away at the Republican establishment. McConnell, bam! Ryan, boom! He intends to take them and others down. Trump is the party now. You cannot oppose Trump. There are consequences.

Sen. Bob Corker

Like for Sen. Bob Corker of Tennessee. There's a rumor Bannon's prepared to support a primary opponent against Corker. Trump has attacked him on Twitter. Why? Corker publicly and on camera said that Trump had not demonstrated the “stability” or “competence” necessary to effectively lead the nation.

Now Corker is very publicly wondering if he'll even run for his Senate seat. It would only be his third term. He seems smart, level-headed, fair (though I don't prefer his votes). But he stood up to The Leader, and that makes Corker an untouchable.

Didn't Bannon just say on some Sunday interview show that Gov. Chris Christie got pushed out of Trump's inner circle because Christie didn't react well to the "Access Hollywood" tape? You remember, you do -- Trump struttin' in the locker room for the much younger Billy Bush. For the record -- and because I think we're mature enough now -- here is the unedited, unexpurgated transcription of part of what Trump bragged to Billy Bush:

“I moved on her and I failed – I’ll admit it. I did try and fuck her, she was married. And I moved on her very heavily. In fact, I took her out furniture shopping. She wanted to get some furniture. I said: ‘I’ll show you where they have some nice furniture.’ I moved on her like a bitch, but I couldn’t get there. And she was married. Then all of a sudden I see her, she’s now got the big phoney tits and everything. She’s totally changed her look.”

Christie had faced a camera back when that tape came out and said he couldn't support Trump unless he apologized. Trump didn't apologize, and Christie "didn't make the plane."

You know who else is gone who just coincidentally also denounced Trump over the "pussy-grabbing"? Jason Chaffetz of Utah. He said at the time, "I'm out. I can no longer in good conscience endorse this person for president." Strangely, "I'm out" proved prophetic in another way. Chaffetz left Congress suddenly, earlier this year. One of the most active and ambitious of House Republican conservatives ... retires mid-term. That's strange. There's been no hint that Trump/Bannon bullied him, but makes you wonder.

And look at the other battlefield casualties -- representatives of what may eventually be called "The Republican Party" again, refugees from Trumpland who finally got fed up with the wrongheadedness, the ignorance, and the bullying. I count four House Republicans, three in the last five days, who've backed out of running for reelection, four members who would have had a decided edge for reelection, but who are fed up: 

Ileana Ros-Lehtinen of Florida. When she announced her retirement back in April, she made a point of insisting, in front of cameras, that she’s not leaving Congress "because of her differences" with President Trump or with the direction of the Trump administration. But note: Ros-Lehtinen has been "one of the most vocal moderate Republican critics of the White House and the conservative House Freedom Caucus. Ros-Lehtinen, who said she didn’t vote for Trump last year, has disagreed with the president on deportations, transgender rights and budget cuts, and with House Republicans on healthcare" (Miami Herald).

Rep. Dave Trott (R-Mich.). Trott just announced yesterday. He's always been a so-called moderate. He's rich, from a suburban district that leans Republican, but he's had a "rocky relationship" with Trump. After Trump's equivocation about the "many fine people" who had associated themselves with neo-Fascism in Charlottesville, Trott said Trump should perhaps "stick to golf." Trott ... gone, after only two terms. He would have had the incumbent's advantage next year, unless he got primaried. (Dum-dum-DUMB)

Rep. Charlie Dent (R-Pa.). Dent, who's been a favorite on-camera interview target for MS-NBC, has been an outspoken Trump critic. His retirement statement (in part): “I’ve worked to instill

stability, certainty and predictability in Washington. I’ve fought to fulfill the basic functions of government, like keeping the lights on and preventing default. Regrettably, that has not been easy given the disruptive outside influences that profit from increased polarization and ideological rigidity that leads to dysfunction, disorder and chaos” (Pittsburgh Post-Gazette).

Dave Reichert (R-Wash.) Reichert is no Republican spring chicken. He's 67. He's represented his Washington State district for seven terms -- 14 years. But he decided it was time to exit. He had faced raucous town hall crowds in August, and Democrats were already lining up to battle each other in a primary for the privilege of knocking Reichert's lights out in 2018.

As the Republican Party splinters, there'll be more sudden retirements. Watch for it.